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  • #75,161
  • Mar 13, 2009 4:31am Mar 13, 2009 4:31am
Quoting Jasper
... I went long at 1.2926.
Anybody reading the same?

i see movement to the downside
  • #75,162
  • Mar 13, 2009 4:31am Mar 13, 2009 4:31am
I am doing something I try not to do too often, show my crazy scotty b chart.
All of my fibs targets have been hit to the upside except for one and that target is at 1.2966. So price could come back up to hit it, but at this point my gut says probably not. There is a 'senior' fib level at 1.2915 and I think the current 4 hour bar will close below that level. This market is really wacky right now though. Just look back a couple months ago at that historic retracement this pair gave us. So for now, I think this retracement is complete. If my fibs tell me otherwise I'll let you all know.

Oh one more thing..for those of you who didn't catch it yesterday, I said that this pair needs to get down to 1.2216. This is the place we are ultimately headed. We got within 200 pips last week and then she pulls this bull, pardon the pun. Oh well. I don't mind an extra 700 pips every now and then.

My chart looks insane I know, but there is order to my madness.
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  • #75,163
  • Mar 13, 2009 4:35am Mar 13, 2009 4:35am
is that a typo going down to 1.2216.?
  • #75,164
  • Mar 13, 2009 4:35am Mar 13, 2009 4:35am
Quoting Scotty B

Oh one more thing..for those of you who didn't catch it yesterday, I said that this pair needs to get down to 1.2216. This is the place we are ultimately headed. We got within 200 pips last week and then she pulls this bull, pardon the pun. Oh well. I don't mind an extra 700 pips every now and then.
i must ask you as this is very important to me..hope you answer. i am on the same page with the bearish move to come in following weeks. still at the same time...i know there is a strong fundamental element when it comes to long term trading. so my question to y ou is...aside from the charts...what fundamentally suggests to you we have not hit bottom yet and there is more room to the downside?
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #75,165
  • Mar 13, 2009 4:36am Mar 13, 2009 4:36am
Hi guys,

Just want to introduce myself. I am a long time lurker here on FF, but been around other forums on the web. Been trading now for 2.5 yrs, and have tried a lot of things out there. Now i specifically concentrate on 1 pair - Eur/Usd.

Im more of a scalper, and very rarely have swing positions. However, that rare occurence was yest, when checking the daily and 4h charts, and fibs, and price action, price was bound to go up. i went long at 2785, and woke up to see profit target reached at 2930 .. lol

Good discussions you have here .. so keep it up. Will try to participate here and there.

Regards,
Ranger
  • #75,166
  • Mar 13, 2009 4:39am Mar 13, 2009 4:39am
2900 we should hit in the immediate short term I would think.
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  • #75,167
  • Edited 4:52am Mar 13, 2009 4:47am | Edited 4:52am
Quoting psiholog
i must ask you as this is very important to me..hope you answer. i am on the same page with the bearish move to come in following weeks. still at the same time...i know there is a strong fundamental element when it comes to long term trading. so my question to y ou is...aside from the charts...what fundamentally suggests to you we have not hit bottom yet and there is more room to the downside?
First off I want to answer the other guy..No I made no typo..This beast NEEDS to hit 1.2216 AT LEAST in order for the trend to change.

Now..I really appreciate your question. I believe that something much more powerful than news drives the markets. I look at the news as only fuel for the fire, but not the fire itself. News does not drive financial markets, but human reactions and the perception of value do. Thats it, and sure, lets call it the fundamentals. Now, fundamentals are good for giving us a feel for direction, but the technical side is well...Technical! I look at technicals as purely scientific. Fibs always predict where price can and will go. I don't know why this phenomenon is true, but it is and I like it that way. So I try to be aware of the news during the week, but I would never trade it. Been there, done that.
  • #75,168
  • Mar 13, 2009 4:52am Mar 13, 2009 4:52am
Quoting Scotty B
First off I want to answer the other guy..No I made no typo..This beast NEEDS to hit 1.2216 AT LEAST in order for the trend to change.

Now..I really appreciate your question. I believe that something much more powerful drives the markets. I look at the news as only fuel for the fire, but not the fire itself. News does not drive financial markets, but human reactions and the perception of value. Thats it, and sure, lets call it the fundamentals. Now, fundamentals are good for giving us a feel for direction, but the technical side is well...Technical!...
gotcha. so in your opinion news is just the reason for the pa when pa will happen regardless of the news (up to marker makers to interpret that silly nonsense). excellent answer...you just earned a vouch from me as i fully agree. best example of this is even the latest rate cuts by the ecb...that alone should have suggested your target of 1.2200...yet we didnt even make a new low off that news. clearly interpretation is more relevant then the news itself. thanks again for this most clear explanation..in target with my own.
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #75,169
  • Mar 13, 2009 5:02am Mar 13, 2009 5:02am
Quoting psiholog
gotcha. so in your opinion news is just the reason for the pa when pa will happen regardless of the news (up to marker makers to interpret that silly nonsense). excellent answer...you just earned a vouch from me as i fully agree. best example of this is even the latest rate cuts by the ecb...that alone should have suggested your target of 1.2200...yet we didnt even make a new low off that news. clearly interpretation is more relevant then the news itself. thanks again for this most clear explanation..in target with my own.
Very good example...That is truly one of many...The thing I like about fibs, is that they don't lie, and they are easy to interpret. If you look at our world, it is amazing the power of the interpretation. This applies to all walks off life, not just trading. One good example that fascinates me is that of the religious world. Interpenetration has divided the the human race in this respect since creation, whoops, pardon the pun again, but seriously. People live and die everyday because of this. Being able to think critically though, is probably the most important thing we can do for ourselves in this life.
  • #75,170
  • Mar 13, 2009 5:03am Mar 13, 2009 5:03am
talk about a dramatic hourly close! this last hour tested the high of the range and closed right on the low of the range with the current hourly candlestick opening within the range and not going one pip lower. if you think its safe to short now...do you really?

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Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #75,171
  • Mar 13, 2009 5:05am Mar 13, 2009 5:05am
Quoting Scotty B


My chart looks insane I know, but there is order to my madness.

Yes, You are absolutely right
Your chart looks insane.
But as long as you understand it, its fine.

New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #75,172
  • Mar 13, 2009 5:08am Mar 13, 2009 5:08am
1.2893 - short. I think we're going down into the channel. 4h candle closed inside. Maybe we're not ready yet to sail north.

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  • #75,173
  • Mar 13, 2009 5:09am Mar 13, 2009 5:09am
Quoting Scotty B
Very good example...That is truly one of many...The thing I like about fibs, is that they don't lie, and they are easy to interpret. If you look at our world, it is amazing the power of the interpretation. This applies to all walks off life, not just trading. One good example that fascinates me is that of the religious world. Interpenetration has divided the the human race in this respect since creation, whoops, pardon the pun again, but seriously. People live and die everyday because of this. Being able to think critically though, is probably the...
fibs...gave up on that many months ago. i have come to realize that no matter how many you draw (and i saw you have a gazillion)..pa can respect either one or respect none of them. i used to be quite fond of them truly until i realized....just drawing strong S/R lines where pa struggles most to break through those levels is best. now i am not criticizing your method...im sure it works for you...but to each his own right? as far as religion goes....that topic has lasted over 2000 years and there is still no answer. no point in this 22 year old throwing in his 2 cents about it
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #75,174
  • Mar 13, 2009 5:12am Mar 13, 2009 5:12am
Here, this chart shot shows that older fib I am talking about. We have resistance at an important inner level on a high time frame. This is significant. I will wait to short until the rsi can break it's trend line. With the insanity we've seen this week, anything is still possible. Lets be careful.
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  • #75,175
  • Mar 13, 2009 5:13am Mar 13, 2009 5:13am
Quoting T.E.Lawrence
1.2893 - short. I think we're going down into the channel. 4h candle closed inside. Maybe we're not ready yet to sail north.

Attachment
I agree,
I've been waiting for price to fall back into the Hourly channel. Seems to be hovering outside it's boundaries. So, I continue to wait for a valid shorting opportunity.
  • #75,176
  • Mar 13, 2009 5:17am Mar 13, 2009 5:17am
Quoting T.E.Lawrence
1.2893 - short. I think we're going down into the channel. 4h candle closed inside. Maybe we're not ready yet to sail north.

Attachment

Until we have an open, on 1H basis , below 2885, shorts are dangerous.

The best thing that can happen to you is to find out where you're wrong.
  • #75,177
  • Mar 13, 2009 5:17am Mar 13, 2009 5:17am
Quoting psiholog
...but to each his own right?
That works for me
  • #75,178
  • Mar 13, 2009 5:20am Mar 13, 2009 5:20am
I think we need some more minutes to decide
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  • #75,179
  • Mar 13, 2009 5:29am Mar 13, 2009 5:29am
a wild thought just crossed my mind. next week is the next US fed rate decision. now with financials showing a rebound into positive territory this week based on their profit blah blah...it is only logical to assume that they should be lending easier then in the past 5-6months or at least start to. On top of that ...add Obama..aggressive in his methods (whether good or bad to be determined later after we are out of this mess we call recession )...he is raising taxes to supposedly the rich. In any case...his officials in the fed right now...are they as drastic as he is? Because if they are...I wouldnt be surprised to see a rate increase next week based on banks doing better and not needing help anymore from the feds and so on. So if this does happen...next week should be quite interesting indeed..retesting the lows.

Sidenote:do not take this seriously..we are all aware rate hikes wont happen for a long time...still...wouldnt it be crazy if it did happen?...mindblowing
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #75,180
  • Mar 13, 2009 5:30am Mar 13, 2009 5:30am
Dropping under 80 now
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