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  • #241
  • Mar 29, 2007 5:02am Mar 29, 2007 5:02am
That looks like a Mac graphic!!

Quoting kharvell
Hey BearPaw,

Looks like you are in some good trades. All three pairs are "flirting" with the lower bollinger band line, which usually indicates a reversal. The only pair I'd look out for some resistance on is USD/CAD. Here's a pic of my chart. It's having some trouble passing the first speed line as you can see, but a break of this speed line, will indicate you are in the right side.

Good luck,

Kevin
  • #242
  • Edited 8:02am Mar 29, 2007 7:57am | Edited 8:02am
Hi,

I also got in on this Gold trade setup which has been rather good

Instrument: Gold
Direction: Short
Entry: 665.20
Stoploss: 670.80
Target: SMA

Trade is in the + now
  • #243
  • Mar 29, 2007 9:08am Mar 29, 2007 9:08am
Quoting BearPaw
I need to read your previous posts about the speed lines.

Thanks Kevin.

BP
Hey BearPaw,

I'm looking at USD/CAD, and it does appear to have been stubborn at the first speed line as I suggested. Just curious, do you plan on staying in on this trade? If you're stop is less than 1.1561, you should be alright; that just seems to be a big area of support.


DemonTaz,

I'm unfamiliar with NZD/USD, but you're stop seems small; are you using the ATR?

Quote
That looks like a Mac graphic!!

Indeed it is my friend; Indeed it is...


ALSO,

I have found my intraday system. And alas, it was not even my idea. It is new to me to use other people's methods, but I really like Spudfyre's method.
Why it is good:

T/P generally 20, but if it looks good enough could be much more.

Trades are quick and easy; I made 20 pips last night in 2 hours. It should have been 33ish pips if I were following the rules better.

YOU ONLY HAVE TO READ 3 THREAD PAGES to learn it!! This is definitely my favorite part

Spudfyre clearly defines his rules, with very little gray area. I highly recommend giving his thread a read; it's worth it.

Anyway, here's the link if you haven't looked it over:

http://forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=22105

Best of luck,

Kevin
  • #244
  • Mar 29, 2007 9:29am Mar 29, 2007 9:29am
Quoting kharvell

DemonTaz,

I'm unfamiliar with NZD/USD, but you're stop seems small; are you using the ATR?

Hi Kevin,

Yes I did, but on looking at normal price action today, I have increased to above the Weekly Fib resistance 2 just in case.
  • #245
  • Mar 29, 2007 6:17pm Mar 29, 2007 6:17pm
New Trade:

NZD/USD Short @ .7155
As I mentioned yesterday, I don't usually trade this pair, but there's a Short signal per Kevin's method plus a potential head and shoulders on a 240-min. chart. In addition, there's divergence on MACD and Momentum indicators, which is typical of a H&S pattern.

The Short signal was actually triggered on the 28th, but I didn't want to take this trade unless I could get it at a better price, which became available today. My stop is 20 pips above the 3/27 high, with a target of .7004.

Current Trade:

3/22 GBP/USD Short +14
This trade is now one week old, with no sign of direction yet. This pair had a range of 44 pips yesterday on my charts, which is just unheard of, so the breakout should be exciting when it finally comes.

Closed Trade:

GBP/JPY Short +75
Here's my "dumb trade" confession. I was up over 250 pips on this trade at one point. When it started to retrace, I did an absolute no-no and moved my stop loss thinking I could outwit the market and be in great position if it headed down again. Obviously, it didn't and I finally ended the trade. It was a win, but not nearly as profitable as it should have been.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #246
  • Mar 30, 2007 2:52am Mar 30, 2007 2:52am
Thanks for the heads up on Spuds Method. It looks really interesting. I love his advice about learning about and getting to know the stochastic by actually "practicing" by watching it. The method looks very effective. Good choice Kevin. I think I'll join you on this one. It probably can be applied when ever you have a spare couple of hours to watch the charts.
  • #247
  • Mar 30, 2007 3:30am Mar 30, 2007 3:30am
Hi all,

A quick update

NZDUSD:

I'm still short but I got in before it went higher so my entry was really bad (0.7107). I took Kevin's advice and raised my stop to the next weekly fib which was 0.7200, so at least it still has a chance to bring home the bacon.

Gold:

This trade was pretty cool, got my entry short at 665.8 and managed a low around 655'ish but then retraced somewhat. SMA is around 652 so that is still my target.

Lets hope USD is bullish today so we can reap the rewards
  • #248
  • Mar 30, 2007 8:34am Mar 30, 2007 8:34am
Kevin, if this kind of thing is cluttering up your journal, let me know. I will stop.

Check this short term strategy out if you haven't already. This seems uncanny if it works. I think I'll try this out with small money. I'll let you know how it works, that is if I can find some screen time.

Have a good weekend!!

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=22680
  • #249
  • Apr 3, 2007 7:31pm Apr 3, 2007 7:31pm
New Trades:

AUD/USD Short @ .8085 SL .8185
My trade signal actually came in at about .8130, but I got home late today, so I'm starting 45 pips late, but I think this trade still has plenty of potential. First target is .8000, but 50% retracement would give a target of .7930, which coincides with previous resistance, so that will be my second target.

NZD/USD Short @ .7193 SL .7273
I was stopped out on my previous short with this pair because I used a fairly tight stop loss and ended up being stopped out by 5 pips. There still looks to be great downside potential, so I'm back in with a new Short trade. This pair is showing a potential Head & Shoulders on the Weekly chart. As a general rule, the higher time frame the chart, the larger the move, so this could be a significant move if it plays out. With that in mind, I'm not setting a target price on this trade . . . I'll just see how it goes.

GBP/USD Short @ 1.9742 SL 1.9842
This is the trade in which I have the least confidence, because there may be a lot of action in pushing the pair toward 2.0000, but a Short signal is showing on my charts, so I'll stick with the system. This is another trade that I was stopped out on for a 100 pip loss, so hopefully Round 2 goes in my favor. Target price is 1.9543.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #250
  • Apr 3, 2007 9:13pm Apr 3, 2007 9:13pm
Quoting yen44x
New Trades:

AUD/USD Short @ .8085 SL .8185
My trade signal actually came in at about .8130, but I got home late today, so I'm starting 45 pips late, but I think this trade still has plenty of potential. First target is .8000, but 50% retracement would give a target of .7930, which coincides with previous resistance, so that will be my second target.

NZD/USD Short @ .7193 SL .7273
I was stopped out on my previous short with this pair because I used a fairly tight stop loss and ended up being stopped out by 5 pips. There still looks to be great downside potential, so I'm back in with a new Short trade. This pair is showing a potential Head & Shoulders on the Weekly chart. As a general rule, the higher time frame the chart, the larger the move, so this could be a significant move if it plays out. With that in mind, I'm not setting a target price on this trade . . . I'll just see how it goes.

GBP/USD Short @ 1.9742 SL 1.9842
This is the trade in which I have the least confidence, because there may be a lot of action in pushing the pair toward 2.0000, but a Short signal is showing on my charts, so I'll stick with the system. This is another trade that I was stopped out on for a 100 pip loss, so hopefully Round 2 goes in my favor. Target price is 1.9543.
How long do you think before the AUD/USD hits .8000
  • #251
  • Apr 3, 2007 11:07pm Apr 3, 2007 11:07pm
Quoting Big P
How long do you think before the AUD/USD hits .8000
This could take tomorrow or 3 days; which if you are using my method, your T/P will be tightening the longer it goes. And there's always the possibility of a loser


And I also got stopped out of GBP/USD pretty big.. I lost 10% to be exact. I am now at -8% from where I started. Max drawdown is -18% so I'm not too worried yet. I have decided to create a sub account that will accurately document the results. I put $2000 in it to see what happens to the account balance. I will keep you guys updated. I will just say that I am at -8% now though to begin with.

No signals lately, so I've just been trying my intraday tactics

Best of luck,

Kevin
  • #252
  • Apr 4, 2007 12:03am Apr 4, 2007 12:03am
Quoting Big P
How long do you think before the AUD/USD hits .8000
That's guesswork at best. As Kevin mentioned, this could turn out to be a losing trade. The climb from .8000 to the high of .8183 on 4/2 took two weeks, and then it took just a day and a half to drop all the way back to .8068 earlier today before retracing.

If AUD/USD continues down, .8000 should be a fairly conservative target. Momentum is diverging on both the Daily and 240 charts, which supports a Short trade. On the other hand, it's quite possible that this pair may retrace and challenge the 4/2 high again before anything decisive happens.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #253
  • Apr 4, 2007 2:47am Apr 4, 2007 2:47am
last night the interest rates were not hiked, the expectations were 50:50, that caused the drop.
Now the outlook is very likely that Australia will hike rates next month, so a continous adoption of this expectation in the market could cause a move up so the probable rate hike would be priced in by then.


Quoting yen44x
That's guesswork at best. As Kevin mentioned, this could turn out to be a losing trade. The climb from .8000 to the high of .8183 on 4/2 took two weeks, and then it took just a day and a half to drop all the way back to .8068 earlier today before retracing.

If AUD/USD continues down, .8000 should be a fairly conservative target. Momentum is diverging on both the Daily and 240 charts, which supports a Short trade. On the other hand, it's quite possible that this pair may retrace and challenge the 4/2 high again before anything decisive happens.
  • #254
  • Apr 4, 2007 2:52pm Apr 4, 2007 2:52pm
nice 60 pips from time of the post..i love fundamentals...



Quoting Peter Pan
last night the interest rates were not hiked, the expectations were 50:50, that caused the drop.
Now the outlook is very likely that Australia will hike rates next month, so a continous adoption of this expectation in the market could cause a move up so the probable rate hike would be priced in by then.
  • #255
  • Apr 4, 2007 11:09pm Apr 4, 2007 11:09pm
Alright guys,

Finally, I have got a long-term signal. I am really enjoying the prospect of having 2 accounts; one for long-term and the other for short term.

Long USD/JPY @ 118.735
S/L = 117.250
T/P = ????

Best of luck,

Kevin
  • #256
  • Apr 5, 2007 6:01am Apr 5, 2007 6:01am
Is it me or is everyone else getting there ass handed to them lately using BB?

Yes, yes, I know there will be loosing streaks...I just have to trust the system and pull the trigger on the signals.

  • #257
  • Apr 5, 2007 8:27am Apr 5, 2007 8:27am
Quoting lholcomb
Is it me or is everyone else getting there ass handed to them lately using BB?

Yes, yes, I know there will be loosing streaks...I just have to trust the system and pull the trigger on the signals.

I agree that April has not gotten off to a great start. I've done better my trying to limit myself to a few pairs rather than trading across the board, although I broke my usual pattern by trading AUD/USD and NZD/USD earlier in the week. So far, that has not been a good decision, as I'm getting thumped on both trades so far.

In deciding which pairs to use, I did a lot of back testing and found that, in general, the results in 2006 were much better than the first few months of 2007. Over the course of a year, though, the BB Method did extremely well, so my hope is that the lack of winning trades lately is just an aberration.

Despite that negativity, my account in March grew by about 4% using the BB Method. That's certainly not earth-shattering, but it beats what the banks pay in interest. Now if I can just keep from giving it all back in April.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #258
  • Apr 5, 2007 8:49am Apr 5, 2007 8:49am
Quoting lholcomb
Is it me or is everyone else getting there ass handed to them lately using BB?

Yes, yes, I know there will be loosing streaks...I just have to trust the system and pull the trigger on the signals.

Hey guys,

I can tell the morale is low around here. This will be either good or bad news: spring season in general is a bad season for forex using my method, and in particular April. Rest assured, I have backtested the living daylights out of MANY pairs, and they all come out profitable, but with varying degrees of profitability. My maximum drawdown statistic that I always pull out, was actually accumulated near the beginning of April. This number is -18% and it is only on THREE pairs. I am almost inclined to suggest that you trade maybe less pairs during this month, or decrease risk. On the same token, however, you may miss big profit opportunities.

With this being said, I'm expecting the worst in the next month especially, but why get my hopes up beyond that. It may be a good idea to decrease risk at least during April, but who knows, it may turn out to be the best month ever.

The bottom line is that we are going to lose no matter what, and the true test of a trader is handling your losses and maintaining what works. Was there any doubt when we were getting 500 pips per week? And just the same, there should be no doubt that we could lose 500 pips a week. If you keep your risk minimal, at the end, all our worries are trivial.

Keep those chins up! From the looks of backtests, after the beginning of April we will be fine (15th or so).

Kevin
  • #259
  • Apr 5, 2007 8:55am Apr 5, 2007 8:55am
Kevin,

Very well stated. Any trading method goes through peaks and valleys. The beauty of the BB Method to me remains its simplicity, which allows a trader to make a rational decision once a day and then carry on with your life.

Imagine the frustration of going through a bad period if you're trying to scalp the market using 1-minute charts or whatever. Pure misery in my opinion.

I'll stick with the BB Method . . . thank you very much.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #260
  • Apr 5, 2007 10:07am Apr 5, 2007 10:07am
Kevin,

The last two days have been good for me with your method. Trades entered....

sell GBP on Tuesday
sell CHF on Wednesday
buy eurgbp on Wednesday

All have hit the targets I set and made money.

The one blasted whipsawing punky pair is the CAD....it is in the negative...last couple of signals for the CAD for me have not worked out.

Thanks for your words and Yen's words above.

BP
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