Trade what you see NOT what you expect | Page 151 | Forex Factory

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Trade what you see NOT what you expect

  • #3,001
  • Mar 19, 2009 3:13am Mar 19, 2009 3:13am
Quoting nyjetfan
Well she's cooling off, although that doesn't necessarily mean much. I'll believe it when I see a pin or some other confirming PA..

I agree, always wait for the signal PA and it to close....
Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #3,002
  • Mar 19, 2009 3:13am Mar 19, 2009 3:13am
Quoting KENNETH lEE
my 1 hr take
Ken - While I can see the channel you refer to, I'd be interested in what impact (if any) you (and everyone else) yesterday's big news spike has on the channel's validity?

I'd think since it didn't break out of the channel it *should* still be valid, but I'd be interested in others past experience.
  • #3,003
  • Mar 19, 2009 3:17am Mar 19, 2009 3:17am
Hey Ken, sorry i cant make out your channel, could you post zoomed out.

thanks
  • #3,004
  • Mar 19, 2009 3:19am Mar 19, 2009 3:19am
Quoting nyjetfan
Ken - While I can see the channel you refer to, I'd be interested in what impact (if any) you (and everyone else) yesterday's big news spike has on the channel's validity?

I'd think since it didn't break out of the channel it *should* still be valid, but I'd be interested in others past experience.

Like all line trading it is valid till it breaks.. Until I get a close above I will respect it.. Sorry for such a lame answer.. Might be breaking it now...
Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #3,005
  • Mar 19, 2009 3:24am Mar 19, 2009 3:24am
Quoting FOURX
Hey Ken, sorry i cant make out your channel, could you post zoomed out.

thanks
Here you go...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1 hr a.JPG Size: 100 KB
Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #3,006
  • Mar 19, 2009 3:27am Mar 19, 2009 3:27am
Cheers
  • #3,007
  • Mar 19, 2009 3:28am Mar 19, 2009 3:28am
I have price at a daily resistance point drawn from 30 Oct through the 9 FEb 1.49 high and price is bumping against it. Sorry I can't post a chart just now
  • #3,008
  • Mar 19, 2009 3:31am Mar 19, 2009 3:31am
Morning, folks
Is Double Top forming on 1H? Or the spike doesn't count?
  • #3,009
  • Mar 19, 2009 3:54am Mar 19, 2009 3:54am
Quoting Komissar
Morning, folks
Is Double Top forming on 1H? Or the spike doesn't count?
As the first peak occurred about 30+ minutes after the news spike, I'd consider it valid. Of course, looking at PA, there's potential for a pin on the 15m and 1h charts depending on where we close.
  • #3,010
  • Mar 19, 2009 4:16am Mar 19, 2009 4:16am
morning guys took a short at 4288 I will post chart
please DON'T copy my trades I am still learning
  • #3,011
  • Mar 19, 2009 4:17am Mar 19, 2009 4:17am
Quoting nyjetfan
As the first peak occurred about 30+ minutes after the news spike, I'd consider it valid. Of course, looking at PA, there's potential for a pin on the 15m and 1h charts depending on where we close.
Went short at close of green pin (Got in at 4287) on the 15m chart. Took partial profit at +20 (15m 10EMA) and moved stop to lock in small gain on rest and letting her run a bit).

Attached chart shows both the 15m and 1h related to this. (Both candles of interest are the last green candles, as charts were snapped shortly after entry).
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 3-19-tradelog2.gif Size: 26 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 3-19-tradelog21h.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #3,012
  • Mar 19, 2009 4:21am Mar 19, 2009 4:21am
Quoting nyjetfan
Went short at close of green pin (Got in at 4287) on the 15m chart. Took partial profit at +20 (15m 10EMA) and moved stop to lock in small gain on rest and letting her run a bit).

Attached chart shows both the 15m and 1h related to this. (Both candles of interest are the last green candles, as charts were snapped shortly after entry).
Remainder got taken out at +5. On the bench now waiting for the next bus to show up.

Anyone catch the flat close on the 15m and reverse? Wish I did, but there will be another bus along shortly.
  • #3,013
  • Mar 19, 2009 4:24am Mar 19, 2009 4:24am
Quoting nyjetfan
Went short at close of green pin (Got in at 4287) on the 15m chart. Took partial profit at +20 (15m 10EMA) and moved stop to lock in small gain on rest and letting her run a bit).

Attached chart shows both the 15m and 1h related to this. (Both candles of interest are the last green candles, as charts were snapped shortly after entry).
I was going to post a chart about this also, as there was an earlier signal, which you wouldn't trade off, but should be used as notice to get your short fingers ready.

Notice the 3 bullish candles in the prior up move? Each candle has a smaller body than the previous candle, that tells you that bull interest is waning, and bears are getting stronger. Also, look at the candle that had the high wick, notice how it closed below the wick of the previous candle? Again, that's a further signal that bears are getting a foothold in the market.

I know it hasn't been mentioned explicitly, but the candlesticks say something about market sentiment, and you can see changes occurring a few candles before the actual move if you read between the lines, or candlesticks.
  • #3,014
  • Mar 19, 2009 4:24am Mar 19, 2009 4:24am
Quoting ezmystic
morning guys took a short at 4288 I will post chart
here it is
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart 8.JPG Size: 94 KB
please DON'T copy my trades I am still learning
  • #3,015
  • Mar 19, 2009 4:25am Mar 19, 2009 4:25am
I don't trade that sort of reverse ny (not yet anyway), but I sold with you at 4292 and closed about your spot which was the 15m 10ema with the 1h 5sma just underneath.
  • #3,016
  • Mar 19, 2009 4:28am Mar 19, 2009 4:28am
Quoting nyjetfan
Remainder got taken out at +5. On the bench now waiting for the next bus to show up.

Anyone catch the flat close on the 15m and reverse? Wish I did, but there will be another bus along shortly.
no too busy posting chart got taken out +3 as well, we wait for nest one. I also took a short last night at 9.45 GMT as I was at work for half hour does anyone want to see that chart? there was no time to post last night.
please DON'T copy my trades I am still learning
  • #3,017
  • Mar 19, 2009 4:29am Mar 19, 2009 4:29am
Quoting daffy
I was going to post a chart about this also, as there was an earlier signal, which you wouldn't trade off, but should be used as notice to get your short fingers ready.

Notice the 3 bullish candles in the prior up move?...
Thanks Daffy, I definitely noticed the long wick, but am still picking up little nuggets of interpreting candles. One key for me was actually making the connection that the candlesticks are just a "graphical display of market sentiment".

Just came across an interesting graphic related to all the money the US government is spending. Worth the time to look if you have a few minutes to spare.

http://www.pagetutor.com/trillion/index.html
  • #3,018
  • Mar 19, 2009 4:42am Mar 19, 2009 4:42am
With London coming online and reacting to the Fed bombshell, things might be a bit bumpy. Remember to trade what you SEE and pay attention to your stops and position management.
  • #3,019
  • Mar 19, 2009 4:50am Mar 19, 2009 4:50am
Quoting daffy
I was going to post a chart about this also, as there was an earlier signal, which you wouldn't trade off, but should be used as notice to get your short fingers ready.

Notice the 3 bullish candles in the prior up move? Each candle has a smaller body than the previous candle, that tells you that bull interest is waning, and bears are getting stronger. Also, look at the candle that had the high wick, notice how it closed below the wick of the previous candle? Again, that's a further signal that bears are getting a foothold in the market.

I know...
cheers Daffy, it all helps with any bit of info we can gleam
please DON'T copy my trades I am still learning
  • #3,020
  • Mar 19, 2009 4:57am Mar 19, 2009 4:57am
Anyone care to share their take on the 1HR close in about 3 mins? Right now it looks to me like we're gonna have the last two bars at odds with each other. Any thoughts on it? Anyone see any buses coming by in the near future?
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