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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #24,001
  • Mar 18, 2009 8:24am Mar 18, 2009 8:24am
  •  krue
  • | Joined Mar 2008 | Status: finger scares cat, power of illusio | 410 Posts
Hi, Mike, I was revisiting James16's earliest posts here. looking into the charts he posted, seems quite a lot setups gave very limited profit potentials, while the other few led to tremendous winners. your below answer validates what I observed, so, it is good to know the profit patterns one could expect. to manage trades in consistent manner, it seems there will be two approaches if I am not wrong, either take small profits for every trade with high winning rates, or a lot many of breakevens in exchange for a few very big profit moves. anything in between which requires discretion, to achieve this, seems require huge amount of experience and intuition. huhhh, really a long journey to the other side of the play !

More homework , I knew......

thanks very much, Mike.


Quoting mbqb11
Hey Krue

I don't really have a set answer for you. I really don't even think about pips so to speak. I just manage my trades according to what I believe is the best game plan. I have a eur/jpy open for some 200+ pips and a nzd/jpy for around 100. I only even know that because you asked me so I took a peak. Instead I manage each and every trade based on the situation and the approach I feel is best. I take what the market offers. Sometimes that is a loss/small loss / small win / large win.

Sorry if that isn't what you wer hoping for

Mike
  • #24,002
  • Mar 18, 2009 8:30am Mar 18, 2009 8:30am
Quoting krue
Hi, Mike, I was revisiting James16's earliest posts here. looking into the charts he posted, seems quite a lot setups gave very limited profit potentials, while the other few led to tremendous winners. your below answer validates what I observed, so, it is good to know the profit patterns one could expect. to manage trades in consistent manner, it seems there will be two approaches if I am not wrong, either take small profits for every trade with high winning rates, or a lot many of breakevens in exchange for a few very big profit moves. anything...
I think another point to be added, management of your trade also depends to a large extent on whether you are trading with or counter to the trend.

i.e. if you are trading counter trend you are more likely to adjust your trades to break even as soon as possible or at the 1st sign of resistance whereas trades with the trend you can give a lot more room to breath. Well this is how I have been trying to trade anyway

Just my 2 cents.
  • #24,003
  • Mar 18, 2009 8:30am Mar 18, 2009 8:30am
Hi all - as a total newbie I'd be grateful if one of the old hands could have a look at these two screenshots and critique my analysis of the situation.

  1. This is a weekly chart of U/JPY - the last closed bar is a pinbar
  2. However the close of the pin is not above the open so that counts against it.
  3. Also, to use Mike's term, there is not much 'space' to the left of it (I love that image of a cherry ready for picking by the way!).
  4. There is prior support (the big green pin - sorry I can't be more specific about the date, I'm not at my trading pc just now and only have the screenshots), and no fib convergence - (though there appears to be significant convergence a bit higher up which coincides with that area of support ages ago).
  5. On the zoomed in view we can see that the pin does penetrate almost to the 38% of the shorter scale fib (hopefully drawn the right way round )
  6. On the other hand, the overall trend is down so this might just be the top of a retracement and price is about to break down.
  7. I'm probably missing loads, but that's all I can see just now...

So the big question is should I place a (demo) buy order above the high of that pin? At the moment I don't have enough info/experience to answer that question, but I'm reminded of my old chess teacher's favourite saying - "when in doubt, sit on your hands"! I'd really appreciate your comments.

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When in doubt, sit on your hands...
  • #24,004
  • Mar 18, 2009 9:11am Mar 18, 2009 9:11am
Quoting Gododddin
Hi all - as a total newbie I'd be grateful if one of the old hands could have a look at these two screenshots and critique my analysis of the situation.[list][*]This is a weekly chart of U/JPY - the last closed bar is a pinbar[*]However the close of the pin is not above the open so that counts against it.[*]Also, to use Mike's term, there is not much 'space' to the left of it (I love that image of a cherry ready for picking by the way!).[*]There is prior support (the big green pin - sorry I can't be more specific about the date, I'm not...
Hey bro,

Not an old hand or anything special but my thoughts are on the charts.

Regards,
Jig

EDIT - Hope I was clear . . any questions you have I will try and answer them as best as I can
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  • #24,005
  • Mar 18, 2009 9:16am Mar 18, 2009 9:16am
I am REALLY struggling to stick to Daily charts, I keep going down in timeframes and my account suffers for it. its like a yo-yo up and down.
I'm not sure how long it will take to sink in that Daily is the way to go...
  • #24,006
  • Mar 18, 2009 9:30am Mar 18, 2009 9:30am
Would this old 4hr pic be an example of good divergence? I'm trying to add this to my tool kit but don't really understand what I should be looking for.
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"Whether you think you can or can't, you're right." Henry Ford
  • #24,007
  • Mar 18, 2009 9:32am Mar 18, 2009 9:32am
Quoting advfntrader
I am REALLY struggling to stick to Daily charts, I keep going down in timeframes and my account suffers for it. its like a yo-yo up and down.
I'm not sure how long it will take to sink in that Daily is the way to go...
Sometimes it takes few accounts, sometimes longer... and this is not a joke..

I think you need to develop a patience and take only the best setups.
You can also change all your charts to daily tf and only check them (refuse to go lower) at 5pm est (that's a start of a new day for me). It only takes 10-15 min to scout 30 markets for daily setups... You can throw your daily setups in this thread at the end of the day. I'm sure there will be many to comment on it.
Trading off daily can be very profitable ... with time and practice.

You can also check THIS post. It might help.
  • #24,008
  • Mar 18, 2009 9:32am Mar 18, 2009 9:32am
Hi Gododddin,

I agree with everything that Jigsaw said below. In addition if you read this thread a few times (and daily religiously like I have been doing) you will learn that the MOST important factor in your analysis should be the LOCATION of the Pin/Outside bar etc. not just it's shape.

Put simply here's what you want in an ideal trade set-up:
- Pin/Outside bar that gives you a SELL signal at Swing High.
- Pin/Outside bar that gives you a BUY signal at Swing Low.

Now if you look at your Pin you have a BUY signal but it is at a Swing high so it is invalid. This is not even worth putting it on a Demo account. As Jigsaw mentioned you also have huge resistance at 100 (big round number).

Just my 2 cents...I am still learning... but imho the J16 method rocks and is way better and simpler than anything I've seen in many years.

Rubin.

Quoting Gododddin
Hi all - as a total newbie I'd be grateful if one of the old hands could have a look at these two screenshots and critique my analysis of the situation.[list][*]This is a weekly chart of U/JPY - the last closed bar is a pinbar[*]However the close of the pin is not above the open so that counts against it.[*]Also, to use Mike's term, there is not much 'space' to the left of it (I love that image of a cherry ready for picking by the way!).[*]There is prior support (the big green pin - sorry I can't be more specific about the date, I'm not at my...
  • #24,009
  • Mar 18, 2009 9:33am Mar 18, 2009 9:33am
Scott,

thats not divergence as the MACD is sloping down and price makes a new low also.

If price made a new low but the MACD didn't then that is +ve divergence and vice versa.


Quoting Scot Pippin'
Would this old 4hr pic be an example of good divergence? I'm trying to add this to my tool kit but don't really understand what I should be looking for.
  • #24,010
  • Mar 18, 2009 9:34am Mar 18, 2009 9:34am
Thanks Jig - I was referring to the second bar you examined - I'll try to be more specific in future, sorry about that. What you wrote is very interesting. So when I think it's a pin bar it's always worth looking at the previous bar and combining them to analyse what's going on? I can see that the one I referred to doesn't poke down much below the previous one but I hadn't picked up on the significance of that. In other respects though (just standing on its own for a minute ) doesn't the red bar look like a reasonable pin bar?
When in doubt, sit on your hands...
  • #24,011
  • Mar 18, 2009 9:40am Mar 18, 2009 9:40am
Thanks Rubin - very useful stuff. I still have much to learn, but I'm certain that this is the way to go. I love the time I have to ponder these longer term trades, even if I'm ponderin' em incorrectly just now .

Cheers, G
When in doubt, sit on your hands...
  • #24,012
  • Edited 9:56am Mar 18, 2009 9:45am | Edited 9:56am
  •  krue
  • | Joined Mar 2008 | Status: finger scares cat, power of illusio | 410 Posts
Thanks, MinceMeat, very good point. beyond that, I guess more could be studied, sometimes, market conditions present indirectional, most of my problems are rooted in such situations. however, if one could survive this type of market, he/she could trade in any condition, as stated somewhere by James16. but, I am not meaning I am learning this level of skill now. I am very glad now, was very unhappy an hour ago, coz I was really having no clues where I was wrong. but, after studying in details, I found my problems were with my focus was given to conjestion areas of an obvious uptrend, what a stupid man I am, really idiot, I could say. but, fine, I know what's the problem now. thanks to you and Mike, for the great help

Edit: oops, my brain must be in mess, I mentioned surviving range market skill, when I mentioned this, I was thinking about the setups in James16's posts. anyhow, please ignor this statement, if you would. thank you


Quoting MinceMeat
I think another point to be added, management of your trade also depends to a large extent on whether you are trading with or counter to the trend.

i.e. if you are trading counter trend you are more likely to adjust your trades to break even as soon as possible or at the 1st sign of resistance whereas trades with the trend you can give a lot more room to breath. Well this is how I have been trying to trade anyway

Just my 2 cents.
  • #24,013
  • Mar 18, 2009 9:47am Mar 18, 2009 9:47am
Hey Raczek,

gbp/chf lookds to be heading down to 1.59 again, excellent stuff
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #24,014
  • Mar 18, 2009 9:48am Mar 18, 2009 9:48am
Quoting Scot Pippin'
Would this old 4hr pic be an example of good divergence? I'm trying to add this to my tool kit but don't really understand what I should be looking for.
Hi,
Why don't you give this good indicator a try ? it will draw the lines for you and alert you about divergance when it appears.
The chart remain naked, and you get a good trading advisor.
Dani M.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 FX5_MACD_Divergence_V1.1.mq4   12 KB | 664 downloads
  • #24,015
  • Mar 18, 2009 9:52am Mar 18, 2009 9:52am
1h BEOB through 1.6500 PPZ and major round number.

Couldn't resist for some easy b'day pips

Trailing the stop to see where this one can go...
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  • #24,016
  • Edited 9:59am Mar 18, 2009 9:55am | Edited 9:59am
Good day everyone....demo account noobie here, trying to get my head around these ideas.

Much appreciated if someone can comment on my observations of the following chart and let me know if I am on the right track.

Oanda starts new candles at midnight EST, so there is a lot of time left in the day. But I see what might be a pin bar forming and am thinking if it does I could see a decent break to the downside.

1st support it needs to break through is at the 82.50 level, and if it does maybe ride it down to the 60 EMA before it bounces back up.

Of course, since I'm dreaming....if it can break support at the 60 EMA, it could have a great ride down to the 79.50 levels.

Negatives include not a lot of open space to the left on the chart....so maybe not as smooth a ride as I'd like to see.

And since the nice pin bar on Jan 22 this pair has been on the move up, so I'd be taking a trade counter to the current trend.

And just to show you how flexible I am (or a lack of conviction..hahaha) If today's candle does not form a pin bar but closes above the 150 EMA, the I will be looking the 1st chance to take a retracement bounce off of the 150 EMA and ride it up to the recent highs at 85.8 or so.

Ideas?
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  • #24,017
  • Mar 18, 2009 9:56am Mar 18, 2009 9:56am
Quoting krue
Thanks, MinceMeat, very good point. beyond that, I guess more could be studied, sometimes, market conditions present indirectional, most of my problems are rooted in such situations. however, if one could survive this type of market, he/she could trade in any condition, as stated somewhere by James16. but, I am not meaning I am learning this level of skill now. I am very glad now, was very unhappy an hour ago, coz I was really having no clues where I was wrong. but, after studying in details, I found my problems were with my focus was given to conjestion...
Anytime krue, stick around and if you haven't already, try and get through as much of this thread as possible. If you can stick to what is taught here you will be shocked how easy it can be to be profitable

Good luck with the trading.

MM
  • #24,018
  • Mar 18, 2009 9:58am Mar 18, 2009 9:58am
Quoting Chris P
1h BEOB through 1.6500 PPZ and major round number.

Couldn't resist for some easy b'day pips

Trailing the stop to see where this one can go...

Nice trade and happy b'day bro!
  • #24,019
  • Mar 18, 2009 10:00am Mar 18, 2009 10:00am
Quote
You can also check THIS post. It might help.

Excellent! Now I'm going to read it again...
When in doubt, sit on your hands...
  • #24,020
  • Mar 18, 2009 10:07am Mar 18, 2009 10:07am
Quoting Gododddin
Excellent! Now I'm going to read it again...
I'm curious what you think about that
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