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Psych Levels, Pivots, and Trendlines - Resurrected

  • #2,141
  • Mar 12, 2009 3:20am Mar 12, 2009 3:20am
Quoting Islander
My first trade was a short in the Euro as it broke under 2800 before FO.

My TP was todays DP at 2772 and I'm again short after the small pull back.

IF it can break and hold under its DP level, this will make the target the S1 level at 2678, according to the rules of the Dove Alliance.......TWT

CAble is still above its DP level of 3805 and is so far stronger than €
I've taken partial profit at 744 after the fall stalled - stop now just above the DP....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #2,142
  • Mar 12, 2009 3:34am Mar 12, 2009 3:34am
Some nice shorts available in cable too......after the doji in Frankies Hour and again at the retrace to the 850 level and later on the retrace to the mauve DP level at 805.....I'm short cable too....

My next TP is the 750 level.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #2,143
  • Mar 12, 2009 3:48am Mar 12, 2009 3:48am
Just look at this chart.....more wicks than in a candle makers....I hope a few got short in the Asian session......

Ah.....next TP hit....now if it pulls back towards the 5m 34 ema that'll be around the 800 level, then I'll sell again.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #2,144
  • Mar 12, 2009 4:06am Mar 12, 2009 4:06am
I closed out my Euro short after a higher low on the 5m chart.

So far cable has been held by the confluence of the 725 level and today's S1 at 722.....I'm hoping for a pull back to let me back in.....meanwhile, time for a break....BBL
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #2,145
  • Mar 12, 2009 4:38am Mar 12, 2009 4:38am
Good morning lads,

Had a nice start to the morning so far. Had two opportunities on E/J... The first was a bearish engulfing candle off of the 123.00 and the 13ema. That one sailed down nicely and I managed to grab 45 pips off of it.

Then the second opportunity came when price retraced from the low of the last move back up to 122.50 and formed a shooting star at the xx50 and the 13 ema again. That one shot down and I closed out for a quick 25.

Dan
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  • #2,146
  • Edited 5:22am Mar 12, 2009 5:21am | Edited 5:22am
Quoting DanUK
Good morning lads,

Had a nice start to the morning so far. Had two opportunities on E/J... The first was a bearish engulfing candle off of the 123.00 and the 13ema. That one sailed down nicely and I managed to grab 45 pips off of it.

Then the second opportunity came when price retraced from the low of the last move back up to 122.50 and formed a shooting star at the xx50 and the 13 ema again. That one shot down and I closed out for a quick 25.

Dan
What a morning so far for me, and I don't mean trading. I literally haven't had a minute to sit down and watch the screen for any length of time....just glancing at it in passing, so to speak. Finally, I'm able to see what's been happening, and I see that Islander has been his usual busy self this morning. Nice trades, mate, and your analysis is very useful for the rest of us. Dan, two nice trades there, starting the day off right! On your first one, can I ask you where you actually entered the trade? Looking at your chart, I would have entered just under the xx80 psych-line, but you may have done it differently? Just curious, mate.
Cheers
  • #2,147
  • Mar 12, 2009 5:31am Mar 12, 2009 5:31am
Quoting Islander
I closed out my Euro short after a higher low on the 5m chart.

So far cable has been held by the confluence of the 725 level and today's S1 at 722.....I'm hoping for a pull back to let me back in.....meanwhile, time for a break....BBL

How nice - and to the 800 level too - short again.......
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #2,148
  • Mar 12, 2009 6:19am Mar 12, 2009 6:19am
Quoting DanUK
I managed to grab 45 pips off of it.
Nice trades, Dan! I don't know how long you've been trading (especially the "psych" method), but you had a good grasp of it (to say the least).

As a side note (sorry if I am driving the same message home - that's how I am ) - don't get carried away with pips as such. Surely, as long as the trade is profitable, nothing to worry about. But if you view your trades from the point of view "pips risked vs pips gained", then you may start approaching trades (and exit) differently. Just a thought.
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #2,149
  • Mar 12, 2009 6:23am Mar 12, 2009 6:23am
Quoting eyevoltage
On your first one, can I ask you where you actually entered the trade? Looking at your chart, I would have entered just under the xx80 psych-line, but you may have done it differently?
Good point, EV!

I know that most traders prefer safer conservative entries at the "break" of setups/level. Yet other traders prefer entries based on 38% or 50% Fibo retracement (RT) of the signal candle. That gives your better RR, but puts you into a trade "prematurely" - price does not always move where expected. Also, sometimes prices does not RT at all, so waiting for a RT would mean a missed trade.
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #2,150
  • Mar 12, 2009 6:41am Mar 12, 2009 6:41am
Quoting Islander
How nice - and to the 800 level too - short again.......

Cable dropped back to the 750 level with a 5m hammer and then bounced, so I got stopped out by mt trailing stop and was a bit slow getting in long.....BUT this is probably just pre news chop...
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #2,151
  • Mar 12, 2009 7:10am Mar 12, 2009 7:10am
I didn't take that trade (I am not trading for the time being for technical reasons), but that's my fav setup:

Hammer (pinbar) off xx50 level and shooting outside BB. It followed a strong bar, but the "bear" of that bar was not convincing (too long upper wick). Prior swing's low was not reached either. I interpreted small Doji that followed as the sign that the price is not willing to move further down.

But the main attractiveness of that setup was RR: Hammer was small (14pips), so I only needed a 28-pip move to give me RR2. Daily Pivot, Weekly S2 level and 1.3800 were about 50pips away, so the chances of my RR2 target being reached were good. In fact, I'd target RR3 with that set, exiting 4-5pips below Daily Pivot.

MAs (8, 13, and 21) crossed up nicely and the price went firmly above them. So, I'd move my SL just below the MAs crossing point and see what happens next.

Again, that's semi-theoretical semi-hindsight (I saw the setup brewing off the corner of my eye and made the above analysis before the price moved). Reality could have been different, but I do tend to stick to my pre-trade plan in practice (moving SL when price reaches critical or predetermined levels, if I am around the terminal).
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One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #2,152
  • Edited 5:00pm Mar 12, 2009 7:44am | Edited 5:00pm
I really must take more notice of this pair. I've been so wrapped up with the activities of cable and eu that I sometimes forget that there's others to look at.
This one caught my notice with the spinning-top right on the M1 line, signalling a possible retracement. Retrace it did, culminating in another spinning-top (1) right on the xx50 psych-line and the lower shadow touching the 13ema. This spinning top was followed by a bullish engulfing candle (2) giving me more confidence to enter the trade. The second candle along certainly moved "with authority", as they say, so I decided to jump ship as price breached the xx00 psych-line. Nice and simple and straightforward.
Attached Image
  • #2,153
  • Mar 12, 2009 8:06am Mar 12, 2009 8:06am
Quoting eyevoltage
On your first one, can I ask you where you actually entered the trade? Looking at your chart, I would have entered just under the xx80 psych-line, but you may have done it differently? Just curious, mate.
Cheers
Hi EV,

Entering under the 80 line would have been the safer entry although I must admit that didn't occur to me at the time! I entered just below the low of the engulfing candle. Initial risk was 22 pips - price dropped to about three times that so I moved my stop to +45 to give a 1:2 RR if it retraced - which it did!
  • #2,154
  • Mar 12, 2009 8:12am Mar 12, 2009 8:12am
Quoting Forex007
Nice trades, Dan! I don't know how long you've been trading (especially the "psych" method), but you had a good grasp of it (to say the least).

As a side note (sorry if I am driving the same message home - that's how I am ) - don't get carried away with pips as such. Surely, as long as the trade is profitable, nothing to worry about. But if you view your trades from the point of view "pips risked vs pips gained", then you may start approaching trades (and exit) differently. Just a thought.
Hi 007,

Thanks for your kind words. I am pretty new to trading psych levels in this way but with the help of everyone here I am starting to get a good handle on it!

I do actually tend to think of my exits in the way you mentioned, i.e. pips risked vs pips gained. Typically when I enter a trade I place a fib extension on the candle that triggered the trade. I have altered the extensions so that I can clearly see when a trade has hit 1:1, 1:2, 1:3 etc and depending on the sort of move/trade that I am in I will either take profit at one of these levels or move my stop to them as price moves in my favour.

Regards,


Dan
  • #2,155
  • Mar 12, 2009 8:30am Mar 12, 2009 8:30am
Quoting DanUK
Hi EV,

Entering under the 80 line would have been the safer entry although I must admit that didn't occur to me at the time! I entered just below the low of the engulfing candle. Initial risk was 22 pips - price dropped to about three times that so I moved my stop to +45 to give a 1:2 RR if it retraced - which it did!
Many thanks indeed, Dan. For myself, if an S/R line is looming too close for comfort, I always wait for a break through it before entering. One never knows.....price might just energetically bounce off the line, leaving one with possibly a losing trade. Still, it turned out right for you, mate. Nice one!
  • #2,156
  • Mar 12, 2009 8:37am Mar 12, 2009 8:37am
Quoting eyevoltage
Nice and simple and straightforward.
Indeed. I have a great collection of EV's charts (and explanation of logic behind it) in my "PA analysis" folder
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #2,157
  • Mar 12, 2009 8:41am Mar 12, 2009 8:41am
Quoting DanUK
Typically when I enter a trade I place a fib extension on the candle that triggered the trade. I have altered the extensions so that I can clearly see when a trade has hit 1:1, 1:2, 1:3 etc and depending on the sort of move/trade that I am in I will either take profit at one of these levels or move my stop to them as price moves in my favour.
Great idea! Will try it now.
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #2,158
  • Edited 1:41pm Mar 12, 2009 12:46pm | Edited 1:41pm
Hi all,

E/J is handing out some good setups today (I've seen about 8 really good setups today). EV posted one earlier that I think I would call the "perfect" setup! This one comes close... maybe a B+ trade as opposed to an A!

Got a hammer piercing the 125.00 with the close above, giving me a reason to go long which is inline with the trend of the moment and the EMAs. Took the break to the high of the candle at 125.16 which was just above the 13 ema and went long. Got out as price retraced down to my stop achieving a 1:2 RR trade at 125.72.

Edit: PS Last chart of the day for me; off out now! Good trading everyone! Dan.
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  • #2,159
  • Mar 12, 2009 2:31pm Mar 12, 2009 2:31pm
Quoting DanUK
Got out as price retraced down to my stop achieving a 1:2 RR trade at 125.72.
With a good a/c size, just 1-2 RR2 trades per day is all one needs to make a comfortable living ("financial freedom").
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #2,160
  • Mar 12, 2009 9:24pm Mar 12, 2009 9:24pm
Just want to say hi and thanks to everyone here. I am reading through the whole thread. The charts posted here are some of the most clear and educational charts I have ever seen.
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