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  • #77,681
  • Mar 19, 2009 9:54am Mar 19, 2009 9:54am
Quoting elizo
Excellent information. Obviously a big asian boy understood yesterday that USD will worth the same than this:
Glad you found it useful. Here's another:

14:00 FX OPTIONS: EUR/USD Talk Close to a Yard of 1.40 Strikes Bought London, March 19. We have been told that the cumulative size of the 1-mth 1.4000 strikes which were bought by a Swiss bank earlier today was close to a yard. Half-a-yard was the initial estimate. Exotic option barriers are reportedly attached to the 1.3700, 1.3750 and 1.3800 levels.

Can't see myself shorting this freight train. The SNB must be so pissed.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #77,682
  • Mar 19, 2009 9:55am Mar 19, 2009 9:55am
Quoting akirax
though Im not in any longs next possible target 1.3594
Though I said was done for the week from big FOMC move I entered longs at London open and closed all at 3594...

next target at 1.3856
  • #77,683
  • Mar 19, 2009 9:56am Mar 19, 2009 9:56am
Quoting bgin2end
Nothing changes your perspective like being on the wrong side of a 700 pip move....

I have been screaming "BEAR" for a long time in these forums, but I am not sure what the US government is doing...looks like I am on the sidelines after taking a substantial loss yesterday.

Happy trading everyone - I'll see you all next week
It's never a bad thing to get away from the market for a bit when we are out of sync. The nice thing is the market will always be here and ready to give you GREEN Pips.

Have a nice relaxing weekend.
  • #77,684
  • Mar 19, 2009 10:00am Mar 19, 2009 10:00am
Quoting Patience
Glad you found it useful. Here's another:

14:00 FX OPTIONS: EUR/USD Talk Close to a Yard of 1.40 Strikes Bought London, March 19. We have been told that the cumulative size of the 1-mth 1.4000 strikes which were bought by a Swiss bank earlier today was close to a yard. Half-a-yard was the initial estimate. Exotic option barriers are reportedly attached to the 1.3700, 1.3750 and 1.3800 levels.

Can't see myself shorting this freight train. The SNB must be so pissed.
those are kind of news i like... straight cold action.
"Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication" leonardo da vinci
  • #77,685
  • Edited 10:04am Mar 19, 2009 10:00am | Edited 10:04am
Quoting cdrmaster
if you dont like the lose at 1.3100 why not buy your way outa of it...yes it may come back to it sooner or latter, but you want to trade so if you are still trading reduce your risk ....when you have a good trade close part of your bad trade but make sure you still make a profit off the good trade and thus still increasing your profit well reduceing your lose....till your lose is gone.
I wasn't at the terminal. Price was at 1.34 by the time I saw a chart. I found out what happened through a phone call. It was the perfect storm loser trade.

I have withdrawn 27% per month on average since november. If this account pops I won't be put out of business. I am being converted to the use of stop losses however, and trying to move up off the lower timeframe trades.
  • #77,686
  • Mar 19, 2009 10:01am Mar 19, 2009 10:01am
This thing is relentless
  • #77,687
  • Mar 19, 2009 10:02am Mar 19, 2009 10:02am
3718/25 may be a tough nut to crack...worth looking at the head maybe...
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #77,688
  • Mar 19, 2009 10:02am Mar 19, 2009 10:02am
Quoting Tenshi28
Sorry this might be slightly offtopic, but seeing that the market has calmed down a bit for now, I wanted to ask the more veteran traders around here a question: do you usually rely on simple moving averages or rather exponential ones? and also, what periods do you find to be more reliable for the most common time frames?

Again, sorry if this deviates a bit from the actual EUR/USD action but I'd really like to see what you guys think.
Day traders (as a general rule) trade off a 15 minute chart.

Some use MA, most use pivots... as you can tell if you are watching the action around R1.

Many traders like the 200 SMA and I use a 30-20 EMA cross to determine which side I'm on.

Hope this helps.
  • #77,689
  • Mar 19, 2009 10:03am Mar 19, 2009 10:03am
Usually Thursdays before triple witching Fridays are pretty volatile, and today has been one of those days, many pips guys!
Traders are smartasses
  • #77,690
  • Mar 19, 2009 10:08am Mar 19, 2009 10:08am
daily R1 seems doing some resistance for now...but this is a crazy dollar sell off like in december.
  • #77,691
  • Mar 19, 2009 10:10am Mar 19, 2009 10:10am
Quoting Tmac
in other words you trade with no money management........this is the best way to go broke in forex

you might was well write a check to your broker to save yourself the stress and then just go fishing

if you do not have a strict MM, VERY strict, then do not trade, you will never make it in the long run.........it really is that simple

good luck with your gambling in forex
Words of wisdom.

It's like MM.

If your using more than 5%/trade it's not if but when... you will lose.

Simple statistics.
  • #77,692
  • Mar 19, 2009 10:10am Mar 19, 2009 10:10am
Quoting Patience
Glad you found it useful. Here's another:

14:00 FX OPTIONS: EUR/USD Talk Close to a Yard of 1.40 Strikes Bought London, March 19. We have been told that the cumulative size of the 1-mth 1.4000 strikes which were bought by a Swiss bank earlier today was close to a yard. Half-a-yard was the initial estimate. Exotic option barriers are reportedly attached to the 1.3700, 1.3750 and 1.3800 levels.

Can't see myself shorting this freight train. The SNB must be so pissed.
Where do you guet that info, are you subscribed to any Reuters service?

Exactly the kind of info we used to use to extract value in the trading floor.
  • #77,693
  • Mar 19, 2009 10:12am Mar 19, 2009 10:12am
Yesterday, the Fed decided to buy longer-term U.S. government debt and purchase an additional $750 billion of agency mortgage- backed securities, a policy known as quantitative easing. The Fed decided to Pump money into the system, thinking that would "fix" all the problems. The problem with this is, the Fed does not have "spare cash" lying around, and decided on a whim to purchase and place bad debts on their balance sheets. So, were does a "cash broke" Government find extra scratch to spend. They can't if there is no extras around to be spents, so the next best thing to do is to Print New Money. When a government prints and distributes new money, they essentually flood the markets with this newly printed currency ... devaluing it across the board.

The EUR will probably be "up" in the markets for the next few weeks ... if not longer, who knows what will happen these days. As experience traders know, when a currency's valuation drops, it usually time to "stock up" on it's counter currency. As a business decision, it doesn't get any smarter than that. A hint of advise for new traders, don't bet against the trend. At the moment, the EUR will be up, and probably for some time. Unless you are a very skilled Counter-Trend Trader and/or who knows the market inside-out, I wouldn't bet against the EUR at this time. Follow the big boys ... and the Institutional/Hedge Fund players are all buying EUR (or USD as a counter-trend trade).

Trying to help where I can
  • #77,694
  • Mar 19, 2009 10:14am Mar 19, 2009 10:14am
Quoting Jhig
[font=Tahoma]Yesterday, the Fed decided to buy longer-term U.S. government debt and purchase an additional $750 billion of agency mortgage- backed securities, a policy known as quantitative easing. The Fed decided to Pump money into the system, thinking that would "fix" all the problems. The problem with this is, the Fed does not have "spare cash" lying around, and decided on a whim to purchase and place bad debts on their balance sheets. So, were does a "cash broke" Government find extra scratch to spend. They can't if there is no extras...
On the money
Traders are smartasses
  • #77,695
  • Mar 19, 2009 10:14am Mar 19, 2009 10:14am
this is like the reverse of aug 08 .. omg
  • #77,696
  • Mar 19, 2009 10:14am Mar 19, 2009 10:14am
set an exit on my long at 3117 at the same time entering a short tp for now 3500 subject to change.. sl is only 15 pips..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #77,697
  • Mar 19, 2009 10:16am Mar 19, 2009 10:16am
Quoting elizo
Where do you guet that info, are you subscribed to any Reuters service?

Exactly the kind of info we used to use to extract value in the trading floor.
No, it's DailyFX+, a handy news service provided by Thomson Reuters when you have an account with FXCM.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #77,698
  • Mar 19, 2009 10:21am Mar 19, 2009 10:21am
Quoting SmoothTrader
Two different beasts.

On the floor it was more of a poker game where you had to read people to identify what orders they were holding and their positions.

Off floor it is much more technical and you have to learn to rely on the PA more. There is no one you can look in their eyes to see the fear or greed,

With that being said, I had to learn to trade off floor and it took some time to feel comfortable with it. Now that I have, I wouldn't trade it for the world because of the freedom to trade from my home office, or on the road when I am traveling.

GREEN...
Great to get your insight as always
  • #77,699
  • Mar 19, 2009 10:22am Mar 19, 2009 10:22am
Quoting gatorinla
set an exit on my long at 3117 at the same time entering a short tp for now 3500 subject to change.. sl is only 15 pips..
hell of a little spike.. reset sl.. still in... short... picking tops is a fools game... so we will c.. tp 3500 and subject to change sl 3155 and subject to change... only did it cause r/r was pretty good
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #77,700
  • Mar 19, 2009 10:27am Mar 19, 2009 10:27am
Quoting elizo
I've worked 10 years for big banks in the FX Sales business for corporates, and my experience on this is that the volatility will stay for a long time. Lots of option books with short gamma will have to be hedged now sooner than later. I do not know how the levels are right now, but if someone has a Bloomberg terminal or a way to collect this data, it should be very interesting to know how 1m, 3m, 6m and 12m vol have moved. Even though the market is technically overbought, lots of american barriers, american digitals and so on are the way up, maybe...
1m - 18.40, 3m - 17.90, 6m - 17.80, 12m - 17.60 (all mid vol quotes ATMF)

1m 25d R/R = 0.70 (shows directional bias in market for EUR Calls over Puts)

The shorter end of curve, namely 1m and 2m have jumped by 2 vol this week, while further out there's been roughly a 1.5 vol move to the upside.

Not from BBG, but instead live from option market maker. Are you trading options in addition to spot? I used to work on a FX Options trading desk, so may well know you by name...

I don't agree that lots of option books will be short gamma. Moreover, I think that too vague a statement to base any trading decisions against.
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