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  • #1,141
  • Mar 6, 2009 1:22am Mar 6, 2009 1:22am
[quote=Globalprofits;2584169]
Quoting fammira

Sorry i miss understood and now i have gone back and read that post i think you have hit the nail on the head with your comments on China and Gold and the other thing was the Reserve Bank not dropping rates this month would of helped as well.
No problem mate

I live and work in China
Honestly I think that chinese anticipate recovery talk is just political propaganda.

It's though clear that Australia, for some reasons that I ignore, is poised in an at least slightly better situation than Europe, Usa, Japan and even China. (recent data and interest rates do proove that, even if I believe there might be space for one or two small cuts this year down to 3% while ECB, FED, BOJ and BOE might have finished cutting).

Aud seems too beaten to go down again, and the situation still too uncertain to make it go up.
Today US seems to evetually start weakening, I am looking for a shot in the 0,65 - 0,66 area to take profit of my long then see what happens.

Today and next week I see a huge bounce in equities, that should help indeed
  • #1,142
  • Edited 3:13pm Mar 6, 2009 2:53pm | Edited 3:13pm
Quoting fammira
Today and next week I see a huge bounce in equities, that should help indeed
A huge bounce today, huh? As tempted as you might be, I think you should take a break from making predictions as you seem to be off the mark quite a bit.
  • #1,143
  • Mar 6, 2009 4:18pm Mar 6, 2009 4:18pm
Quoting Subdude
A huge bounce today, huh? As tempted as you might be, I think you should take a break from making predictions as you seem to be off the mark quite a bit.
I am not here to predict anything, I just expressed my opinion whose reason is the oversold and the pessimism around

I still believe equities will bounce up next week
  • #1,144
  • Edited 4:58pm Mar 6, 2009 4:47pm | Edited 4:58pm
Quoting fammira
I am not here to predict anything, I just expressed my opinion whose reason is the oversold and the pessimism around

I still believe equities will bounce up next week
A prediction is an opinion about the future. So yes, you have been making predictions.

I, for one, no longer have any strong opinions about the stock market. Oversold? Maybe, then again - maybe not. Most stocks at this point are just trading vehicles, just like FX. What is the "fair" value for Citigroup - $0, $1, $3, $5? Nobody knows, nor do they care - they just trade the momentum. This is why the market is so unpredictable and volatile now. Value investing is dead, at least for now.

Fundamentally, equity markets are mostly forward-looking, i.e. a company's perceived value is in many cases based on its ability to grow revenues and earnings in the future, not necessarily its past performance or intrinsic value of its assets, no matter how stellar they are. So many times companies announced decent results lately, but gave a soft future growth outlook at the same time, resulting in a double digit loss of market cap following that. And you can be certain for most businesses, growth prospects are pretty much nil this year, and possibly next. Hell, some will not even be around a year from now.

So, there may be a short term spike (DCB of sorts) here and there, but mostly the sentiment will remain very negative for the foreseeable future. Only when index the charts have been looking relatively flat for a while can you expect a gradual recovery to begin; a strong V-shaped bounce is highly unlikely, because economies cannot be rebooted instantly. And I do not see this flat line in sight yet - if anything, the pace of decline has only been accelerating. Just look at the 3 month chart for S&P 500 (it is a better indicator than Dow) and you will see exactly what I mean.
  • #1,145
  • Mar 7, 2009 1:36am Mar 7, 2009 1:36am
Quoting Subdude
A prediction is an opinion about the future. So yes, you have been making predictions.

I, for one, no longer have any strong opinions about the stock market. Oversold? Maybe, then again - maybe not. Most stocks at this point are just trading vehicles, just like FX. What is the "fair" value for Citigroup - $0, $1, $3, $5? Nobody knows, nor do they care - they just trade the momentum. This is why the market is so unpredictable and volatile now. Value investing is dead, at least for now.

Fundamentally, equity markets are mostly forward-looking,...
If I am making predictions, I may be wrong.
My intention is not to show I am good at forecasting whatsoever, but simply to share an opinion in a forum.

Concerning equities, I think that the Citigroup case is not very representative for the whole market.
I am aware of the fact that markets are not cheap now, I am just saying that they went down a lot and that the market is not considering a lot of good companies that still make earnings even on a slow economy condition, and people sold unconditionally since the end of January.

Moreover, this is not a suggestion (or a prediction) for where market are headed to, but just and simply a consideration of the fact that IF equities are bouncing, AUD could benefit from it.

I also agree that there will not be a V recovery, what I am calling is a pure as simple bear market bounce that could be in shape of being quite strong as heavy as this last down leg been

Good pips to you!
  • #1,146
  • Mar 7, 2009 1:27pm Mar 7, 2009 1:27pm
Nice post! I agree, that value investing is much harder these days due to the fact that most stocks are purchased via mutual funds. So during sell-offs they all get dumped and therefore correlate much more strongly to the SP500 than single stocks used to.

If you do however want to bet on a stock, then make sure that they have enough cash (or other liquid asset) that they can burn through while the company goes through tough times (due to micro and/or macro reasons). The longer the company exists the more chance there is for buyers to bid its stock up. Don't think there is necessarily a 1:1 correlation between earnings and stock prices.

However, these days, I see little advantage of single stocks over SPY.


Quoting Subdude
A prediction is an opinion about the future. So yes, you have been making predictions.

I, for one, no longer have any strong opinions about the stock market. Oversold? Maybe, then again - maybe not. Most stocks at this point are just trading vehicles, just like FX. What is the "fair" value for Citigroup - $0, $1, $3, $5? Nobody knows, nor do they care - they just trade the momentum. This is why the market is so unpredictable and volatile now. Value investing is dead, at least for now.

Fundamentally, equity markets are mostly forward-looking,...
  • #1,147
  • Mar 7, 2009 7:18pm Mar 7, 2009 7:18pm
I like AUDUSD in a rebound scenerio. It's actually decent at these levels for two reasons. .6350 has been supported a few times, supposedly by RBA. And another reason I like it, it seems stable compared to EURO. There was a time EURO was the stable one, but in a change of roles AUD once volatile is now not a big a mover as in days old when compared to EURO. So if you are looking for a longer term position AUSSIE seems built for a slugfest up to mid .70 at least.
  • #1,148
  • Mar 7, 2009 8:41pm Mar 7, 2009 8:41pm
Quoting TIckerShuffl
I like AUDUSD in a rebound scenerio. It's actually decent at these levels for two reasons. .6350 has been supported a few times, supposedly by RBA. And another reason I like it, it seems stable compared to EURO. There was a time EURO was the stable one, but in a change of roles AUD once volatile is now not a big a mover as in days old when compared to EURO. So if you are looking for a longer term position AUSSIE seems built for a slugfest up to mid .70 at least.
Wow, mid $0.70 is a pretty bullish view, IMO. While it does appear the rate of decline on AUD has slowed, I think it may be range-bound between 0.63 and 0.68 in the short term. Medium term, it is highly dependent on what the Chinese outlook is like, since China is a major customer of Australia. It would be very interesting to observe an actual recession in the China/India region, which is still not even close to being there.

There is a possibility of a test of the 0.60-0.61 level in the next week or two, IF equity markets throw in a towel. If that happens, it's anybody's guess but I suppose one could make the case for a W-shaped pattern on the daily.

I do not have a position in the pair at the moment, but short on USD/CAD, cable and EU.
  • #1,149
  • Edited 9:22pm Mar 8, 2009 9:05pm | Edited 9:22pm
I don't know about India, but working and living in China I can tell you it has been slowing down a lot, especially on the export side and anything connected with the US and European markets, whose orders are decreasing since last October.

China is still surviving relatively well due to the "new colonization" campaign made in Africa in the last years, that allows Beijing to keep his trade balance considerably up by buying and storing cheap raw material and initiate growing commercial relationships with countries like Sudan, Congo, Nigeria, Kenya and a few others.
Moreover, internal market is still keeping up due to the fact that more and more people can afford to spend more, but I doubt this is going to last for long since companies started from the first time ever here to cut human resources.
I already noticed a decrease in spending, travel and leisuring compared to the end of 2008, where I was still surpised to see how (in a traditionally saving country) people kept spending when US and Europe were smelling recession times already.
That's what one might call the power of propaganda!

Despite encouraging data, stimulus plans and government announcements so far, China GDP will tank in 2009, as we all see too many factories closing, a sharp decrease in trafic on the roads connecting main ports with production areas, and a lot of workers never back from the countryside after the chinese new year.
Most of the factories I regularly visit, are now working and producing with 1/3 of their workforce.

Deng Xiao Ping used to say that when China grows at a yearly rate below 5%, that can be considered risky for social stability.
Clearly he was right as he was indirectly stating that our parameters for growth needs to be re-adjusted when we talk about China
I hope you don't mind if I predict some social unstability for the rest of 2009
  • #1,150
  • Mar 9, 2009 5:03am Mar 9, 2009 5:03am
noticed buying on dips again

I've tried a long at 0,6359
  • #1,151
  • Mar 9, 2009 9:49pm Mar 9, 2009 9:49pm
After a quite contained dip in the last US session, AUD bounced back this morning, still substained again by some real money supporting it in the 0,63 area.

Equities still seem undecided whether going down and look for new lows or take an eventual oversold bounce.
We already underlined in this thread how AUD has faced this recent down leg of the markets much better than other main currencies and looks therefore poised to overperform if some risk appetite should come back.

AUDUSD sees buying on dips in the 0,63 support zone (with possible weakness extensions to 0,6285 4 March lows, watch also for February lows at 0,6248) and is now facing the 0,6370/ 80 resistance are.
A test of 0,64 / 0,6420 is not excluded for today, unless equities tone remains weak.

I would keep my long position until the pair stays above 0,63 with short term target in the 0,65 area.
Would stop or reverse under 0,6250 indeed.

Happy pips to all
  • #1,152
  • Mar 10, 2009 8:36am Mar 10, 2009 8:36am
I have exited at .6350 from my short. I think this market is trying to stay above .6300. I will go long at .6520 Good night for now.
  • #1,153
  • Mar 10, 2009 10:17am Mar 10, 2009 10:17am
today's upmove does not change the big picture yet, AUDUSD still in the upper end of the 0,6280 - 0,6560 trading range

personally I am still long from 0,6359 and will try to take profit in the 0,6540 - 50 area in case we'll visit it in the coming sessions

The clearance of 0,6560 would be an important long signal
  • #1,154
  • Mar 10, 2009 1:14pm Mar 10, 2009 1:14pm
I wouldn't read too much into this rally - this is a typical bear market bounce, short but sharp. 0.65 still seems like a long shot.
  • #1,155
  • Mar 10, 2009 5:07pm Mar 10, 2009 5:07pm
Quoting Subdude
I wouldn't read too much into this rally - this is a typical bear market bounce, short but sharp. 0.65 still seems like a long shot.
Yeh, crazy Americans! dow up almost 6% because of a memo from of all people a Bank Executive!
"You Can Make Money Or Excuses But You Can't Make Both!"
  • #1,156
  • Mar 10, 2009 5:29pm Mar 10, 2009 5:29pm
Quoting Globalprofits
Yeh, crazy Americans! dow up almost 6% because of a memo from of all people a Bank Executive!
Pandit is certainly a crook. Hmm, let's see - Citigroup's market cap is $8B, they got $65B in 3 separate bailout disbursements, and now they're suddenly doing well. Wow, I think I might be doing pretty well too if I got 65 yards. Here's the link for your amusement: http://hosted.ap.org/specials/intera...ailout_tracker

That, and apparently Ben said that recession could be over by the year's end if all goes well... uh, okay.
  • #1,157
  • Mar 11, 2009 4:43am Mar 11, 2009 4:43am
AUDUSD was down this morning on worse than expected China trade balance and export.

China is suffering and will suffer for a few more months before starting showing some recovery, as its economy is clearly tied to exports.
Global good news and recovery are necessary to for China to recover as well.

Now AUD seems to be willing to move up again, with equities poised to consolidate yesterday's gains before trying to go up more.

Pair stable in the old trading range, with first support in the 0.637 - 0.64 area before the harder 0.6285 - 0.63, and resistances at 0,6489 (yesterday's high) and 0,6527 (4 March highs) unlikely to be reached today unless Wall Street is strong again.

Tomorrow important events to watch are RBNZ Rate Statement (that could anticipate RBA next moves) and the AZ Unemployment Rate and Employment Change data.
I doubt there will be positive news so I would be a seller on any strenght before the data to minimize risks.
  • #1,158
  • Mar 11, 2009 7:35pm Mar 11, 2009 7:35pm
Interesting, there have been an increase in job employment, however there was an increase in unemployment rates.
"Don't work for your money, but let money work for you."
  • #1,159
  • Mar 11, 2009 8:40pm Mar 11, 2009 8:40pm
Quoting chady250
Interesting, there have been an increase in job employment, however there was an increase in unemployment rates.
Yeah, I guess this means new jobs are still being created netting slightly positive, but not fast enough to keep up with overall demand for work. Negative population growth would sure help in that department a little.
  • #1,160
  • Mar 11, 2009 9:39pm Mar 11, 2009 9:39pm
Quoting Subdude
Yeah, I guess this means new jobs are still being created netting slightly positive, but not fast enough to keep up with overall demand for work. Negative population growth would sure help in that department a little.
lol, yea a decrease in population would definitly help the unemployment growth. Guess the world really is "Over Populated"
"Don't work for your money, but let money work for you."
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