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EURUSD

  • #74,601
  • Mar 12, 2009 8:44am Mar 12, 2009 8:44am
30m
4H
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  • #74,602
  • Mar 12, 2009 8:45am Mar 12, 2009 8:45am
Quoting Driver55

No. .. when E / J and U / J goes up, EURUSD may drop if USDCHF goes up too, otherwise it is mathematical that eurusd cant go down.







These are basic rules

i see what you are saying, Driver, in that you are observing the strong historical inverse correlation between eurusd and usdchf.

but from a mathematical perspective, using an extreme theoretical example, we could see e/j go up by 1%, u/j appreciate by 10%, which would see eurusd drop heavily.

in theory, usdchf is a separate asset and does not "have" to obey the historical relationship with eurusd. so usdchf could also drop due to some very positive news specific to the Swiss economy.

anyway, all of the above is semantics... i agree with the essence of what you say.... and, for the record, i think your posts and analysis are very good. i have been on this thread for a few weeks now and have been impressed, for what it's worth.

good luck
  • #74,603
  • Mar 12, 2009 8:45am Mar 12, 2009 8:45am
WOW, that was some violent swings we just experienced. Glad I didn't play it! I was about to, though I took my 20pips profit off the table from that last uptrend. I figured the market was retracing afterwards but when I saw the market move up again ... I just couldn't take the trade.

And sure enough, afterwards ... a cluster f*ck. Luck must be on my side today.
  • #74,604
  • Mar 12, 2009 8:46am Mar 12, 2009 8:46am
Quoting FXCapitalist
Utter Market Dislocation

Worrisome...but not as bad yet as Dec 15, 16 and 17 last year.

Go look at a Daily chart of USD /CHF


.

Jacko
  • #74,605
  • Mar 12, 2009 8:46am Mar 12, 2009 8:46am
when will the good old days come back? when the eur/usd slow creeps up .. and long is the way to go
  • #74,606
  • Mar 12, 2009 8:47am Mar 12, 2009 8:47am
Quoting Driver55

We should be at least 1.24 and if E/J had not made the asshole

ha. Short EU. JPY is still the strongest currency as of late.
"Diversification is an excuse for a lack of talent" ~FXC
  • #74,607
  • Mar 12, 2009 8:48am Mar 12, 2009 8:48am
whoever bought about 50,000+ shares of BAC @ 4.90-94 i love you haha now we're gonna punch $5

I think im gonna add more calls to my Vertical
"Diversification is an excuse for a lack of talent" ~FXC
  • #74,608
  • Mar 12, 2009 8:48am Mar 12, 2009 8:48am
Partial profit here.

SL 1.2833 DO NOT FORGET!!

If 1.2740 goes , MAMA MIA!!
  • #74,609
  • Mar 12, 2009 8:48am Mar 12, 2009 8:48am
Quoting gammase1
from a mathematical perspective, EURUSD can go down even if E/J and U/J both go up, so long as the percentage move in the latter is greater than the former.

however, from a statistical perspective, I am not well informed of detailed historical data recording daily moves of these currencies versus the JPY. it is not something i have studied.
That make since to me. however, there no info on percentage move on both pair, is there any? thank you
"Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication" leonardo da vinci
  • #74,610
  • Mar 12, 2009 8:49am Mar 12, 2009 8:49am
huge chf sell off is affecting eurusd..

choppy market.. im out till cooler conditions sets in.
  • #74,611
  • Mar 12, 2009 8:49am Mar 12, 2009 8:49am
Quoting trading801
when will the good old days come back? when the eur/usd slow creeps up .. and long is the way to go
Possibly never, EU will probably be extinct in 10 years or less.
"Diversification is an excuse for a lack of talent" ~FXC
  • #74,612
  • Mar 12, 2009 8:50am Mar 12, 2009 8:50am
Geithner is speaking today, right? Who thinks that the USD will crash as this man is talking?
  • #74,613
  • Mar 12, 2009 8:50am Mar 12, 2009 8:50am
Quoting BoredToLoose
Partial profit here.

SL 1.2833 DO NOT FORGET!!

If 1.2740 goes , MAMA MIA!!
I am so gunning for that I got like 10 contracts waiting there. hah help me get filled.
"Diversification is an excuse for a lack of talent" ~FXC
  • #74,614
  • Mar 12, 2009 8:51am Mar 12, 2009 8:51am
Quoting trading801
when will the good old days come back? when the eur/usd slow creeps up .. and long is the way to go
Oh 801,
I think those days are long gone. With the way the market is today, we all my be considered "scalpers" as opposed to traders/investors.

I miss those days too! Slow, long up/down moves. The kind of moves where a trader could open a position and manage that one position for hours, if not days.

Good Times ....
  • #74,615
  • Mar 12, 2009 8:51am Mar 12, 2009 8:51am
Quoting Doniboy
Geithner is speaking today, right? Who thinks that the USD will crash as this man is talking?
he better not say stupid ish.
"Diversification is an excuse for a lack of talent" ~FXC
  • #74,616
  • Mar 12, 2009 8:52am Mar 12, 2009 8:52am
Quoting Jhig
Oh 801,
I think those days are long gone. With the way the market is today, we all my be considered "scalpers" as opposed to traders/investors.

I miss those days too! Slow, long up/down moves. The kind of moves where a trader could open a position and manage that one position for hours, if not days.

Good Times ....
Investing is dead, for the moment, us traders killed it , we invest day by day. I just load up on momentum until i get margin call and get liquidated at a profit LOL!
"Diversification is an excuse for a lack of talent" ~FXC
  • #74,617
  • Mar 12, 2009 8:54am Mar 12, 2009 8:54am
if not cross 1.2875
1st target 1.2725
2nd target 1.2675
  • #74,618
  • Mar 12, 2009 8:55am Mar 12, 2009 8:55am
Quoting Doniboy
Geithner is speaking today, right? Who thinks that the USD will crash as this man is talking?
I don't know. All I do know is, I'm staying out until all this blows over. Hourly chart shows price may be heading back to 1.2700.
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  • #74,619
  • Mar 12, 2009 8:56am Mar 12, 2009 8:56am
Quoting vulture
That make since to me. however, there no info on percentage move on both pair, is there any? thank you
Use the below link to the ECB's website. It details their official daily foreign exchange fixes. You can download into excel very easily and format to how you want. Use this to measure daily % movements, for example.

Also, you can use the "=CORREL" function in excel to do some analysis on short, medium and long-term correlations (i do this and also download data from commodities and equities). All rates are measured against the EUR, but you can easily create another column and apply cross calculations to list USDJPY and Cable, for instance...

http://www.ecb.int/stats/eurofxref/e...7de1fb643712f2
  • #74,620
  • Mar 12, 2009 8:56am Mar 12, 2009 8:56am
OWN or Get OWNED
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"Diversification is an excuse for a lack of talent" ~FXC
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