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  • #71,261
  • Mar 4, 2009 2:29pm Mar 4, 2009 2:29pm
Quoting psiholog
it does look like we are developing an inverted h&s on the hourly charts as chart will show. If it does play out upwards targets are of 1.2870 (distance of tip of head to neckline). HOWEVER...the ecb is expected to cut rates in less then 24 hours so any longs off these levels should be well monitored. strong support is again 1.2565 and strong resistance is again 1.2625 with a congestion area in between 1.2625 and 1.2675 with very strong resistance at around the 1.2700 level.

Attachment
looks like it may just play out after all..neckline could be up to 1.2655 ..all based on interpretation really. If we hang around this level for the next 30minutes with no decisive break of the current range (close of us session)..i may short myself...to be seen
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #71,262
  • Mar 4, 2009 2:43pm Mar 4, 2009 2:43pm
Quoting psiholog
looks like it may just play out after all..neckline could be up to 1.2655 ..all based on interpretation really. If we hang around this level for the next 30minutes with no decisive break of the current range (close of us session)..i may short myself...to be seen
i agree 90%!
  • #71,263
  • Mar 4, 2009 2:51pm Mar 4, 2009 2:51pm
Question: It looks like a very interesting news day tomorrow with the ECB press conference and the US unemployment claims happening at the same time (7:30am CT). Could this shoot the E/U up like a rocket then down like a stone in the blink of an eye?

I'm not sure how to set up for this one?
  • #71,264
  • Mar 4, 2009 2:59pm Mar 4, 2009 2:59pm
currently struggling to hold break above 1.2650. this rally have been very strong today. i think the bulls are strong on steroids... but running out of steam.

looks like if we close the hour below 1.2650 we might create today high here before a correction toward 1.2500 occur to test that level for support.

if not the only way i will change my Bias on the pair is if we break above 1.2700.

by the way we are at the top of channel on the 1H.
DISCIPLINE IS THE KEY TO SUCCESS!!!:nerd:
  • #71,265
  • Mar 4, 2009 3:03pm Mar 4, 2009 3:03pm
interesting hourly candle close..not much to add to my previous post other then i have gone short with half a position size (dont feel quite confident that the bull run is over yet and the triple swap common to wednesdays hurts). Stop loss 50pips, take profit target is 1.2565 but will be looking carefully at how pa behaves around 1.2625..there is a good chance it may have become strong support...to be seen

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Sidenote: this trade if it does move towards my take profit level should take at least 5-6hours to complete as this is an hourly potential inverted h&s
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #71,266
  • Mar 4, 2009 3:12pm Mar 4, 2009 3:12pm
Quoting d-e-f
Question: It looks like a very interesting news day tomorrow with the ECB press conference and the US unemployment claims happening at the same time (7:30am CT). Could this shoot the E/U up like a rocket then down like a stone in the blink of an eye?

I'm not sure how to set up for this one?
my opinion on this is treat this market as it is...a scalping range that has gotten just a bit bigger with the new low made yesterday. stick to your strategy and look for entries/exits only according to your strategy but keeping in the back of your mind the news to come. As to how the news will influence markets from now until time of release and the reaction to the release it is anyone's guess. As examples...the last time Trichet raised rates for the eurozone was back at 1.6 and the reaction to him doing so was a 200pip drop (usd got stronger) as it was not the actual rate decision but what he said that market makers took into account (he said something along the lines of we wont be raising rates in the near future anymore and blah blah blah). We have seen the dollar lose 2000pips in december and it can be linked most to the feds cutting rates pretty much to zero (how often does that happen right). To conclude...stick to your strategy for trades until the announcements come and best to be flat once the news comes out..its really a gamble either way the market goes. In time maybe you will be able to trade news but for now...I dont recommend it.
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #71,267
  • Mar 4, 2009 3:21pm Mar 4, 2009 3:21pm
support at 1.2633 is not letting the prices pass by...

and the top of the channel looks like is holding.
DISCIPLINE IS THE KEY TO SUCCESS!!!:nerd:
  • #71,268
  • Mar 4, 2009 3:35pm Mar 4, 2009 3:35pm
Getting pretty close to the high of the week.
  • #71,269
  • Mar 4, 2009 3:39pm Mar 4, 2009 3:39pm
Its all over this will be 1.61 by weeks end

The dollar tanked today and dollar longs were on TV talking up the $$ because they are over invested. Just like oil longers were talking up oil at $145 saying it was going to 250 but theie eyes said oh @$#$ I stuck my cliets in over $125
+ Charts Happen
  • #71,270
  • Mar 4, 2009 3:44pm Mar 4, 2009 3:44pm
Quoting Passholder
Its all over this will be 1.61 by weeks end

The dollar tanked today and dollar longs were on TV talking up the $$ because they are over invested. Just like oil longers were talking up oil at $145 saying it was going to 250 but theie eyes said oh @$#$ I stuck my cliets in over $125
So you believe that there will be a 3500 pip swing in the Euro's favor? Or was that a typo?
  • #71,271
  • Mar 4, 2009 3:56pm Mar 4, 2009 3:56pm
Quoting Doniboy
So you believe that there will be a 3500 pip swing in the Euro's favor? Or was that a typo?
I'm going to say sarcasm. I don't believe this rally, still short from 1.2650.
  • #71,272
  • Mar 4, 2009 3:59pm Mar 4, 2009 3:59pm
Good morning everybody,
lost yesterday some pips ooh well at least I kept to my trading plan.
Seems as if we are nearly on the top end of the range.


Hey psi thanks for those charts before they are always giving a good picture.

I will be looking at a long position if 1.2680 breaks, otherwise I am still biased short.

Read somewhere a good quote: Stock market postmortems don't pay dividend's.
As to this I will look forward to todays trading session.
Trade on your own risk Plan your trade&trade your plan dont be a
  • #71,273
  • Mar 4, 2009 3:59pm Mar 4, 2009 3:59pm
Quoting Passholder
Its all over this will be 1.61 by weeks end

The dollar tanked today and dollar longs were on TV talking up the $$ because they are over invested. Just like oil longers were talking up oil at $145 saying it was going to 250 but theie eyes said oh @$#$ I stuck my cliets in over $125
I saw that, they were saying US will be first to come out of ressession, when that was last months line of crap. We all know China is running the show....loving this action.

The daily divergence is still in tact.
  • #71,274
  • Mar 4, 2009 4:06pm Mar 4, 2009 4:06pm
Quoting Passholder
Its all over this will be 1.61 by weeks end

The dollar tanked today and dollar longs were on TV talking up the $$ because they are over invested. Just like oil longers were talking up oil at $145 saying it was going to 250 but theie eyes said oh @$#$ I stuck my cliets in over $125
The dollar tanked today? lol, hmm, and what exactly are you looking at.
  • #71,275
  • Mar 4, 2009 4:13pm Mar 4, 2009 4:13pm
Quoting psiholog
my opinion on this is treat this market as it is...a scalping range that has gotten just a bit bigger with the new low made yesterday. stick to your strategy and look for entries/exits only according to your strategy but keeping in the back of your mind the news to come. As to how the news will influence markets from now until time of release and the reaction to the release it is anyone's guess. As examples...the last time Trichet raised rates for the eurozone was back at 1.6 and the reaction to him doing so was a 200pip drop (usd got stronger)...
Thanks PSI. You're right about trading the news; I have been burnt before.
  • #71,276
  • Mar 4, 2009 4:17pm Mar 4, 2009 4:17pm
Quoting forextine
The dollar tanked today? lol, hmm, and what exactly are you looking at.
This is true, the dollar is still 20 pips lower than it was at open on Monday. That may not remain the case for long, but for right now the dollar is up on the week and that is following news that Nonfarm private employment decreased 697,000 from January 2009 to February 2009, up from the estimate of 630,000.
  • #71,277
  • Mar 4, 2009 4:20pm Mar 4, 2009 4:20pm
Here is something to get relaxed:
http://www.smog.pl/wideo/24494/chcia...enia_na_wf_ie/

I wish i had so much fun at my high school
  • #71,278
  • Mar 4, 2009 4:35pm Mar 4, 2009 4:35pm
Quoting dstryr
Anyone else ever have one of those days that everytime they think of a trade.....they should place the opposite? =x. Maybe tomorrow will be better.
We've all been there. Here is what you do.

First thing is stop over trading.

Do not listen to anyone's opinion on the board when you want to trade. Including the best traders. They are wrong from time to time as well.

Look at the H4 and H1 to see the direction. Trade only in that direction. Even if you have a wrong entry point price will come back and save you. I heard it hear all day long people looking for shorting Eur on this board. Why? No logical reason what so ever. It was obvious for the US Markets to Follow the European Markets and Eur has been trading with S&P all alone.

If you only follow Support, Resistance, Fib levels and the direction of the market I can assure you you'll make money.

Keep it simple and clean up your charts. Almost all of the indicators, oscillators are good historicals.

Here is the link to one of the best reading materials of any forums. It will open your eyes like it did mine.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=27286
  • #71,279
  • Edited 4:49pm Mar 4, 2009 4:48pm | Edited 4:49pm
no logical reason to short euro?--euro will be coming up againt a good s/r zone at 1.2675/80 level that has been both support and resistance. last touch of that level price fell over 200 pips. That level shows across 4 hr, 1 hr , 30 min ect. so if you want to short then that is a logical area to do so.
  • #71,280
  • Mar 4, 2009 4:51pm Mar 4, 2009 4:51pm
Quoting Levent
We've all been there. Here is what you do.

First thing is stop over trading.

Do not listen to anyone's opinion on the board when you want to trade. Including the best traders. They are wrong from time to time as well.

Look at the H4 and H1 to see the direction. Trade only in that direction. Even if you have a wrong entry point price will come back and save you. I heard it hear all day long people looking for shorting Eur on this board. Why? No logical reason what so ever. It was obvious for the US Markets to Follow the European Markets and...
Good advice. My biggest losses always happen when I am in opposition of the trend: trying to pick a top or bottom (why do I do it?) Of course following the H4 requires that you have enough margin to cover the fluctuations, which seem to be high on Eur/USD .

P.S. my charts still show EUR/USD in a downtrend, did we hit bottom ????? Who knows.
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