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  • #76,641
  • Mar 17, 2009 11:48pm Mar 17, 2009 11:48pm
It will be ranging until the FOMC statement later.

A fall in equities following the statement should be followed by a sharp decline in the Euro. Until then, it's anyone's guess.

If the statement is positive, then it's expected that the uptrend will continue. We should then see 1.3070 tested very soon after that.

For those with positions within this range right now, I'd suggest closing them or putting a very tight stop loss nearing the statement release.
  • #76,642
  • Mar 17, 2009 11:49pm Mar 17, 2009 11:49pm
That said, when it finally breaks up or down, it will be a very sharp one as everyone will be jumping on the bandwagon looking to ride it out.
  • #76,643
  • Mar 17, 2009 11:49pm Mar 17, 2009 11:49pm
Quoting ak4x
No!! Please John... not Barry!!

You guys don't want to know....
You're right, that's like peeing the bed. I won't do it.

I just realized I can't remember actually contributing any analysis or sentiment to this thread, so for the record here goes:

(No chart because they can only be understood through the eyes of the great ganja plant) But my shorts have been buried since 1.3020 and I'm waiting to get out. In fact all week has been like that.
What's that smell?
  • #76,644
  • Mar 17, 2009 11:50pm Mar 17, 2009 11:50pm
Quoting altrader
What is the difference between a floor pivot and a standard pivot.

Standard pivots i use at
http://www.actionforex.com/technical...-200603205734/

But is a floor pivot the same thing as what is the link above?
Yes they are one and the same.

Standard meaning the standard calculation of pivots which originated with floor traders on the exchange trading floors.
  • #76,645
  • Mar 17, 2009 11:52pm Mar 17, 2009 11:52pm
EUR-USD made an inside bar on the DAILY Chart. As long as we don't break above 1.3093 on Weekly chart we are bearish.

On 4 H chart we are continuing to close inside the up-trend channel. A close below this channel and we can see the prices rapidly move down, though there is a lot of support (See Chart).
Attached Images
  • #76,646
  • Mar 17, 2009 11:58pm Mar 17, 2009 11:58pm
Quoting gatorinla
looks like grandma drinking her morning coffee pattern to me. the left is higher then the right..just as i recall
I saw your grandma in a national geographic magazine when I was 12. Small world.
What's that smell?
  • #76,647
  • Mar 18, 2009 12:02am Mar 18, 2009 12:02am
Quoting Spsantos
Current volatility helps counter-trend trades, don't confuse with actual trend, and how to determine the actual trend (on whatever TF). Jacko's method is pretty effective to determine that (Ok, i'm lucky i have a 6 years old son )

Thanks! I will borrow him for trade calls hehe. I am a sr trader. I agree the trend is your friend unless you are at a retrace or trend reversal and this area is showing a lot of those signs to me.

whether or not I am right or wrong all of my trade have fantastic RR. My desk is structured so that I could potentially lose 6-7 out of 10 and still be ahead. If the move continues I can let it move trailing it further increasing my reward vs risk, hence offsetting any potential losses due to faulty analysis.

The trades I have posted here today 1 was 7:1 and hit one pip shy of my target. My stop was the high of that particular move.The second was early and got stopped for a loss of 5%.

I would have to lose 6 more trades today to be flat currently. I would seriously be surprised if this trade doesn't complete. If ever in doubt, move stop to be or be +1 on a sr level if possible or don't execute to begin with.

Also you can manually trail and execute stop on discretion in profit. If this trade fails I am flat looking to go long on a range upbreak in which case i will recoup my loss plus more on a good set up. I will more then likely exit at BE +1 if it approaches.

Again risk management, worst case I am up 25% on the day and even though best case is a gamblers logic.. best case is +85% on the day.

I don;t really care about wins or losses only the perceived/imagined qualty of the trades I do take. That was a lesson I learned a long time ago. Being right all the time is improbable and not needed in my opinion.

TK
  • #76,648
  • Mar 18, 2009 12:04am Mar 18, 2009 12:04am
Quoting altrader
Hi guys. Seeking your opinons on the chart below.

On 3hr time frame we see price in an uptrend.

Looking at the momentum on that chart it is in a nice down trend.

Is this indicative of a slowing in energy in this uptrend, and are we looking at a down trend that is due to form during the London session?
Price has to confirm otherwise momentum can just be slowing down only to resume if price resumes its current trend.
  • #76,649
  • Mar 18, 2009 12:05am Mar 18, 2009 12:05am
Its not that easy to know actual trend heading OR its depends on your wallet size.

monthly : Up
Weekly : Up
daily : Down
1H : Up
15H : Up
5M : Up
1M : Up

The rest does not matter like 4H(down) or 30M(Up) for me.
Which one you following ?

for me I have long term trade still short following the Daily charts. Just closed the medium term trade from 1.2945 - 1.3034 for some nice pips.

I do scalp 5-20 pips from here and there. in the end its all about money

as you see its not that easy to follow the trend any time its can break. There are days like we see all up or all down and I have to be a fisherman to handle all that wait
http://sharp-eye.org/cello/files/200...-fisherman.jpg
Follow The Trend
  • #76,650
  • Mar 18, 2009 12:05am Mar 18, 2009 12:05am
TK you're absolutly right on that
Traders are smartasses
  • #76,651
  • Mar 18, 2009 12:09am Mar 18, 2009 12:09am
You are right and i think it all about the wallet ...pips or no pips large margin can make more money even the pips is small, but risky to do..

Quoting Dagger
Its not that easy to know actual trend heading OR its depends on your wallet size.

monthly : Up
Weekly : Up
daily : Down
1H : Up
15H : Up
5M : Up
1M : Up

The rest does not matter like 4H(down) or 30M(Up) for me.
Which one you following ?

for me I have long term trade still short following the Daily charts. Just closed the medium term trade from 1.2945 - 1.3034 for some nice pips.

I do scalp 5-20 pips from here and there. in the end its all about money

as you see its not that easy to follow the trend any time its can break. There are days...
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #76,652
  • Mar 18, 2009 12:14am Mar 18, 2009 12:14am
Quoting SunTrader
Price has to confirm otherwise momentum can just be slowing down only to resume if price resumes its current trend.
Thanks for the response SunTrader. And I also saw your other response indicating that standard pivots are = floor pivots. This is good
  • #76,653
  • Mar 18, 2009 12:16am Mar 18, 2009 12:16am
Quoting Dagger
Its not that easy to know actual trend heading OR its depends on your wallet size.

monthly...
Dagger, it really depends on your trading style/strategy;
i.e: for day traders, H1/H4 trend should be the most significant, for those that trade within a week, daily tf trend would matter most.
if you scalp even lower tf's, aiming for a few pips for each trade, the trend itself doesn't matter that much, unless you want to score a runner.
But for those with long term positions, fundamentals are the key, and usually a big account too
Traders are smartasses
  • #76,654
  • Mar 18, 2009 12:25am Mar 18, 2009 12:25am
Hey Gator, got that YouTube link to the paint drying video?
Not all sins are created equal
  • #76,655
  • Mar 18, 2009 12:27am Mar 18, 2009 12:27am
Quoting Jay Walker
Hey Gator, got that YouTube link to the paint drying video?
A nice 10 minutes worth:
Inserted Video
  • #76,656
  • Mar 18, 2009 12:29am Mar 18, 2009 12:29am
Quoting donfriday
You are right and i think it all about the wallet ...pips or no pips large margin can make more money even the pips is small, but risky to do..
exactly. I hear some traders say the trend is up or down but what time frame they following and how much they looking for ? is it 5 pips or 1000 pips its all about the wallet and MM
Follow The Trend
  • #76,657
  • Mar 18, 2009 12:31am Mar 18, 2009 12:31am
Quoting Jay Walker
Hey Gator, got that YouTube link to the paint drying video?
Inserted Video


they added some cool stuff to it.. i love the ending
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #76,658
  • Mar 18, 2009 12:34am Mar 18, 2009 12:34am
Quoting Spsantos
Dagger, it really depends on your trading style/strategy;
i.e: for day traders, H1/H4 trend should be the most significant, for those that trade within a week, daily tf trend would matter most.
if you scalp even lower tf's, aiming for a few pips for each trade, the trend itself doesn't matter that much, unless you want to score a runner.
But for those with long term positions, fundamentals are the key, and usually a big account too
for scalping its good to know the trend at least the 15M or 1H trend just to be in safer side but as you said its doesn't matter. Indeed big account is the key in forex. the bigger the account the more days you can leave your trades open until you see the right time to exit for -+ depend on the strategy
Follow The Trend
  • #76,659
  • Mar 18, 2009 12:36am Mar 18, 2009 12:36am
Quoting Jay Walker
Hey Gator, got that YouTube link to the paint drying video?
this may be one of interest..

Inserted Video


grass growing
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #76,660
  • Mar 18, 2009 12:36am Mar 18, 2009 12:36am
Seems I didn't miss much while I was gone except cheese cake and cheese whiz
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