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Psych Levels, Pivots, and Trendlines - Resurrected

  • #2,101
  • Mar 10, 2009 4:12pm Mar 10, 2009 4:12pm
I thought we were supposed to post about Psych Levels, Pivots and Trendlines ?? I got yelled out when I was posting Psych-Lines. Now, I see candle patterns, moving averages, etc... Same question that was put to me... WHAT DO THOSE HAVE TO DO WITH PSYCH LEVELS, PIVOTS AND TRENDLINES? What am I not seeing?

http://i39.tinypic.com/icvm83.gif
TRO
  • #2,102
  • Mar 10, 2009 4:34pm Mar 10, 2009 4:34pm
Quoting eyevoltage
Because a Bullish Piercing Candle occurs at the bottom of a trend/range, if you get my meaning. The position of it in the set-up, plus the Bearish Engulfing Candle effectively negates that candle as anything except a spinning-top, IMHO.
By the way, what's a CT? Probably something obvious. It's my age, you know!
Yep, makes perfect sense.

CT - countertrend. I am not a teenager either I bet, though, most teenagers would envy your analysis (if they could understand what that means )
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #2,103
  • Mar 10, 2009 4:35pm Mar 10, 2009 4:35pm
Quoting Islander
Apart from the candlestick pattern - which I'm not good at identifying - there were other signals to help with both of these rejections of levels.
Islander, thanks for adding another "dimension" to the chart.
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #2,104
  • Mar 10, 2009 4:37pm Mar 10, 2009 4:37pm
Quoting eyevoltage
I hadn't thought about it, to be honest, but now you mention it, yes, they could be looked upon as ever-decreasing Haramis. For myself, three on the trot like that would probably strengthen the belief that it was going to precipitate a move downwards. Does that make sense to you? Because I read somewhere that situations like this do tend to add confidence to a potential trade.
Well, sometimes multiple Haramis (which signal an indecision) could break either way. But in that case, based on other information, and considering the descending triangle, down was the way to go indeed
Attached Image
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #2,105
  • Edited 3:17am Mar 11, 2009 2:23am | Edited 3:17am
Quoting Money4Nothing
I thought we were supposed to post about Psych Levels, Pivots and Trendlines ?? I got yelled out when I was posting Psych-Lines. Now, I see candle patterns, moving averages, etc... Same question that was put to me... WHAT DO THOSE HAVE TO DO WITH PSYCH LEVELS, PIVOTS AND TRENDLINES? What am I not seeing?

http://i39.tinypic.com/icvm83.gif
LOL M4N - take it easy.........we are putting the emphasis on those things, but as the thread's starter hasnt continued posting, those of us that post here regularly have added - like you have a zig zag indy - our own nuances. That you are able to trade on such a naked chart is a credit to you.
Cheers
Islander
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #2,106
  • Mar 11, 2009 2:33am Mar 11, 2009 2:33am
25 mins before FO cable had a sharp drop down to the confluence of todays S1 at 3657 and the 650 level.

This was followed by an ultra wide range bullish candle on high volume.

I missed both of these, but two candle's later there was a doji / spinning top that made it down to the 62% retrace of the bounce.....so I bought that as it broke back up thru the 700 level and put my TP just under the earlier high of 3736 for a nice 30 pips to start my day.....http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #2,107
  • Mar 11, 2009 3:13am Mar 11, 2009 3:13am
Quoting Islander
25 mins before FO cable had a sharp drop down to the confluence of todays S1 at 3657 and the 650 level.

This was followed by an ultra wide range bullish candle on high volume.

I missed both of these, but two candle's later there was a doji / spinning top that made it down to the 62% retrace of the bounce.....so I bought that as it broke back up thru the 700 level and put my TP just under the earlier high of 3736 for a nice 30 pips to start my day.....http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif
Nice trade, mate. I like the way you manage to spot those short term fib opportunities. Something I'm going to have to work on, I reckon!
  • #2,108
  • Mar 11, 2009 3:29am Mar 11, 2009 3:29am
I'm also spending a lot of time looking into the use of volume, especially on the 15 min and higher TFs - as I start to get busier away from my 'puter I'm looking for longer term trades.

Here, we didnt need help from volume to show us the buy off the 700 level, or the sell off the 800 level, but the high volume in the spike to the 650 area is showing that plenty of traders were buying down there, so I'll be watching for what happen on any retrace now that Europe's open......
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #2,109
  • Mar 11, 2009 3:31am Mar 11, 2009 3:31am
Quoting Forex007
Well, sometimes multiple Haramis (which signal an indecision) could break either way. But in that case, based on other information, and considering the descending triangle, down was the way to go indeed
hello, i want to thank you guys for sharing here, this thread is like learning from a book for me.
one question @eyevoltage , do you realy need the emas in youre trading, do they play a significant rule or is it just more like nice to have. Sometimes i think the pa and the candle pattern would be enough?
  • #2,110
  • Mar 11, 2009 3:46am Mar 11, 2009 3:46am
My first buy was at the first green arrow. The second buy off the 700 level was a gift and the failure to hit the mauve DP line made a lower high and set up the sell at the red arrow....

The lime green high vol bar after the low showed high vol on this TF and the red bar at LO gave a warning of building selling

PS It looks as if the dashed green mid pivot line, combined with the fib decision zone and 34 ema is holding this pull back......the 725 level is also there....
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #2,111
  • Mar 11, 2009 3:57am Mar 11, 2009 3:57am
Quoting MJurban
hello, i want to thank you guys for sharing here, this thread is like learning from a book for me.
one question @eyevoltage , do you realy need the emas in youre trading, do they play a significant rule or is it just more like nice to have. Sometimes i think the pa and the candle pattern would be enough?
Hi - whilst I'm certain that EV will make his own reply, as I'm the person who mainly brought the aqua 5m 34 ema to this thread I'll give you my comments.

In FF there are several systems built around this or similar close EMAs. I use it mainly as a filter AND for pull back entries where price approches it before moving away to continue its move.

Also, as I watch several pairs it allows me to easily compare their relative actions.

My two green MAs are off the hourly chart and just remind me of the longer term trend - I'm probably going to replace them with the coloured signal bars in the top rh corner.

However, I do agree that you can trade perfectly well without the MAs....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #2,112
  • Mar 11, 2009 4:09am Mar 11, 2009 4:09am
Quoting MJurban
hello, i want to thank you guys for sharing here, this thread is like learning from a book for me.
one question @eyevoltage , do you realy need the emas in youre trading, do they play a significant rule or is it just more like nice to have. Sometimes i think the pa and the candle pattern would be enough?
When Acumen started this thread, it was all about trading off pivots, sweetspots (psych-lines) and trend lines. In other words, it all revolved around support and resistance. Nothing's changed in that respect. We still, in the main, look to trade around support and resistance levels. As Islander pointed out earlier, we all seem to have customised in our own way. I find that using a 34ema (which I copied from Islander) keeps me on the right side of the current trend, whereas the 13ema gives me an added support or resistance area to work with. Does this answer your question adequately? If not, don't hesitate to let me know.
Cheers
  • #2,113
  • Mar 11, 2009 4:21am Mar 11, 2009 4:21am
Good morning guys, hope everyone is well!

Just a little "cheeky" trade on U/J - got in at 98.43 and out again at 98.33 as price started to move back up. Risk was 9 pips so just managed to get 1:1 on it!

I have a(nother) question coming up which I will post in a minute so I don't get things confused!
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  • #2,114
  • Mar 11, 2009 4:29am Mar 11, 2009 4:29am
What would you do?

Ok, so I was looking at this possible setup this morning. A shooting star at the 1.3750 on the 15min G/U chart looked like a possible bearish move (not perfect as it didn't close below the xx50). I was planning to take a break below the candle (indicated below) but the next 15min candle didn't break below. So I decided to pull the plug and then within minutes it blasted down, just where I expected it to! Don't get me wrong I know this is the nature of trading but I would be interested to know if anyone would have kept hold of the trade, even though the first candle after the shooting star didn't break? I.e. would you take the next candle along or cancel the trade?

Hope that makes some kind of sense!
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  • #2,115
  • Mar 11, 2009 4:43am Mar 11, 2009 4:43am
Quoting eyevoltage
When Acumen started this thread, it was all about trading off pivots, sweetspots (psych-lines) and trend lines. In other words, it all revolved around support and resistance. Nothing's changed in that respect. We still, in the main, look to trade around support and resistance levels. As Islander pointed out earlier, we all seem to have customised in our own way. I find that using a 34ema (which I copied from Islander) keeps me on the right side of the current trend, whereas the 13ema gives me an added support or resistance area to work with. Does...
yes, thanks for teh detailed answer
  • #2,116
  • Mar 11, 2009 4:54am Mar 11, 2009 4:54am
Quoting Islander
Hi - whilst I'm certain that EV will make his own reply, as I'm the person who mainly brought the aqua 5m 34 ema to this thread I'll give you my comments.

In FF there are several systems built around this or similar close EMAs. I use it mainly as a filter AND for pull back entries where price approches it before moving away to continue its move.

Also, as I watch several pairs it allows me to easily compare their relative actions.

My two green MAs are off the hourly chart and just remind me of the longer term trend - I'm probably going to replace...
thx, i try to follow the system II , (saw u there also), but i have i hard time without any indicator. it looks perfect at the hintside but when i trade i find myself very often on the wrong side
thanks for sharing
  • #2,117
  • Mar 11, 2009 4:55am Mar 11, 2009 4:55am
Quoting DanUK
What would you do?

Ok, so I was looking at this possible setup this morning. A shooting star at the 1.3750 on the 15min G/U chart looked like a possible bearish move (not perfect as it didn't close below the xx50). I was planning to take a break below the candle (indicated below) but the next 15min candle didn't break below. So I decided to pull the plug and then within minutes it blasted down, just where I expected it to! Don't get me wrong I know this is the nature of trading but I would be interested to know if anyone would have kept hold of...
Hi Dan - I was actually trading off my 5 min chart as posted above and had been long into LO, closed after the failure to make the DP level, thus putting in a lower high. 4 candles later the next lower high signalled a sell after the 2 ultra narrow range candles had gone nowhere.

IF I'd just been trading off the 15m, my stop would have been above the DP level, so I'd have still been in the trade....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #2,118
  • Mar 11, 2009 4:55am Mar 11, 2009 4:55am
Quoting DanUK
What would you do?

Ok, so I was looking at this possible setup this morning. A shooting star at the 1.3750 on the 15min G/U chart looked like a possible bearish move (not perfect as it didn't close below the xx50). I was planning to take a break below the candle (indicated below) but the next 15min candle didn't break below. So I decided to pull the plug and then within minutes it blasted down, just where I expected it to! Don't get me wrong I know this is the nature of trading but I would be interested to know if anyone would have kept hold...
I wouldn't have taken the trade, mate, purely and simply because it's on the wrong side of the MAs! However, that's because of the method I use, which means it's nowhere near the kind of set-up I look for. If I didn't use the MAs, then I would have waited for the first candle to open beneath the xx50 line, which would have been the second candle along from your arrowed one. As far as I can see, mate, that would have netted around 35 to 40 pips for you!!
  • #2,119
  • Mar 11, 2009 5:27am Mar 11, 2009 5:27am
My first real opportunity this morning stemming from the sort of set-up I look for all the time......
A doji formed right on the 13ema, preceded and followed by 2 strong candles. It's just a matter then of waiting for the right entry. In this case, everything was looking a little cramped under the xx80 psych-line, so I waited and entered on the next candle to open above the xx80 line. First target was 1.2700, with the option of seeing if it made it to the xx20 line.
Attached Image
  • #2,120
  • Mar 11, 2009 6:02am Mar 11, 2009 6:02am
Quoting Islander
LOL M4N - take it easy.........we are putting the emphasis on those things, but as the thread's starter hasnt continued posting, those of us that post here regularly have added - like you have a zig zag indy - our own nuances. That you are able to trade on such a naked chart is a credit to you.
As an example, when price outshoots Bollinger Bands, you know that the reversal is coming sooner rather than later. That helps me make a better judgement when the price then reaches psyche level or some PA is formed.

It's like a car to me: you cannot say that steering wheel or a gas (accelerator) pedal is all you need or that those tools are the most important for driving. You need much more than that to drive safely
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
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