EURUSD

Big enough for someone who don't trade for a living

in my 1m chart the next support is 1.3052 i will try there to do a long. or even lower until release of Empire State Manufacturing Index

Euro Thoughts Mar -16-20 2009

Certainly these times we are not short of bad news. The one worth mentioning last week is the stream of very bad industrial production numbers across Europe that forced us to revise downward our already-gloomy GDP forecast for this year. We now see GDP contracting by 3.5% this year and returning in (marginally) positive territory only in 2010. The main casualty of the euro area crisis will likely be Germany, where industrial production has collapsed since last October in synchronicity with the sudden and abrupt slowdown in global trade.


These are bad times especially for forecasters, whose credibility has been put under severe criticism because of the frequency of revisions during the last few months. In its March Bulletin (http://www.ecb.int/pub/pdf/mobu/mb200903en.pdf), the ECB notes how since the Lehman bankrupcy the pace of economic revisions – relatively modest in the first half of 2008 – has dramatically increased, mainly due to an unforeseen plunge in key monthly economic indicators and the negative carry-over effects of the deteriorating outlook for the second half of 2008. A welcome defense of our job comes at the end of the box where the central bank claims that “overall, the sharp falls in the projections for euro area GDP growth in 2009 – common across various different institutional and private forecasters – highlight the difficulty in anticipating economic developments in such an uncertain situation”. Bottom line: sorry guys – you’re right – but please try to walk in our shoes…

This, we will get the ugly Jan IP number for the eurozone (March 19), and the final confirmation that the inflation fallout came to a (temporary) halt in February (March 16). However, the inflation descent will re-start in March, when the headline will drop below 1%. I restate my warning: instead of focusing on actual inflation numbers, whose downward trajectory is already sketched until the summer because of a powerful base effect on energy prices, it is worth monitoring closely the movement in the major market measures of inflation expectations, the only ones able – at this juncture – to alter the ECB’s stance. To this extent, note that after the ECB cut, as expected, the EONIA rate is now fixing at around 0.83-0.84%, in line with the recent trend, although the spread on the depo rate has widened a bit with respect to last months. BoF’s Governor Noyer’s claim that ECB rates are closer to the US and UK ones than what appears prima facie, confirms that the current strategy pleases both the hawks and the doves in the Council, and that the refi will settle at 1% and remain there, unless we see a plunge in the 5Y5Y forward inflation swap able to raise major concerns in Frankfurt.

Extracted from http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/...009-03-16.html

a corection to 1.3000 is possible in daytrade

I think it might huff & puff a little around here, I hope it does, I have to go out. I was'nt going to take it but I got 18 pips out of that 1.3039, in & out quick.

I am looking for a short from now on, i have to go out, hope it waits for me (some hope!).

Jasper, your shorts coming soon.....better hurry back.

hoping the pin bar on the 1H can hold out.

1st target around .2930 area.

what do you guys think of my analysis! critism welcome

dNews coming in 3 minutes and so my spread got changed from 2 pips to 60

...i'm still 2 and increasing

IMO

I think you just saw target 1. Expecting a retest of the high and a failure for a short. Target 2 - 2990, target 3 - 2950

Edit: No failure - no short

Hi,
I made a short 3 question survey on direction for EUR/USD for the next 30 days.I will post results soon.


http://surveypirate.com/Survey.aspx?...OrSgaxUg%3d%3d

Thanks,

Downward trend must be upon us. Upwards momentum is non-existant. Price has been ranging in the area between 1.3040/1.3060. I'm getting ready for a Short move as soon as I see comformation.

Now is a good time to short imo. TIC turned out crap and the run up could have been people buying the rumor.

If price retraces to 3060 and nothing more I will put in a small lort. If it doesn't retrace, I'll watch.

Change brokers.

As an example and in no way an advertisement - Oanda has a regular 0.9 on E/U during London and NY sessions. During major news such as this one it went up to 10 for a minute and back to regular. Of course, it seems ECNs may offer even better spreads on average today, maybe, but they require higher deposits ussualy. Oanda does have some connection issues occasionally - but if you have a real good connection I guess you won't, and it's not an mt4 platform (if that matters to you).

i make my first profit in Euro/dollar

WOW...

Quoting for accuracy...