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  • #77,301
  • Mar 18, 2009 8:14pm Mar 18, 2009 8:14pm
Quoting ForexDude
I don't know any other alternatives to know overbought or oversold markets.

Do you have any you can recommend me?

Also, what generated that move? Those moves don't happen too often... Did you know that it was going to happen? Or you got in the long train when you saw price was going up?
without Wiki... please define
"Overbought"
or
"Oversold"
whichever is easier.

Then explain to You Why That will have an effect on Price Direction...

Keep in mind that the EUR/USD {on some TF's} has been Overbought for some weeks now.

I don't want to be your Critic. That's your job.

  • #77,302
  • Mar 18, 2009 8:14pm Mar 18, 2009 8:14pm
Quoting TIckerShuffl
FED said they would print 300billion to buy treasuries, implies dollar may be worth less. It's nothing nobody didn't already know, but likely retail was net short and the event was used to make volatility. I have caught a few of those over the years - missed it his time.

Yeah man.. it's TO EASY to talk with the "monday's Newspaper".

It would be good if someone can tell us before the move happen.

Anyone can say now, why the move happen. Although, it's true that you are answering my question.

Even if you are wrong, and it didn't happen because the reason you are giving. NOBODY, I repeat, NOBODY in this forum, knew that move was going to happen. All of the guys profiting from it, were guys jumping in the "long" train, because they saw price going up. But that move destroyed all the fundamentals and technical ever made.
Why do we fall? "So we can learn to pick ourselves up."
  • #77,303
  • Mar 18, 2009 8:22pm Mar 18, 2009 8:22pm
Quoting ForexDude
... All of the guys profiting from it, were guys jumping in the "long" train, because they saw price going up....
I boarded the long train weeks ago at 2500, 2550 and 2600 while everyone was screaming short.

Love those daily and weekly timeframes
  • #77,304
  • Mar 18, 2009 8:29pm Mar 18, 2009 8:29pm
Quoting ForexDude
Yeah man.. it's TO EASY to talk with the "monday's Newspaper".

It would be good if someone can tell us before the move happen.

Anyone can say now, why the move happen. Although, it's true that you are answering my question.

Even if you are wrong, and it didn't happen because the reason you are giving. NOBODY, I repeat, NOBODY in this forum, knew that move was going to happen. All of the guys profiting from it, were guys jumping in the "long" train, because they saw price going up. But that move destroyed all the fundamentals and technical...
snails do leaves trails after them
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  • #77,305
  • Mar 18, 2009 8:30pm Mar 18, 2009 8:30pm
Quoting ForexDude
I don't know any other alternatives to know overbought or oversold markets.
Overbought can go higher, oversold lower. I wish those levels were real, it would be a lot easier
  • #77,306
  • Mar 18, 2009 8:31pm Mar 18, 2009 8:31pm
Quoting ForexDude
Even if you are wrong, and it didn't happen because the reason you are giving. NOBODY, I repeat, NOBODY in this forum, knew that move was going to happen. All of the guys profiting from it, were guys jumping in the "long" train, because they saw price going up. But that move destroyed all the fundamentals and technical ever made.
i must agree with this statement. the dollar started getting weaker since early last week on speculation the feds would start buying us treasuries and so on. The reasons for the bull run up i had originally were merely "diversions" (citi...china worries..g20..etc). So...the dollar has been getting weaker since last week because of this speculation... the classic "buy the rumor sell the news concept" and when it was made official....it only fueled the push up even more (ill show a chart..no sell the news here). It was truly a gamble to be in the market at the time of the announcement as the market could have very well done what it did to the downside given the feds would have said something else OR market makers interpreted the news differently. I think the only ones who truly did not gamble are the longer term traders who had positions open since much lower levels and could afford a 100pip stop loss or so at time of release. The ones who entered after the news release...consider yourself lucky

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Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #77,307
  • Mar 18, 2009 8:37pm Mar 18, 2009 8:37pm
Quoting ForexDude
NOBODY, I repeat, NOBODY in this forum, knew that move was going to happen. All of the guys profiting from it, were guys jumping in the "long" train, because they saw price going up. .
I'll agree about the "know", but since when is that news?

I don't "know" it will even move one pip in any given direction... but I do risk my coin everyday that it will or won't as the case may be... as do you if you're trading.

As to the "jump on the train"... kinda hard to do when it's going ballistic... I can't imagine any borker executing an order in the middle of that first 1m candle at your click price. Many here are saying their platforms froze solid or had large gaps.

My long entry was before the release based on how I saw things, as were a number of others here, I took my profits accordingly, and am working the retrace as well.

Had it gone the other way, both you and me would be singing some other tune no doubt, but i wouldn't be moaning about it here. That's the lumps you take sometimes....
FUBAR...
  • #77,308
  • Mar 18, 2009 8:38pm Mar 18, 2009 8:38pm
Quoting Bemac
without Wiki... please define
"Overbought"
or
"Oversold"
whichever is easier.

Then explain to You Why That will have an effect on Price Direction...

Keep in mind that the EUR/USD {on some TF's} has been Overbought for some weeks now.

I don't want to be your Critic. That's your job.

Common pitfall with these indi's is that people think it's literally overbought/oversold.
  • #77,309
  • Mar 18, 2009 8:38pm Mar 18, 2009 8:38pm
In the meantime it has dropped about 40 pips in the last half an hour.
  • #77,310
  • Mar 18, 2009 8:43pm Mar 18, 2009 8:43pm
Quoting psiholog
the bull doesnt seem to be finished yet. a bull flag/pennant has developed since the high (which was originally h&s on 1m chart lmao)...and could break either way with most likely hood up. in the end current pa can be best classified as a range between 1.3515 and 1.3425 or so. The only time the bears can be considered to have come back is if we break below 1.3355..until then...all bears out there be careful to not be impaled by the horns..including me
Psi, does this mean you are expecting a consolidation around 1.3500 before it decides where to head next?
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #77,311
  • Mar 18, 2009 8:46pm Mar 18, 2009 8:46pm
Quoting ak4x
I'll agree about the "know", but since when is that news?

I don't "know" it will even move one pip in any given direction... but I do risk my coin everyday that it will or won't as the case may be... as do you if you're trading.

As to the "jump on the train"... kinda hard to do when it's going ballistic... I can't imagine any borker executing an order in the middle of that first 1m candle at your click price. Many here are saying their platforms froze solid or had large gaps.

My long entry was before the release based on how I saw things,...
Ak, you won on me on that reply, i totally agree and would like, if I may, just add one last reminder:

About technicals and fundamentals being totally destroyed;
- Technicly, the ideal position to be in this pair at that time (if one were to be in a trade) was long, so the move actually moved with the trend.
- Fundamentaly it was understable, in fact the reason this all happened was due to a fundamental change as stated by ticker. Expected, maybe, of course none of us knew the "when and how", boy if we did...

So basicly everything wasn't that of a surprise, except of course the magnitude of the movement, but reminding the money that has been sitting on the sidelines waiting for the markets to recover, isn't that big of a surprise.
Traders are smartasses
  • #77,312
  • Mar 18, 2009 8:49pm Mar 18, 2009 8:49pm
I'm currently short with a t/p at the daily pivot of 1.3321

Stop loss is set a few pips above the high.

I see no divergence on the chart. It's just doing a bit of a correction going down. Could see a bounce at the pivot and head higher--or not.
  • #77,313
  • Mar 18, 2009 8:51pm Mar 18, 2009 8:51pm
my opinion

1.3355 is not an entry for bears, if it breaks today will not be a suprise, and i do belive it is a good entry for a buy order with TP at 1.4500

if that wappens i'm ready
  • #77,314
  • Mar 18, 2009 8:55pm Mar 18, 2009 8:55pm
I just got up and decided to see what happened last night. Holy crap what a move.

For those that were long - Congratulations
For those that were short - Condolences

I'm flat until next week. Take care.
  • #77,315
  • Mar 18, 2009 8:55pm Mar 18, 2009 8:55pm
Quoting Chicky
Psi, does this mean you are expecting a consolidation around 1.3500 before it decides where to head next?
honestly i dont know what to expect. after such a strong move up...one could consider if the bears are coming back into play first they have to stock up on positions at the high which could suggest we stick at these high levels until they have done so (could take 1hour could take 1day or week..who knows). Very much so for the bulls...given the strength of the move up if they are to continue going higher first they need a partial retracement to stock up on even more positions (which could also take a random amount of time).

Instead of making that assumption of where we go next and how long it takes to get there...I will only concentrate on the swing highs and swing lows of the current range since the initial news release. Even though the 15min chart does not show it..there was a partial retrace for a few minutes to 1.3355 to make sure it was support before the continuation higher (hence the swing low for the time being). The high obviously is the swing high for now. The mid level which has gotten most play and has acted as support since news release is the 1.3425/35 level.

I am keeping an eye out currently for patterns and this flag/pennant does seem to reinforce the idea 1.3425 is strong support for now which does suggest a retest of the high. That could form an M or push pa even higher. IF we manage to get through 1.3425 to the down side and break 1.3355 as well...a retest of the bigger uptrend i showed in my last chart is possible.

Long story short...i have no freakin idea where we go next or how long it will take to go there haha

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Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #77,316
  • Mar 18, 2009 8:55pm Mar 18, 2009 8:55pm
Quoting Spsantos
...So basicly everything wasn't that of a surprise, except of course the magnitude of the movement...
Could not agree more.

Technicals always lead fundamentals.

How, I have no idea. All I know is that when my chart says long, I'm long. If it says short, I'm short. No matter what the fundies are saying.
  • #77,317
  • Mar 18, 2009 8:55pm Mar 18, 2009 8:55pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=76571

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=76572

Now didn't I tell you kids to hold on to your f@#king hat?

Ok, to be fair, I didn't expect quite that move. But I felt like celebrating.

http://i39.tinypic.com/zx466s.jpg
Not all sins are created equal
  • #77,318
  • Mar 18, 2009 8:56pm Mar 18, 2009 8:56pm
Quoting Chicky
Me too without reaching the holster for last 24 hours. Intend to build long positions until it hits 1.2750. Target for average long between 1.2800/1.2850. Will book loss if it gets below 1.2700. TP between 1.3450 and 1.3500. But that is just me, follow your own plans.
Some people did express their intentions ahead of the move.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #77,319
  • Mar 18, 2009 8:56pm Mar 18, 2009 8:56pm
Quoting ForexDude
Exactly, this is just too crazy...

NOBODY knew that move was going to happen, NOBODY... Even the PROs had absolutely NO IDEA that was going to happen.

So, imagine someone following the "Long trend" advice, and only trading on daily charts... He will finish losing all... Because he has no margin to afford such BESTIAL move....
Actually, the daily charts have been showing a slowly weaking $ for about 2 weeks, so if you were trading the daily's, the trend had turned up, should have been long according to the dailys. Don't be so sure that this will not hold up, there may be more $ weakening for a while. If history repeats itself, last time this exact situation happened, (fed quantitive easing) the EURUSD rallied about 1,700 pips for a few days w/o much of a retrace.
  • #77,320
  • Mar 18, 2009 8:57pm Mar 18, 2009 8:57pm
Quoting dysan4x
I just got up and decided to see what happened last night. Holy crap what a move.

For those that were long - Congratulations
For those that were short - Condolences

I'm flat until next week. Take care.
Yeah I was shocked actually. Glad I wasn't trading that move.
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