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  • #141
  • Mar 5, 2009 12:23pm Mar 5, 2009 12:23pm
Quoting elitejets
Waiting for crude inventories
This crude rally might get some legs if this trendline goes. I heard the chinese are getting out of some bonds and into crude.
How did you do with this, Nicola?

I don't trade crude but maybe I should as I have been involved in oil and gas all my working life, but there again I may be too emotionally attached.

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #142
  • Mar 5, 2009 12:57pm Mar 5, 2009 12:57pm
I meant to post this yesterday after that sell off bar but got distracted by attending to the demands of the trouble and strife!

As is evident now, I was going to say this looks like profit taking. Yesterday's bar was NOT an outside bearish engulfing bar - it's high was 10 pips below the previous day's high so it did not engulf the previous bar.

It was rejected by minor resistance at 1.2980 and bounced right back from major support at 1.2700 which is the third time in as many days that this level has been tested. This tells us, for now, that 1.2700 is as low as they are prepared to go or in other words. 1.2700 is a level where there are plenty of buyers.

I have all 4 cycles topping at this level but momentum is still strong so it suggests that all we can expect is a minor retracement down to 1.2625 which is in confluence with the 38.2% fib retrace at 1.2610 or if it gets through that, 1.2500, the 50% fib retrace with more minor support below it at 1.2450.

After polishing my crystal ball, I see more upward prices, maybe up to the 1.618 extension at 1.3565 or it could just be Nicola wishing for a pay rise from currency exchange!

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #143
  • Mar 5, 2009 1:01pm Mar 5, 2009 1:01pm
Strat,

You mention things like "3 out of 4 cycles blah blah" in your analysis. I've never read anything about it so what would you suggest for reading? Can you mention a little blurb about the basics behind the strategy here?
  • #144
  • Edited 2:00pm Mar 5, 2009 1:47pm | Edited 2:00pm
Yes, I did and sold it at the resistance @1.18 while I waited to see if it would break up or not (it didn't) but a nice 140 pips.

I am starting to really like this price action and SR levels!
Have not ditched my moving averages and CCI's yet but ...

Quoting strat
Did you take this, Nicola, and how did you do?

Rock n Roll,
Strat
  • #145
  • Mar 5, 2009 1:50pm Mar 5, 2009 1:50pm
This did not work (today). Crude really follows the indices and so much for the Asian euphoria rally.
It did look good but then so did the equities rally
There is a nice set up forming for a long now but not going to tempt me at this time of day.

Quoting strat
How did you do with this, Nicola?

I don't trade crude but maybe I should as I have been involved in oil and gas all my working life, but there again I may be too emotionally attached.

Rock n Roll,
Strat
  • #146
  • Mar 5, 2009 2:12pm Mar 5, 2009 2:12pm
gunslinger, you stole my thunder

I've been googling cycles but keep getting offered mountain bikes.

Strat, could you point us in the right direction, or better still, give us a brief overview.

thanks

TonyH
  • #147
  • Edited 2:41pm Mar 5, 2009 2:38pm | Edited 2:41pm
Quoting thegunslinger
Strat,

You mention things like "3 out of 4 cycles blah blah" in your analysis. I've never read anything about it so what would you suggest for reading? Can you mention a little blurb about the basics behind the strategy here?
Hello tgs,

Cycles and frequency analysis fascinate me so I try to include it in my trading. Unfortunately, I can't find any proven software for forex so I have had to cobble my own.

That being the case, it's very experimental right now and as I said before, I'm not sure it has value or is worth the effort. There are also 2 types of cycles - price cycles and time cycles and because I can't find any time analysis software, I am only doing price cycle analysis which is no better really than the myriad of indicators already out there.

As I write this, I can hear old Dr. Joe saying "you don't need nutin' fancy" and remember that he spent over 5 years trying and therefore think I'm wasting my time but what the heck, I've got to do something during the day otherwise the trouble and strife will have me doing household chores and jobs - I need her to think I'm busy!

If you go on the web for a search, be very, very careful and wary of what is out there. Most are scammers trying to sell "junk" while others put up a fancy site with chart examples showing how powerful their indicator/software is - I can do that also - I could put up a chart showing how great my experimental cycles are BUT what they won't show you is that a couple of weeks later, as the market decides to do a 7/9th cycle followed by a 4/7th cycle, their indicator/software is about as useful as rocking horse sh*t!

Cycles are as frustrating as Elliott Wave, except to me, they look better.

The cycle analysts I have the most respect for are:

Walter Bressert and John F. Ehlers

If you find anything useful, keep me in the loop

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #148
  • Mar 5, 2009 2:44pm Mar 5, 2009 2:44pm
Quoting ajhill
gunslinger, you stole my thunder

I've been googling cycles but keep getting offered mountain bikes.

Strat, could you point us in the right direction, or better still, give us a brief overview.

thanks

TonyH
Sorry, Tony, your post must have come in while I was typing the response to tgs so please see that answer. Thanks.

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #149
  • Mar 5, 2009 3:21pm Mar 5, 2009 3:21pm
I took a short on the jpy as it pulled back to 50%. Target is the spike up at 94.50.

Now we just watch and wait.

Boring is good.

golfer
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  • #150
  • Mar 5, 2009 3:24pm Mar 5, 2009 3:24pm
Quoting elitejets
Yes, I did and sold it at the resistance @1.18 while I waited to see if it would break up or not (it didn't) but a nice 140 pips.

I am starting to really like this price action and SR levels!
Have not ditched my moving averages and CCI's yet but ...
Don't ditch the moving averages - they are powerful

I was going to tell you what the CCI does and doesn't do but instead will just issue you a challenge - instead of watching the CCIs, watch the price bars - they tell you everything the CCI can do and so much more. You could be using the CCIs as your crutch to lean on which is restricting your growth in reading the price bars.

In between hiring out your private jets, go back on your trades and take the CCIs off and, using f12, simulate trading conditions. I think you will find you have both better entries and exits plus you will understand more about what you are doing.

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #151
  • Mar 5, 2009 3:37pm Mar 5, 2009 3:37pm
Quoting golferfx
I took a short on the jpy as it pulled back to 50%. Target is the spike up at 94.50.

Now we just watch and wait.

Boring is good.

golfer
No, you put the trade on (in accordance with your plan - you do have a plan - right?) and go out and play 18 holes!

The 50% retrace has been marked up on my charts for some time as has the BOSS 50 at 100.21 (which was my next target if it got past 100).

Why are you watching and waiting? What are you looking for? If you have a plan there is no need to sit and watch.

Sitting and watching induces stress and entices the demons, goblins and guys in the mirror!

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #152
  • Mar 5, 2009 3:53pm Mar 5, 2009 3:53pm
Quoting strat
No, you put the trade on (in accordance with your plan - you do have a plan - right?) and go out and play 18 holes!

The 50% retrace has been marked up on my charts for some time as has the BOSS 50 at 100.21 (which was my next target if it got past 100).

Why are you watching and waiting? What are you looking for? If you have a plan there is no need to sit and watch.

Sitting and watching induces stress and entices the demons, goblins and guys in the mirror!

Rock n Roll,
Strat




Amen to that...
  • #153
  • Mar 5, 2009 4:19pm Mar 5, 2009 4:19pm
Quoting golferfx
Amen to that...
Be careful with this trade - it is the 1st Friday of the month tomorrow which means:

NFP

And in these turbulent times, anything can happen, also today's bar is bouncing off minor resistance at 97.50 which has been tested 5 times in the last 6 days.

If it gets past this, we should see some sort of reaction at the 20 at 95.50

Rock n Roll,
Strat

15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #154
  • Mar 5, 2009 4:49pm Mar 5, 2009 4:49pm
Seems like today is test support day with many pairs testing support.

Since tomorrow is the 1st Friday of the month which means:

NFP

I will not be placing any trades this evening.

AUDUSD: IB today with major resistance 50 pips away at 0.6300

CHFJPY: IB bouncing off major resistance at 84.90 to 85.20 which has been tested twice already. Minor resistance at 83.00

EURJPY: Outside bearish engulfing bar BUT bouncing off support already tested 6 times before.

EURUSD: Bouncing off support already tested twice before

GBPCHF: Outside bearish engulfing bar with minor resistance at 1.6450 tested 9 times since end of Jan.

GBPJPY: Quintuple top with bearish bar but not supported by volume or market sentiment. Being rejected by minor resistance at 141.50 tested 4 times since Jan AND by BOSS 20. When this thing finally gives in, we should move into the next leg/trend down.

USDCAD: Bouncing up off major support at 1.2770 which has been tested 12 times - is this the end of profit taking? Volume and market sentiment suggests it is. If it wasn't for NFP, I would have a buy order above today's high.

Rock n Roll,
Strat

15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #155
  • Mar 5, 2009 8:50pm Mar 5, 2009 8:50pm
Hey Strat,

Thanks for the info, I love your analyisis on the markets.

My trade is set and T/P set, so not much to do for now.

Not much of a news trader so I will be playin golf.


I will keep posting my long term trades.

Good weekend all,

golferfx
  • #156
  • Mar 6, 2009 12:07am Mar 6, 2009 12:07am
"Consistent losers do almost anything to avoid accepting the reality that, no matter how good a trade looks, it could lose. Without the presence of an external structure forcing the typical trader to think otherwise, he is susceptible to any number of justifications, rationalizations, and the kind of distorted logic that will allow him to get into a trade believing that it can't lose, which makes determining the risk in advance irrelevant."

... Mark Douglas, Trading in the Zone: Master the Market with Confidence, Discipline and a Winning Attitude
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #157
  • Edited 12:11am Mar 6, 2009 12:09am | Edited 12:11am

  1. Richard McCall, The Way of the Warrior-Trader
  2. Brett Steenbarger, Enhancing Trader Performance
  3. Brett Steenbarger, The Psychology of Trading
  4. Mark Douglas,Trading in the Zone
  5. Richards J Heuer, Jr, Psychology of Intelligence Analysis

Brett Steenbarger, The Daily Trading Coach: 101 Lessons for Becoming Your Own Trading Psychologist

15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #158
  • Mar 6, 2009 3:02am Mar 6, 2009 3:02am
Run for your lives get the women and children out


N F P !!!!!!!
  • #159
  • Mar 6, 2009 3:20am Mar 6, 2009 3:20am
It hurt taking my orders off..And i did a bad thing i looked at price and saw she did one of my pre ordered plays all of it.Then i thought id get your take and wow your just like me in your attitude towards today.I hope you have a massive account.

bon weekend G
  • #160
  • Mar 6, 2009 4:33am Mar 6, 2009 4:33am
I'm enjoying the thread guys. A lot different to what I do but at least we aren't talking about some bells and whistles, guaranteed pip magnet. Nice to hear peoples different ideas.

Interesting Strat what you say about CCIs. I still have them on my charts but I don't think I've really looked at them in a few weeks. MAs, for me, are much better.

I've also found my trades work out much better when an order is hit as opposed to when I pull the trigger.
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