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The DIBS Method... No Free Lunch continues

  • #7,141
  • Mar 20, 2009 12:12pm Mar 20, 2009 12:12pm
Quoting jarroo
I wouldn't qualify what you have on your charts as "Indicators", M4N. I would call them "Identifiers".
Your observation is accurate. MT4 calls every program that is loaded on the chart an indicator. That has led to the battle over indicators vs. no indicators which is just plain stupid, IMHO.

"Indicators" come in different varieties:

  1. Formula based indicators like MACD, CCI, RSI, etc.
  2. Gauge type indicators that show things like range, distance traveled, difference between 2 prices, etc...
  3. Plotting indicators that place support, resistance, trend lines, etc... on the chart.
  4. Multimeter indicators that display information for all of the chart periods on one chart.
  5. Multipair indicators that display information for multiple pairs on one chart.
  6. Dashboard indicators that display information for multiple pairs over multiple chart periods on one chart.

Each type has its use. But, if you do not know how to trade, none of them are going to be much help.

TRO
  • #7,142
  • Mar 20, 2009 12:17pm Mar 20, 2009 12:17pm
Quoting jarroo
Price Action showed the way for me days before FOMC on the CAD and many other pairs. The CAD trade was good for over 300 pips for me and I'm still in the trade with a partial position. The critical factor is the quailty of the setup. Which I will show on a DIBS trade.
Bottom line is you got lucky on the FOMC announcement, IMHO. The reason I say that is conventional wisdom dictates you sit on the sideline before major news releases and I know you know that. Price could have swung either way and I know you know that, too. You took a calculated risk and I bet you didn't "bet the ranch" on this trade. If you really believed in "price action foretelling the future", you would have bet the ranch and cleaned up. But, as a seasoned trader, you know better. Is this assessment not accurate?
TRO
  • #7,143
  • Mar 20, 2009 1:44pm Mar 20, 2009 1:44pm
Quoting Money4Nothing
Bottom line is you got lucky on the FOMC announcement, IMHO. The reason I say that is conventional wisdom dictates you sit on the sideline before major news releases and I know you know that. Price could have swung either way and I know you know that, too. You took a calculated risk and I bet you didn't "bet the ranch" on this trade. If you really believed in "price action foretelling the future", you would have bet the ranch and cleaned up. But, as a seasoned trader, you know better. Is this assessment not accurate?

A high quality Price Action setup is pretty close to a sure thing in my book. No set up is 100%, 90% maybe, but never 100%. Proper Money Management should always be used in any trading, no matter what method or system you use. "Betting the ranch" is for the fool hearty.

If a high probabilty, A+ PA setup is what you call being "lucky", then I'm a very lucky man. Sure, the first Fridays of the month and interest rate announcements I will stay out of entering a trade, again depending of what type of trade I'm presented with.

I don't follow News very closely. News is Price and Price is News.

Jim
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #7,144
  • Mar 20, 2009 2:11pm Mar 20, 2009 2:11pm
Quoting jarroo
A high quality Price Action setup is pretty close to a sure thing in my book. No set up is 100%, 90% maybe, but never 100%. Proper Money Management should always be used in any trading, no matter what method or system you use. "Betting the ranch" is for the fool hearty.

If a high probabilty, A+ PA setup is what you call being "lucky", then I'm a very lucky man. Sure, the first Fridays of the month and interest rate announcements I will stay out of entering a trade, again depending of what type of trade I'm presented with.

I don't follow...
Within the scope of DIBS, which is what this thread is about, I still say "you were lucky". This is not meant to be a derogatory remark towards you. It's obvious you have earned respect in the FF community. However, all we do is take the DIBS signal and enter accordingly. What happens next is up to the market. All we do, as traders, is manage the money and risk.
TRO
  • #7,145
  • Mar 20, 2009 5:55pm Mar 20, 2009 5:55pm
Quoting Money4Nothing
Within the scope of DIBS, which is what this thread is about, I still say "you were lucky". This is not meant to be a derogatory remark towards you. It's obvious you have earned respect in the FF community. However, all we do is take the DIBS signal and enter accordingly. What happens next is up to the market. All we do, as traders, is manage the money and risk.
Well said, M4N. No offence taken at all.

I would like to incorporate more key points of Price Action into a DIBS trade. Without taking away the heart of the DIBS method. I do believe that not all DIBS trade are created equal. If we can weed out some bad setups, all the better.

I look forward to more of your input on this thread.

Jim
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #7,146
  • Mar 20, 2009 6:39pm Mar 20, 2009 6:39pm
[quote=Money4Nothing;2618893]Bottom line is you got lucky on the FOMC announcement, IMHO. The reason I say that is conventional wisdom dictates you sit on the sideline before major news releases and I know you know that. Price could have swung either way and I know you know that, too.

Well said. Conventionally news can create rediculous volitility and swings. I for one dont pay to much attention to the news because regardless of whether it is good or bad, as novice traders or even semi pro, we tend to get the info last. Some of the time the news is good and it goes the wrong way IE good news for dollar but reverses, sometimes it doesnt move at all (Results where expected and priced in earlier).

I trade the setups and if I get 1 before the news I still will trade it. Am I reckless for doing so? Some will argue yes, others no. At the end of the day of there is a good setup I will accept the risk, as I do when I place any trade. If, as in the case of the FOMC release, I am on the right side of the move then good for me, I am in when the markets doubled the ADR and my account is better for it. If i get SL'ed that is part of trading and I move on without thought to the next setup and opportunity.

When I log into FF i come straight here, seldom do i look at the calender for the day. I have in the back of my mind the days when the most volitile News is on (payroll, Int rates etc) but I will take my trade anytime (preferable earlier London) and anywhere (usually in my study room wishing it was italy or the likes lol).

Take care all and good luck monday
  • #7,147
  • Mar 20, 2009 7:16pm Mar 20, 2009 7:16pm
Thank you, jarroo. It's nice to have a polite, adult debate without the nastiness.

I really don't have anything to add. I am no guru. I don't have enough money to move the market. All I can do is trade.

Peter Crown has made an excellent presentation and has now offered statistics to back it up. That's good enough for me. Thanks again.
TRO
  • #7,148
  • Mar 20, 2009 8:52pm Mar 20, 2009 8:52pm
Quoting jarroo
Price Action showed the way for me days before FOMC on the CAD and many other pairs. The CAD trade was good for over 300 pips for me and I'm still in the trade with a partial position. The critical factor is the quailty of the setup. Which I will show on a DIBS trade.
Nice to see you around Jim!

Got that CAD dive too...

Weekly Bearish OB, huge Resistance Zone.... still in the trade (1/2 position)...

Cheers!

Have a Nice weekend!

HT
Many share my views with me. But I don't share them with them...
  • #7,149
  • Mar 20, 2009 9:27pm Mar 20, 2009 9:27pm
Quoting fugly
appreciate your reply Ron thats what I love about ff ppl are always helping each other

My basic question is when PC says I have a way of knowing which BIBS trade is more likely to be successful does he mean

1)Simply By virtue of taking all the DIBS trades in the time period and accordance with the rules I mentioned, as in this is the way I know which DIBS trades are more likely to succeed.

or

2)In addition to this (within these trades) I have a further method/filter of knowing which DIBS will succeed and will take only those trades....

My first post on FF although I have been trading PA strategies for a number of years. This is one of the first threads here that I have looked at and was immediately struck by the elegance of Peters approach. These are important thoughts you have fugly but I wonder if its impertinent of me to put it in a different light. I have spent a very happy 2hrs so far this morning going through 3 months of data by hand from cable. The result of that? No surprise to you guys that I found the approach in its raw form more interesting than anything else I have seen for a long time. Secondly, some obvious possibilities and questions to improve the approach. They included scale in/out, use of supply demand areas to manage a trade, time of entry, consistency with the longer term trend etc. After all there are not many things that might improve it. I am not an indicator person myself but if something gave me an edge I would definitely fling it up there. My point? Well personally I need to demo this extensively, then look to trade it live, then see if it can be improved. If you have done the first 2 Fugly shouldnt you now be taking the last step always ensuring you keep comparison data with the original model. Nothing wrong in you asking where others are at but whether they think it can or should be improved or not shouldnt stop from looking if thats what you feel should happen next. Certainly if over the coming months I find improvements or difficulties I will fling them up here for comment. Looking forward to interacting more here on the thread
SP 'think in probabilities'
  • #7,150
  • Mar 20, 2009 9:34pm Mar 20, 2009 9:34pm
I am just a little guy and I don't have any grandiose ideas about my abilities. There are traders who are smarter. The best I can do is to hope to make a steady profit. I would never be so arrogant to think I can improve something before I learned it inside and out. Perhaps after trading a method profitably for at least 2 years live, then and only then would I humbly offer a suggestion to improve it. I think trading is like chess or martial arts: A moment to learn and a lifetime to master.
TRO
  • #7,151
  • Mar 20, 2009 10:21pm Mar 20, 2009 10:21pm
Quoting HouseTrader
Nice to see you around Jim!

Got that CAD dive too...

Weekly Bearish OB, huge Resistance Zone.... still in the trade (1/2 position)...

Cheers!

Have a Nice weekend!

HT
Hi House. I been catching up on the thread. You have made some great post. I'll be here Sunday night. (EST)
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #7,152
  • Edited 5:47pm Mar 21, 2009 5:23pm | Edited 5:47pm
Could this help?

http://i41.tinypic.com/25iud4x.gif
TRO
  • #7,153
  • Mar 21, 2009 7:23pm Mar 21, 2009 7:23pm
Quoting Money4Nothing

Have I altered DIBS? My alteration is that I use the most recent session open to determine if I should trade long or short. I am usually asleep when London opens so I will defer to the NY session open. If I trade the Asian market, I defer to those opens. I set a TP that has a R/R of 1.5 to 1. That's when I will start to scale out.
So far DIBS has been a great system for me but its taking a toll on my mind. I'm having trouble staying up all night trading, but I force myself to do it because it's been successful. I'm curious as to how your NY sessions turn out when you defer to that open for your DIBS trades. Do you find it successful? I am going to try that little alteration this week and hopefully it brings me back into the world of daylight. Thanks M4N.
  • #7,154
  • Mar 21, 2009 7:23pm Mar 21, 2009 7:23pm
Wonder if the IBM engineer Nathan is a pseudonym for the IBM engineer Simon who was in the program Millionaire traders: Make me a trader series.
  • #7,155
  • Mar 21, 2009 8:11pm Mar 21, 2009 8:11pm
Quoting fugly
Wonder if the IBM engineer Nathan is a pseudonym for the IBM engineer Simon who was in the program Millionaire traders: Make me a trader series.
Q) What difference?

1) He Is.

2) He Isn't.

Just wondering what difference it could make at this point.
  • #7,156
  • Mar 21, 2009 8:32pm Mar 21, 2009 8:32pm
Well if he is we could perhaps contact him with a few questions about the results I don't know why he didn't just post his findings here, he read the entire thread and all inputs from the members here (lots of ppl here have put in a lot of value) benefited from everything and then went off did his own research and didn't have the courtesy to post here.

This community thrives by exchange of information members give suggestions post EA's, indicators, share results.

We're not asking for his program but least he could have done is post his findings and perhaps respond to a question or two about them.

I thought it was quite selfish. If he hadn't come here and read the entire thread and the document file and all the inputs provided it would have been ok, but he came in here benefited from everything and took off.

Sly fellow
  • #7,157
  • Mar 21, 2009 8:44pm Mar 21, 2009 8:44pm
He asked me to thank the Forex Factory site and all of the other posters, those with positive and negative opinions, because he figured, "where there is smoke there is fire." Why did he contact me to pass along the "news"? He got to the point where better money management became necessary for effective trading and wondered if I could point him in the right direction. I did. After reading the thread numerous times he's declining all the questions that would be inevitable from his posting especially since the answers would all be the same ones posted in the thread already.

Do people actually read? There is definitely a reading comprehension deficit amongst many posters. Read twice, then read again before asking.
TRO
  • #7,158
  • Mar 21, 2009 8:53pm Mar 21, 2009 8:53pm
Quoting Toddfx
He asked me to thank the Forex Factory...

Do people actually read? There is definitely a reading comprehension deficit amongst many posters. Read twice, then read again before asking.
G'donya Todd, If I read this post correctly, you are on your way to freedom.
  • #7,159
  • Mar 21, 2009 9:28pm Mar 21, 2009 9:28pm
Quoting fugly
... we could perhaps contact him with a few questions...
Please define "a few" and also how many times you expect them to be repeated.
---------
Honestly; I understand that you would expect that a question would be Asked Once & Answered Once but... that is not what occurs in reality.

The Same Question can be worded 100+ ways which {apparently} requires the same question to be asked {and answered} 100+ times.

Gotta give a guy {PC} kudos for putting up with it as long as he did.

Anyway.
Nice to meet you PC. & thanks for the additionals.

Bemac.
  • #7,160
  • Mar 22, 2009 8:21am Mar 22, 2009 8:21am
Quoting Bemac
Please define "a few" and also how many times you expect them to be repeated.
---------
Honestly; I understand that you would expect that a question would be Asked Once & Answered Once but... that is not what occurs in reality.

The Same Question can be worded 100+ ways which {apparently} requires the same question to be asked {and answered} 100+ times.

Gotta give a guy {PC} kudos for putting up with it as long as he did.

Anyway.
Nice to meet you PC. & thanks for the additionals.

Bemac.

Don't forget to give Jaroo kudos as well my friend.
Take care,
Dave
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