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  • #76,201
  • Mar 16, 2009 10:54pm Mar 16, 2009 10:54pm
Quoting djambazov84
all day and all night
Me too without reaching the holster for last 24 hours. Intend to build long positions until it hits 1.2750. Target for average long between 1.2800/1.2850. Will book loss if it gets below 1.2700. TP between 1.3450 and 1.3500. But that is just me, follow your own plans.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #76,202
  • Mar 16, 2009 10:58pm Mar 16, 2009 10:58pm
Quoting gatorinla
i think about it all the time.. if it started i missed some of it.. i may be sold soon..
It offers a very attractive r/r and things look more clear then they were when I average out at 1.2550 but chicken out later.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #76,203
  • Mar 16, 2009 11:01pm Mar 16, 2009 11:01pm
GL and keep on longing until a failure signal is generated..........
  • #76,204
  • Mar 16, 2009 11:04pm Mar 16, 2009 11:04pm
Quoting Chicky
It offers a very attractive r/r and things look more clear then they were when I average out at 1.2550 but chicken out later.
im a pip ho and will just follow the trend..and do my best to have advantage r/r... where still at that pivot point that 500 pips wide..since its covers such a large time span on charts.. not a number an area..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #76,205
  • Mar 16, 2009 11:05pm Mar 16, 2009 11:05pm
Looking at the US$ index which has a breakout down out of the channel but hasn't extended beyond 100% projection (magenta) of the largest previous swing is also what I am looking at for confirmation if EU bullish move is for real or not.
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  • #76,206
  • Mar 16, 2009 11:07pm Mar 16, 2009 11:07pm
Quoting 99vt66
GL and keep on longing until a failure signal is generated..........
Thanks. i appreciate your concern. I have considered that too. Willing to and in a position to pay the price.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #76,207
  • Mar 16, 2009 11:10pm Mar 16, 2009 11:10pm
whens the last time a gator chased you in a river?
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #76,208
  • Mar 16, 2009 11:13pm Mar 16, 2009 11:13pm
Quoting Chicky
Anyone thinking of a big W on daily chart?
open to interpretation really...depends how far you look back (cant remember where i heard it although i have found it to be quite accurate...when looking at candlesticks the last 100candlesticks are the most relevant no matter what timeframe)...one could say were even witnessing a h&s formation and were pretty much at the shoulderline.

as long as we are in between 1.3300 and 1.2300 this is all scalp territory with direction over the longer term unknown. there was a quote doblece used in her signature..not sure if she still does. it says..."the market can stay irrational longer then you can stay rational". For the time being...I find that to be very much the case as equities (which i still think was a dead cat bounce) rallied much higher and much faster then anyone could have imagined..dragging the eur/usd with it. In the end...nothing has changed fundamentally so I find taking it one day at a time is ideal for now as we are still rangebound...even for longer term traders.

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Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #76,209
  • Mar 16, 2009 11:14pm Mar 16, 2009 11:14pm
Quoting psiholog
A break of that level suggests a run down...
See traderathome's post on that rising wedge you have pictured:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=425
  • #76,210
  • Mar 16, 2009 11:19pm Mar 16, 2009 11:19pm
Quoting psiholog
...one could say were even witnessing a h&s formation and were pretty much at the shoulderline.....
Only problem I have with the shampoo you pointed out is that it's not at the end of a bull run. Much less likely to play-out. Still, one to take note of.

The double bottom (occurring at the end of a bear run) is the more dominant pattern (also visible on the weekly and monthly charts).
  • #76,211
  • Mar 16, 2009 11:23pm Mar 16, 2009 11:23pm
Just 2 fundamental points:

.1- There are no 401ks in Europe

.2- USD index is related to several pairs whose correlation has been changing greatly lately.

The beans are in the plate.
Traders are smartasses
  • #76,212
  • Mar 16, 2009 11:24pm Mar 16, 2009 11:24pm
Quoting gatorinla
whens the last time a gator chased you in a river?
I was eaten alive a few months back when Asians pushed it down from 1.3000 cilff. Eversince trying to figure out how to minimize risk if markets remain insane till I remain solvent. Finally my 11 year old son offered me a solution. Going to try this time ........... from his pocket money. He has inhereted trading blood from both sides, and should pay if it fails.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #76,213
  • Mar 16, 2009 11:27pm Mar 16, 2009 11:27pm
Quoting TradeWell
See traderathome's post on that rising wedge you have pictured:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=425
i read it but honestly i dont understand it haha. this is due to the fact i dont know what divergence is! Especially bearish divergence. It's not something i want to learn about either as it would make my very simple interpretation methods much more difficult but i have taken note of it...his opinion is valued to me..just like the opinion of a few others in here (latest scottyB). While I understand fibs, most methods that involve indicators I dont understand so ill just sit back and analyze their analysis and think...good points..you have strong reasons for what your interprations are even though I have no idea what your talking about haha. There was talk of fibonacci fan earlier...that got my head scratching too

sidenote: i forgot to mention...things that help improve my own strategy...i study greatly as one's strategy is never going to be perfect. just giving credit where credit is due
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #76,214
  • Mar 16, 2009 11:28pm Mar 16, 2009 11:28pm
I'll see if I can dig up a study done on H&S patterns.

From memory, 75% of the confirmed reversal type patterns played-out. Where less than 10% that were a continuation type pattern played-out.
  • #76,215
  • Mar 16, 2009 11:34pm Mar 16, 2009 11:34pm
i have found only entering on a trendline anticipated bounce helped me.. you got a limited sl not far out the trend.. and if your trend is wide you got lots of potential..half way through to the other side close half and put the rest at be plus a few.. get out if you think its reversing while still in the money...entries to me are very important.. you know where to get out before you enter..why pick a trade with r/r of 1/1 when there are some 4/1 or better... much better odds the wider the channel...
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #76,216
  • Mar 16, 2009 11:34pm Mar 16, 2009 11:34pm
Quoting psiholog
i read it but honestly i dont understand it haha.
Actually I was referring to the wedge, knowing that you don't use indicators (except chart patterns hehe).
  • #76,217
  • Mar 16, 2009 11:38pm Mar 16, 2009 11:38pm
Quoting TradeWell
Actually I was referring to the wedge, knowing that you don't use indicators (except chart patterns hehe).
ah that part i fully agree with. and seeying just how massive this wedge is in just one week(500pips + and counting)...a bear run down to make up those 500pips should be quite fast, not to mention the break through the strong support level that will follow. Unless we have a repeat of december, this should happen over the next few weeks...
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #76,218
  • Mar 16, 2009 11:41pm Mar 16, 2009 11:41pm
Quoting psiholog
ah that part i fully agree with. and seeying just how massive this wedge is in just one week(500pips + and counting)...a bear run down to make up those 500pips should be quite fast, not to mention the break through the strong support level that will follow. Unless we have a repeat of december, this should happen over the next few weeks...
Hmmmph...
  • #76,219
  • Mar 16, 2009 11:50pm Mar 16, 2009 11:50pm
Quoting Bemac
Hmmmph...
Thank you Malcolm, Belekas, Jim, raczekfx and Ryanmcd !
  • #76,220
  • Mar 16, 2009 11:51pm Mar 16, 2009 11:51pm
Quoting gatorinla
i have found only entering on a trendline anticipated bounce helped me.. you got a limited sl not far out the trend.. and if your trend is wide you got lots of potential..half way through to the other side close half and put the rest at be plus a few.. get out if you think its reversing while still in the money...entries to me are very important.. you know where to get out before you enter..why pick a trade with r/r of 1/1 when there are some 4/1 or better... much better odds the wider the channel...
Excellent.

Also, big time frames offer more opportunities of a better r/r, negligible spread cost, less noise, and oppotunity of entering gradually that limit drawdowns in case direction reverses too early on us.
The Thief of Wall Street
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