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Why did you start trading and what do you expect from it? 19 replies

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Trade what you see NOT what you expect

  • #3,021
  • Mar 19, 2009 5:08am Mar 19, 2009 5:08am
Quoting nyjetfan
Anyone care to share their take on the 1HR close in about 3 mins? Right now it looks to me like we're gonna have the last two bars at odds with each other. Any thoughts on it? Anyone see any buses coming by in the near future?
I think undecided it's strugglingwith the resistance on the hour and 4 hour, we've got major news out in couple of hours so anything could happen
please DON'T copy my trades I am still learning
  • #3,022
  • Mar 19, 2009 5:16am Mar 19, 2009 5:16am
Quoting ezmystic
I think undecided it's strugglingwith the resistance on the hour and 4 hour, we've got major news out in couple of hours so anything could happen
I'd have to say pretty good chance of being rangebound for the next 90-120 minutes as we lead up to the news release. Of course that all could change in the blink of an eye with the way she moves. Testing top of the range now, will be interesting to see if she snaps back in line or breaks out.
  • #3,023
  • Mar 19, 2009 5:23am Mar 19, 2009 5:23am
Another tidbit of info that I got, perhaps from Eo, is that it's always worth remembering different people trade different timeframes.

See the small surge in price on the last hour? Well, if I was trading the hourly, and I saw the rejection of the 5 EMA as well as the candle finishing as a doji, I might pull the trigger and go long on the opening of the next candle, thus you have an influx of buyers on the hour because that's the TF they trade.
  • #3,024
  • Mar 19, 2009 5:26am Mar 19, 2009 5:26am
did anyone take a short with the flat top of that last candle against the previous 15m high?
please DON'T copy my trades I am still learning
  • #3,025
  • Mar 19, 2009 5:26am Mar 19, 2009 5:26am
Quoting daffy
Another tidbit of info that I got, perhaps from Eo, is that it's always worth remembering different people trade different timeframes.

See the small surge in price on the last hour? Well, if I was trading the hourly, and I saw the rejection of the 5 EMA as well as the candle finishing as a doji, I might pull the trigger and go long on the opening of the next candle, thus you have an influx of buyers on the hour because that's the TF they trade.
Daffy - This is an interesting point, as I was wondering if there's any "reason" to the length of the GU channeling on the 15m charts. By that I mean if people are trading 4hrs, that would give us 12 15m candles. Or is there something consistent about when most moves start (ie timeframes ending for a large group of traders). Don't think I'll ever be able to answer this question exactly, but its definitely something that piqued my interest a few days ago.

I guess this is similar to confluence of different systems/approaches, such as a pin for us aligning iwth FIBs for another trader and a signal from indicators in another system.
  • #3,026
  • Mar 19, 2009 5:30am Mar 19, 2009 5:30am
Quoting ezodisy
I don't trade that sort of reverse ny (not yet anyway), but I sold with you at 4292 and closed about your spot which was the 15m 10ema with the 1h 5sma just underneath.
Don't look now but it appears there was another reverse like that (which I didn't take) that could've produced some positive pippage. Of course the first time I take one of these, I know it will be where it doesn't work and I'll be cursing this trade and swearing I'll never take it again... And then it will work fine the next several times, and I'll decide to try it again and pick the wrong one to try.. Murphy seems to have it out for me sometimes..
  • #3,027
  • Mar 19, 2009 5:32am Mar 19, 2009 5:32am
Quoting nyjetfan
Daffy - This is an interesting point, as I was wondering if there's any "reason" to the length of the GU channeling on the 15m charts....
It's a bit more difficult to guage with 4H traders, as different feeds stagger the 4H open. In the same vein, you might wonder why a move takes a while to take hold, especially since you've been screaming about it on this thread for at least 30 minutes. Well, not everyone trades PA, nor S/R, and there are lot of people that rely on indicators, so there are times when you need an indicator to catch up with what the candlesticks are saying before the bulk of the move will occur.
  • #3,028
  • Mar 19, 2009 5:40am Mar 19, 2009 5:40am
Quoting daffy
It's a bit more difficult to guage with 4H traders, as different feeds stagger the 4H open. In the same vein, you might wonder why a move takes a while to take hold, especially since you've been screaming about it on this thread for at least 30 minutes. Well, not everyone trades PA, nor S/R, and there are lot of people that rely on indicators, so there are times when you need an indicator to catch up with what the candlesticks are saying before the bulk of the move will occur.
I have two different charting packages/broker demos that I use and they are about 1 hour apart on their 4hr charts. I have to say its pretty amazing how much of a difference I can see between their charts at times. Almost makes my head spin as sometimes they give completely different views and signals into the trading world.
  • #3,029
  • Mar 19, 2009 5:51am Mar 19, 2009 5:51am
Quoting nyjetfan
I have two different charting packages/broker demos that I use and they are about 1 hour apart on their 4hr charts. I have to say its pretty amazing how much of a difference I can see between their charts at times. Almost makes my head spin as sometimes they give completely different views and signals into the trading world.
I try to keep it as simple as possible with 1 4hr chart until I get more experienced and can use more
please DON'T copy my trades I am still learning
  • #3,030
  • Mar 19, 2009 6:22am Mar 19, 2009 6:22am
Quoting nyjetfan
Thanks Daffy, I definitely noticed the long wick, but am still picking up little nuggets of interpreting candles. One key for me was actually making the connection that the candlesticks are just a "graphical display of market sentiment".

Just came across an interesting graphic related to all the money the US government is spending. Worth the time to look if you have a few minutes to spare.

http://www.pagetutor.com/trillion/index.html
that is one hell of a lot of paper!
please DON'T copy my trades I am still learning
  • #3,031
  • Mar 19, 2009 7:22am Mar 19, 2009 7:22am
did anyone go long earlier today? You are laughing if you have eh?
please DON'T copy my trades I am still learning
  • #3,032
  • Mar 19, 2009 7:31am Mar 19, 2009 7:31am
hmm that number for foreign securities purchases is just a wee bit higher than expected
  • #3,033
  • Mar 19, 2009 7:35am Mar 19, 2009 7:35am
Well I can sit here, read through the pdf and see that this *shouldn't* be nearly as hard as I'm making it out to be. There are plenty of solid opportunities, and if you're patient there are plenty of pips to be had. This should be as simple as riding a bike.

So if it *should* be so simple, why do I keep falling off and scraping my elbows and knees?

Well I'm attaching my answer to that here - TRAINING WHEELS!

This is a quick word doc I created while waiting for news to pass which I'm going to use to start framing and documenting my trades. I'd bet that EO/Infinity/others all have a similar type of checklist that they do mentally before entering trades, but until it becomes "automatic" for me, I'm going to try to use this to help myself think through the trades.

Would be interested in any comments folks might have on other things that might be worth noting/mentioning as well. Hopefully this will save myself or someone from some bandages... Hoping this will let me create a nice "trade library" so I can have historical charts and see what trade setups I'm good at identifying and which I'm not.

While I know many do "analysis" on their P&L, I think its also important to be able to do analysis on your trading plan and how well you do/don't follow it.

Of course I could just be a rambling idiot (no comments please Cisco ) but at least you can laugh at me (I've been up since 2:30EST so might be a bit off kilter) if you don't find something here that will help you learn with me.
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc training wheels.doc   22 KB | 448 downloads
  • #3,034
  • Mar 19, 2009 7:53am Mar 19, 2009 7:53am
Quoting nyjetfan
Well I can sit here, read through the pdf and see that this *shouldn't* be nearly as hard as I'm making it out to be. There are plenty of solid opportunities, and if you're patient there are plenty of pips to be had. This should be as simple as riding a bike.

So if it *should* be so simple, why do I keep falling off and scraping my elbows and knees?

Well I'm attaching my answer to that here - TRAINING WHEELS!

This is a quick word doc I created while waiting for news to pass which I'm going to use to start framing and documenting my...
hey that could quite well be useful
please DON'T copy my trades I am still learning
  • #3,035
  • Mar 19, 2009 8:05am Mar 19, 2009 8:05am
Quoting nyjetfan
Of course I could just be a rambling idiot
You might want to switch to decaf.
Hi, my name is Barry and you can keep your doctor...
  • #3,036
  • Mar 19, 2009 8:07am Mar 19, 2009 8:07am
Quoting cisco
You might want to switch to decaf.
I knew I could count on you Cisco!
  • #3,037
  • Mar 19, 2009 8:08am Mar 19, 2009 8:08am
I wonder if wormboy acquired a buy button yet. lol
  • #3,038
  • Mar 19, 2009 8:12am Mar 19, 2009 8:12am
Could this be her top for now....I have kissing the daily 100sma??? and exactly at the 38.2 Fib of it's record low (1985 ) and record high of 2.1143 !!!
Might be speaking TOO soon
  • #3,039
  • Mar 19, 2009 8:15am Mar 19, 2009 8:15am
Quoting nyjetfan
Well I can sit here, read through the pdf and see that this *shouldn't* be nearly as hard as I'm making it out to be. There are plenty of solid opportunities, and if you're patient there are plenty of pips to be had. This should be as simple as riding a bike.

So if it *should* be so simple, why do I keep falling off and scraping my elbows and knees?

Well I'm attaching my answer to that here - TRAINING WHEELS!

This is a quick word doc I created while waiting for news to pass which I'm going to use to start framing and documenting my...

I find it useful to place markers on my charts of difficult trades then save that chart at the end of the day. Then when I have plenty of time to actually study it, Over the weekend normally go through them and pick out the common things that I THINK I am seeing to make me take it. Then you will gain your own insights of why they aren't working out.. It is so much better to have the actual chart to look over later . you can also place your great trades on there to reinforce what your doing right..
Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #3,040
  • Mar 19, 2009 8:29am Mar 19, 2009 8:29am
One other thing it is key to not dwell on your mistakes , This can make you make more, Look at them make a descsion of why you are doing it and then move on. Always better to focus on the great trades and try and miminic them as this is positive reinforcement, Which is the only way to succeed,

So don't feel to bad about non profitable trades ( they are never losers ). If sometimes you can't let a bad trade go , take a break for awhile to clear you head. Do something you like to change your focus. I meditate at times like that. Then go over your pdf to gain focus on the right setups and come back and be the winner.

Ken
Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
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