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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #23,981
  • Mar 17, 2009 10:03pm Mar 17, 2009 10:03pm
Quoting dengzhi
how bout no indys? no macd, no nothing. pure bar charts
I don't know about Jim, but you CAN actually see divergence in the pure chart.
All it is is where price has stopped accelerating and you can actually see that on the bare chart if you stop concentrating on the trees. (so to speak )
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #23,982
  • Mar 17, 2009 10:07pm Mar 17, 2009 10:07pm
Quoting bundyraider
I don't know about Jim, but you CAN actually see divergence in the pure chart...
You sure can mate
  • #23,983
  • Mar 17, 2009 10:45pm Mar 17, 2009 10:45pm
to add more confluence to possible usd/cad short off wkly beob at swing high. attached is the cadlfx indicating a wkly buob at swing low w/ room to run to major support.
sunday we will get opec's production cut, attached is a chart of oil showing its creep back up to major ppz (& major round number) of 50.
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Click to Enlarge Name: clj.gif Size: 17 KB
  • #23,984
  • Mar 17, 2009 11:10pm Mar 17, 2009 11:10pm
I bought at G/U last night and it hit my stop loss. I bought it on previous two candles break out and thought trend is continuing upward. But it hit my stop loss.
I am trying to find why it was bad trade. Why should I avoid it any reason. Was my stop loss was not enough to hold this position?
I get loss on my real account but I want to learn from my mistake. So please give any comments to help me to investigate that trade:

I bought at 1.4118 (time was 16 March 23:16) with stop loss 1.4025 and TP at 1.4200.

Jamie,
I will appreciate if you can also get some time to comment on it please.

Thanks in advance for everybody.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #23,985
  • Mar 17, 2009 11:23pm Mar 17, 2009 11:23pm
Quoting 786 trading
I bought at G/U last night and it hit my stop loss. I bought it on previous two candles break out and thought trend is continuing upward. But it hit my stop loss.
I am trying to find why it was bad trade. Why should I avoid it any reason. Was my stop loss was not enough to hold this position?
I get loss on my real account but I want to learn from my mistake. So please give any comments to help me to investigate that trade:

I bought at 1.4118 (time was 16 March 23:16) with stop loss 1.4025 and TP at 1.4200.

Jamie,
I will appreciate if you can...
Hey Jamie

The question I would be asking myself is why would two small 1hr bar highs be enough to continue a trend or movement upwards. My answer would be it would be a very tough trade to take especially on such a small timeframe. Now if you had two matching weekly bar highs, now you can bet that those matching highs or resistance when broken would hold more significance. This is part of the reason James stresses the need to start out on the daily/weekly. Bars hold more power, and then when in the right location hold even more power.

My advice is to stick to the larger timeframes(daily/weekly) when starting out. And look for the big obvious bars. The most common of which are outside bars and pinbars. Big clear obvious bars will tell a much more clear story and are much easier to spot.

If you have more questions let me know

Mike
  • #23,986
  • Mar 17, 2009 11:40pm Mar 17, 2009 11:40pm
Quoting 786 trading
I bought at G/U last night and it hit my stop loss. I bought it on previous two candles break out and thought trend is continuing upward. But it hit my stop loss.
I am trying to find why it was bad trade. Why should I avoid it any reason. Was my stop loss was not enough to hold this position?
I get loss on my real account but I want to learn from my mistake. So please give any comments to help me to investigate that trade:

I bought at 1.4118 (time was 16 March 23:16) with stop loss 1.4025 and TP at 1.4200.

Jamie,
I will appreciate if you can...
I took the same trade at same time on G/J which is much like G/U.
Got out with a small loss a little while ago, but after reading your post and going back analyzing this trade I have come to the conclusion there was absolutely no reason to do this trade other than a short term uptrend from 3/12.
Sh&t happens. Forget about it and move on to the next one.
History is written by the victors.
  • #23,987
  • Mar 18, 2009 1:48am Mar 18, 2009 1:48am
  •  krue
  • | Joined Mar 2008 | Status: finger scares cat, power of illusio | 410 Posts
Mike, talking about daily/weekly TF, how many pips on average would you look at? I noticed the difficulty of trading smaller TFs; when I move on to daily, found very hard to sustain managing a trade more than one day, most times, I had about 150pips, but, I refuse to take profit as I determined to do a position trade ( my understanding on daily TF is something like position trading, correct me if I am wrong, please), that is a duration from one day to a couple of week, therefore, 150pips means nothing to me when I consider using daily. but, most of the results are breakeven if I moved my stop there, or turned into loss if I didn't. therefore, when I came into this post, could not help asking for a benchmark if I may. Thanks a ton, Mike





Quoting mbqb11
Hey Jamie

The question I would be asking myself is why would two small 1hr bar highs be enough to continue a trend or movement upwards. My answer would be it would be a very tough trade to take especially on such a small timeframe. Now if you had two matching weekly bar highs, now you can bet that those matching highs or resistance when broken would hold more significance. This is part of the reason James stresses the need to start out on the daily/weekly. Bars hold more power, and then when in the right location hold even more power.

My advice...
  • #23,988
  • Mar 18, 2009 4:19am Mar 18, 2009 4:19am
good nmornin folks,
anyone using RSI or stochs for divergence try using period 9 for RSI and 9,3,3 for stochs (exponential averages if your platform alows) these setting show the same divergences but gives clearer signals as the swings are slightly bigger.these settings imo are just fast enough for clear and accurate signals.any faster and the signals can become confused.
hope this helps
regards, jon
PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #23,989
  • Mar 18, 2009 5:10am Mar 18, 2009 5:10am
Does anyone have much confluence on GU or GJ pairs with current H1 pin ?
This is what i have on GU, but after some tough fundie news i just dont know ..
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  • #23,990
  • Mar 18, 2009 5:20am Mar 18, 2009 5:20am
I'm no expert, but you bought it when I was looking to sell. That doesn't mean anything but...

1. you bought it on retrace to area of confluence (day-week ppz, rac's favorite retrace - 50fib of 8hr pin)
2..forgot what I was gonna say here
3. I remember... Since you're trading on 1hr TF, I assume you're profitable on weekly and daily TF? If not, you'll find your account grow much faster if you move up a notch.. Trust me.

Anyways, just in case you're curious about my trading plan at a time you went long. If not, just ignore this part below:

I missed that short (aggressive off confluence), but then I got PA (4hr beovb) off of ppz few bars later. Waited for a break, and then a retrace and then finally got my trade last night when I saw price exhausting...

I guess every trader sees different things.. perhaps you' I just got lucky and your long could've gone through the roof... but there was still one problem with that .... FOMC.
From my limited observation - nothing goes through the roof, before that's out of the way... and yes I expect fireworks later today...
You guys watch that e/chf and g/chf....
Happy trading.

Quoting 786 trading
I bought at G/U last night and it hit my stop loss. I bought it on previous two candles break out and thought trend is continuing upward. But it hit my stop loss.
I am trying to find why it was bad trade.
Thanks in advance for everybody.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image
  • #23,991
  • Mar 18, 2009 5:29am Mar 18, 2009 5:29am
Quoting 786 trading
I bought at G/U last night and it hit my stop loss. I bought it on previous two candles break out and thought trend is continuing upward. But it hit my stop loss.
.....
Hi Jamie,

Other than what mike says, that we should start on a larger TF first, mainly daily for me, for I myself had never traded lower than dailies after I found J16.

But other than the TF, your trade could be a profitable one, the two bar highs at the left is what makes your price stops there, if I were you I might move my stop to BE after I saw price reach those highs, the PA about the two bar highs you found is not at the best location too IMO, I think that in this business, location plays an important role, after we found an interesting location (multiple tops/bottoms + confluence /w S/R + divergence), then we look for PA, and after that, we're all set to be right.

But then again, starting off on the dailies for a few months at lest is the best to study this material IMO, and the accuracy level is so high too, I've found out even with a 3:1 Risk/Reward, if you have 75%-80% accuracy on your trades, you'll profit in the long run, not to mention using the corresponding MM.

I'm still an amateur but you ask for opinion so I'm learning to try and give one too, I hope you don't mind.

Good Luck!

Marcel
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  • #23,992
  • Mar 18, 2009 6:28am Mar 18, 2009 6:28am
Quoting 786 trading
I bought at G/U last night and it hit my stop loss. I bought it on previous two candles break out and thought trend is continuing upward. But it hit my stop loss.
I am trying to find why it was bad trade.....
Anyway, the most important point I want to make here from my experience is playing these sort of break trades is trickier than a lot of the set ups we do here. Just my opinion, but my first tip would to be to just watch and observe on those ones for the time being and notice how going with the higher timeframe "trend is your friend" deal is smart.

I'm dead tired after a big day. Otherwise I know I'd have more to say here. lol ....Especially along the lines of showing the areas I like to trade them verses that "potentially in the middle of a new range" one you took yourself. One easy example is momentum "pauses". These are good ones to take these trades, ...where you are in a strong move and the price hits a temporary wall causing a double bottom/top for a bar or three and so on, hammering against that price ...then finally breaks through and continues.

That trade you took was in a potential pull-back zone. ...Which I think Rac or someone pointed out.

Go back and look at Jim's first few pages in this thread (again ) where he examples these at some point. Just about as good examples as you can get on these bars. I think you'll be able to see the difference between the ones he took and yours.

...Right ...now to move the stop on my one lonely trade, take half profit.... ...NO STRESS... ...Die in the butt I think and go to sleep ...LOL
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #23,993
  • Mar 18, 2009 6:37am Mar 18, 2009 6:37am
Quoting raczekfx
I'm no expert, but you bought it when I was looking to sell. That doesn't mean anything but...

1. you bought it on retrace to area of confluence (day-week ppz, rac's favorite retrace - 50fib of 8hr pin)
2..forgot what I was gonna say here
3. I remember... Since you're trading on 1hr TF, I assume you're profitable on weekly and daily TF? If not, you'll find your account grow much faster if you move up a notch.. Trust me.

Anyways, just in case you're curious about my trading plan at a time you went long. If not, just ignore this part...
Rac,

i took that GU trade short last night at 1.3995 prior to that minor retrace. I put a SL just behind what i thought was the ppz at 1.4066. Got stopped out by a few pips then found out this morning that it decided to go where I thought it would.

1. Was my SL too tight? I normally go with a 100 SL or max on the PB.
or
2. Was I dreaming in thinking that a ppz existed at 1.4050.
or
3. Just the way it went.

Did you know it would retrace and should I have waited for after the retrace?

Thanks
  • #23,994
  • Mar 18, 2009 6:37am Mar 18, 2009 6:37am
Quoting pipmyride
Does anyone have much confluence on GU or GJ pairs with current H1 pin ?
This is what i have on GU, but after some tough fundie news i just dont know ..
Still low but we have some serious inside stuff happening on H1 ... can we take a break above even with fundamentals worse than expected ?
Dow futures not much change ...
  • #23,995
  • Edited 7:03am Mar 18, 2009 6:42am | Edited 7:03am
Quoting pipmyride
Still low but we have some serious inside stuff happening on H1 ... can we take a break above even with fundamentals worse than expected ?
Dow futures not much change ...
I get the sense that the market is maybe looking short in anticipation of the 8:30 news. I'm waiting for after that before I do anything.

Pipmyride, I re-read your question and realized that i wasted space with my comment to you. Sorry.
  • #23,996
  • Mar 18, 2009 7:30am Mar 18, 2009 7:30am
  •  Yuppie
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: ̿ ̿ ̿̿'̿̿\̵͇̿̿\=(•̪●)=/̵͇̿̿/'̿̿ ̿ | 2,727 Posts
Quoting bundyraider
Anyway, the most important point I want to make here from my experience is playing these sort of break trades is trickier than a lot of the set ups we do here....

786 trading, may I also add to Bundy's comments that the time was 04:00GMT when the candle closed. Not generally the best time to trade a European/US currency.


Magnus
  • #23,997
  • Mar 18, 2009 7:31am Mar 18, 2009 7:31am
Quoting krue
Mike, talking about daily/weekly TF, how many pips on average would you look at? I noticed the difficulty of trading smaller TFs; when I move on to daily, found very hard to sustain managing a trade more than one day, most times, I had about 150pips, but, I refuse to take profit as I determined to do a position trade ( my understanding on daily TF is something like position trading, correct me if I am wrong, please), that is a duration from one day to a couple of week, therefore, 150pips means nothing to me when I consider using daily. but, most...
Hey Krue

I don't really have a set answer for you. I really don't even think about pips so to speak. I just manage my trades according to what I believe is the best game plan. I have a eur/jpy open for some 200+ pips and a nzd/jpy for around 100. I only even know that because you asked me so I took a peak. Instead I manage each and every trade based on the situation and the approach I feel is best. I take what the market offers. Sometimes that is a loss/small loss / small win / large win.

Sorry if that isn't what you wer hoping for

Mike
  • #23,998
  • Mar 18, 2009 7:38am Mar 18, 2009 7:38am
Hello flyer,
No, I didn't know it was going to retrace, but I'm glad it did since I missed my speculative entry the day before and I didn't want to chase it.
As you probably noticed, my stop was set at 1.4125, just above 2 -4hr bars high and weekly ppz (purlple line on my chart). Should I have your entry, I would still place my stop at 1.4125, but would probably cut my order size in half. When you look at 1hr, price started to form kind of 'arch' last night. That usually adds to my confidence...
I always hide my stops behind good (imo) ppz

damn... just missed fiber long.


Quoting flyer415
Rac,

i took that GU trade short last night at 1.3995 prior to that minor retrace. I put a SL just behind what i thought was the ppz at 1.4066. Got stopped out by a few pips then found out this morning that it decided to go where I thought it would.

1. Was my SL too tight? I normally go with a 100 SL or max on the PB.
or
2. Was I dreaming in thinking that a ppz existed at 1.4050.
or
3. Just the way it went.

Did you know it would retrace and should I have waited for after the retrace?

Thanks
Attached Image
  • #23,999
  • Mar 18, 2009 7:46am Mar 18, 2009 7:46am
Quoting raczekfx
Hello flyer,
No, I didn't know it was going to retrace, but I'm glad it did since I missed my speculative entry the day before and I didn't want to chase it.
As you probably noticed, my stop was set at 1.4125, just above 2 -4hr bars high and weekly ppz (purlple line on my chart). Should I have your entry, I would still place my stop at 1.4125, but would probably cut my order size in half. When you look at 1hr, price started to form kind of 'arch' last night. That usually adds to my confidence...
I always hide my stops behind good (imo) ppz

damn......
That was the first place (the 2 bar high) that i thought about for the SL. Then I did the stupid thing and said to myself...No way it is going above that ppz. I know CW and mike keep drilling it into me that a ppz is a zone but I took it as a line. So SL becomes smaller and lots become larger.

You're right that i should have stretched out the SL to the 2 bar high and lowered the lots.

Safety first. Thanks. Still a work in progress.
  • #24,000
  • Mar 18, 2009 8:20am Mar 18, 2009 8:20am
that weekly us/cad beob just broke by a few pips on my feed if anyone is interested.
PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
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