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  • #77,661
  • Mar 19, 2009 8:28am Mar 19, 2009 8:28am
Quoting nms4716
Would anyone agree we are forming a double top here off of yesterday and todays rally?..does not look like a divergence. Any thoughts?

The further apart the double top or double bottom the more valid they are. The one you are referring to is just 1 hour apart
  • #77,662
  • Mar 19, 2009 8:32am Mar 19, 2009 8:32am
Quoting SerpentDove
because I had no stop at 1.3100 and wasn't prepared to close the short at 1.34

So now I'm trying to save my account.
sounds like a touch of martingal I just went long 30sl 25 ts
  • #77,663
  • Mar 19, 2009 8:33am Mar 19, 2009 8:33am
Quoting SmoothTrader
The further apart the double top or double bottom the more valid they are. The one you are referring to is just 1 hour apart
Thank you Smooth~~! What is your take from ths point? we climb higher or time to get your shorts out?
  • #77,664
  • Mar 19, 2009 8:38am Mar 19, 2009 8:38am
Quoting SerpentDove
because I had no stop at 1.3100 and wasn't prepared to close the short at 1.34

So now I'm trying to save my account.
in other words you trade with no money management........this is the best way to go broke in forex

you might was well write a check to your broker to save yourself the stress and then just go fishing

if you do not have a strict MM, VERY strict, then do not trade, you will never make it in the long run.........it really is that simple

good luck with your gambling in forex
Don't chase the market, Let the market come to you
  • #77,665
  • Mar 19, 2009 8:39am Mar 19, 2009 8:39am
Quoting nms4716
Thank you Smooth~~! What is your take from ths point? we climb higher or time to get your shorts out?

I see consolidation and choppy markets for a while.

I have a small long left on with a nice wide stop. I want to see it settle down and prove that she really wants to continue to go up.

Just my two cents and that is not to say that there aren't counter trend opportunities, but be watchful of your position.

GREEN Pips to ALL
  • #77,666
  • Mar 19, 2009 8:40am Mar 19, 2009 8:40am
Looks like a little bit of resistance at R1 (1.37) wonder what is going to happen once it break through that one!
  • #77,667
  • Mar 19, 2009 8:43am Mar 19, 2009 8:43am
ah just got nock out couldnt expect any more though
  • #77,668
  • Mar 19, 2009 8:51am Mar 19, 2009 8:51am
Quoting Charle
Looks like a little bit of resistance at R1 (1.37) wonder what is going to happen once it break through that one!
1.3701

Then anyones guess!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #77,669
  • Mar 19, 2009 8:57am Mar 19, 2009 8:57am
it's still up until 1.38 until 1.39......
The trend is your friend and you is your enemy - MJ
  • #77,670
  • Mar 19, 2009 9:02am Mar 19, 2009 9:02am
Quoting nms4716
Thank you Smooth~~! What is your take from ths point? we climb higher or time to get your shorts out?
I see the divergence, but hard to say when the banks will stop pushing it up. I'm waiting for a correction and subsequent bounce confirmation. the reflation trade is real, but can't imagine it will be a straight line up over 2009.

I'm watching 60SMA on hourly for support...
  • #77,671
  • Mar 19, 2009 9:07am Mar 19, 2009 9:07am
i think, now need correction
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  • #77,672
  • Mar 19, 2009 9:12am Mar 19, 2009 9:12am
this pair hasnt had the chance to look back much it may not.. but on the 20m chart that a beautiful 1/2 h/s shoulder .. that if this is the head now..not likely but keep it in mind..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #77,673
  • Mar 19, 2009 9:20am Mar 19, 2009 9:20am
Quoting derek
i think, now need correction
Hi Derek;
I think IF Point iv is correct;

you may see this.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Derek EURUSD 1Hr.PNG Size: 58 KB
  • #77,674
  • Mar 19, 2009 9:21am Mar 19, 2009 9:21am
Quoting Patience
12:52 EUR/USD: Asian Central Reportedly Asking in Size Through London London, March 19. The bid is holding despite a dip from levels above 1.3680 to 1.3620 as U.S names add weight to the support operation. We are also hearing that an Asian central bank has been doing the rounds in London looking for a price in size. Rumours suggest the player in question was a good buyer earlier in the day and is possibly looking again in amounts above EUR 200 mln.
Excellent information. Obviously a big asian boy understood yesterday that USD will worth the same than this:

http://historiasdelahistoria.lacocte...-higienico.jpg
  • #77,675
  • Mar 19, 2009 9:22am Mar 19, 2009 9:22am
the only certain thing in the market is the exact amount money your willing to loose,plan how to loose money in a constructive way, never hope that the unplaned loosers will come back a the breaken. cut them evils pips.
"Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication" leonardo da vinci
  • #77,676
  • Mar 19, 2009 9:31am Mar 19, 2009 9:31am
Quoting SmoothTrader
I see consolidation and choppy markets for a while.
I've worked 10 years for big banks in the FX Sales business for corporates, and my experience on this is that the volatility will stay for a long time. Lots of option books with short gamma will have to be hedged now sooner than later. I do not know how the levels are right now, but if someone has a Bloomberg terminal or a way to collect this data, it should be very interesting to know how 1m, 3m, 6m and 12m vol have moved. Even though the market is technically overbought, lots of american barriers, american digitals and so on are the way up, maybe some of them not hedged after being sold to the corp clients. I mentioned last week that the deal was to be long gamma, buying the 1.2900 straddle. Obviously, now it should be time to close that position and smile.

Very smart posts, SmoothTrader. Thanks for them.
  • #77,677
  • Mar 19, 2009 9:31am Mar 19, 2009 9:31am
Sorry this might be slightly offtopic, but seeing that the market has calmed down a bit for now, I wanted to ask the more veteran traders around here a question: do you usually rely on simple moving averages or rather exponential ones? and also, what periods do you find to be more reliable for the most common time frames?

Again, sorry if this deviates a bit from the actual EUR/USD action but I'd really like to see what you guys think.
  • #77,678
  • Mar 19, 2009 9:35am Mar 19, 2009 9:35am
Seems to me that right now bulls are still stronger than bears, Id say the chances that it will go north > sidemove > south.

http://img207.imageshack.us/img207/8350/125.jpg
  • #77,679
  • Mar 19, 2009 9:43am Mar 19, 2009 9:43am
Nothing changes your perspective like being on the wrong side of a 700 pip move....

I have been screaming "BEAR" for a long time in these forums, but I am not sure what the US government is doing...looks like I am on the sidelines after taking a substantial loss yesterday.

Happy trading everyone - I'll see you all next week
  • #77,680
  • Mar 19, 2009 9:51am Mar 19, 2009 9:51am
Quoting SerpentDove
Went long at 1.3495, too freaking bad I still have a short from 1.3100

if you dont like the lose at 1.3100 why not buy your way outa of it...yes it may come back to it sooner or latter, but you want to trade so if you are still trading reduce your risk ....when you have a good trade close part of your bad trade but make sure you still make a profit off the good trade and thus still increasing your profit well reduceing your lose....till your lose is gone.
If you need something important don't hesitate to ask someone else.....
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