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  • #76,841
  • Mar 18, 2009 8:09am Mar 18, 2009 8:09am
Quoting F.x.
Can I get a witness.
1.3186 is approx where it will make it's mind up to carry on up or Reverse.
Good Trading. (keep it simple).
  • #76,842
  • Mar 18, 2009 8:10am Mar 18, 2009 8:10am
targeting the 38.2% fib at 1.3327 and a strong resistance area on the daily.
  • #76,843
  • Mar 18, 2009 8:12am Mar 18, 2009 8:12am
Quoting akirax
targeting the 38.2% fib at 1.3327 and a strong resistance area on the daily.
Akirax, would you mind sharing your fib chart? I am new and am curious to see if i have my Fib drawn orrectly at this point on the chart. Thank you.
  • #76,844
  • Mar 18, 2009 8:12am Mar 18, 2009 8:12am
Time for the market to take a breath and see if it wants to keep going or not.
  • #76,845
  • Mar 18, 2009 8:12am Mar 18, 2009 8:12am
Quoting NuckingFuts
Goodgodman, you really should look at an ECN broker if you think they are all out to get you. It's the bucketshops that are after your money.
  • #76,846
  • Mar 18, 2009 8:13am Mar 18, 2009 8:13am
I know its off topic but I live on this thread.

Keep your eye on $/Y.

I have support lines at 98.08, 98.05, 97.90.

Just food for thought.

I was sidelined during that news pop E/$ this morning and feel like Id rather let you all settle it out before I step back in.

With reasonable protectioin to the downside I have an entry order to long $/Y at 98.25
+ Charts Happen
  • #76,847
  • Mar 18, 2009 8:14am Mar 18, 2009 8:14am
Quoting SmoothTrader
Since last fall the forex markets have been trading on "RISK AVERSION." Investors have been scared by the bad economic news throughout the world so they choose to buy US Treasuries (dollars) as a "safe haven."

When economic news is not so bad, like today, they are not as frightened so they want to switch their investments into currencies that will pay higher interest (Euro).

That is why good news for the US economy pushes the US dollar lower.
These people who push money into the higher yielding EURO, what's the point?

I mean, they might get a few days of higher interest in the EURO but then they also need to be sure that the EURO does not fall...which it will probably do soon...and then they need to get that money out and put it back into USD.

It seems really really risky to do that?

Because on the one hand you might get a slightly better yield for a week or so but then you have the volatility of this market which can rise and fall 100pips so easily...

OR, perhaps they just believe that the EUR is superior and they leave their money in it for the long term and take the yield etc. Even though we know that ECB will probably have to lower rates again anyway.

No matter what way I look at it, it seems risky to have this type of strategy at the moment.

But I'm not an experienced trader like you so I don't know. Just wondering if you could shed some light on this issue since you used to trade in the pit.
  • #76,848
  • Mar 18, 2009 8:15am Mar 18, 2009 8:15am
on my opinion shorting the pair could prove to be deadly right now. we should and c how the pair behave around 1.3160s .3180s levels. since we a monthly pivot point there.

anyhow im out with over +100 pips today. now the idea is to wait and see how this spike holds.
DISCIPLINE IS THE KEY TO SUCCESS!!!:nerd:
  • #76,849
  • Mar 18, 2009 8:16am Mar 18, 2009 8:16am
Quoting nms4716
Akirax, would you mind sharing your fib chart? I am new and am curious to see if i have my Fib drawn orrectly at this point on the chart. Thank you.

http://www.thelfb-forex.com/content....=14158#euro_17
  • #76,850
  • Mar 18, 2009 8:19am Mar 18, 2009 8:19am
Quoting altrader
... but then they also need to be sure that the EURO does not fall...which it will probably do soon...
Dont forget though, it would be the THEY as refered to in yoru post that would casue it to go down. So theoretically THEY could hold the Euro up there as long as THEY wanted.

Reatil sellers have almost 0 effect on the prices. But THEY do.
+ Charts Happen
  • #76,851
  • Mar 18, 2009 8:22am Mar 18, 2009 8:22am
Quoting Passholder
Dont forget though, it would be the THEY as refered to in yoru post that would casue it to go down. So theoretically THEY could hold the Euro up there as long as THEY wanted.

Reatil sellers have almost 0 effect on the prices. But THEY do.
hmm yeah true. What you say does make sense there. Although I was under the impression that the forex market is so huge that no one institution can push the market one way or another for long unless there are others who want to do the same.

And then there are the central banks that can push the makret where they want it to go. Although I guess sometimes you get battles between central banks even.

Not long ago I think it was last week the swiss central bank intervened causing chaos in the CHF pairs.
  • #76,852
  • Mar 18, 2009 8:25am Mar 18, 2009 8:25am
Quoting akirax
http://www.thelfb-forex.com/content....=14158#euro_17

Thank You.. Double top @ 1.3138???
  • #76,853
  • Mar 18, 2009 8:25am Mar 18, 2009 8:25am
Quoting altrader
These people who push money into the higher yielding EURO, what's the point?

I mean, they might get a few days of higher interest in the EURO but then they also need to be sure that the EURO does not fall...which it will probably do soon...and then they need to get that money out and put it back into USD.

It seems really really risky to do that?

Because on the one hand you might get a slightly better yield for a week or so but then you have the volatility of this market which can rise and fall 100pips so easily...

OR, perhaps they just believe...
You are assuming that the markets (traders, governments, pension funds, banks, etc.) are rational.

Remember that we have gone through, and still going through, a major financial meltdown that is not business as usual. This is where fear and panic come in.

It may not make the best sense to get out of US Treasuries and shift into Euros, but the markets are just as afraid to get left behind on yield.

It's not a vote of confidence that they switch into the Euro, it's just yield.
  • #76,854
  • Mar 18, 2009 8:27am Mar 18, 2009 8:27am
Is that money that AIG pay to european institute contribute to stronger euro?
  • #76,855
  • Mar 18, 2009 8:31am Mar 18, 2009 8:31am
Quoting sed
Is that money that AIG pay to european institute contribute to stronger euro?

Believe it or not, but yes because they would receive US$'s that they would have to sell and convert, buy, euros.
  • #76,856
  • Mar 18, 2009 8:32am Mar 18, 2009 8:32am
Quoting SmoothTrader
You are assuming that the markets (traders, governments, pension funds, banks, etc.) are rational.

Remember that we have gone through, and still going through, a major financial meltdown that is not business as usual. This is where fear and panic come in.

It may not make the best sense to get out of US Treasuries and shift into Euros, but the markets are just as afraid to get left behind on yield.

It's not a vote of confidence that they switch into the Euro, it's just yield.
Yeah what you say does make sense. Many thanks for your response
  • #76,857
  • Mar 18, 2009 8:35am Mar 18, 2009 8:35am
Quoting got pips?
on my opinion shorting the pair could prove to be deadly right now. we should and c how the pair behave around 1.3160s .3180s levels. since we a monthly pivot point there.

anyhow im out with over +100 pips today. now the idea is to wait and see how this spike holds.
There is one pivot point and the others are upper (resistance) and lower (support) levels.

On a monthly basis the pivot is 1.2757

At 1.3143 there is resistance level - a mid level between R1 and R2, if that is what you are referring to? Maybe what some call M3 or M4?
  • #76,858
  • Mar 18, 2009 8:39am Mar 18, 2009 8:39am
Quoting SmoothTrader
Believe it or not, but yes because they would receive US$'s that they would have to sell and convert, buy, euros.
thanks fo the answer.
personally i feel if AIG do that, so does the other company/institutions that got money from US goverment , must pay some debt or anthing , abroad. can european, asian, mid-east, anywhere.
Obama not just bail out USA, but the world..well, part of it..
  • #76,859
  • Mar 18, 2009 8:39am Mar 18, 2009 8:39am
Quoting altrader
hmm yeah true. What you say does make sense there. Although I was under the impression that the forex market is so huge that no one institution can push the market one way or another for long unless there are others who want to do the same.
In 2006 there was approximately 300 financial institutions that moved the currency markets as they needed. Forex is very manipulated by big money making money. They move trillions a day to make .5% in any direction they need it. It isn't a conspiracy theory, it is the truth.

The trades that we make...wouldn't move the market a pip.
  • #76,860
  • Mar 18, 2009 8:39am Mar 18, 2009 8:39am
Quoting nms4716
Thank You.. Double top @ 1.3138???
As mention. I went in toooo early.
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