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  • #71,721
  • Mar 5, 2009 1:18pm Mar 5, 2009 1:18pm
Quoting TIckerShuffl
I am afraid to say it, but I am still long...amassing quite a large position on dips.

- Treasury sell off pending

- Euro Bond spread to US Treasuries Looks like Euro Bonds gaing favor..at least yesterday

- Dollar index Double Top

- Gold heading to all time highs?

- Oil rebound?

- US stock equities reaching a bottom

- Daily and multiple time frame bullish divergence

Still waiting
I think short term you are correct. But inline with the overall trend I think we are going to see a new swing high (lower high) and then a retreat.

I'm watching Asians closely today to see how high they push price because its possible they push all the way to the swing. I'm struggling with the fact that its Friday coming up and whether or not this pair will get that high on a Friday is to be determined.
  • #71,722
  • Mar 5, 2009 1:19pm Mar 5, 2009 1:19pm
Quoting psiholog
someone asked about eur/usd . the current picture is clear cut. since we have made the low we have made higher highs and higher lows until we hit a stop at 1.2565....massive S/R level. this level is so strong..were either gonna break hard to the upside or this ascending triangle will break hard to the downside. which way we go..who knows anymore...all i can say is its not worth playing at this time with the us market as dismal as it is today...were already low...the only question remaining is how low can we go and sacrificing an opinion position...
Good observation. Number of charts I have looked at since closing all my trades this morning = ZERO. Number of charts I plan on looking at rest of this week = ZERO.

Great time to take two days off I think.

The market will move again on Monday and the day after and the day after and every day after that.
+ Charts Happen
  • #71,723
  • Mar 5, 2009 1:20pm Mar 5, 2009 1:20pm
Quoting gatorinla
hey im thinking we would have trouble making it back to anything above 2600. 2600/2611 had a lot of s/r we only got there yesterday because of china.. whats your thought?
honestly there is too much conflicting data at this time in my mind to develop a bias or even an estimate of the most likely outcome. heres why

the stock market especially financials crashed today....there even was a gap down and we are currently at the lows. so much pressure to the downside...before this ends...we may have a massive bull rally in the last hour or 2..who knows


secondly..the ecb cut rates as expected and trichet indicated that there is room for further cuts in the future which suggests continued dollar strength. but while all this happened..we have not made a new low yet...a break below this week's low. this too could go either way now even though from a fundamental and technical point of view we should continue south (with 1.2565 acting as strong resistance now which was previous strong support)

to top it all off...there is the nfp data tommorow. not only is it friday... its also one of the greatest fundamental indicators of the health of our economy. this may cause a buy the rumor sell the news effect...or a massive continued selloff or even a massive bull rally. I have even seen swings of 200pips down at the start of us session and 200pips back up at the end.


TO conclude...i have no idea what will happen....all im doing right now is waiting for us session close and see where we stand..what range might have developed or patterns...try to play that
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #71,724
  • Mar 5, 2009 1:20pm Mar 5, 2009 1:20pm
I'm playing long while scalping short. Looks like we might have a little drop here btw...
  • #71,725
  • Edited 1:36pm Mar 5, 2009 1:23pm | Edited 1:36pm
Quoting TIckerShuffl
I am afraid to say it, but I am still long...amassing quite a large position on dips.

- Treasury sell off pending

- Euro Bond spread to US Treasuries Looks like Euro Bonds gaing favor..at least yesterday

- Dollar index Double Top

- Gold heading to all time highs?

- Oil rebound?

- US stock equities reaching a bottom

- Daily and multiple time frame bullish divergence

Still waiting
dont know about the rest yes gold is up.. s&p is down.. oil is down.... and that dollar index at least for today has broken double top..88.969 up .68% today.. id be careful
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #71,726
  • Mar 5, 2009 1:24pm Mar 5, 2009 1:24pm
Quoting psiholog
honestly there is too much conflicting data at this time in my mind to develop a bias or even an estimate of the most likely outcome. heres why

Well, I've noticed since all this economic chaos the news effect on this pair has really become less significant.

There hasn't been a news release yet this year , that I'm aware of, that has altered the course of the predominant trends.

So luckily I've been able to get a good position on my shorts so that these spikes haven't come near my entries, but as soon as this price gets near the bottom of the current wedge I will close all my shorts in anticipation of NFP release.
  • #71,727
  • Mar 5, 2009 1:29pm Mar 5, 2009 1:29pm
Quoting GrnEydGuy
...but as soon as this price gets near the bottom of the current wedge I will close all my shorts in anticipation of NFP release.
Oh yeah, and I personally will not be placing any longs just because it is against the overall trend. I will probably just wait to place short entries on new highs starting around 2600 and up to 2800-2850 with really tight stops.

That way when price reverses I should have some good entries.
  • #71,728
  • Mar 5, 2009 1:29pm Mar 5, 2009 1:29pm
Quoting GrnEydGuy
Well, I've noticed since all this economic chaos the news effect on this pair has really become less significant.

There hasn't been a news release yet this year , that I'm aware of, that has altered the course of the predominant trends.
You are entirely correct sir and I fully agree. News in general nowadays does not change the fact that the global economy is in big shit with the US leading the way and the Eurozone quickly catching up. Until we see some news that actually shows change to a positive note on a global scale..this is how news will most likely play out all the time.


Still...certain data like rate decisions and Nfp numbers are always crucial to watch as they ascertain where we may go next or even for the simple reason of "avoid the volatility at time of release".
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #71,729
  • Mar 5, 2009 1:32pm Mar 5, 2009 1:32pm
Quoting psiholog
honestly there is too much conflicting data at this time in my mind to develop a bias or even an estimate of the most likely outcome. heres why

the stock market especially financials crashed today....there even was a gap down and we are currently at the lows. so much pressure to the downside...before this ends...we may have a massive bull rally in the last hour or 2..who knows


secondly..the ecb cut rates as expected and trichet indicated that there is room for further cuts in the future which suggests continued dollar strength. but while all...
nfp may cause a spike.. remember german news this morning was bad.. after dust settles bad news for u.s. is worse news for eur..its all relative.. just gonna set sl to be+ 5 and if it spikes gonna enter hopfully above 2640..wherever that may be..where still below daily p so im gonna play it that way for now
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #71,730
  • Mar 5, 2009 1:34pm Mar 5, 2009 1:34pm
Quoting dotweb.pl
This isnt anything new media always needs someone to blame for everything, primeminister, president doesnt matter they just need someone and they always find one

Back to our pair, it seemds we may be going down a little bit right now.
It is not always that they "need someone to blame", but it is always that they need something to fill their air time.......

Journalism used to be totally unbiased, totally filled with facts, and no personal opinions. Nowadays it is biased, personal feelings are readily expressed one way or the other, and facts seem to be irrelevant.....(I guess they don't work hard enough to get enough to fill their air time).
  • #71,731
  • Mar 5, 2009 1:35pm Mar 5, 2009 1:35pm
Quoting traderathome
No, only the ignorant think that way. Intelligent people realize it is the arrogance, greed, and manipulative ways of many of the wealthy class that has done such damage to the USA and countries around the world. They realize where the culprits are, just like the working class of the United States realize where the culprits are.
I am far from ignorant Trader. I think those that are ignorant are the ones who look at the U.S. for reasons to hate the U.S. "Blame America First" politics are practiced all too often by ignorant, self-loathing, guilty people...the rest of us look for real answers, not platitudes about the evil rich people...but feel free to call me ignorant anytime you want.
  • #71,732
  • Mar 5, 2009 1:37pm Mar 5, 2009 1:37pm
Quoting GrnEydGuy
Well, I've noticed since all this economic chaos the news effect on this pair has really become less significant.

we are all so used for bad news, that if tomorrow a tsunami would wipe NY it would effect much...

I am so surprised to see that the pair is not moving with a SP touching -4%

happy piping
  • #71,733
  • Mar 5, 2009 1:40pm Mar 5, 2009 1:40pm
Quoting Doniboy
I am far from ignorant Trader. I think those that are ignorant are the ones who look at the U.S. for reasons to hate the U.S. "Blame America First" politics are practiced all too often by ignorant, self-loathing, guilty people...the rest of us look for real answers, not platitudes about the evil rich people...but feel free to call me ignorant anytime you want.
I don't recall calling you ignorant. I do recall saying only ignorant people hate (all of) America and believe everyone does. Of course, don't let me stand in the way....if the shoe fits, wear it.
  • #71,734
  • Mar 5, 2009 1:45pm Mar 5, 2009 1:45pm
Quoting traderathome
I don't recall calling you ignorant. I do recall saying only ignorant people hate (all of) America and believe everyone does. Of course, don't let me stand in the way....if the shoe fits, wear it.
Well If I misread your post then I would have apologized, but then you did it again...so right back at ya...

wishing many pips to you anyway.
  • #71,735
  • Mar 5, 2009 2:00pm Mar 5, 2009 2:00pm
I'm starting to think Thursdays are the new Fridays.

They've sucked lately.

Anyhow... the support you saw today on this pair wasn't humans.

We can't trade that fast.

It was black boxes protecting options barriers.

The cuts should have sent this pair to new lows.

Those bitches (read black boxes) took 80 PIPS from me before I could blink.

Ok... next post will be more informative.
  • #71,736
  • Mar 5, 2009 2:02pm Mar 5, 2009 2:02pm
since mosty traders in equitys are day trading now they might selloff even more before the close with the pending nfp at market open tomorrow..last hour now so we will c
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #71,737
  • Mar 5, 2009 2:03pm Mar 5, 2009 2:03pm
Quoting acumen
Ok... next post will be more informative.
Coming from you and knowing your background, that was informative.
  • #71,738
  • Mar 5, 2009 2:03pm Mar 5, 2009 2:03pm
i for one will pay undivided attention to last hour..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #71,739
  • Mar 5, 2009 2:17pm Mar 5, 2009 2:17pm
Pivots.

A trend line.

Self explanatory.

m
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  • #71,740
  • Mar 5, 2009 2:17pm Mar 5, 2009 2:17pm
this pair should give us some romance ... a big candle to fire all the night ... 1h chart bring the sunrise @2660.
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