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  • #77,401
  • Mar 18, 2009 10:49pm Mar 18, 2009 10:49pm
Usually the price has been touching the PP earlier in the day (i'm GMT) before taking off for new highs, but today the rise was so abrupt that i didn't shorted it targetting the PP.
A load of longs entered today and are still in, since practicly no retrace happened, to me that means a large majority of the bulls have not taken profit yet.

I will venture and say that this hasn't been rising faster because there haven't been enough bears to help the bulls enter the game cheaper.
Traders are smartasses
  • #77,402
  • Mar 18, 2009 10:50pm Mar 18, 2009 10:50pm
Quoting Spsantos
...to me that means a large majority of the bulls have not taken profit yet.
Excellent observation.
  • #77,403
  • Mar 18, 2009 10:51pm Mar 18, 2009 10:51pm
Quoting NuckingFuts
...Another thing, there's a neat little trick with geppy.
Might as well give'em the EJ trick as well Nuck, since we're all gettin kissy face here...
FUBAR...
  • #77,404
  • Mar 18, 2009 10:56pm Mar 18, 2009 10:56pm
Quoting Spsantos
I will venture and say that this hasn't been rising faster because there haven't been enough bears to help the bulls enter the game cheaper.
one could also say the bulls are and have been closing their position but slowly as any possible bear is hesitant in entering the market due to the fact fundamentally and technically the dollar may not seem that attractive right now. Still...if the high is not decisively broken it will show the bears ok the usd went down for valid reasons...but the euro doesn't have any more strength to keep pushing higher either which will lead to the path of least resistance...back down...as the bears would gain more confidence and think..holy @$@#$...this is one cheap dollar!...has the long term trend (which is down) changed in one day?...i think most will agree that is not the case and eventually reenter short

this is the most confusing post i have ever had..hope it made sense as it is my thought process right now
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #77,405
  • Mar 18, 2009 10:58pm Mar 18, 2009 10:58pm
Quoting ak4x
Might as well give'em the EJ trick as well Nuck, since we're all gettin kissy face here...
I should dig up my old posts on this

Same thing with EJ as it is with GJ.

Its price is the product of its two majors:

EJ = EU x UJ

So if both majors are up, there's a 110% certainty that EJ will be up too. Yes that is a 110% certainty {who said there's no certainty in this game }

Very easy money when this alignment occurs.
  • #77,406
  • Mar 18, 2009 11:04pm Mar 18, 2009 11:04pm
And before anyone says my broker is X pips off. You've just busted your broker doing a bit of arbitrage.
  • #77,407
  • Mar 18, 2009 11:06pm Mar 18, 2009 11:06pm
Quoting Poocher
Now if ya had put a nice and pretty chart with this statement maybe I'd of took more notice!

From a March 13th. post where 99vt66 predicted 1.3550 for the eurusd:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=75456
Mr Poocher - Charts

First,I did not "predict", But its what the price dynamics on my chart shows..Actually my chart is a very simple chart with simple inds like rsi, stoch,dmi, and some mas. I had already posted what is really needed on the chart for one to be efficiently traded in my earlier post.(mabbe you like to look it up ?) As such My Third Eyes is thus opened....

Mr. Altrader- Divergences

I have read quite a bit of this in this forum BUT my understanding is you look for divergences between indicators and price ONLY you have identify the topping or basing signals NOT before it becos there are plenty of divergences in the daily chop of the price actions which can easily confuse you.

I have also notice some traders here using rangey trading method in trending market. They should do good if they can differentiate between the 2s. Even though PA range 70% of the time. (Lately its getting less frequent in this pair due to re-aligning of world currencies vis a vis USD)

Lastly please do not use fundamentals to scalp or do intraday trades. You must learn to use FIB instead whether its line to line or point to point. Line to line works perfect for rangey or consolidated market conditions.

I hope it can help some traders here with my half-baked method but it works for me perfectly since 36months ago...

GL and peace be unto you ALL......
  • #77,408
  • Mar 18, 2009 11:10pm Mar 18, 2009 11:10pm
Quoting 99vt66
....I have read quite a bit of this in this forum BUT my understanding is you look for divergences between indicators and price ONLY you have identify the topping or basing signals NOT before it becos there are plenty of divergences in the daily chop of the price actions which can easily confuse you....
Divergence means nothing until it is confirmed by a break in the trend.
  • #77,409
  • Mar 18, 2009 11:11pm Mar 18, 2009 11:11pm
Quoting psiholog
one could also say the bulls are and have been closing their position but slowly as any possible bear is hesitant in entering the market due to the fact fundamentally and technically the dollar may not seem that attractive right now. Still...if the high is not decisively broken it will show the bears ok the usd went down for valid reasons...but the euro doesn't have any more strength to keep pushing higher either which will lead to the path of least resistance...back down...as the bears would gain more confidence and think..holy @$@#$...this is...
I guess I understood your remarks

I do agree with you on the fact that the Euro itself hasn't the strength to go up, what's happening imho is that all the money that was put into dollar for safe haven is starting to get withdrawn, so if we relate back to where the stock market started to fall together with the dollar rising, we should have a pretty accurate indicator of where at least the EUR/USD should be after the dollar as safe haven isn't needed anymore.

The rate that money that is "parked" on USD leaves, depends on the confidence the investors have to switch back to the stock market. In the end, weaker dollar doesn't mean that bad news, in fact if one needs to stimulate economy and be competitive, you need to have the right balance between product prices and purchasing power.

So basicly, and without english being my native language is the best way I can explain my understanding of what's happening. I may be completly wrong, or completly right, or somewhere in the middle... just trying to exchange points of view
Traders are smartasses
  • #77,410
  • Mar 18, 2009 11:14pm Mar 18, 2009 11:14pm
Quoting Chicky
Just an innocent, probably a silly question: Do you think whoever big fish bought it today, will let it retrace? IT IS FLAT, maybe because buying is still going on.
Average volume by the minute just before the pop was....say "20". Then the pop......only took two minutes to go about 230 pips. What is noteworthy here is the first minute was volume of only "41" and the second minute was volume of only "68"........neither remarkably escalated from the previous "20".

You can bet the big boys already had their long positions running. Central Banks pumped the price without a lot of volume. And since they are numbered amongst the big boys, they effectively wrote a check for their own profit! All the big boys breathed easier once the pump was quickly successful and their holdings extremely profitable.....and THAT was when the serious volume came in.....as they SOLD those profitable long positions and sold more to go short again. They took advantage of the herd that was still buying long and figuring on much more to come in the days/weeks ahead.

My hypothesis. If right, we will all be hearing about something that causes "a change in the sentiment" (this stuff is really all well planned out before, so it will be laughable when it happens). Longs will be stranded as it plummets again.

Who cares, anyway. As long as the big boys keep it moving, we get the volatility we need for trading. Rhyme and reason are for the birds....just keep it moving....either way, it makes no difference.
  • #77,411
  • Mar 18, 2009 11:14pm Mar 18, 2009 11:14pm
Quoting NuckingFuts
I should dig up my old posts on this
no problem, got'em bookmarked.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1273
FUBAR...
  • #77,412
  • Mar 18, 2009 11:15pm Mar 18, 2009 11:15pm
Quote
Originally Posted by Doniboy http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
P.S. Penny stocks are basically a Ponzi scheme now. You should have seen some of the "Companies" I owned...basically a guy in his Nevada basement who bought a shell ticker name and then pays forum kids to pump up the stock...it's actually funny.

The way I see it now, it's all a Ponzi scheme. The stock market is Ponzi Scheme sponsored by governments. The forex market is a Ponzi Scheme set up between countries. Same goes for futures, Treasuries, you name it, just about every single trading instrument is a massive Ponzi scheme.

However, only government Ponzi's are legal .

Your job is to make sure, you are not the fall guy, the last man or next to the last man on the chain, the guy holding the wrong end of the stick.

Come to think of it, the whole world is it stands now is one giant massive Ponzi.

Obama and the rest of the world are trying to fix the economy of the world while at the same time, passing the wrong end of the stick (inflation etc)to the next generation (if there is another).

Be a part of government sponsored Ponzis's as long as governments exist. Unfortunately for the next man, this means " try to save your hide first and let the next man ensure he saves his". Classic human nature of selfishness, and another indicator that this world will have to blow up some day.

on a nother note, I was waiting for that move up, problem was I was expecting it at 1.4 with the conflence of fib / psych resistance there. I missed the train. I dont like trading the European session so I may have missed it for good for the day except perhaaps Sydney, when I'll be opportuned to trade again, hopefully
  • #77,413
  • Mar 18, 2009 11:19pm Mar 18, 2009 11:19pm
Quoting 99vt66
Mr Poocher - Charts

First,I did not "predict", But its what the price dynamics on my chart shows..Actually my chart is a very simple chart with simple inds like rsi, stoch,dmi, and some mas. I had already posted what is really needed on the chart for one to be efficiently traded in my earlier post.(mabbe you like to look it up ?) As such My Third Eyes is thus opened....

Mr. Altrader- Divergences

I have read quite a bit of this in this forum BUT my understanding is you look for divergences between indicators and price ONLY you have identify...
Thanks for the feedback 99vt66. I'm still learning about divergences and how I can best implement them into my trading strategy. It is food for thought.

I also agree with NuckingFuts when he says that divergence needs to be confirmed by breakout of trend.
  • #77,414
  • Mar 18, 2009 11:21pm Mar 18, 2009 11:21pm
Quoting traderathome
Average volume by the minute just before the pop was....say "20"....
wrong
this is CME volume , not some anonymous broker volume , look at the interval
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  • #77,415
  • Mar 18, 2009 11:25pm Mar 18, 2009 11:25pm
Quoting traderathome
Average volume by the minute just before the pop was....say "20"....
I don't understand how you can refer to metatrader tick volume (not to mention that it's confined to your broker) as market volume.

If that volume were a part of a picture per-say, you'd be extremely lucky to have 1 pixel of the whole picture.
  • #77,416
  • Mar 18, 2009 11:26pm Mar 18, 2009 11:26pm
Quoting digetman
Have you gotten Beau's opinion on this strategy? Merlin what is your take on adjusting the stops? I am getting desperate I am down $1000!! As sure as I change the strategy though it will go yard. That has been my luck so far. I plan to just stick with the original management rules until further word from Beau.
Down by $1000 can be very thretening. You can however recover by applying strict money management rules.
  • #77,417
  • Mar 18, 2009 11:30pm Mar 18, 2009 11:30pm
Quoting arthurb
wrong
this is CME volume , not some anonymous broker volume , look at the interval
That looks like a 133 tick based chart - is that correct? Also are you using contract or tick volume because mine looks nothing like what you posted.
  • #77,418
  • Mar 18, 2009 11:31pm Mar 18, 2009 11:31pm
Quoting altrader
Thanks for the feedback 99vt66. I'm still learning about divergences and how I can best implement them into my trading strategy. It is food for thought.

I also agree with NuckingFuts when he says that divergence needs to be confirmed by breakout of trend.
The subject of positive and negative divergence is essential part of technical analysis. please let us ensure that we know how they work.
  • #77,419
  • Mar 18, 2009 11:36pm Mar 18, 2009 11:36pm
Quoting altrader
Thanks for the feedback 99vt66. I'm still learning about divergences and how I can best implement them into my trading strategy. It is food for thought.

I also agree with NuckingFuts when he says that divergence needs to be confirmed by breakout of trend.
You are most welcome and I think Mr NuckingFuts is absolutely correct in his understanding of Divergences and I think he means it in a longer term trades since he uses the word "Trend" unless of course he wants it to describe the daily chop of the price dynamics as Trend too. Here I am talking s/t intraday trades.
  • #77,420
  • Mar 18, 2009 11:37pm Mar 18, 2009 11:37pm
Quoting Tonny
You can however recover by applying strict money management rules.
Interesting reply to a 5 year old post... but possible and "practical" are really two separate things here...

Before one gets too hopeful in that scenario... check out the third green chart near the bottom of --> http://www.babypips.com/school/dont_...our_shirt.html

If someone gets theirself a grand into the hole on the average micro/mini account, then the odds they'd recover that w/o refunding the account and changing their ways are... well small.

Again... possible and practical, two different words.
FUBAR...
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