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Trade what you see NOT what you expect

  • #2,801
  • Edited 10:07am Mar 18, 2009 9:54am | Edited 10:07am
Here's a rather simple view. If current supply is S1 and current demand is D1, then if the fed starts printing money, thus increasing supply as depicted by the shift from S1 to S2, that would decrease price (dollar strength/price), unless there was a corresponding increase in demand, which would be a shift upwards from D1.
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  • #2,802
  • Mar 18, 2009 9:55am Mar 18, 2009 9:55am
Quoting eohater
I'm working my way through the thread and many have responded to the question I posted yesterday about the thread and is it helping you or not. I appreciate your responses, but I would still like to hear from others that are here. We have a nice size crowd everyday and like I've said before, if your here in my thread, then I want you to be making green pippage. Even if you've never posted before, please share your thoughts.
Hey EO.

Thoroughly enjoying the thread,

I am about to start getting on the bus myself, i will let you know how i fare!

Oh!, by the way, where is the next bus stop?
  • #2,803
  • Mar 18, 2009 9:57am Mar 18, 2009 9:57am
Quoting eohater
That close is why I said for everyone short to cover their position and not be afraid to TP on some of it. I'm not sold on the long train just yet. Still short, we get through this 396x area, then we're going down even further. Look at how your h1 is shaping up. Now, we can't trade off of it til it's closed, but, should we close like this, either enter partial short upon opening of new h1 or let price move up the wick to short with SL on the other side of the wick.
Stop hit w/ 1 pip profit just wanted to give it a try
Please ask questions and share your experiences with us all!
  • #2,804
  • Mar 18, 2009 10:00am Mar 18, 2009 10:00am
Quoting swede5150
Good afternoon all,

I have been silently reviewing the thread for a few weeks now.
Everyone's input has been of great help to me in my learning, and obviously the expertise of EO, Infinity etc.. as well as the great work by NYJetfan in the PDF file.
I am making slow steady progress in demo, but as people have said earlier, Demo and Live are two completely different things, and the confidence to pull the trigger on what you see is the hardest thing to master, but with time I am slowly getting there. The amount of times I have thought about pulling...
Wayne, thanks for the input! Your right, pulling the trigger can be the hardest thing to do. We don't want to be wrong in our decision and so many factors that come into play. The best advice I can say is, SEPERATE YOURSELF from your trade. Your trades do not make you up as a person, a good trade doesn't mean your a good person, just like a bad trade doesn't mean your a bad person. It's just a trade. Enter with controll of your risk and let the PA lead the way. Once you can disconnect from the emotional attachment to your money and the failure/success connection to trading, you'll be able to pull the trigger with ease!
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #2,805
  • Mar 18, 2009 10:05am Mar 18, 2009 10:05am
Quoting nyjetfan
Wayne - Does your broker off "micro lots"? By that I mean trading in denominations of 1000 (ie $0.10 per pip)? If so, I think that's a great way to start dipping your feet into the water, as the monetary values won't be that great but still has a little bit of a sting when you see the $10 no longer in your pocket.

That's how I started, and I think the problem with demo is that its monopoly money, so there is absolutely no concerns if you pull the trigger or not, so I never really got the mindset.

Also, I've found that I have my broker configured...

Thanks for the advice.
I knows exactly what you mean about demo being monopoly money.
I try to approach it with a live account mindset and treat it as my own money, hence the hesitancy to pull the trigger, although I ultimately know it is not going to lose me any real money.
I think you're advice is good to just take the plunge and do it, but using the 'micro lots'. As you say a loss of a few pound or dollars ain;t all that bad, less than a good night out!!!!

Thanks for the offer of help with the PDF, it's all good so far, but if there's anything, then donlt worry, I'll defo ask.
  • #2,806
  • Mar 18, 2009 10:07am Mar 18, 2009 10:07am
Quoting FOURX
Hey EO.

Thoroughly enjoying the thread,

I am about to start getting on the bus myself, i will let you know how i fare!

Oh!, by the way, where is the next bus stop?
Cool!

Some would say the next bus stop for shorts would be around 399x.
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #2,807
  • Mar 18, 2009 10:11am Mar 18, 2009 10:11am
Here's something everyone should consider. The candle I have circled is the last weekly candle closed. The one following is our working candle.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart.PNG Size: 51 KB
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #2,808
  • Mar 18, 2009 10:13am Mar 18, 2009 10:13am
Quoting eohater
Wayne, thanks for the input! Your right, pulling the trigger can be the hardest thing to do. We don't want to be wrong in our decision and so many factors that come into play. The best advice I can say is, SEPERATE YOURSELF from your trade. Your trades do not make you up as a person, a good trade doesn't mean your a good person, just like a bad trade doesn't mean your a bad person. It's just a trade. Enter with controll of your risk and let the PA lead the way. Once you can disconnect from the emotional attachment to your money and the failure/success...
Great advice, don't take it personally, let the trade lead the way, and everything else will follow.....just manage it well,
I'll keep learning and with advice from this thread, I ultimately can't go too far wrong I'm sure...
  • #2,809
  • Mar 18, 2009 10:18am Mar 18, 2009 10:18am
Quoting swede5150
Great advice, don't take it personally, let the trade lead the way, and everything else will follow.....just manage it well,
I'll keep learning and with advice from this thread, I ultimately can't go too far wrong I'm sure...
Here's one more piece of advice - a quote from J. Welles Wilder who invented the ADX, RSI and a few other squiggly indicators that you might see on charts these days. If you can master these two points, you're definitely on your way.

'I know traders who can never seem to hang on and follow a good system because of a compulsive need for action. I know other traders who have a greater need to be right most of the time than they have a need for the money they can make' (J. Welles Wilder Jnr. from 'New Concepts In Technical Trading Systems', 1978).
  • #2,810
  • Mar 18, 2009 10:20am Mar 18, 2009 10:20am
Have we got a 'travel size' shampoo forming on the 15m?
Hi, my name is Barry and you can keep your doctor...
  • #2,811
  • Mar 18, 2009 10:21am Mar 18, 2009 10:21am
Quoting cisco
Have we got a 'travel size' shampoo forming on the 15m?
I see what your talking about. Could be that we're finishing the right shoulder now.
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #2,812
  • Mar 18, 2009 10:25am Mar 18, 2009 10:25am
Quoting eohater
I see what your talking about. Could be that we're finishing the right shoulder now.
I wanted 1.3995 before jumpimg in, was that too high
Please ask questions and share your experiences with us all!
  • #2,813
  • Mar 18, 2009 10:26am Mar 18, 2009 10:26am
Quoting eohater
I see what your talking about. Could be that we're finishing the right shoulder now.
We need to get through the m15 50 to do it.
Hi, my name is Barry and you can keep your doctor...
  • #2,814
  • Mar 18, 2009 10:27am Mar 18, 2009 10:27am
Quoting bkg102665
I wanted 1.3995 before jumpimg in, was that too high
At this point I can assume it was
Please ask questions and share your experiences with us all!
  • #2,815
  • Mar 18, 2009 10:28am Mar 18, 2009 10:28am
Quoting cisco
We need to get through the m15 50 to do it.
Here we go! Let's see if she breaks it or continues this tight range.
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #2,816
  • Mar 18, 2009 10:28am Mar 18, 2009 10:28am
EO- If we go through the 50 and 35 does that qualify for a reversal, even if they're inverted (ie hitting 50 before the 35 in this case)?

No rush bro - I've got a lunch appt in 30 minutes and then meetings all afternoon, so I'm most likely done for the day at this point.
  • #2,817
  • Mar 18, 2009 10:30am Mar 18, 2009 10:30am
Quoting bkg102665
At this point I can assume it was
That's why I said 399x. Anywere in that range for a new short position would have been good. 20 sould have come off it by now and covered on the rest should take place if you got in around 399x.
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #2,818
  • Mar 18, 2009 10:31am Mar 18, 2009 10:31am
I would like to see it break the 21ema and then for the MA to hold as resistance for a confirmation of a short. If it burst through then I will catch her on a pull back.
  • #2,819
  • Mar 18, 2009 10:31am Mar 18, 2009 10:31am
Quoting nyjetfan
EO- If we go through the 50 and 35 does that qualify for a reversal, even if they're inverted (ie hitting 50 before the 35 in this case)?

No rush bro - I've got a lunch appt in 30 minutes and then meetings all afternoon, so I'm most likely done for the day at this point.
Do you mean a reversal to go back long?
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #2,820
  • Mar 18, 2009 10:31am Mar 18, 2009 10:31am
Quoting eohater
Here we go! Let's see if she breaks it or continues this tight range.
She's stalling on yesterday's lows.

C'mon girl!
Hi, my name is Barry and you can keep your doctor...
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