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  • #101
  • Mar 4, 2009 3:10am Mar 4, 2009 3:10am
Strat...if I may...

thank you for sharing your experience - another great thread up there with those authored by Jacko, James 16 and Billy Ray Valentine to name but a few.

If only the newer traders actually LISTENED (me included) and REALLY implemented what you all have shared...we'd be on our way to long term success far far faster...

but we're always trying to make things..."better"...

hell...I'm still trying to reinvent the wheel but have a hard time finding a shape that will work any better than the one we have today.....I wonder why???


Cheers

John
Nihil inimicus quam sibi ipse Marcus Tullius Cicero
  • #102
  • Mar 4, 2009 5:51am Mar 4, 2009 5:51am
Being a Great Britan i do like a bit of tennis,i did live in Wimbledon for years.

Im with you on the cable sell.I do like your analysis its spot on.
  • #103
  • Mar 4, 2009 7:30am Mar 4, 2009 7:30am
Quoting strat
If you are getting whipsawed on H4 then move up a time frame which will keep you out until the momentum is in the direction of your trade.

I'm not looking to get in at the top or bottom - I just want the "meat" in the middle of a trend - this is the safest with the lowest risk.

Rock n Roll,
Strat
'I just want the 'meat' in the middle of the trend'. I think I just had an "AH HA' moment, thanks to that statement. That makes a lot of sense to me.

But how do you personally discern, first that momentum is in the direction of the trade, and what boundaries your going to institute as your quote unquote 'meat'.

For example you made a call that you would short the EUR/GBP at 0.8920, with a TP of 0.8770. Im supposing this is what you would consider the meat of the trend. How did you come up with those two points, and what is your stop loss? (Btw, as im typing your up 13 pips; it was more, but its currently retracing...)

Im starting to understand your thought processes, when you are deciding on whether or not to pull the trigger. I hope im not bombarding you with too many questions, im just eager to learn.

Thanks for all your help thus far, its been enlightening.

BWise
  • #104
  • Mar 4, 2009 9:18am Mar 4, 2009 9:18am
Quoting strat
mea,

You answered yourself with your PS: directly below your name.

I like to learn a long term strategy for more than one reason, but one reason is very imminent.

The trigger finger!
If one is day trading the chance to get in to early and way to often is very present.

I have the feeling I need to go with a strategy that keeps me not only away from the PC and therefor from the attached mouse which makes it so
easy to lose my money....

You might be right, I am not even skilled enough to play the guitar, doesn't matter what brand!
but I have friends they do, still are not smart enough to play FX!

and yes you have to feel at least 18, better 18 plus one day!
***
  • #105
  • Mar 4, 2009 9:35am Mar 4, 2009 9:35am
Waiting for crude inventories
This crude rally might get some legs if this trendline goes. I heard the chinese are getting out of some bonds and into crude.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: brent daily.gif Size: 21 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: wti daily.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #106
  • Mar 4, 2009 10:06am Mar 4, 2009 10:06am
Quoting ajhill
Just wanted to share something with the group.

A while back I was PM'ing with Strat. He asked me some questions about trading, one of which being what I understood about price action. My answer was, quite obviously (now), one of complete non-understanding. Strat didn't reply again. I don't blame him.

So what did I do. Well I went out and found out about it. It's easy really. Open google, or yahoo, or ask, or whatever your preferred search engine and type in "price action trading". Hey presto! A multitude of websites discussing the topic....
Hey There, Tony, Bloom, Nicola, et al.
Birds of a feather, eh!!
Honest Bill
  • #107
  • Mar 4, 2009 10:14am Mar 4, 2009 10:14am
With the USD/CHF pushing to new highs over night and a higher low forming at resistance-turned-support around the 1.1760-70 area, I've decided to go long. Unfortunately, I'm not actually at my trading machine so this one is just a paper trade unless I get home and find price still in that neighborhood. Otherwise, I'll have to find an entry later on that's less optimal (as in not as awesome a price level).

Long @ 1.1771. The stop would be 1.1725 with a target at 1.2200. This is an aggressive entry because it still hasn't broken resistance at 1.8150 and therefore it could go back down. That's why I'm using a small stop loss.
  • #108
  • Mar 4, 2009 11:42am Mar 4, 2009 11:42am
Quoting Baba G
still in,yep agree with your levels.Im on a free trade so hopefully the retrace is over.My plan is to see if i can get a bit of this trade into the next leg down.we shall see fingers crossed but no loss whatever so its good.Lets get some more bars in out there.G
Did anyone take note of this?

My goal, and the purpose of starting this thread, is not to just trade the 1 day, 3 day or 1 week moves for 100 to 900 pips or so, but to find AND trade the long term trends.

Since I haven't found out how to identify a trend before it starts, all we can do is get in at the safest, lowest risk point and ride it out with fingers crossed and prayers prayed for planet alignment that it will turn into one of those mega - trends.

This is exactly what Baba G is saying and doing in his post.

This requires a totally different trading mentality than the H4 and below traders. We have to BELIEVE that we got our plan right and be prepared to sit it out until it tells us we are wrong. Most of the time we will get it wrong and either get stopped out at break even or for minimum % risk. The few times that we get it right make up for those wrong times a thousand times over. I won't blind you with pips but if you compound and add on to those trends we saw in EURUSD, EURGBP, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, to name but a few, from June last year to the end of the year, you would have made your yearly salary several ten times over.

To further show the potential, professional trader friends of the guys from another forum, made over $six figures millions selling GBPUSD from 2.1 down to 1.5. They are the exception but nevertheless, in relative terms, identify the potential.

One way to do this is to trade multiple lots. If you can't afford multiple lots then reduce your $/pip so that you can. Once the strategy and trade is planned, then trade the plan with 3 lots. How you manage 3 lots or other multiples is up to the individual trader. There are as many ways to do this as there are traders - it all depends on your risk aversion.

Take note of Baba G - he was in at the very beginning with Jim of James 16 and now, two years later, in addition to trading his own accounts, trades for others using nothing other than price action with support and resistance. From rank amateur to professional trader - an inspiration to us all. Thank you, Baba G.

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #109
  • Mar 4, 2009 12:20pm Mar 4, 2009 12:20pm
I bet that caught your attention!

I have never been able to do this so when I saw "How to identify a trend before it starts" in the promotional materials sent to me by email a couple of weeks ago, it got my attention.

The wheels of my mechanical logic started turning. "How to see something that isn't there!" Impossible is my first reaction but then I go back to physics which tells me, "Energy can neither be created nor destroyed only transposed from one form to another".

Does this mean that there is something in price and time out there that we have all been missing that this well known trader has found? Does it mean that this is a ssh, secret, known only to a few? W.D. Gann certainly found out a lot - much more than he disclosed in his writings - it is known in the Gann circles that he used planetary alignment in his analyses. Or is it just another scam to get money out of our pockets to pay for "so called successful traders" to live. If it was so powerful and such a secret, why would anyone want to share it?

By the way, in my search for the Holy Grail, I have spent $tens of thousands on financial astrology including being a member of Welles Wilder's Delta Phenomenon. They were all as much use as a crack in a glass eye!

Most traders concentrate and focus on price but that is only half the puzzle - the missing half is time, which has fascinated me from day one of my trading career. There are traders out there, Larry Pesavento is one, who trade on time alone. I think it's because I did my thesis on Harmonic Frequency Vibration and Resonance that pushes me into time cycles etc.

Anyway, I wandered off topic. What I'm doing now is looking at the guarantee on this book to see if I can return it for full payment if it turns out, like most others, to be a waste of a tree.

No, I'm not still looking for the Holy Grail as, in my earlier posts, I said I had found it. I am just looking for ways to improve, if possible, what already successfully works for me. I'm still learning and will be until I meet Buddy Holly!

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #110
  • Mar 4, 2009 1:01pm Mar 4, 2009 1:01pm
Quoting coscorp
Strat...if I may...

thank you for sharing your experience - another great thread up there with those authored by Jacko, James 16 and Billy Ray Valentine to name but a few.

If only the newer traders actually LISTENED (me included) and REALLY implemented what you all have shared...we'd be on our way to long term success far far faster...

but we're always trying to make things..."better"...

hell...I'm still trying to reinvent the wheel but have a hard time finding a shape that will work any better than the one we have today.....I wonder why???...
Hello John,

Thanks for the kind words. I wish I was "up there" with Jacko - he's got $millions, I have only $thousands - but $money is not everything - I like to think I can trade as good as "me old mate". "Old" - that's a laugh - he's ten years younger than I!!!!

As you can see from some of my experiences, I was told and taught but although I listened, I didn't "hear". I don't know how to explain it. For me, it seemed as if I had to go through torture and loss of $hundreds of thousands before "the light went on". Others, like Nicola here, only have to be shown once and they get it straightaway.

I share (or did) your need to take something and make it better. I would always find something, trade it, prove it works and then try to improve on it.

I bet you also troll all the Forums out there looking for new systems, strategies and maybe indicators - I know I did.

It was only when I got to the "light going on" moment that I realised I knew more than most of the scammers and developers out there. At that point, I accepted my strengths and weaknesses and developed my own method using what worked for me.

When you develop your own method/strategy, you know more about it and understand it better than anyone else and it gives you the confidence and belief to use it. My method is not new, just applying common sense to tried and proven practices.

My advice is to know what works for you then build YOUR method around it using everything and anything you have learned and trade it until you make it into a profitable method. You will be amazed at how much you will grow as a trader by doing this.

Thanks for visiting and feel free to ask questions - we are building up a team of quality traders on here.

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #111
  • Mar 4, 2009 1:05pm Mar 4, 2009 1:05pm
Quoting Baba G
Being a Great Britan i do like a bit of tennis,i did live in Wimbledon for years.

Im with you on the cable sell.I do like your analysis its spot on.
Oh no! Were you one of those Wombles?

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #112
  • Edited 4:08pm Mar 4, 2009 2:11pm | Edited 4:08pm
Quoting BWise
'I just want the 'meat' in the middle of the trend'. I think I just had an "AH HA' moment, thanks to that statement. That makes a lot of sense to me.

But how do you personally discern, first that momentum is in the direction of the trade, and what boundaries your going to institute as your quote unquote 'meat'.

For example you made a call that you would short the EUR/GBP at 0.8920, with a TP of 0.8770. Im supposing this is what you would consider the meat of the trend. How did you come up with those two points, and what is your stop loss?...
You worry me, my friend - ""Im starting to understand your thought processes"" - nobody, not even my trouble and strife for over 45 years can understand me or my thought process!

Seriously though, these are all what I hope to expand on in later posts in fact I just did one earlier on about early trend recognition.

""But how do you personally discern, first that momentum is in the direction of the trade, and what boundaries your going to institute as your quote unquote 'meat'.""

Let me just whet your appetite to get your creative juices flowing. See attached chart.

We don't know where the start of the next trend is so all we can do is trade the immediate opportunities. On Oct 21 08 we bought 3 lots on price action at .7784 and got out on 2 lots on price action on Oct 28 08 at .7984 for 200 pips. We left 1 lot running now at BE at our entry .7784. Nothing yet to tell us about trend except the shooting star on Oct 24 was a new high (but bearish). We sold 3 lots at .7984 on Oct 28.

The inverted hammer bouncing off the Weekly 50 (OUR BOSS) raised the red flag and stops were pulled in to the top of the inverted hammer. The next day, Oct 30 saw the sellers give their all to drive the prices lower but they couldn't get past the Weekly 50 - the second test. This was the sign to abandon all shorts so we got out the next day at .7840 for a small 144 pip profit.

On Oct 31 we had a sign that a trend was forming - can you see it?

On Nov 03 we bought boatloads (sorry Mr. MM) at .7940 with a SL at ?

When we saw the high of the shooting star at .8193 taken out on Nov 12, we knew we were in fat city!

From then on it was just a case of managing the position and adding and compounding like it was going out of style.

So, the "meat" is after the first confirmation of the trend. Finding the end of the "meat" is a little more difficult but still relatively easy depending on your greed for profit.

If you apply old Dr Joe to this, you can see that it works really well.

Hopefully that will get you thinking but I'm hoping, if there is sufficient interest, to go into this and other "stress free" trading methods later.

Now, understanding the above, can you answer yourself on my EURGBP trade?

Another point, a trade is put on as part of a plan (PLAN THE TRADE). Once the trade is entered, the trick is to TRADE THE PLAN. If you are trading the Daily chart, then TRADE THE DAILY chart - forget about how many pips you are up or down, your plan takes care of that. So many traders try to trade the Daily with a H4, H1, M15 or M5 mentality and then wonder why it doesn't work!

Enough for now, Manchester City against Aston Villa is live on Fox Sports so I have to go.

Rock n Roll,
Strat
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbpoct08 to dec08.gif Size: 28 KB
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #113
  • Mar 4, 2009 2:19pm Mar 4, 2009 2:19pm
Hi Strat,

Thanks for your guidance, I'm following along.

In regard to ol doc Joe's strategy personally I think its easier said than done.

How would you know when the trend ends? what if their is no discernable trend and you keep switching between buying and selling till you no longer have any money left to buy or sell?

what if you buy on a decline in an uptrend and the price goes further south and you buy some more and it goes down still some more and you realize its a trend change (everything looks great in hindsight doesn't it). Well it would seem you've lost one out of the two times doc joe said you would lose but the problem is you've bought down so much or held on for so long that you you cant lose anymore as you have no money left to trade with. Worst still right after you're out of business the price starts moving back up again. egggh.

What I'd like to say if I may is that trading really isn't simple, if it were simple 90% wouldn't fail assuming the majority ie 90% are capable of successfully accomplishing simple tasks. If you find the majority unable to successfully do something what does it tell you .... it tells you what you thought to be simple is actually not so. SIMPLY because most people haven't been able to do it.

Lets consider the corollary lets assume 90% of the participants are successful this would mean that since the majority have succeeded it is indeed simple and your assumption was correct.

How can something with a gigantic sample size spread over all cross sections of society be simple if the overwhelming majority fail.

You trade profitably could mean its simple for you but given the statistics I wouldnt agree with the statement "trading is simple".

I wish it were so but it isn't.

Think about it.
  • #114
  • Mar 4, 2009 2:19pm Mar 4, 2009 2:19pm
I see EUR/USD is making little W. Got long @1.2646 TP1.2800
  • #115
  • Mar 4, 2009 2:34pm Mar 4, 2009 2:34pm
  •  zykas
  • | Joined Oct 2008 | Status: ... measure thrice, but cut once | 196 Posts
[
Another point, a trade is put on as part of a plan (PLAN THE TRADE). Once the trade is entered, the trick is to TRADE THE PLAN. If you are trading the Daily chart, then TRADE THE DAILY chart - forget about how many pips you are up or down, your plan takes care of that. So many traders try to trade the Daily with a H4, H1, M15 or M5 mentality and then wonder why it doesn't work!

Rock n Roll,
Strat[/quote]


Good thread . A real stress free method. Its worth following , at least. Ride on
I like the Big Dogs because I trade like them
  • #116
  • Mar 4, 2009 2:46pm Mar 4, 2009 2:46pm
Quoting thegunslinger
With the USD/CHF pushing to new highs over night and a higher low forming at resistance-turned-support around the 1.1760-70 area, I've decided to go long....
Good thing this wasn't for real.

There's a reason I have BE PATIENT written in giant letters on the whiteboard above my computer. My analysis is often right but I get impatient and enter before solid confirmation. I'm working on it and getting better at it (I haven't jumped on any of the other waiting trades, I dunno why I felt inclined to do this one) but impatience still creeps its ugly head in every once in awhile.
  • #117
  • Mar 4, 2009 3:41pm Mar 4, 2009 3:41pm
Quoting strat
Others, like Nicola here, only have to be shown once and they get it straightaway.
If only ....
I'm good at following rules but there is no rule book for the psychology of trading ... That one I am working on.
Thanks though!
  • #118
  • Mar 4, 2009 3:52pm Mar 4, 2009 3:52pm
Quoting elitejets
Waiting for crude inventories
This crude rally might get some legs if this trendline goes. I heard the chinese are getting out of some bonds and into crude.
Looks like consolidation to me - a wave 4 perhaps?

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #119
  • Mar 4, 2009 3:54pm Mar 4, 2009 3:54pm
Quoting Honest Bill
Hey There, Tony, Bloom, Nicola, et al.
Birds of a feather, eh!!
Everyone is welcome here

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #120
  • Mar 4, 2009 4:01pm Mar 4, 2009 4:01pm
Quoting thegunslinger
With the USD/CHF pushing to new highs over night and a higher low forming at resistance-turned-support around the 1.1760-70 area, I've decided to go long....
tgs,

I guess that's the difference between a young stud and an old fart - I need to wait for a strong close above resistance before I take my hand off my wallet!

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
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