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  • #76,721
  • Mar 18, 2009 3:01am Mar 18, 2009 3:01am
closed mine for now.. gonna wait.. maybe scalp..if this is the new trend building it will be a tug of war with lots of entrys..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #76,722
  • Mar 18, 2009 3:02am Mar 18, 2009 3:02am
Quoting NuckingFuts
The answer lies in the daily and weekly charts

Falling weekly wedge/daily channel has been screaming bull for weeks now.

Also add the price struggled to break through some significant PPZ and you have a pretty little picture.
i have been looking at the daily charts during this whole time. a run up to 1.3300 seemed very possible to me during this whole time if 1.2991 did not hold (what i previously considered the ceiling for a double top leading to a massive drop). Yet we broke through that level and have reached as high as 1.3071. What is so special about that value...other then the trend up from the lows as posted so many times. Even this last run up when reaching 1.3065 should have broken through that level and up to 1.31xx easily. You see...i take pride in interpreting price action 85% of the time with logic behind pa but these past few days....they have been nothing but a blur. Even scalping has proved difficult.

Wait a minute..i figured it out. My broker (ibfx) opens and closes daily candles at the wrong time. This makes interpretation on the longer term very difficult. As soon as i can afford it...gotta get rid of this bucket shop...i mean look at this.

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Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #76,723
  • Mar 18, 2009 3:04am Mar 18, 2009 3:04am
... it could be heading back north from 1.3005. So I've re-entered.
Good Trading. (keep it simple).
  • #76,724
  • Mar 18, 2009 3:11am Mar 18, 2009 3:11am
after 2 biffed entries finally got the move. Targets and direction not an issue timing...yes.This area was a mess apparently had to complete some cycle before falling down. 2902 does look nice. what would also be nice is if we got into the mid 27's Not signalled yet but a potential.

TK
  • #76,725
  • Mar 18, 2009 3:30am Mar 18, 2009 3:30am
Quoting gatorinla
asia market up 23 europe currently down 13... u.s. futures slightly negative... i got nothing there... so maybe you might want to catch up on your paint drying if nothing happens in 15 mn...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u1VEY7ndKCs
drying paint it is.. equitys are flat... bears may get there crack...the king has no clothes will soon drain equitys..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #76,726
  • Mar 18, 2009 3:35am Mar 18, 2009 3:35am
ECB's [TRICHET], repeating comments from last night, says 2010 can be a year of recovery, depending on the return of confidence. Speaking to France's Europe 1 radio he once again stressed that the ECB has already taken many non-standard measures (see story 7.35GMT), amounting to a total injection of Eur600 bn. At the same time, the Bank looks at the situation closely to judge whether it has room for additional measures, but it is important to find a balance between maintaining confidence and the boldness of its decisions. On i/rates he repeats that the ECB had not decided that the current level of 1.5% is the lowest possible. The CB is credible on price stability, but it will remain vigilant. He seems to side with the EU Fin Mins on the issue of the US' calls for increased spending vs the EU's pledge to focus on regulation, saying that the European fiscal stimulus is very large.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #76,727
  • Mar 18, 2009 3:43am Mar 18, 2009 3:43am
Morning / evening everyone.

I wanted to share my observations on gaps with you. We all know there usually appear on sunday. We also know that they are filled within the same day or maximum the week they came up.
I was watching charts for some time and trying to find smaller ones that those weekend gaps, like few pips only. If we look closer to 1min chart its not so difficult to find a lot of them, and they all (well most of them) have one thing in common. They get filled. After some strong moves usually we can see them formed and if they are at least 2-3 pips wide its highly propable they will get filled very fast. I used to scalp using those mini gaps for last few days with my demo account while i had my basic real account left to those bigger trades.
My experiment came with profitable result but sometimes its veru hard to open trade after those mini gaps appear because they are usually filled very fast. If you try the same (maybe you already do/did) i recommend to use your t/p, s/l because after filling it usually bounces in the opposit way. Yeasturday i was watching gap that was filled in same minute and then it went reversed and it was over 10 pips wide each time it moved.

Some charts below as example. I know it might not be nothing new to some of you but i wanted to share my observations / experiment.
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  • #76,728
  • Mar 18, 2009 3:44am Mar 18, 2009 3:44am
check this out folks...this is what one should NOT do...if your interested that is.

now i have mentioned before that over the past 6 weeks i have made roughly 50 pips per day on average. This week....given my strong bear bias i managed to play against the trend and lose. After 15 trades or so (with stop loss on each of 50pips)...i am currently 2 trades in the minus. Now this isnt too bad considering that all my trades have been SELL this entire week when the trend is up. My main problem has been selling at ideal spots yet when strong support was reached (i was sleeping or w/e) i did not close positions and they turned into losses. So that puts us to the current situation

Frustrated from this week's results I have decided to give my bear bias one final go. Now I know for the time being 1.3071 is acting as strong resistance so I decided that it is ok to double up on my regular position (WHICH IS A BIG NONO AS ITS IMPROPER MM) just in the (hope) of a break down. The downside to me being stopped out on both positions....100pips total. The maximum gain potential...100pips + which puts me over the even point for the week.

THIS IS HIGHLY DANGEROUS AND STUPID. it is revenge trading. if you have done this in the past or consider doing it in the future...think twice about it...it is not worth it...youll burn your account quick this way. As for me...if i do get stopped out..done trading until next week as i need to calm my ass down

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Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #76,729
  • Mar 18, 2009 3:50am Mar 18, 2009 3:50am
Quoting dotweb.pl
Morning / evening everyone.

I wanted to share my observations on gaps with you. We all know there usually appear on sunday. We also know that they are filled within the same day or maximum the week they came up.
I was watching charts for some time and trying to find smaller ones that those weekend gaps, like few pips only. If we look closer to 1min chart its not so difficult to find a lot of them, and they all (well most of them) have one thing in common. They get filled. After some strong moves usually we can see them formed and if they are at...
if thats the case when you get out the trade double what you have in it.. for instance your shorting and your gap gets filled your tp should not only get you out but put you back in the position the opposite side of trade to catch the 10... just a thought..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #76,730
  • Mar 18, 2009 3:53am Mar 18, 2009 3:53am
Good Morning /Evening @ all
The best thing that can happen to you is to find out where you're wrong.
  • #76,731
  • Mar 18, 2009 3:56am Mar 18, 2009 3:56am
Quoting NuckingFuts
The answer lies in the daily and weekly charts

Falling weekly wedge/daily channel has been screaming bull for weeks now.

Also add the price struggled to break through some significant PPZ and you have a pretty little picture.
Nucking Futs makes it all sound soooooo easy.......but, hey, this ain't even made a 50% retrace yet.....
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  • #76,732
  • Mar 18, 2009 3:57am Mar 18, 2009 3:57am
THIS IS HIGHLY DANGEROUS AND STUPID. it is revenge trading. if you have done this in the past or consider doing it in the future...think twice about it...it is not worth it...youll burn your account quick this way. As for me...if i do get stopped out..done trading until next week as i need to calm my ass down

good luck
  • #76,733
  • Mar 18, 2009 4:00am Mar 18, 2009 4:00am
Quoting 01donatas
good luck
thanks although i have mixed feelings about this. the way i see it is...if i get stopped out it will be a strong reminder of what not to do if i want to survive in the bussiness. if i do get out at my target areas in the profit...it will be a negative reinforcement of habits of what i should not do (which suggests i may do it again in the future). winning and losing have pros and cons...which is better is the question


Edit: well i just closed both positions and am currently -12 pips for the week. donno how to feel about this...some sleep is in order i guess...
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #76,734
  • Mar 18, 2009 4:01am Mar 18, 2009 4:01am
Quoting psiholog
THIS IS HIGHLY DANGEROUS AND STUPID. it is revenge trading. if you have done this in the past or consider doing it in the future...think twice about it...it is not worth it...youll burn your account quick this way. As for me...if i do get stopped out..done trading until next week as i need to calm my ass down
Thank you this very valuable and honest advice, I have done exactly as you did...doubling up on a trade that went the opposit way. Fortunately I have only done this on my demo account and for exactly the same same reason. It's silly and dangerous and I have written this into my daily trading rules that I am making myself read everyday before trading. Hopefully when I start using my live account I won't fall into this trap.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #76,735
  • Mar 18, 2009 4:04am Mar 18, 2009 4:04am
Quoting psiholog
check this out folks...this is what one should NOT do...if your interested that is.

now i have mentioned before that over the past 6 weeks i have made roughly 50 pips per day on average. This week....given my strong bear bias i managed to play against the trend and lose. After 15 trades or so (with stop loss on each of 50pips)...i am currently 2 trades in the minus. Now this isnt too bad considering that all my trades have been SELL this entire week when the trend is up. My main problem has been selling at ideal spots yet when strong support was...
we had a beautiful angle comming this far north...now that angle is losing its pitch...we did not make a new high... it aint over till the fat lady sings.. this is a tough s/r at 3100.. it was many times in the past..if equitys are driving this move it may be a rough ride..im a pip whore and it dont matter to me.. i figured eventually this thing would head north.. just thought it would make a new low or equal last years first..if this economy improving thing is real im impressed acording to markets. but i dont think it is.. i live near baton rouge and its supposed to be number 1 of the top 10 places to do busines. if baton rouge is in the top 10 then the rest of the country must really suck!! i can take you places were hundreds of houses being built were stopped in the middle of construction..many open to weather.. and their still building hundreds of new subdivsions.. but not new houses to fill them
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #76,736
  • Mar 18, 2009 4:06am Mar 18, 2009 4:06am
Oke TQ, just coming back.

Rgd,
Zamah
------

Quoting walb99
it is called 3_Level_ZZ_Semafor and shows three qualified highs/lows.
Can be usefuld together with confirming support and resistance levels.
Gold is Money but Money is not Gold
  • #76,737
  • Mar 18, 2009 4:07am Mar 18, 2009 4:07am
Quoting realjumper
Thank you this very valuable and honest advice, I have done exactly as you did...doubling up on a trade that went the opposit way. Fortunately I have only done this on my demo account and for exactly the same same reason. It's silly and dangerous and I have written this into my daily trading rules that I am making myself read everyday before trading. Hopefully when I start using my live account I won't fall into this trap.
glad to be of help. my recommendation to you is when you go live...start with small pip sizes. there is another beast to trading you have yet to discover. when you go live....emotions will be your strongest obstacle. You will understand when you have your first losing trade...or lets say 3-5 losing trades in a row.....if you manage to keep your cool after up to 10losing trades in a row...you will go far in this bussiness.
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #76,738
  • Mar 18, 2009 4:09am Mar 18, 2009 4:09am
Quoting gatorinla
if thats the case when you get out the trade double what you have in it.. for instance your shorting and your gap gets filled your tp should not only get you out but put you back in the position the opposite side of trade to catch the 10... just a thought..
Good point gatorinla. You are right this is good idea to do that but main problem with scalping those mini gaps is they are filled usually very quickly so to open trade for filling there isnt much time and you would also need some more time to set a reverse buy,sell limit and this can be difficult. Those gaps usually appear when there is some strong movement in any direction but we aint living in perfect world so they also appear close to the bottom of actual move. As i said it is good for scalps and it needs from trader to work fast.
We had one like that on move down minutes ago at 1.3005-1.3004 it moved down to 1.2999 and came back to 1.3005 so it was just 3 pips to collect (2pips spread). Taking short after it was filled would give us another 18 pips profit at its maximum point.
As i write this there was another one and got filled as well.

But remember not everyone gets filled. Most of them do but not 100%.
  • #76,739
  • Mar 18, 2009 4:18am Mar 18, 2009 4:18am
Quoting psiholog
check this out folks...this is what one should NOT do...if your interested that is.

THIS IS HIGHLY DANGEROUS AND STUPID. it is revenge trading. if you have done this in the past or consider doing it in the future...think twice about it...it is not worth it...youll burn your account quick this way. As for me...if i do get stopped out..done trading until next week as i need to calm my ass down
Psiholog i tried this several times with my demo account, and honestly it was always bad for me. Luckily for me it was only demo, i never did that on real account because i know how wrong it can go. Its better to have none profit or less profit than average i want than have few times more loss.

But i hope you will get lucky and you can hit your TP in no time

By the way i`m bearish as well.
  • #76,740
  • Mar 18, 2009 4:18am Mar 18, 2009 4:18am
Quoting psiholog
glad to be of help. my recommendation to you is when you go live...start with small pip sizes. there is another beast to trading you have yet to discover. when you go live....emotions will be your strongest obstacle. You will understand when you have your first losing trade...or lets say 3-5 losing trades in a row.....if you manage to keep your cool after up to 10losing trades in a row...you will go far in this bussiness.
Thank you. My thinking is, and hopefully will remain, is to remember the story about the tortoise and the hare. Slow and steady will win over fast and furious every time. With my demo trading now, I intentionally depleted the account until the funds remaining is more or less the same as the live funds that I have in the live account. That was I hope to simulate the 'real thing' as closely as possible. It's been two months now and I have more than doubled the total funds, although there have been losses along the way. If the best I can do is to make 10 pips per day, then that's fine with me....it's 10 more than I had when I got out of bed!! If I can make more than 10 pips, well that's a bonus. I have gone to bed at night with losses twice, once with -10 and once with -16 pips. I just have to make sure that I stick to my plan.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
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