EURUSD

Thanks tien.

My weekly pivots is 1.2641. Are you a student of Peter Bain or Vic Noble? How is price in relation to pivots?

I was told Fib spells more accuracy then pivots. But I don't use Fibs not sure how to.

my target is 1.2583

No, I'm completely serious about the no SL thing. Check my other posts on the subject.

hello all...i have decided to continue posting my observations for now, my passion for sharing what i see far surpasses any comments made by certain FF members. For those people I have taken the most mature action possible...the ignore list..you know who you are. On that note...I dont care what anyone believes or doesnt about me, here are my observations for the start of this week.

Technical analysis
as many have observed, friday we began the formation of a strong double bottom or W on the hourly/4hour charts. This W could very well have neckline at 1.2655 but i have decided its more accurate at 1.2625 as that was the strong resistance level for weeks. As we can all see, that level is not holding right now but that doesnt mean the W is cancelled out. The last value for this W to still be true is 1.2565, the super strong support level during the same time 1.2625 was the strong resistance. In other words, we can go as low as 1.2565 and see a strong bounce there after which the W would go towards completion with a target area of 1.2865 or so (the last known strong resistance level which matches the distance from the tip of the heads to neckline). If 1.2565 does not hold though, new lows are in sight and there isnt much to stop it. To conclude, we are back in the range we all know so well by now..1.2565 to 1.2625 and a break one of those values will determine further direction.

Sidenote: the dow is at the lows already...100points down with the other indexes over 1% down as well. Today is one of those days where the stock market heavily influences eur/usd direction so where the us stock market opens and the direction it takes is quite crucial.

Sidenote #2:the NFP bull rally (pre data release and pa direction afterwards) has already been nulled...this happens most times NFP data comes out so the true direction of the market should be revealed sometime this week (possibly a bit later).

Good pippin all

thanks psiholog

[EU ASSET MARKET UPDATE] As the bad economic and company news piles up (Sentix Eurozone sentiment deteriorates further - see below, while banks, insurers and autos all battered), the pressure on equities merely intensifies and the losses across the main bourses deepen. So far, the Dax, FTSE and Cac-40 have been as much as 69-78 pts down on the day, with several indices and futures in dange of sliding to new contract lows amidst all the doom and gloom. Note, US stock futures are also suffering with the Dow down over 100 ticks and just off a new 6528 session low, which suggests that Wall St will fall back when trade resumes (an hour earlier than normal at 13.30GMT, as clocks have already changed in the US). Back to Europe, Italian internet company Tiscali has been suspended at limit down after its failure to find a buyer for its UK business units. Bonds still bid, but off best levels.


ECB's [STARK] thinks growth is likely to be negative in all qtrs of 2009 as the turn-around to positive prints will be delayed until the H1 2010. Speaking at the EU's FinMin mtg, the council member says, the world economy is in its deepest downturn since WWII and that the ECB has taken the economic slump into account for its monetary policy decisions. On the outlook, he sees risks to the ECB's growth f/c remaining high while infl will fall further in coming months and may turn negative around mid-year. However, so far the fall in prices is not deflationary and the lower prices may be useful to boost consumption. Turning to policy, Stark stresses that the problem is the lack of confidence, not liquidity. Very low rates, and he considers 1.5% to be very low, are not desirable and may aggravate problems. While the ECB's measures are already unconventional, he emphasizes the importance of an exit strategy.


The [SENTIX] monthly index of investor morale in the Eurozone, fell again in March to -42.7 from February's reading of -36.1 and much worse than market forecasts of -38.0. Current conditions also fell to -59.75 from a prior number of 52.25, while expectations fell to -23.50 from a previous -18.25. The sharply deteriorating economic situation in the CEE was also highlighted by the steep fall in the Eastern Europe index to -52.0 from -39.8. The dark clouds just continue to gather.

Long @ 1.262


psiholog - good to see you back

Hi psiholog, Greeting from newbie. Your posting has benefited me a lot. Million Thanks

i read your posts, i must say, your doing the same exact same thing i did at first. big pips from your very first live trade (for all the wrong reasons, emotions play a big part as well). that is a recipe for disaster as you dont have the feel for the markets yet, you dont know what stop loss you are comfortable with and i dont think you know yet what strategy works best for you. You see, i too made quite a bit of money at first breaking all MM rules (as i did not have any) until reality kicked in and suffered loss after loss. Begginer's luck followed by the reality of what a dog eat dog this market is. I highly recommend you dont do 5 dollar pips yet...not even 1dollar pips..maybe 50cents max so you know what live trading is until you get in the rhytm of things and then gradually work your pip size up as you prove to be successful. If there is one thing I benefit you with, i hope it is this post as i speak from experience and dont want to see you repeat that "nightmare" i suffered at first

I'll go ..
long gbpusd at 1,3900
short eurgbp at 0,9082
short usdjpy at 99,48

Hi psiholog,

Yes I will review my trading journal after one week of trading and Hope can get some guidance from you guys.

Thank you and Happy trading.

Cheers to FF

I'm going out for an hour or so but will look back at posts, can you tell me what made you go long at 1.2620.(I just can't see a long at all) but that does'nt mean I'm not right, I am more interested in what I may have missed if you are correct.

As posted before my green line on the downside is still untouched meaning the downward momentum is still existing.
I am sidelined since last trade and won't enter any new ones either as I call it a day.
good trading everyone.

Hey psi good to see u back

glad to see your back!! and Thanks for the breakdown of the 1hr chart.

if it crosses 1.2600 I'm going short

going back to my previous post which analyzed this weeks potential pa...heres a 15minute chart of todays pa as i see it. note the downwards channel (blue trendlines) and how pa has been contained within it. 1.2565 at this time (lower wall) may prove as a good place to buy if reached. Personally...im looking for a break to the upside and possibly a retest of that upper wall (which coincides with 1.2635at this time) where if strong support is shown i would buy. this is me sticking to my strategy, it is in no way a recommendation for any of you.

hello all im back 2600 is a key level if it breaks to the downside will trigger a buy at 1.2544 with targets of 1.2595 and 1.2646 if it holds it will trigger a sell at 1.2796 with a target of 1.2694 1.2614

Show me your channel and I show you mine:

http://i427.photobucket.com/albums/p...ce/chart-4.jpg

What do you think?

h4 candle is going to close below the h4ganhillo 5 min later and qqe is going to make down crosse over this is the important signal for selling