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Psych Levels, Pivots, and Trendlines - Resurrected

  • #2,081
  • Mar 10, 2009 6:15am Mar 10, 2009 6:15am
Hi guys,

Not had many good chances to trade this morning. It's all been a bit of a mess, not many really clear signals to take!

I did however find one on USD/CHF first thing this morning - a hammer at the 1.1500. Took the break at 1.1510 and managed to bag 20 on it. In hindsight I could have held on for a bigger ride but I'm happy with what I got!
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  • #2,082
  • Mar 10, 2009 6:21am Mar 10, 2009 6:21am
After saying that there weren't many chances to trade... perhaps I was just looking in the wrong places as I missed this beautiful opportunity to go long EUR/CHF at 1.4650!
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  • #2,083
  • Mar 10, 2009 6:45am Mar 10, 2009 6:45am
Quoting DanUK
After saying that there weren't many chances to trade... perhaps I was just looking in the wrong places as I missed this beautiful opportunity to go long EUR/CHF at 1.4650!
Don't worry, me old son. Trades are like buses....there'll be another one along soon!

Nice one on the Swissy, by the way!
  • #2,084
  • Mar 10, 2009 8:54am Mar 10, 2009 8:54am
Quoting eyevoltage
Don't worry, me old son. Trades are like buses....there'll be another one along soon!
EV you were right as usual!... went long at the break of the hammer over 1.4500, closed out for 33 pips.
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  • #2,085
  • Mar 10, 2009 8:57am Mar 10, 2009 8:57am
I've been waiting all day for a move like this one. A lovely bullish piercing candle forming right on the 13ema, just under the xx50 psych-line. Another few minutes of indecision indicated by the little doji/spinningtop, and then a positive move up. Entry just above the high of the spinning-top and a SL placed just below the piercing candle at 1.2537. Initial target was anywhere in the confluence zone formed by the M4 line and the xx80 psych-line, but once it reached there, I felt there was enough strength to reach the xx00 psych-line, and so it proved. Worth waiting for!
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  • #2,086
  • Mar 10, 2009 8:59am Mar 10, 2009 8:59am
Quoting DanUK
EV you were right as usual!... went long at the break of the hammer over 1.4500, closed out for 33 pips.
Nice one, mate. The morning's been crap, but things are livening up now, hopefully.
  • #2,087
  • Mar 10, 2009 9:27am Mar 10, 2009 9:27am
Hi Guys - I gave up on cable for today and traded euro instead and have pirated a few pips off it.

The way cable's action its setting up for another nice move - tomorrow? - and given its lack of upside retracement and thinking of another push down....TWT
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #2,088
  • Mar 10, 2009 9:41am Mar 10, 2009 9:41am
Quoting Islander
Hi Guys - I gave up on cable for today and traded euro instead and have pirated a few pips off it.

The way cable's action its setting up for another nice move - tomorrow? - and given its lack of upside retracement and thinking of another push down....TWT
Well, on the Daily chart, it's definitely in a downtrend, and I've seen opinions expressed that it's fully expected to go further down to anywhere between 1.3400 and 1.3500, which is where it was towards the end of January.
Anyway, as you say, TWT.......
  • #2,089
  • Mar 10, 2009 10:06am Mar 10, 2009 10:06am
Quoting eyevoltage
Nice one, mate. The morning's been crap, but things are livening up now, hopefully.
Well done spotting the EJ trade! I've just recently come out of an EJ trade down from the high of your move up! Good for 30 pips or so! The afternoon has definitely gone better than this morning!
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  • #2,090
  • Mar 10, 2009 10:07am Mar 10, 2009 10:07am
Just trading the x.xx00 with the candle color at the line...

http://i39.tinypic.com/28jlmcg.gif
TRO
  • #2,091
  • Mar 10, 2009 10:32am Mar 10, 2009 10:32am
Quoting DanUK
EV you were right as usual!... went long at the break of the hammer over 1.4500, closed out for 33 pips.
Purely as a hindsight: your trade was CT, so exiting when you felt comfortable was a good thing to do.

At the same time, the price had to come to at least MA8 (or another simialar fast MA you have on your chart) - marked by yellow rectangular (I guess that's where you exited). Also, 1.500 was directly above (there was a SR level there too - marked yellow) - so one could have been adventerous and target 4950-4980 for RR2+

Good quick CT trade, Dan!
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One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #2,092
  • Mar 10, 2009 10:36am Mar 10, 2009 10:36am
Quoting eyevoltage
I've been waiting all day for a move like this one.
The wait as definitely worth it. Another nice one, EV! I should improve my pre-trade analysis, as I often miss Piercing Candles.
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #2,093
  • Mar 10, 2009 12:29pm Mar 10, 2009 12:29pm
Another great reversal signal, this time on 5m cable. A harami candle formed, straddling the 13ema and the xx50 psych-line, and actually touching the 34ema. A couple of spinning-tops followed (the second is probably a doji), and I entered just below the lows of these two candles. This trade, like the first one, has been kind to me by sailing through my initial target. Also, like the last one, it's further proof of how having patience and waiting for just the right set-up can pay dividends.
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  • #2,094
  • Mar 10, 2009 2:26pm Mar 10, 2009 2:26pm
5m Cable produced this trading example that practically leaps out of the chart at you! A Harami, a Spinning-Top and a Bearish Engulfing Candle formed just slightly under the 1.3800 psych-line, followed by a very strong bearish candle that would have supplied the entry point to the trade (just under the low of the two candles indicated by the grey line). Then there's a little spinning-top pull-back that forms in the 4 pip zone between the M2 line and the xx50 psych-line. How exact is that? Three more strong candles march all the way down to the vicinity of the xx80 psych-line, and the two yellow crosses give two alternative exit points. I ask you, what more could you need? A perfect set-up, and I wasn't around, sod it!!
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  • #2,095
  • Mar 10, 2009 2:47pm Mar 10, 2009 2:47pm
Quoting eyevoltage
A Harami, a Spinning-Top and a Bearish Engulfing Candle
EV, how do you decide with setups like those that that Spinning-Top was not a Bullish Piercing candle (I marked it with yellow rectangle)? I know that Bullish Piercing would have been CT, but we never know when a retracement becomes trend reversal.
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One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #2,096
  • Mar 10, 2009 2:51pm Mar 10, 2009 2:51pm
Quoting eyevoltage
A harami candle formed, straddling the 13ema and the xx50 psych-line, and actually touching the 34ema. A couple of spinning-tops followed (the second is probably a doji)
EV, another question similar to my prev. one - were those Spinning Tops also Harami? If so (the last one of the ones I marked was I4B - i.e. the smallest in range out of four preceeding ones, btw; but that's not a part of this thread ) - do you attach any special meaning to such tripple Haramis? Many thanks!

P.S. You had great RRs today!
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One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #2,097
  • Mar 10, 2009 3:22pm Mar 10, 2009 3:22pm
Quoting Forex007
EV, how do you decide with setups like those that that Spinning-Top was not a Bullish Piercing candle (I marked it with yellow rectangle)? I know that Bullish Piercing would have been CT, but we never know when a retracement becomes trend reversal.
Because a Bullish Piercing Candle occurs at the bottom of a trend/range, if you get my meaning. The position of it in the set-up, plus the Bearish Engulfing Candle effectively negates that candle as anything except a spinning-top, IMHO.
By the way, what's a CT? Probably something obvious. It's my age, you know!
  • #2,098
  • Mar 10, 2009 3:28pm Mar 10, 2009 3:28pm
Apart from the candlestick pattern - which I'm not good at identifying - there were other signals to help with both of these rejections of levels.

In the first one, the 3850 level was also a confluence of the downward sloping 34 ema and the hourly 20 ema - green. That conbined with the low volumes gave a good hint of the lack of buyers.

In the second shaded area, the 3800 level, the push up to the level was on average volume, which rapidly dissapeared with the second green candle having very low volume as the buyers vanished, leaving the sellers to regain control......
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #2,099
  • Mar 10, 2009 3:28pm Mar 10, 2009 3:28pm
Quoting Forex007
EV, another question similar to my prev. one - were those Spinning Tops also Harami? If so (the last one of the ones I marked was I4B - i.e. the smallest in range out of four preceeding ones, btw; but that's not a part of this thread ) - do you attach any special meaning to such tripple Haramis? Many thanks!

P.S. You had great RRs today!
I hadn't thought about it, to be honest, but now you mention it, yes, they could be looked upon as ever-decreasing Haramis. For myself, three on the trot like that would probably strengthen the belief that it was going to precipitate a move downwards. Does that make sense to you? Because I read somewhere that situations like this do tend to add confidence to a potential trade.
  • #2,100
  • Mar 10, 2009 3:32pm Mar 10, 2009 3:32pm
Quoting Islander
Apart from the candlestick pattern - which I'm not good at identifying - there were other signals to help with both of these rejections of levels.

In the first one, the 3850 level was also a confluence of the downward sloping 34 ema and the hourly 20 ema - green. That conbined with the low volumes gave a good hint of the lack of buyers.

In the second shaded area, the 3800 level, the push up to the level was on average volume, which rapidly dissapeared with the second green candle having very low volume as the buyers vanished, leaving the...
Many thanks indeed for that, Islander. It's really good to be able to see things from a fresh angle, and I like to think that our separate charts from you, me and others on this thread benefit us all in the long run.
Cheers, mate.
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