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Psych Levels, Pivots, and Trendlines - Resurrected

  • #2,221
  • Mar 18, 2009 7:57am Mar 18, 2009 7:57am
Quoting DanUK
All the waiting is worthwhile when you are kindly rewarded!

Short after the bearish engulfing candle that closed below the 1.1750, S1 and EMAs. S2 was on the horizon but fortunately for me it didn't stop the trade and I managed to grab a 1:2 trade on it. If I had a bit more nerve I could have achieved 1:3 but I decided to bail out when price came back up!
You're right, mate, sometimes the wait turns out to be well worthwhile. Which pairs do you keep an eye on, Dan? I know from your recent post that you primarily watch EUR/USD for your LT trades, but how many for the ST ones?
In case you're interested re Cable, I've been reading some fundamentals this morning that suggests that Cable looks a cert to drop to around the 1.3500 level over the next few days. Time will tell, as our friend Islander is always telling us!!
  • #2,222
  • Mar 18, 2009 8:11am Mar 18, 2009 8:11am
Sorry, guys - some of the staff I will describe is "non-standard" (as far as this thread's theme is concerned), but I hope you'll see why.

That's a quick analysis I made for a friend of mine, just in broad brushstrokes:

1. Vertical lines mark divergences.
2. Horizontal rectangles (long ones) mark strong SR levels.
3. Short rectangles mark tripple/double bottoms (there was a double top too at the top SR level - not marked).

You can see Bearish Engulfing (marked with grey rect) which bounced off strong SR level (which was not "psych"). Note how MAs (EMA: 8 - yellow, 13 - orange, 21 - white, 62 - blue; SMA50 - solid blue) acted as S or R.

Overall, it's like readind a book, almost child's play, a couple of great RR3-4 trades (one quick CT one). I even disregarded that huge move at the end, that's a bonus.

Enjoy! Again, sorry for a "non-standard" chart, pls aks me ?s if you have any
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #2,223
  • Mar 18, 2009 8:29am Mar 18, 2009 8:29am
Quoting Forex007
Sorry, guys - some of the staff I will describe is "non-standard" (as far as this thread's theme is concerned), but I hope you'll see why.

That's a quick analysis I made for a friend of mine, just in broad brushstrokes:

1. Vertical lines mark divergences.
2. Horizontal rectangles (long ones) mark strong SR levels.
3. Short rectangles mark tripple/double bottoms (there was a double top too at the top SR level - not marked).

You can see Bearish Engulfing (marked with grey rect) which bounced off strong SR level (which was not "psych")....
I do hope you won't be offended, old chap, but your chart really does hurt my eyes! Far too much to look at, IMHO, but hey mate, each to their own!


Edit: You see, I forgot what I was going to ask you! Do you have your charts like this all the time, mate? And do you REALLY find them very simple to interpret?
  • #2,224
  • Mar 18, 2009 8:39am Mar 18, 2009 8:39am
Quoting eyevoltage
You're right, mate, sometimes the wait turns out to be well worthwhile. Which pairs do you keep an eye on, Dan? I know from your recent post that you primarily watch EUR/USD for your LT trades, but how many for the ST ones?
In case you're interested re Cable, I've been reading some fundamentals this morning that suggests that Cable looks a cert to drop to around the 1.3500 level over the next few days. Time will tell, as our friend Islander is always telling us!!
Yes I am interested in Cable too. That's my second pair that I trade longer term. I have been short Cable since 1.4150 so I drop to 3500 would be good for me!

Short term I tend to keep me eyes on most of the majors (that Alpari offer)... USDCHF, EURCHF, USDJPY, GBPUSD, EURUSD, USDCAD, AUDUSD, EURJPY... I think that's the bulk of them! Since I have been fine-tuning my trading (as per this thread) I only tend to keep a close eye on the pairs that are trending - which is easily identifiable using your EMA selection.

Having said that - think this method can easily be adapted to trade ranging markets; it's just I prefer to use the trend power!!
  • #2,225
  • Mar 18, 2009 9:16am Mar 18, 2009 9:16am
One of my rare trades involving Swissy, but this is nice and straightforward. A nice little Harami candle formed at the confluence of the 13ema and the xx00 psych-line. Entry was just under the low of the Harami, and there followed an unhurried and unimpeded drop until I bailed out with 43 pips. As I type this, price is still dropping, but I'm happy.
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  • #2,226
  • Mar 18, 2009 9:24am Mar 18, 2009 9:24am
Hi guys, heads up on EU, nice R3 tap a moment ago (3153 +2)..

I'm watching a fib level just above that at 3160ish tho for a short with Very Tight stop...

Chart is from yesterday at the new daily candle but the levels are all there.
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FUBAR...
  • #2,227
  • Mar 18, 2009 11:10am Mar 18, 2009 11:10am
Quoting eyevoltage
One of my rare trades involving Swissy, but this is nice and straightforward. A nice little Harami candle formed at the confluence of the 13ema and the xx00 psych-line. Entry was just under the low of the Harami, and there followed an unhurried and unimpeded drop until I bailed out with 43 pips. As I type this, price is still dropping, but I'm happy.
Nice one! Bet you got a good R:R on that one! I didn't pay much attention to that pair before coming across this thread, now I find the swissy gives me a few nice opps!

Got one here on AUD/USD 5m - nice bearish engulfing candle closing below the 1.6600 psych level, daily pivot and the EMAS. Managed a nice 1:2 taking the break below.
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  • #2,228
  • Mar 18, 2009 2:30pm Mar 18, 2009 2:30pm
Quoting eyevoltage
I do hope you won't be offended, old chap, but your chart really does hurt my eyes! Far too much to look at, IMHO, but hey mate, each to their own!


Edit: You see, I forgot what I was going to ask you! Do you have your charts like this all the time, mate? And do you REALLY find them very simple to interpret?
EV, no offence at all - I am OK with a constructive criticism or comments, especially from people whose opinion I respect (and you are one of them).

My charts used to scare me too They do seem "busy", but I am only looking at one specific thing at a time. I used to have 2-3 charts open per pair per TF, each with different system/method setups, but that was impractical. So, I learned to focus just on what I need to see.

[OFF-TOPIC - Each element is there for a very specific reason. E.g. MACD, CCI and RSI - I use them only for divergences. I don't trade pure divergences, but when I have one on all three oscilators, plus "medium-strength" PA, I take that trade. Divergences could be very powerful, if you know how and, most importantly, when to use them. Same goes, for example, for Bollinger Bands. I use them for very specific setups in very specific circumstance. So, when such circumstances are not present, I simply ignore BB.]

I view the market as kid's sorter. I want to avoid the situation when "if the only tool you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail". The market presents (much) more than round pegs; so - without trying to be a Jack of all trades - I would like to be able to identify square and triangular ones too. One tool does not cover it all.

I hope that makes sense.
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One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #2,229
  • Mar 18, 2009 4:00pm Mar 18, 2009 4:00pm
Quoting eyevoltage
One of my rare trades involving Swissy, but this is nice and straightforward. A nice little Harami candle formed at the confluence of the 13ema and the xx00 psych-line. Entry was just under the low of the Harami, and there followed an unhurried and unimpeded drop until I bailed out with 43 pips. As I type this, price is still dropping, but I'm happy.
Hi there EV, I noticed u guys have been having a great time. I have been very busy with my other job as such i hv not been trading much.
Good job on keeping the thread alive. I will be back soon.
cheers mate!
He that is from above is above all.
  • #2,230
  • Mar 18, 2009 4:06pm Mar 18, 2009 4:06pm
Quoting Forex007
EV, no offence at all - I am OK with a constructive criticism or comments, especially from people whose opinion I respect (and you are one of them).

My charts used to scare me too They do seem "busy", but I am only looking at one specific thing at a time. I used to have 2-3 charts open per pair per TF, each with different system/method setups, but that was impractical. So, I learned to focus just on what I need to see.

[OFF-TOPIC - Each element is there for a very specific reason. E.g. MACD, CCI and RSI - I use them only for divergences....
Thanks for the run-down, mate, and additional thanks for not flaming me!! Now you've explained how you use them, it does start to make sense.....I think. I still prefer the simple charts that we use, but as I said before, each to his own.
Cheers
  • #2,231
  • Mar 18, 2009 4:15pm Mar 18, 2009 4:15pm
Quoting DanUK
Yes I am interested in Cable too. That's my second pair that I trade longer term. I have been short Cable since 1.4150 so I drop to 3500 would be good for me!

Short term I tend to keep me eyes on most of the majors (that Alpari offer)... USDCHF, EURCHF, USDJPY, GBPUSD, EURUSD, USDCAD, AUDUSD, EURJPY... I think that's the bulk of them! Since I have been fine-tuning my trading (as per this thread) I only tend to keep a close eye on the pairs that are trending - which is easily identifiable using your EMA selection.

Having said that - think...
Sorry for not replying earlier, Dan, but I got sidetracked. Many thanks for the info.
The only pairs I watch (all the time) are Cable and eur/usd. I usually add one more to keep an eye on, but I sort of switch around, depending on the current activity. Up until today, Numero 3 was eur/jpy, but I've changed it now to Swissy, as there seemed to be a degree more volatility on that one.
Three's my limit, though. I've tried watching up to 6, but my eyes starting imitating a fruit machine!! So 3 will do for me, mate. That's plenty to be going on with, thanks very much!
  • #2,232
  • Mar 18, 2009 4:16pm Mar 18, 2009 4:16pm
Quoting pipaholic67
Hi there EV, I noticed u guys have been having a great time. I have been very busy with my other job as such i hv not been trading much.
Good job on keeping the thread alive. I will be back soon.
cheers mate!
....and you'll be very welcome, mate!
  • #2,233
  • Mar 18, 2009 4:22pm Mar 18, 2009 4:22pm
Quoting eyevoltage
Thanks for the run-down, mate, and additional thanks for not flaming me!! Now you've explained how you use them, it does start to make sense.....I think. I still prefer the simple charts that we use, but as I said before, each to his own.
Cheers
I told a friend of mine recently that system-wise he would do well by just imitating your approach. I.e. if he can identify setups the way you do, he is more than half way there. And no other fancy bits are needed to make money (except, of course, "common" FX-related knowledge and tons of practice and patience )

EV, what is the percentage of failed setups you currently have on average?
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #2,234
  • Mar 18, 2009 4:32pm Mar 18, 2009 4:32pm
is there any EA to trade with this system?
  • #2,235
  • Edited 5:00pm Mar 18, 2009 4:40pm | Edited 5:00pm
Quoting hoichoi
is there any EA to trade with this system?
This system (as many others) carries a bit of "contradiction": it requires some discretion in respect of specific (almost "mechanical") rules. By the time you programme all the eventualities, you'd become a great trader
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #2,236
  • Edited 3:25am Mar 19, 2009 3:23am | Edited 3:25am
GM all.

Great Frankies Hour trades - textbook

Long off the higher low at the 200 level, TP at the 50 level - I took a cheaky short there too http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon11.gif - long again after that mini pb with TP at the 300 level and I've just bought the last pb to the 75 level.......
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #2,237
  • Mar 19, 2009 3:46am Mar 19, 2009 3:46am
Quoting Islander
GM all.

Great Frankies Hour trades - textbook

Long off the higher low at the 200 level, TP at the 50 level - I took a cheaky short there too http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon11.gif - long again after that mini pb with TP at the 300 level and I've just bought the last pb to the 75 level.......
Out for +15 on trailing stop on last long.....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #2,238
  • Edited 3:52am Mar 19, 2009 3:48am | Edited 3:52am
Quoting Islander
GM all.

Great Frankies Hour trades - textbook

Long off the higher low at the 200 level, TP at the 50 level - I took a cheaky short there too http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon11.gif - long again after that mini pb with TP at the 300 level and I've just bought the last pb to the 75 level.......
Hi Islander, nice setups. I also took a long from around 1.4200 after a higher low is formed by a bullish engulfing candle (highlighted in the chart). It appeared to be a up trend indication to me. (I am learning this kind of swing analysis as inspired by your posts, so it will be much appreciated if you could tell me more about that ) I waited for a minor swing high break to enter. I took profit at the xx50 psycho level and then I bought again when the price broke the swing high and the same xx50 psycho level. I then took profit at the 1.30 psycho level.

Entries and exits are as indicated in the chart.
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  • #2,239
  • Mar 19, 2009 4:11am Mar 19, 2009 4:11am
Quoting dreamtrader
Hi Islander, nice setups. I also took a long from around 1.4200 after a higher low is formed by a bullish engulfing candle (highlighted in the chart). It appeared to be a up trend indication to me. (I am learning this kind of swing analysis as inspired by your posts, so it will be much appreciated if you could tell me more about that ) I waited for a minor swing high break to enter. I took profit at the xx50 psycho level and then I bought again when the price broke the swing high and the same xx50 psycho level. I then took profit at...
During the FO / LO period, whilst I have my 15m and 5m charts up, I actually watch the levels off a 1 min chart and take entries very quickly with a 10 pip stop - I'm also watching Euro and Swissy.

I'll TP around the levels as in Frankies Hour you often get a reversal.http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #2,240
  • Mar 19, 2009 4:13am Mar 19, 2009 4:13am
Quoting Islander
GM all.

Great Frankies Hour trades - textbook

Long off the higher low at the 200 level, TP at the 50 level - I took a cheaky short there too http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon11.gif - long again after that mini pb with TP at the 300 level and I've just bought the last pb to the 75 level.......
Great start to the day as usual, Islander, and showing us the way to go! Spot on, mate.

Forex007, in answer to your question, I would estimate a 75/25 percentage ratio in favour of successful trades. I always wait for a good set-up, but if I find it turning into what our American friends would term a "half-assed" trade, (a wonderful expression!) then I exit ASAP, keeping losses at a minimum.
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