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  • #72,601
  • Mar 7, 2009 11:23pm Mar 7, 2009 11:23pm
Quoting Spsantos
You may want to enlighten us to WHEN it began to exist, because there were to major stages...
You may want to do some searching online next time before rolling your eyes.

"On 1 January 1999, 11 EU member states acquired a single currency, the euro. This was achieved by locking the exchange rates for the legacy currencies of the participating EU member states (euro area member states) vis-à-vis the euro. For the first three years, the euro existed only as electronic money, while the legacy currencies still existed as banknotes and coins. However, the fixed parities of the 11 legacy currencies vis-à-vis the euro meant that they were no longer independent currencies, and consequently they were no longer traded in the currency markets".

So unless you are calling adding countries like Slovenia, (sorry de123) Slovakia and Cyrpus as major events. I think the above is what matters when discussing the euro rollout.

Next now look at your chart and see which direction it went first after '99. Did it go up? It did once it bottomed for the last time in '02. Went on a tear till '08 and has given back half. So I guess you could say that is ok depending on when someone went short or long. The question now is whether or not it will go further down or resume long term uptrend.

I don't know about you but I don't trade such long term periods so all it means is bragging rights, which mean nothing to me. All I care about is that the market move and trade it whichever way it goes.
  • #72,602
  • Mar 7, 2009 11:34pm Mar 7, 2009 11:34pm
Quoting SunTrader
You may want to do some searching online next time before rolling your eyes.

I don't know about you but I don't trade such long term periods so all it means is bragging rights, which mean nothing to me. All I care about is that the market move and trade it whichever way it goes.
I'm also really more interested in what the EU does in the coming week than anything else. And for what it is worth, I thing we will go down coming week. Why? See my posts a little earlier today.

Shamu
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  • #72,603
  • Mar 7, 2009 11:34pm Mar 7, 2009 11:34pm
Quoting SunTrader
You may want to do some searching online next time before rolling your eyes.

"On 1 January 1999, 11 EU member states acquired a single currency, the euro. This was achieved by locking the exchange rates for the legacy currencies of the participating EU member states (euro area member states) vis-à-vis the euro. For the first three years, the euro existed only as electronic money, while the legacy currencies still existed as banknotes and coins. However, the fixed parities of the 11 legacy currencies vis-à-vis the euro meant that they were...
When Euro was electronicly(as an accounting currency) established and according to the Mundell-Fleming Model in Jan 1st 1999, with the outrageous assumption that a central bank role was limited since increasing the money supply would result in a depreciation of a currency {thing that only one currency in the world is immune(so far)}, it dropped until it was finally introduced as paper money in 2002, since then it has *never* been below the value it opened in Jan 1st 2002.

I just wanted you to stress that out, since your understanding of world events are more prone to Oliver Stone movies than mine.

I've seen a lot of your past coments, going back to 2007, and there are really very nice gems, really worth of remembrance. Oliver Stone is owing you some.
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  • #72,604
  • Mar 7, 2009 11:41pm Mar 7, 2009 11:41pm
Quoting Spsantos

I just wanted you to stress that out, since your understanding of world events are more prone to Oliver Stone movies than mine.

I've seen a lot of your past coments, going back to 2007, and there are really very nice gems, really worth of remembrance. Oliver Stone is owing you some.
Just wondering what this personal conflict has to do with trading EU in the coming week, or even in the coming month.
Can't you just exchange email address and fight there?
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  • #72,605
  • Edited 11:57pm Mar 7, 2009 11:45pm | Edited 11:57pm
Quoting KillerWhale
Just wondering what this personal conflict has to do with trading EU in the coming week, or even in the coming month.
Can't you just exchange email address and fight there?
Don't wonder so much.

There's no personal conflict, just an exchange of views, and to that matter, I may add that that the number of currencies that made the initial start in 2002 was 12, against the 11 that were in 1999.

EDIT: And plus, maybe someone didn't know about this, may be a future usefull knowledge(i mean, if portugal or greece defaults, who cares!? i don't ), even if for you it doesn't matter. Fundamentals drive technicals.
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  • #72,606
  • Mar 8, 2009 12:03am Mar 8, 2009 12:03am
Quoting Spsantos
Don't wonder so much.

There's no personal conflict, just an exchange of views, and to that matter, I may add that that the number of currencies that made the initial start in 2002 was 12, against the 11 that were in 1999.
Well at least their money looks much prettier than the $ bills.
I lived in Europe on the introduction but early 2002 I moved to San Diego, California and now I'm stuck with those boring $ bills.
And since California is about to go bankrupt and has a triple digit unemployment number, only the best climate in the world is what we have left here. But that's good enough for me, as long as I can replanish the loss in my retirement fund with the gains in forex

Shamu
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  • #72,607
  • Mar 8, 2009 12:22am Mar 8, 2009 12:22am
Quoting KillerWhale
Well at least their money looks much prettier than the $ bills.
I lived in Europe on the introduction but early 2002 I moved to San Diego, California and now I'm stuck with those boring $ bills.
And since California is about to go bankrupt and has a triple digit unemployment number, only the best climate in the world is what we have left here. But that's good enough for me, as long as I can replanish the loss in my retirement fund with the gains in forex

Shamu
Nicely put, and agreed

What did you want? You got and Austrian (hint hint, the ones that lent tons of CHF/EUR to Eastern countries!) governor!

Off the joke, what i said a few posts back relating to countries is valid to states, collapses of this magnitude won't happen this easely.

Regarding funds, if I weren't managing some other funds and enjoying this volatilty, you'd bet I'd be on a shack in Tobago Cays
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  • #72,608
  • Mar 8, 2009 12:31am Mar 8, 2009 12:31am
[quote=Spsantos;2587355]Nicely put, and agreed



Regarding funds, if I weren't managing some other funds and enjoying this volatilty, you'd bet I'd be on a shack in Tobago Cays [/quote

Sounds beautimus, the problem is I couldn't even find a nice fish restaurant there. It looks as uninhabited islands.
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  • #72,609
  • Mar 8, 2009 12:35am Mar 8, 2009 12:35am
[quote=KillerWhale;2587359]
Quoting Spsantos
Nicely put, and agreed



Regarding funds, if I weren't managing some other funds and enjoying this volatilty, you'd bet I'd be on a shack in Tobago Cays [/quote

Sounds beautimus, the problem is I couldn't even find a nice fish restaurant there. It looks as uninhabited islands.

Mayreau is habited

EDIT: Internet search doesn't quite reach everywhere! (yet)
Traders are smartasses
  • #72,610
  • Mar 8, 2009 12:38am Mar 8, 2009 12:38am
Quoting Spsantos
Nicely put, and agreed

Regarding funds, if I weren't managing some other funds and enjoying this volatilty, you'd bet I'd be on a shack in Tobago Cays
And speaking of funds...
In March '07 a friend of mine approached me with a great investment deal in a condo project. I told him I didn't think the timing was right looking at what was happening in a few other states. I didn't invest, but he did. He thought life was great the rest of '07 and told me it wasn't too late to get in. Then the bubble broke. They foreclosed on his 4.4M last month. I lost mine in Lehman Brothers. $hit happens.
  • #72,611
  • Mar 8, 2009 12:52am Mar 8, 2009 12:52am
Quoting dysan4x
And speaking of funds...
In March '07 a friend of mine approached me with a great investment deal in a condo project. I told him I didn't think the timing was right looking at what was happening in a few other states. I didn't invest, but he did. He thought life was great the rest of '07 and told me it wasn't too late to get in. Then the bubble broke. They foreclosed on his 4.4M last month. I lost mine in Lehman Brothers. $hit happens.

Ouch I'm sorry to hear that.

For what it's worth, what led me out of stocks in late 2006 was the uncertainty, although I only had a few technical stocks (Intel, Nvidia, etc) the uncertainty was greater, i started to notice higher fluctuations... Time to quit being a long term trader. (and i was doing it part-time)

I turned solely into forex for the reason that my exposure would be the sum of number of trades i'd be making(more) to the time I was on a trade (less), summing that up i assumed risk was lower, and so far i'm happy with the results, even without counter measures like basket-trading (risky nowadays too), or options/futures.

Stocks are very risky right now, everyone is waiting for the bottom, but the truth is, a rally will happen, and there'll be some that'll cash in a lot in the recovery. (by this I, by any means, mean a recovery to previous values like 13K dji) my advice, commodities, commodities...!

G'nite all, peace
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  • #72,612
  • Mar 8, 2009 1:03am Mar 8, 2009 1:03am
Quoting dysan4x
And speaking of funds...
In March '07 a friend of mine approached me with a great investment deal in a condo project. I told him I didn't think the timing was right looking at what was happening in a few other states. I didn't invest, but he did. He thought life was great the rest of '07 and told me it wasn't too late to get in. Then the bubble broke. They foreclosed on his 4.4M last month. I lost mine in Lehman Brothers. $hit happens.
Well that tells us one thing. At this moment FX might be the only way to gain some net worth. (though I made a nice gain in Microsoft, Yahoo and Google shares in the last couple of weeks, but I badly lost on AIG and GE, (GE will come back in the future I hope, so I'm holding it at a buy price of $8.50)).
I really think FX is the way to go into the near future.

I would appreciate some feedback on the chart I posted earlier today and hear some thoughts about EU in the coming week.
My bias is down as I showed earlier.

Shamu
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  • #72,613
  • Mar 8, 2009 1:15am Mar 8, 2009 1:15am
Quoting KillerWhale
Well that tells us one thing. At this moment FX might be the only way to gain some net worth. (though I made a nice gain in Microsoft, Yahoo and Google shares in the last couple of weeks, but I badly lost on AIG and GE, (GE will come back in the future I hope, so I'm holding it at a buy price of $8.50)).
I really think FX is the way to go into the near future.

I would appreciate some feedback on the chart I posted earlier today and hear some thoughts about EU in the coming week.
My bias is down as I showed earlier.

Shamu
Hi KillerWhale,
I don't use any indicator when trading,just S/R and trend lines.I agree with you regarding your bias down.On last friday I close all my long positions at 1.2700 as it was quite clear PA had some problems to go higher 1.2750/70.

At the moment I left open 4 short positions with tight S/l to 1.2680.
Looking at the weekly close candle wich is bearish and sitting at 50% fibo level I would expect an opening gap down on monday.Just my 2 cents.
  • #72,614
  • Mar 8, 2009 1:27am Mar 8, 2009 1:27am
Quoting Legio_Ulpia
Hi KillerWhale,
I don't use any indicator when trading,just S/R and trend lines.I agree with you regarding your bias down.On last friday I close all my long positions at 1.2700 as it was quite clear PA had some problems to go higher 1.2750/70.

At the moment I left open 4 short positions with tight S/l to 1.2680.
Looking at the weekly close candle wich is bearish and sitting at 50% fibo level I would expect an opening gap down on monday.Just my 2 cents.
I don't really believe in gaps (I use Oanda and there is almost never a gap) but I posted something a few days ago that a trade in the weekend for a gap is not very risky.

If the gap is against you, just wait till it comes back, 99% of the time it comes back and you can close with a gain.
If the gap is with you, just collect your profit.

The only thing I would say to you is that your stop might be way too close.
Be a hero and put your stop @ 1.2760 and adjust your target downwards so you have a good profit/loss ratio? I don't know for how much you are in but if your money management is right then you should be able to do so.

Hope you get a killer out of this.

I believe in a new low coming week.

Shamu

I've found out that money management is far more important than choosing the right direction.
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  • #72,615
  • Mar 8, 2009 1:28am Mar 8, 2009 1:28am
Quoting KillerWhale
I would appreciate some feedback on the chart I posted earlier today and hear some thoughts about EU in the coming week.
My bias is down as I showed earlier.

Shamu
I don't use the same time frames you do, but we are in agreement on direction. I am expecting price somewhere in the 2670 area and then down to around 2490, but that is yet to be determined. I posted earlier good resistance at 2705 and support 2595. At the moment those areas are where I am watching for direction.

My bias is down also and agree with the chart you posted.
  • #72,616
  • Mar 8, 2009 1:39am Mar 8, 2009 1:39am
Quoting dysan4x
I don't use the same time frames you do, but we are in agreement on direction. I am expecting price somewhere in the 2670 area and then down to around 2490, but that is yet to be determined. I posted earlier good resistance at 2705 and support 2595. At the moment those areas are where I am watching for direction.

My bias is down also and agree with the chart you posted.

One thing I'm sure of, it's going to be an exiting week.
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  • #72,617
  • Mar 8, 2009 1:41am Mar 8, 2009 1:41am
Quoting KillerWhale
I don't really believe in gaps (I use Oanda and there is almost never a gap) but I posted something a few days ago that a trade in the weekend for a gap is not very risky.

If the gap is against you, just wait till it comes back, 99% of the time it comes back and you can close with a gain.
If the gap is with you, just collect your profit.

The only thing I would say to you is that your stop might be way too close.
Be a hero and put your stop @ 1.2760 and adjust your target downwards so you have a good profit/loss ratio? I don't know for how much...
My target is heading to 1.2400 since one week,regarding the stops you are right and I'm managing to adjust them if PA is with me.
Anyway,is everything is going as I expect it to go I'll add a long position too till the eventual gap is filled.
  • #72,618
  • Mar 8, 2009 1:44am Mar 8, 2009 1:44am
Quoting KillerWhale
One thing I'm sure of, it's going to be an exiting week.
You guys get a time change this weekend don't you? That will shift my trading patterns and have to reset my alerts.
  • #72,619
  • Mar 8, 2009 1:50am Mar 8, 2009 1:50am
Quoting dysan4x
You guys get a time change this weekend don't you? That will shift my trading patterns and have to reset my alerts.
Yes, we will set clocks back 1 hour in just 2 hours from now (who cares when you do it but that's the official thing).
So be aware you will lose an hour American time.
Where are you?
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  • #72,620
  • Mar 8, 2009 1:52am Mar 8, 2009 1:52am
Quoting KillerWhale
Yes, we will set clocks back 1 hour in just 2 hours from now (who cares when you do it but that's the official thing).
So be aware you will lose an hour American time.
Where are you?
I'm in the Philippines. I retired here last year. Originally from the midwest. I set alerts for 1hr before London and NY opens so that I am flat or at least well protected.
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