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Spud's Predictive MTF Stochastics

  • #1,481
  • Feb 21, 2009 11:06pm Feb 21, 2009 11:06pm
Steve,

Thanks for the PDF, would you mind posting the templates and indicator? Thanks, Mike

Quoting stevewide
well said everyone. I agree also.

Only thing is I seem to be picking good trades with spuds dynamik and PMTFS. I studied deeper this weekend and will study more this week.

Spud's methods appear to me to work but there's so much to miss if not alert.

Presently, I'm -45 in the Gj after having a easy 30 pip profit. 30 pips is not alot for the Gj beast so I didn't close. When it went 60 pips against me I dug deeper to find my mistake is I missed the uptrendline I had drawn on the rope setup from this weekend clearly showing my trade short...
  • #1,482
  • Feb 22, 2009 11:58am Feb 22, 2009 11:58am
Quoting mooselover

The other nifty indicator is "#MTF Multi Stochastic". This one will have the current stoch points wag with real time price move making it difficult to judge where the closing stoch values were, have to drag cursor carefully to correct price for each different stoch to see the value so very time consuming if wanting to study historical trades. Because the current plot wagging it is less than ideal to judge current entries also.
Hi, I Have been using the "#MTF Multi Stochastic" indicator for over a year now ans what I do is go to properties /colours and change the settings so that 1 and 2 are the same colour and on colour 2, set the style to dotted.
What this does is show the wagging portion of the stoch line as a dotted line so its easy to see which part of the relevant stochastic has closed and which hasn't.

On a different note, I think that regardless of what strategy you follow that works for you, there is probably room for MTF stochastics. I can say that when i trade against MTF stochastics (inadvertantly), the trade will fail or stall or both almost universally.

I think Spud has proven to be one of the more genuine and usefull contributors on FF and guess what? He is one of the few if not the only one that hasn't tried to make money out of his work innovations. For that I thank him!
  • #1,483
  • Feb 26, 2009 6:12am Feb 26, 2009 6:12am
[quote=PippinL;2556494]Hi, I Have been using the "#MTF Multi Stochastic" indicator for over a year now ans what I do is go to properties /colours and change the settings so that 1 and 2 are the same colour and on colour 2, set the style to dotted.
What this does is show the wagging portion of the stoch line as a dotted line so its easy to see which part of the relevant stochastic has closed and which hasn't.

Hi i found this thread only 2 days ago and i think is interesting but i think is necesssary to study much because i can see 2 groups of people around this system the first is happy like you whit 1 year and the second after 3 month's is not profitable. Can you show a pic whit your setting maybe you can provide template.?

Thank you for your time..
  • #1,484
  • Feb 26, 2009 3:19pm Feb 26, 2009 3:19pm
[quote=chrys;2565929]
Quoting PippinL
i can see 2 groups of people around this system the first is happy like you whit 1 year and the second after 3 month's is not profitable. Can you show a pic whit your setting maybe you can provide template.?
I'm using the MTF/PMTF technique on a real account, trading mini lots. I'm up to now convinced of the quality of this strategy. I added the main moving averages on the H1 and H4 charts in order to identify the dynamic market boundaries. It helps me identify the best entries and combined with a bit market rythm feeling (cfr Philipp Nell's MACD strategy), you can have the probabilities on your side.

I'll post more feedback as far as I can more results.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: regis.JPG Size: 204 KB
Candles and Stos are telling the truth
  • #1,485
  • Feb 27, 2009 12:18am Feb 27, 2009 12:18am
hi regis2000,

* I'm interested for how long you are already trading based on Spud's MTF?
* Could you share some statistics over this time period?


Thanks so much
__Thanks__ MJ
  • #1,486
  • Feb 27, 2009 2:51pm Feb 27, 2009 2:51pm
It's about 1 month now, nothing relevant for the moment. 3% up this month. As soon as I can give you more figures and feedback, i'll post it here.
Candles and Stos are telling the truth
  • #1,487
  • Feb 27, 2009 5:54pm Feb 27, 2009 5:54pm
I read the first 10 pages or so of this thread more then 2 weeks ago. Starting Monday I will be laid off from my job and at the risk of jinxing myself, I will be trading this method real time with real money starting Monday N.Y. Session.

I am not sure that I trade it exactly as stated in the original posts, but I am defintely not trading with the indicators used in the last half or 2 thirds of this thread.

My risk:reward is not what I would like it to be 2:1, but so far trading this system sporadically, I have never lost a trade. My discipline because I will start with a small amount of money that I can lose is to risk a larger % at the start but once I reach my profit target, i will have made my % for the day and I will not trade anymore.

I will be around to post my trades as they happen and give a screen shot of why I made the trade (I hope). So....have a nice weekend.....Damon
"Keep your eyes on the helpers" - Mr. Rogers
  • #1,488
  • Feb 28, 2009 2:24am Feb 28, 2009 2:24am
Quoting regis2000
It's about 1 month now, nothing relevant for the moment. 3% up this month. As soon as I can give you more figures and feedback, i'll post it here.
Thanks regis2000,

I think 3 % is ok if the DD was not too bad

Anyway - would be nice if you also start your own Journal. Properly you have seen mine (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=144270)
__Thanks__ MJ
  • #1,489
  • Mar 1, 2009 2:13pm Mar 1, 2009 2:13pm
[quote=chrys;2565929]
Quoting PippinL
Hi, I Have been using the "#MTF Multi Stochastic" indicator for over a year now ans what I do is go to properties /colours and change the settings so that 1 and 2 are the same colour and on colour 2, set the style to dotted.
What this does is show the wagging portion of the stoch line as a dotted line so its easy to see which part of the relevant stochastic has closed and which hasn't.

Hi i found this thread only 2 days ago and i think is interesting but i think is necesssary to study much because i can see 2 groups of...
Here is the chart pic of the MTF ind as describrd above. the dotted lines show the unclosed portion of the relevant stochastic. the white is 5 min the blue 15 min the red 30, gold 1hr green 4 hr.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: spuds-mtf.gif Size: 12 KB
  • #1,490
  • Mar 1, 2009 2:55pm Mar 1, 2009 2:55pm
Using Spud's MTF Stos method keeps you away from large drawdowns (or even losses if you can't sustain the pressure). Using the M5 and M1 together to define the entry, in relation to the M15/M30 move will give you a very good entry point. The DD will on depend on how many pips you want to cash in and how far you want to go in the risk --> if you escalate your profits using the longer TF (H1, H4), you will anyway increase your risk (DD). More risks, more profits! My account is too limited to escalate. I'm rather scalping than day trading. Hope to reach a more comfortable balance quite soon!
Candles and Stos are telling the truth
  • #1,491
  • Mar 1, 2009 4:37pm Mar 1, 2009 4:37pm
Hi Spud,

First time poster, long time reader of all your threads. Really appreciate all the time you've spent educating.

I'm an emini trader and have adapted your ideas, just using different time frames (5/15/45/135/D). 30/60 don't divide well into the emini 8:30 CST to 13:15 session, thus 45/135.

Your talk about M# has to rise for H# to continue going down made me wonder if there is a way to determine odds if M# is going to continue rising, causing H# to come up (reversal)? Or will M# reverse and H# will continue going down (continuation).

It is easy to compute the closing price it would take to change the stochastic direction of any given time frame (M15, M30, H1, H4, D)?

Given current price, the price required to change stochastic direction, the size of the average price movement per time frame, and how much time is remaining in the current bar per time frame, it would seam odds of a pullback/continuation or reversal could be made.

Curious what you think and if you have done any experiments in that area?
  • #1,492
  • Mar 18, 2009 6:51am Mar 18, 2009 6:51am


Well just a note to people interesting in Spud's MTF stochastic.

My Journal gets slowly useful: purpose of journal is not to show exact trading setups but to give a reliable transparent evidence of someone trying to make it work(or not work .

with full Transaction log.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=144270
__Thanks__ MJ
  • #1,493
  • Mar 19, 2009 3:21am Mar 19, 2009 3:21am
Hi M_j

Quoting M_j


Well just a note to people interesting in Spud's MTF stochastic.

My Journal gets slowly useful: purpose of journal is not to show exact trading setups but to give a reliable transparent evidence of someone trying to make it work(or not work .
That's great results indeed ! Are the others still in the run (Cindy, JDCompute, ...) ?

I nearly killed my account using other trading methods. That's stupid but the account was very small!
I'm soon starting over, with a bit more live money (2.000 USD). I will try to apply the MTF Stos methodology the best I can, in combination with MA's and TL. I will post real results as soon I as start!
Candles and Stos are telling the truth
  • #1,494
  • Mar 19, 2009 4:20am Mar 19, 2009 4:20am
Quoting regis2000
Hi M_j



That's great results indeed ! Are the others still in the run (Cindy, JDCompute, ...) ?
Sorry hearing about your losses. Don't know about the others for sure: but I don't think so. Had some interaction with Cindy a while ago and she and others of the older MTF stochs people seem to have moved sometime ago to: Tkpower8 ATM http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=137283 (who later got banned).


But there are a couple of people I had chatted who still use at least partially MTF stochs but who might not post much.

I stuck with it - because I see real potential !! In many traders there is a tendency to want immidiately a 'RESULT' and have not the patience to work more on an potential idea.

Of course one has always to weigh up carefully if the invested time is still reasonable to the expected outcome. For me it is still - but I would also not go on for ever as there might be other better options. It is also not my only I trade already a couple of years - but it is one possible trading way - which I think has many advantages and ways to apply. And Spud did indeed do a good job - now it's up to each one to deduce what might work or might not work.

In my case of the Journal: it is only to give other traders a transparent prove (? still must believe that the transaction log I post is true) - which I miss so often.

I would have loved to have had such - because than the questions emphasis would shift from:

Does this really work (or is it only a well done presentation)?

to

Can I make it also work.?


Well that's just my opinion: My tests are still a bit to early to say: It is a real working system - but it looks more and more that it might be workable (actually might be working very well).

I went recentyl even with a subversion live to start slowly getting something back for the invested time.

But basically I'm still in test phase


And I'm one who uses really only MTF stochs and price action in all my tests do far -- and it seems I will not add other filters.
__Thanks__ MJ
  • #1,495
  • Mar 27, 2009 12:16pm Mar 27, 2009 12:16pm
So far my experiment is doing quite good. some of you here might find it useful: does not give detailed setup but full transparent trade history.
__Thanks__ MJ
  • #1,496
  • Mar 28, 2009 10:30am Mar 28, 2009 10:30am
PLANING TO INCREASE MY LIVE ACCOUNT!

If in the next 3 weeks all goes accordingly, I plan to use a subversion of this system on a good middle size account. (till now I used only shortly a more smallish live account)
__Thanks__ MJ
  • #1,497
  • Mar 29, 2009 3:10am Mar 29, 2009 3:10am
At the moment I track 4 accounts using Spud's MTF stochs in contests.

hi if anyone is interested to see more statistics from it,
you can check out some related post: http://www2.oanda.com/cgi-bin/msgboa...sts;u=00006535

Especially the one Topic: Weekly Contests
__Thanks__ MJ
  • #1,498
  • Edited 6:09am Apr 14, 2009 5:47am | Edited 6:09am
Just for anyone interested in Spud's MTF stochastic:

Since mid Nov 2008 I'm playing and testing systems based on Spud's presentations.

So far I'm satisfied - some of my progress with full transaction log can be followed : Journal related to: Spud's MTF Stochastics http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=144270.

Next to my Test DEMO accounts: since a view weeks I'm using a small live account.


As so far the tests are ok - I will be using a good size live account starting sometimes next week.


My estimation is a compound return between 50 - 200% a year with a quite acceptable DD.

There are still a couple of things which I did not test long enough - so I will make some adjustments along the way: but the base looks ok.




ON THIS PLACE I WANT ALSO ONCE MORE SAY: THANK YOU SPUD for sharing here.
__Thanks__ MJ
  • #1,499
  • Apr 15, 2009 3:37pm Apr 15, 2009 3:37pm
Hi MJ

I'm also live trading with a correct account since 3 days ago. So far, good results!

I'm mainly using the sonic mtf stochastic in combination with fibo levels and simple trend lines.

I will read your results / journal and follow your story!

Regis
Candles and Stos are telling the truth
  • #1,500
  • Apr 16, 2009 5:42am Apr 16, 2009 5:42am
regis2000,

good hearing from you trading a bigger live account.

I should be ready by mid next week.

I still plan to do parallel to the live account some of my testing on demo.

But the demo accounts, even the one I track transparently on the journal - does only show half of the picture because of too much changing over the time. But that's the main purpose for the demo.

I WISH YOU ALL THE BEST with the new live account.
__Thanks__ MJ
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