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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #23,861
  • Mar 16, 2009 11:38am Mar 16, 2009 11:38am
Quoting Chris P
Hi Jim,

I like this setup quite a bit for the confluence of factors: PPZ, trendline support, confirming PA. This is definitely a setup that I'll be moving my stop to BE fairly quickly though. Some traffic to get through right around 1.2750 to start with. This one will either be a B/E trade for me, or looking to TP right around 1.2800

Best,
Chris
Many times on BUOB/BEOB, Price will retrace to the previous Bar High/Low. I didn't place my order due to the traffic you mentioned. Looked too tight for me. It could very well work out nicely.

I agree, its a setup that we look for around the PPZ levels.
Attached Image
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #23,862
  • Mar 16, 2009 11:40am Mar 16, 2009 11:40am
Quoting supremeChaos
Chris P,
confluence of analysis...
TL has been holding so far.. let's see if it still holds for very long, as daily & weekly are fairly bearish.
Lol, the more confluence the better!

I'm still very aware of the bearish sentiment on this pair, which is why my targets and trade management will both be very tight (assuming I get a chance to put them into play!).
  • #23,863
  • Mar 16, 2009 12:08pm Mar 16, 2009 12:08pm
Hi Marcel,

yes, this is just random distribution respecting the probability and amount of dollars you win or loose on your trades.
So for example if you know you win in 75pct of all your trades, just put 0.75 to the probability field, if you know what is your average Win in dollars, put it bellow the Win field, if you know what is your avg. loss, put it to the loss field and observe how it develops in 1000 runs. Or you can just play with the values if you don't know exact numbers. E.g. from your backtesting you should at least know what is your +-stable probability of win - let's say 75pct. So you can enter 0.75 to the probability field, you can enter in your loss rate -100 (meaning -100 percent if you loose the trade) and 50 (meaning that your PT is set 50pct above/bellow High/Low of the preceding pinbar or whatever else) in your Win rate. In this scenario you can see that you'll be profitable in the long run.
From the simple math:
[Win probability] x [Win rate] > [1-Win probability] x [Loss rate in abs. numbers].
In our case:
0.75x50>0.25*100 => 37>25 => we will win in these markets :-)
The bigger difference between both sides of this inequality, the better is your trading. If your trading stats don't fit this, you will loose money.
I hope I didn't make you more confused than before :-) Play little bit with these numbers and you will find the proper way.

Cheers,
Ajchi


Quoting marcelnyo
Hi Ajchi,

Thanks for the spreadsheet, I have to ask though, how are the sums calculated? is it a random distribution of win/lose in 1000 trades?
  • #23,864
  • Mar 16, 2009 12:36pm Mar 16, 2009 12:36pm
Quoting ajchi
Hi Marcel,

yes, this is just random distribution respecting the probability and amount of dollars you win or loose on your trades.
....
Wow... I'll have to jot that down somewhere first to make the calculations more clear... I'll get back to you if there is any question, this is great ajchi
  • #23,865
  • Mar 16, 2009 12:50pm Mar 16, 2009 12:50pm
Quoting ajchi
Hi Marcel,
yes, this is just random distribution respecting the probability and amount of dollars you win or loose on your trades.
~~~
From the simple math:
[Win probability] x [Win rate] > [1-Win probability] x [Loss rate in abs. numbers].
~~~
Cheers,
Ajchi
I just use this to get my trade profitability...
http://strosbro.mlblogs.com/photos/u...rized/15_1.gif
Maybe that's my problem....
  • #23,866
  • Edited 1:16pm Mar 16, 2009 1:02pm | Edited 1:16pm
Quoting johnnyonspot
Nope, not me, but I am looking at it now.
so did you take a good enough look?

Quoting Fx_Genius
Got stopped out +207. A winner is still a winner.

On my chart looks like PPZ area, will need to see it move first before I pick direction.
I have it at 2.43 and plan to take some off this level...

Quoting BWise
At what point in this trade did you move your stop to BE?
at +130 pips.

Quoting bakko85
I took it but exited too early..
Could you elaborate a bit more on this Bakko? You exited early because...?


Quoting pakiestra
Hi Ghous

I'm in that trade from its beging, it's giving nice pips + swap so I don't mind to vintage it la bit longer. (or at least to wait for some PA showing bigger retracement). It's all virtual (on my demo) but I don't mind. Maybe when I will be ready for a live account the market will sorts its out at the end. Who knows
Here is a weekly chart with some T/P lines (red) to take, I don't know if correct or not and would be grateful for your insight.
Attachment

I know the pair will retrace some but I don't mind it at all.
Have a great trading week.
Regards
That's my boy! LOL!

Welldone Buddy I wanted to see if somebody held on to it

*****--------------------------------*****

Anyways the Weekly BEOB is looking good,

As planned I've taken some off just above the 2.43 level leaving the rest to meet 2.4, still thinking over SL adjustment
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I believe . . .
  • #23,867
  • Mar 16, 2009 1:13pm Mar 16, 2009 1:13pm
Quoting ady27
....Boy, this was hard. leaving the "real" world to practice on demo.
Nice post Ady,

I could relate a great part of that anecdote to my own personal experiences,

I also got the idea to trade on the FX markets (rather than the silly MLMs and doublers, and HYIPS I was intially involved in) occurred to me on a fine evening on a rocking chair in my balcony.

You've got to be seriously lucky to have told yourself to venture into the J16 thread.

Best part is that you understood that what worked in other aspects of success you're looking for in your life (jumping onto to the racetrack so soon) is not going to work in forex. The other epigram you came up with was obviosuly to convince yourself to follow all of James recommendations.

Wish you all the luck in trading and life Ady,

Regards,
Ghous.
I believe . . .
  • #23,868
  • Edited 2:11pm Mar 16, 2009 1:27pm | Edited 2:11pm
Quoting marcelnyo
Wow... I didn't expect to have so many replies in such little time, this public forum sure is a great place, there are plenty of good people here, Thanks a lot for the replies .

I'd like to try and post a chart, since I think it's how most of the pro members here started, I'm currently long on Gold, from 914 on a break of the inside bar over the support at 890 , I also added a second position on 925 (out of the blue) which got closed on B/E earlier...

I'm trying to enter early on the double weekly pinbar on gold, But the pin/neutral bar on 2...
You can create an entire world for yourself using personal aplomb only

Nice to C ya around Marcelnyo,

Great work with not closing your gold trade Monday open, it's easy ro stay away from such childish acts when you're on micro, standard at a decent pip value can be very different and one of the major challenges is ofcoarse to get ready to trade big one day with keeping emotions synchronized with the micro approach

Regards,
Ghous.
I believe . . .
  • #23,869
  • Mar 16, 2009 1:54pm Mar 16, 2009 1:54pm
Ghous,

How do you draw short PPZ lines on your chart?

Thanks,
  • #23,870
  • Mar 16, 2009 1:59pm Mar 16, 2009 1:59pm
this looks good to me ,nz/us 4h pin lovely swing high,loads of space.good ppz and fib confluence
close in 5 mins
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PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #23,871
  • Mar 16, 2009 2:07pm Mar 16, 2009 2:07pm
Quoting Pirabuji
Ghous,

How do you draw short PPZ lines on your chart?

Thanks,
Are you referring to the horizontal line segments?

You draw them using the trendline option just set both the parameters to a single price level (make sure you have left the box saying "Ray" in the parameters tab in th options of your trendline unchecked)

Regards,
Ghous.
I believe . . .
  • #23,872
  • Mar 16, 2009 2:08pm Mar 16, 2009 2:08pm
Quoting g_j_hook@yah
this looks good to me ,nz/us 4h pin lovely swing high,loads of space.good ppz and fib confluence
close in 5 mins
Looks good Gj

Regards,
Ghous.
I believe . . .
  • #23,873
  • Mar 16, 2009 2:11pm Mar 16, 2009 2:11pm
Quoting g_j_hook@yah
this looks good to me ,nz/us 4h pin lovely swing high,loads of space.good ppz and fib confluence
close in 5 mins
I'm watching that as well.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #23,874
  • Mar 16, 2009 2:24pm Mar 16, 2009 2:24pm
Quoting ghous
Are you referring to the horizontal line segments?

You draw them using the trendline option just set both the parameters to a single price level (make sure you have left the box saying "Ray" in the parameters tab in th options of your trendline unchecked)

Regards,
Ghous.
Hi Ghous, I've just found this option myself, really fascinating what you can found out from a simple curiousity, I owe my thanks to pirabuji too for pointing this out.

And indeed it is so pleasant here, there are so little of those noises that we can find in other public forums, most if not all people here are very helpful and sincere.

Yes I agree too, if I've traded a mini account or a standard pip value of 1-10$ per pip, I'd surely closed all of the trades at 935 friday.

Because it's micro, it's hanging there, wouldn't be my best exit...

Btw, I can't seem to find any PB on the NZD/USD H4, must've been my feed (feeds), but I'm still sticking to daily, so I'll just watch from the sides for this trade.
  • #23,875
  • Mar 16, 2009 2:27pm Mar 16, 2009 2:27pm
Quoting marcelnyo
Hi Ghous, I've just found this option myself, really fascinating what you can found out from a simple curiousity, I owe my thanks to pirabuji too for pointing this out.

And indeed it is so pleasant here, there are so little of those noises that we can find in other public forums, most if not all people here are very helpful and sincere.

Yes I agree too, if I've traded a mini account or a standard pip value of 1-10$ per pip, I'd surely closed all of the trades at 935 friday.

Because it's micro, it's hanging there, wouldn't be my best exit......
Neither can I on my Fxopen feed,

These are feed differences, don't really dig deep into this, trade what you see for now and on the daily
I believe . . .
  • #23,876
  • Mar 16, 2009 2:49pm Mar 16, 2009 2:49pm
This is how i plan to play this pin.When/if price reaches the first level marked on the chart i will bring my stop to BE and take some off the table.The daily/weekly charts look pretty bullish so price could well stall here. i will leave some to run though targeting the second area marked on the chart.
comments most welcome
thanx, jon
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PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #23,877
  • Mar 16, 2009 2:54pm Mar 16, 2009 2:54pm
ok im telling you all im taking credit for this myself. ive had an open request for dark to contact me since january. tell em dark.

it took a while but here he be.

now i gotta figure out how to get him involved in this thread again.



big grin on my face when i saw your post dark.

jim

Quoting Darkstar
What up kids? Nice to see lots of the ol' FF family still around.

Sorry to jack your thread...
  • #23,878
  • Mar 16, 2009 3:02pm Mar 16, 2009 3:02pm
Quoting ghous
so did you take a good enough look?
Unfortunately I had some personal business come up and never got around to it. Have to wait for the next one. Looks like it is going well, though.
  • #23,879
  • Mar 16, 2009 3:06pm Mar 16, 2009 3:06pm
Quoting ghous
Neither can I on my Fxopen feed,

These are feed differences, don't really dig deep into this, trade what you see for now and on the daily
My, you're using the same broker as me? it really is a small world, I've heard that you're from the middle east? well I'm from indonesia here
  • #23,880
  • Mar 16, 2009 3:14pm Mar 16, 2009 3:14pm
one quick question for you more experienced guys out there ...
how many pips below/above the bar do you normally place your entry orders??
sorry if this has been covered many times before. i usually place them 5 -10 pips below on the 4h bars and 10-20 on higher TFs.(anything lower 2 pips) i will also wait for price to break any round numbers if they are sitting too close.How does this stand against the general concensus??
thanx
PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
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