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  • #75,861
  • Mar 16, 2009 1:30am Mar 16, 2009 1:30am
Quoting Katalyst
Can I see a chart for this please?

Personally, I think that's risky because price hasn't really broken clean past 1.2952 yet. This could yet be today's high like it was on Friday.
I'm only moving up in 3 lots and taking out 2 lots very quickly, because I'm really expecting a short. Presently, I am just using bar charts, and I am actually taking my entries from the numbers on the ticker and not the charts.
Good Trading. (keep it simple).
  • #75,862
  • Mar 16, 2009 1:32am Mar 16, 2009 1:32am
The big dogs are the best indicators, and psych levels, fibs, pivots, whatever... some times it all fades in the face of Relentless.
FUBAR...
  • #75,863
  • Mar 16, 2009 1:35am Mar 16, 2009 1:35am
Quoting derek
wave chart
be careful on level 1.2990 - may be local corection
looking for an opportunity to long after retracement later
  • #75,864
  • Mar 16, 2009 1:37am Mar 16, 2009 1:37am
Quoting akirax
A close above 2917 could possibly break this channel to the upside.

As stated earlier 2990 target and maybe go short. I think what it does around 2990 will be key...

all IMO

reached my target area 2980(close enough)...closing all longs...done for the day...happy piping guys...
  • #75,865
  • Mar 16, 2009 1:39am Mar 16, 2009 1:39am
Closed my longs at 2980 and opened one short at this price. I have a limit sell at 2990, hope it reaches it. I don't think we will get much higher than that. If pa gets above 3040 will change my play.

Another thing to notice is that the channel on h1 is not decisively broken to the upside. If we go down from the current level that would mean to me that the channel is still valid and we are to expect a down move to around 2760-ish

Overall I am pretty shure that the upmove is just a correction and the downside is bound to prevail. The optimism on the markets can not last long these days and I don't think the market has assessed the tragic fundamentals behind the dollar just yet
Riding the Dragon....
  • #75,866
  • Mar 16, 2009 1:40am Mar 16, 2009 1:40am
Quoting Jasper
My thoughts too!
"Great Minds Think Alike"
  • #75,867
  • Edited 2:14am Mar 16, 2009 1:58am | Edited 2:14am
Quoting Farstrider
... I don't think the market has assessed the tragic fundamentals behind the dollar just yet
I'm not quite sure how to interpret these ongoing comments for how many months now on the Sad State of USD, as if the only ones that really "Get it" are the traders on FF, and the Market is just blundering along blindly in the dark.

I prefer to think the Market will make a buck where and when it can w/o regard for the arguments of this or that. I just hope I find myself in agreement with them.

It's one thing to jaw back and forth about what we think about stuff and I enjoy that as much as anybody, and more than most, but the notion that "We" get it and "They" don't could be hard on the old account.

((I also hope They never read these pages, else we would we trade against then...?))

ADD: Picture Perfect bounce off M4 ( 2987) Lets hope it has the gas for the figure...
FUBAR...
  • #75,868
  • Mar 16, 2009 2:05am Mar 16, 2009 2:05am
Quoting ak4x
I'm not quite sure how to interpret these ongoing comments for how many months now on the Sad State of USD, as if the only ones that really "Get it" are the traders on FF, and the Market is just blundering along blindly in the dark.

I prefer to think the Market will make a buck where and when it can w/o regard for the arguments of this or that. I just hope I find myself in agreement with them.

It's one thing to jaw back and forth about what we think about stuff and I enjoy that as much as anybody, and more than most, but the notion that "We"...

The market behaves mostly on the reality NOW not on what many think. This will come but I will play along with the market coz that what's giving you the juice. I just think that the real drop of the $ comes that is when the big opportunity will be. Hope I don't miss it and have enough capital by that time

Right now I need a move to 2990 to add to my shorts
Riding the Dragon....
  • #75,869
  • Mar 16, 2009 2:07am Mar 16, 2009 2:07am
Quoting Jhig
"Great Minds Think Alike"
The very nature of the beast should make it attack the 1.3005 level, and what I'm expecting is....it will reverse at some point getting down to 1.2801 going back up before it eventually breaks under 1.2801 for a further south(that's what it should do). It could of course go up from 1.3005!!!
Good Trading. (keep it simple).
  • #75,870
  • Edited 2:37am Mar 16, 2009 2:14am | Edited 2:37am
Quoting Farstrider
The market behaves mostly on the reality NOW not on what many think. This will come but I will play along with the market coz that what's giving you the juice. I just think that the real drop of the $ comes that is when the big opportunity will be. Hope I don't miss it and have enough capital by that time

Right now I need a move to 2990 to add to my shorts
Just woke up in the middle of the night to close longs.
Time for short now? Probably, we'll see.

Yes, opened a small short @ 1.2978 no s/l, no t/p.
Going back to sleep now, its 2:13 AM here.

Please let me have a nice surprise when I wake up again.

Edit: Closed @ 1.2965 and now back to sleep.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #75,871
  • Mar 16, 2009 2:20am Mar 16, 2009 2:20am
Quoting Farstrider
Right now I need a move to 2990 to add to my shorts
Bear in mind that using 2731/2955 as fib anchors on a 1hr swing hi/lo from last week ((all on friday i think)) you have a 114% extension exactly at 2987, the same as M4 pivot ((mine anyway, and they usually work fairly well))

That may be more than the old girl has left tonite... I'm off to bed with target hit to the pipola.

chart here...
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...99#post2604999
FUBAR...
  • #75,872
  • Mar 16, 2009 2:31am Mar 16, 2009 2:31am
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Fay All Time Return: -98.7%
  • #75,873
  • Mar 16, 2009 2:31am Mar 16, 2009 2:31am
Where are the brilliant people who said European banks are in better shape

Article from cnbc
Through three separate types of transactions, Goldman received an aggregate $12.9 billion. Among European banks, SocGen was the biggest recipient at $11.9 billion, Deutsche got $11.8 billion and Barclays was paid $8.5 billion, Reuters reported.
Using the loan from the government AIG paid $22.4 billion in collateral to counterparties of credit default swaps written by AIG Financial Products (AIGFP). Those payments were made between September 16, 2008 and December 31, 2008, and included $4.1 billion to Societe Generale, $2.6 billion to Deutsche Bank and $2.5 billion to Goldman Sachs.
Another $43.7 billion went to pay counterparties of AIG's securities lending operations. The biggest recipients of those funds included Barclays which received a $7 billion payment, Deutsche Bank which received $6.4 billion and BNP Paribas and Goldman Sachs which received $4.9 and $4.8 billion respectively.

Deutsche bank should be long gone in my view 54:1 leverage. These companies are insolvent.

Just one comment to say when AIG was bailed out America bailed out Europe for the second time withing 100 years, 1st time was Marshall plan. lol
  • #75,874
  • Mar 16, 2009 2:45am Mar 16, 2009 2:45am
Quoting lloydblankfe
Where are the brilliant people who said European banks are in better shape

I heard, this morning, HSBC raised the 17 Billion it needed. Did it in less than a month. It will not seek to raise more money from it's investors. As far as a Euro/Us bank, HSBC has been fixing its problems, sort of behind the scenes. I think that is really good for a big bank. Now, if they could only get rid of their problem department, which is HouseHold Bank. HouseHold is the Sub-Prime arm of HSBC and what has been weighing the Big Bank down.

Now only if he can get rid of the Bank of America's and it's clones.
  • #75,875
  • Mar 16, 2009 2:51am Mar 16, 2009 2:51am
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Fay All Time Return: -98.7%
  • #75,876
  • Mar 16, 2009 2:59am Mar 16, 2009 2:59am
Quoting Jhig
I heard, this morning, HSBC raised the 17 Billion it needed. Did it in less than a month. It will not seek to raise more money from it's investors. As far as a Euro/Us bank, HSBC has been fixing its problems, sort of behind the scenes. I think that is really good for a big bank. Now, if they could only get rid of their problem department, which is HouseHold Bank. HouseHold is the Sub-Prime arm of HSBC and what has been weighing the Big Bank down.

Now only if he can get rid of the Bank of America's and it's clones....
Your selective European trading stations e.g Deutsche bank and so on are more highly leveraged.
  • #75,877
  • Mar 16, 2009 3:00am Mar 16, 2009 3:00am
Well, the upwards trend continues. I Continue to waiting on 1.3000.
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  • #75,878
  • Mar 16, 2009 3:01am Mar 16, 2009 3:01am
Quoting Jhig
I heard, this morning, HSBC raised the 17 Billion it needed. Did it in less than a month. It will not seek to raise more money from it's investors. As far as a Euro/Us bank, HSBC has been fixing its problems, sort of behind the scenes. I think that is really good for a big bank. Now, if they could only get rid of their problem department, which is HouseHold Bank. HouseHold is the Sub-Prime arm of HSBC and what has been weighing the Big Bank down.

Now only if he can get rid of the Bank of America's and it's clones....
HSBC are good, very good in fact. They will come through this mess as one of the long-term winners, in a field of reduced competition, due to the true geographical diversity of their earnings.

Jhig, I wouldn't debate with this Lloydblankfein guy, as he has a clear agenda against Europe. In fact, he appears on another forum, spouting much of the same rubbish, even bringing Hitler into his analysis on a few occasions.

He has no idea about the key measures the market uses to measure leverage and balance sheet risk. As examples, core tier one ratios and portions of assets that are classified as level three....
  • #75,879
  • Edited 3:21am Mar 16, 2009 3:02am | Edited 3:21am
Quoting lloydblankfe
Your selective European trading stations e.g Deutsche bank and so on are more highly leveraged.
quote a link to the source showing the 54:1 leverage at DB. also, what is your opinion on DB's core tier one ratio compared to, say, Wells Fargo? furthermore, does the higher proportion of level 3 assets compared to the equitiy held at many US banks not concern you?

there are many, many problems in the banking systems of both Europe and the US.
  • #75,880
  • Mar 16, 2009 3:04am Mar 16, 2009 3:04am
1.3 ! There we are!
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