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Igrok Method. Q's & A's. Comments, thoughts and ideas

  • #161
  • Mar 30, 2007 11:02am Mar 30, 2007 11:02am
Greetings : )
Derek and Henry thanks for the comments and warm welcome. Looking forward to devouring the book so i can speak-Igrok ; )

Henry, happy to see you also, always enjoyed your insights in the "room" and the "other" topic. hehe.

Cheers, and have a great weekend.
Thom
  • #162
  • Mar 30, 2007 12:49pm Mar 30, 2007 12:49pm
Quoting ilanr
PS I wrote the above about an hour ago. Definitely, the fx market has an exquisite sense for drama... Igrok, was there any way to expect the timing, the direction, and the magnitude of this move (150 p. in 80 minutes till now)?
Yes, it was. I was even going to post the warning in the beginning of the day but my internet connection was cut off for the first half of the day and then I just forgot to do it. Here are a few clues:
1. Today there was a rare occasion when indicators could really be used with great result. The matter is that MACD on the EUR/USD made a bearish cross-over from the very beginning of the day and was staying in this mode for the most part of it. In cases when the market is obviously bullish but there is a danger of sending a clear bearish signal, the market usually makes sudden and sizeable moves in the opposite direction before closing. It does such a thing just in order to avoid a cross-over on the MACD lines. BTW this is not the only time recently. It happens sometimes even on bigger scale. Last month USD/CHF barely escaped from similar situation when MACD was crossed to the upside for almost the entire month and only the last day drop allowed it to stay in bearish mode up untill now.
2. There was a very narrow weekly range on Cable this week going into Friday and also a divergence on MACD pointing below 1.9555 level. After completing the task and eliminating this problem the market still had to expand its weekly range to make it more acceptable and closer to the average. So, the market just extended its weekly range both ways in one day also posting a flat surface on the very top of the current highs.
  • #163
  • Mar 30, 2007 1:06pm Mar 30, 2007 1:06pm
Quoting Igrok
In cases when the market is obviously bullish but there is a danger of sending a clear bearish signal, the market usually makes sudden and sizeable moves in the opposite direction before closing. It does such a thing just in order to avoid a cross-over on the MACD lines.
Thanks for the detailed explanations. I wish I'd be able to understand them one day... Why should the market care, what signals are sent? What sort of "motivation" is behind that?

On what timeframe do you use MACD for intraday trading? Hourly? With regular settings (12,26,9)?
sans peur et sans reproche
  • #164
  • Mar 30, 2007 1:15pm Mar 30, 2007 1:15pm
Quoting ilanr
Thanks for the detailed explanations. I wish I'd be able to understand them one day... Why should the market care, what signals are sent? What sort of "motivation" is behind that?
On what timeframe do you use MACD for intraday trading? Hourly? With regular settings (12,26,9)?
I don't know why. I just know that it happens several times a year every year. Also keep in mind that question "why?" is the least important for practical trading. The most important questions are "where?" and "when?".
I don't really use MACD for trading. Only as an additional clue for divergences and for something like what has happened today. Yes, regular settings.
  • #165
  • Mar 30, 2007 1:27pm Mar 30, 2007 1:27pm
Quoting Igrok
I don't know why. I just know that it happens several times a year every year. Also keep in mind that question "why?" is the least important for practical trading. The most important questions are "where?" and "when?".
I don't really use MACD for trading. Only as an additional clue for divergences and for something like what has happened today. Yes, regular settings.
Hi Igrok,
Thanks for your good analysis on today's market above. For me, this sudden upthrusts on cable and EUR/USD are supported by Elliott Waves.
However, as you said above that the MACD failed to cross to bearish side, so do you expect cable and euro to move up further next week?
Tra-X
  • #166
  • Mar 30, 2007 1:37pm Mar 30, 2007 1:37pm
Quoting Traex
Hi Igrok,
Thanks for your good analysis on today's market above. For me, this sudden upthrusts on cable and EUR/USD are supported by Elliott Waves.
However, as you said above that the MACD failed to cross to bearish side, so do you expect cable and euro to move up further next week?
Certainly this is a bullish sign for the cable and EUR/USD. Flat surface on the very top on cable is also a "kiss of death" and must be broken. At least a good probability for such move is definitely there.
  • #167
  • Mar 30, 2007 2:00pm Mar 30, 2007 2:00pm
Quoting Igrok
Certainly this is a bullish sign for the cable and EUR/USD. Flat surface on the very top on cable is also a "kiss of death" and must be broken. At least a good probability for such move is definitely there.
Alright, thanks for the answer. The term "kiss of death" here is interesting lol. The 1.9720 strong resistance is the one that's being 'kissed' now.
Tra-X
  • #168
  • Mar 30, 2007 3:30pm Mar 30, 2007 3:30pm
Quoting Igrok
Yes, it was. I was even going to post the warning in the beginning of the day but my internet connection was cut off for the first half of the day and then I just forgot to do it. Here are a few clues:
1. MACD on the EUR/USD made a bearish cross-over from the very beginning of the day and was staying in this mode for the most part of it.Last month USD/CHF barely escaped from similar situation when MACD was crossed to the upside for almost the entire month and only the last day drop allowed it to stay in bearish mode up untill now.
2. There was a very narrow weekly range on Cable this week going into Friday and also a divergence on MACD pointing below 1.9555 level. So, the market just extended its weekly range both ways in one day also posting a flat surface on the very top of the current highs.
Do you think the market would have done the same if that news about Chinese import didn't come out?

Do you think this is all techincal ?

I am more than happy to see cable fly to 2 and above right now. It's got to hit it and break it, I thought it was going to do it end of Feb begining of March to be honest. The sooner it goes up, the sooner it comes back.
And you know that I'm long of June put at 19200, so that explains my point of view.
The quality of your life is brought about by the quality of your thinking.
  • #169
  • Mar 30, 2007 8:22pm Mar 30, 2007 8:22pm
Quoting hornet
Do you think the market would have done the same if that news about Chinese import didn't come out?
Quoting hornet
Do you think this is all techincal?


I guess, if not China news it would've been something else. I have witnessed it happening many times before. I assume everything is technical in the market. The only thing I’m having a problem with is the exact definition of what is behind the phenomenon of TA.

You could probably laugh at me but since I got involved in this business a lot has changed in my view on many different things, not even directly related to the market. For example, I have never been a religious person. Most of my life I used to be an atheist. I'm still not religious at all but over the years of trading I have developed a feeling that there must be unknown something out there. It seems to me that the laws of TA basically are no different from the laws of physics and thus the market must be a part of nature. However, I still don’t understand why a totally artificial environment created by humans behaves like a natural thing and why this chaotic world, driven by millions of unrelated events, is so precise and full of sense.
  • #170
  • Mar 31, 2007 12:30am Mar 31, 2007 12:30am
Amazing, how my feelings are similar to yours.

Quoting Igrok
For example, I have never been a religious person. Most of my life I used to be an atheist. I'm still not religious at all but over the years of trading I have developed a feeling that there must be unknown something out there.
Every time I see that months and years apart, time after time, the price touches the same straight line, or two exactly parallel lines - I experience something like a religious feeling.

Quoting Igrok
It seems to me that the laws of TA basically are no different from the laws of physics and thus the market must be a part of nature. However, I still don’t understand why a totally artificial environment created by humans behaves like a natural thing and why this chaotic world, driven by millions of unrelated events, is so precise and full of sense.
This was what I kept telling my psychologist and sociologist friends when I started studying forex. Behavior of one person or a small group of people is studied by psychology. Behavior of a large, yet defined, collective of people is studied by sociology. Behavior of billions of people is studied by physics. And I believe that fx prices reflect the totality of all human activity on this planet, hence fx is part of the natural sciences.
sans peur et sans reproche
  • #171
  • Mar 31, 2007 5:44pm Mar 31, 2007 5:44pm
Have you ever heard of "The Law of Attraction"?
In my opinion, it all comes down to "Universal Laws".

With or without a God
The quality of your life is brought about by the quality of your thinking.
  • #172
  • Mar 31, 2007 9:19pm Mar 31, 2007 9:19pm
Quoting hornet
Have you ever heard of "The Law of Attraction"?
In my opinion, it all comes down to "Universal Laws".

With or without a God
"The Secret" audio runs nearly non stop when i'm studying at a low volume. I know it has made a positive impact in my trading and life. Good stuff for anyone. They did a great job tying the whole idea that has been written over the years (that many here have read in various books by other names and authors).

: ) Thom
  • #173
  • Apr 1, 2007 1:01pm Apr 1, 2007 1:01pm
Quoting Igrok

I guess, if not China news it would've been something else. I have witnessed it happening many times before. I assume everything is technical in the market. The only thing I’m having a problem with is the exact definition of what is behind the phenomenon of TA.

You could probably laugh at me but since I got involved in this business a lot has changed in my view on many different things, not even directly related to the market. For example, I have never been a religious person. Most of my life I used to be an atheist. I'm still not religious at all but over the years of trading I have developed a feeling that there must be unknown something out there. It seems to me that the laws of TA basically are no different from the laws of physics and thus the market must be a part of nature. However, I still don’t understand why a totally artificial environment created by humans behaves like a natural thing and why this chaotic world, driven by millions of unrelated events, is so precise and full of sense.
Everything happens in cycles....combine that with the predictability of human emotion.

Ordered your book last week after thinking about buying for a couple months. The lack of indicators discussed in this thread sold me.
  • #174
  • Edited 6:12pm Apr 1, 2007 5:28pm | Edited 6:12pm
Quoting hornet
Have you ever heard of "The Law of Attraction"?
In my opinion, it all comes down to "Universal Laws".

With or without a God
Terminology is not that important. Such definitions as “God” or “Universal Laws” might be just two synonyms describing the same phenomena from different perspectives. But logical conclusion might make some great practical sense. It seems that if TA is really based on natural laws then it might be used as a tool for forecasting future events. In other words, TA can be used in order to forecast fundamental changes. And not only financial or economical but all of them including political, sociological, biological, environmental and so on.
  • #175
  • Apr 2, 2007 3:43am Apr 2, 2007 3:43am
Mmmm... Interesting concepts.

Let's consider these ones too:

1.- According to W.D. Gann "Coming events cast their shadows before, and the
market is nearly always prepared for these events and gives some indication of
change of trend before these events take place".

2.- Geometrical formations, triangles, flags, pennants, channels, H&S (not the
shampoo), fibonacci etc. All these work well as long as they fulfill their own
prophecy, although lately those formations are prone to lots of failures/false
breakouts.

3.- Since more and more people have access to e-trading worldwide (specially day trading),
are the markets becoming less and less efficient?

4.- A few moths back Thom (accrete) and I were learning from this guy who
allegedly knew how the "big boys" work the market out. According to his words,
the bbs had pre-agreed avenues (channels) were price was moving accordingly. In
case of a trend reversal, they all get in touch beforehand and move altogether
alright leaving us behind wondering.

That's not the first time I hear such statements. According to testimonies of
traders working for banks and big institutions worldwide, they are in constant
communication and pre-agree all moves, even those fake reversals early in the
European session.

Is it true that there's a pre-formatted set up in the markets?

If that's so, the only hope for a small trader is to ride on their coat tails,
and as Igrok writes, stop predicting?

Henry
  • #176
  • Apr 2, 2007 4:28am Apr 2, 2007 4:28am
Quoting hensch
Mmmm... Interesting concepts.
Quoting hensch

Let's consider these ones too:

1.- According to W.D. Gann "Coming events cast their shadows before, and the
market is nearly always prepared for these events and gives some indication of
change of trend before these events take place".

If it was true then there would be somebody (a group of banks or funds) making all the profits and pocketing all the money. But as far as I know, banks perform poorly when they trade on their own behalf. I receive some reports from major FX participants on daily basis showing actual bank trades and even my assistants used to laugh at their inability to make sense even out of the most obvious technical situations. Few years ago I got some statistics showing that the average life expectancy of a bank trader is about 5 years. After that people either quit this job completely or become managers and don’t do the actual trading any more. So, we can safely say that uneducated idiots mostly drive the market.

Quoting hensch
2.- Geometrical formations, triangles, flags, pennants, channels, H&S (not the
shampoo), fibonacci etc. All these work well as long as they fulfill their own
prophecy, although lately those formations are prone to lots of failures/false
breakouts.

I disagree with this statement. The market draws more complicated technical pictures than most of traders might be expecting and that just not everyone can read, but everything the market does still makes a lot of technical sense for those who really understand TA.

Quoting hensch
3.- Since more and more people have access to e-trading worldwide (specially day trading), are the markets becoming less and less efficient?

Retail market participants don’t affect market prices. All retailers trade against their dealers and brokers. It’s pretty much like an “inside the house gambling” based on actual market numbers.

Quoting hensch
4.- A few moths back Thom (accrete) and I were learning from this guy who
allegedly knew how the "big boys" work the market out. According to his words,
the bbs had pre-agreed avenues (channels) were price was moving accordingly. In
case of a trend reversal, they all get in touch beforehand and move altogether
alright leaving us behind wondering.


That's not the first time I hear such statements. According to testimonies of
traders working for banks and big institutions worldwide, they are in constant
communication and pre-agree all moves, even those fake reversals early in the
European session.

Is it true that there's a pre-formatted set up in the markets?
I don’t think that they can control the market to such extent. Even central banks are usually having problems controlling it. One day a few years back we got a phone call from our dealer. He was asking for a permission to connect us with a trader from Credit Suisse who wanted to talk to us about something. It appeared later during the conversation with him that coincidentally we used to buy his stops all the time for a long time. He just got curious eventually about those who were making him so miserable.

Quoting hensch
If that's so, the only hope for a small trader is to ride on their coat tails,
Quoting hensch
and as Igrok writes, stop predicting?

Henry
“Predicting” and “technical reading” are two different things. Half of my templates are based on technical formations but it appears that the majority of traders cannot identify them correctly.
  • #177
  • Apr 2, 2007 4:41am Apr 2, 2007 4:41am
Quoting Igrok
So, we can safely say that uneducated idiots mostly drive the market.
LOL. I've done some projects for several governments (Israeli, EU, US, ex-USSR states). Having seen how things are done everywhere, my conclusions are that uneducated idiots mostly drive everything, and that everything that looks like conspiracy can be more parsimoneously explained as uneducated idiotism.
sans peur et sans reproche
  • #178
  • Apr 2, 2007 7:28am Apr 2, 2007 7:28am
While cable has already completed its average daily range the EUR/USD and USD/CHF have done nothing so far. Usually it's not a good sign for the europeans. Likely to see them lower against the buck later in the day.
  • #179
  • Apr 2, 2007 7:51am Apr 2, 2007 7:51am
Quoting Igrok
While cable has already completed its average daily range the EUR/USD and USD/CHF have done nothing so far. Usually it's not a good sign for the europeans. Likely to see them lower against the buck later in the day.
The logic is that as Cable can't go up any more, it should go down (if it goes anywhere), and as the Euro mimics the Cable, it's doomed to go south too?
sans peur et sans reproche
  • #180
  • Apr 2, 2007 7:52am Apr 2, 2007 7:52am
Quoting ilanr
The logic is that as Cable can't go up any more, it should go down (if it goes anywhere), and as the Euro mimics the Cable, it's doomed to go south too?
Yes.
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