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EURUSD

  • #75,141
  • Mar 13, 2009 3:40am Mar 13, 2009 3:40am
Too late to get a trade here, fell asleep in front of my screen
Going to sleep a few hours.

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New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #75,142
  • Mar 13, 2009 3:40am Mar 13, 2009 3:40am
Hey guys...If this is not the end of the retracement I think 1.2970 will be. This beast has had a really hard time giving us any bear rejection bars. We'll see if this hour can pull it off. I'd make for a good top.
  • #75,143
  • Mar 13, 2009 3:43am Mar 13, 2009 3:43am
On my broker, this retracement was exactly 500 clean pips. Also, we just reach a strong historical place of S/R.
  • #75,144
  • Mar 13, 2009 3:44am Mar 13, 2009 3:44am
I'm short from 1.2940.

Taking a ride down here. Already closed half the position for profit.

Not sure on what price action is going to do, although I'm fairly confident it will have to hit daily pivot sometime today.
  • #75,145
  • Mar 13, 2009 3:46am Mar 13, 2009 3:46am
Check that.

Closed out my two standard lots for +20 pips. Not about to take a chance, not knowing if price will hit the upper ceiling or move towards daily pivot.

Looking at action on the 1M timeframe, the next upmove will probably determine on whether I re-enter another short and look for 1.2850.
  • #75,146
  • Mar 13, 2009 3:47am Mar 13, 2009 3:47am
Sold 1.2926 time for the beast to come down
  • #75,147
  • Mar 13, 2009 3:50am Mar 13, 2009 3:50am
Take a look at the two rectangles I've drawn on the chart.

Those with more experience, here's a question.

It looks very similar, and if that's the case, we might be looking for a big move down.
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  • #75,148
  • Mar 13, 2009 3:53am Mar 13, 2009 3:53am
EUR-USD has made a "W" formation on the HOURLY. Now we have a Bull Flag that has broken to the upside. In my opinion we should continue higher. 1st Target is DAILY resistance at 1.2990 area. (See Chart).
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  • #75,149
  • Mar 13, 2009 3:57am Mar 13, 2009 3:57am
Candlestick,

Looks like we both have two very different views. Some room to think about for me though, seeing that I opened a small short position again at 1.2940.

Tight stop loss in case things turn out like you said.
  • #75,150
  • Mar 13, 2009 3:58am Mar 13, 2009 3:58am
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  • #75,151
  • Mar 13, 2009 3:59am Mar 13, 2009 3:59am
Quoting candlesticks
EUR-USD has made a "W" formation on the HOURLY. Now we have a Bull Flag that has broken to the upside. In my opinion we should continue higher. 1st Target is DAILY resistance at 1.2990 area. (See Chart).
honestly i dont see the W. especially not on the hourly. this is due to the fact we have seen such a strong uptrend and no retracement to lower levels...only a tap of the previous high. i consider this more of a consolidation at the high as depicted by your flag but definetely not a W...just my 2cents..
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #75,152
  • Mar 13, 2009 4:12am Mar 13, 2009 4:12am
... I went long at 1.2926.
Anybody reading the same?
Good Trading. (keep it simple).
  • #75,153
  • Mar 13, 2009 4:15am Mar 13, 2009 4:15am
Personally, I wouldn't have done that but I may be wrong.

It's due a move down at least, before it continues on it's uptrend.

I can see it retesting 1.2880, or even to the lower trendline channel, before it tries retesting today's high again.

Then again, I can't even see this current 1H bar ending with a green. I've closed all my short positions for a profit though. Waiting for a better entry.

If I can't get one, then I will be looking for a long when price has retraced.
  • #75,154
  • Mar 13, 2009 4:17am Mar 13, 2009 4:17am
update on my previous analysis. triangle/pennant falsely broke to the downside. since then...we have broken the high yet pa has retreated off that level. conclusion. we are consolidating in a range between 1.2935 and 1.2890 with strong support at 1.2865 and strong resistance anywhere close to 1.3000 (the mega psychological number). until a decisive break of this range....it is still anyones guess

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Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #75,155
  • Mar 13, 2009 4:17am Mar 13, 2009 4:17am
One more thing, I personally will be looking for a long near the 1.2820 price range. And load it up with small positions if it goes further lower than that.




Quoting Jasper
... I went long at 1.2926.
Anybody reading the same?
  • #75,156
  • Edited 4:39am Mar 13, 2009 4:19am | Edited 4:39am
Quoting psiholog
honestly i dont see the W. especially not on the hourly. this is due to the fact we have seen such a strong uptrend and no retracement to lower levels...only a tap of the previous high. i consider this more of a consolidation at the high as depicted by your flag but definetely not a W...just my 2cents..

See attached chart.
Attached Image
  • #75,157
  • Mar 13, 2009 4:20am Mar 13, 2009 4:20am
I agree with Psiholog.

Once 1.2865 is broken cleanly, I might be willing to take a quick short scalp to the daily pivot (1.2850/1.2855).
  • #75,158
  • Mar 13, 2009 4:21am Mar 13, 2009 4:21am
Double bottom on the daily, w/ lots of smaller double bottoms and a good-sized reverse shampoo on the hourly. That combined w/ trendline from previous highs.

I think it's safe to assume we'll go at least "a little" higher from here.
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  • #75,159
  • Mar 13, 2009 4:22am Mar 13, 2009 4:22am
Quoting Katalyst
Personally, I wouldn't have done that but I may be wrong.

It's due a move down at least, before it continues on it's uptrend.

I can see it retesting 1.2880, or even to the lower trendline channel, before it tries retesting today's high again.

Then again, I can't even see this current 1H bar ending with a green. I've closed all my short positions for a profit though. Waiting for a better entry.

If I can't get one, then I will be looking for a long when price has retraced.
Thank you.
I've got a S/Loss at 1.2886, but might manually close if it looks like going much below 1.2916.
Good Trading. (keep it simple).
  • #75,160
  • Mar 13, 2009 4:26am Mar 13, 2009 4:26am

For those who follow indicators ....

Today is not taken into account

The best thing that can happen to you is to find out where you're wrong.
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