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  • #71,181
  • Mar 4, 2009 11:32am Mar 4, 2009 11:32am
i have a question for all those shorting right now. now we know the range was 1.2625 to 1.2565 until the strong support around 1.2565 was broken to the downside. just like any breakout goes a retest almost always follows. we saw that retest a few hours ago and not only that...1.2565 did not become strong resistance as a real breakout would indicate. not only that...we have reached the high end of the previous range at 1.2625 in a relatively short amount of time after breaking 1.2565 again. so the question is...why risk going short at this particular time when we have seen such a strong bull move totalling almost 200pips. Clearly there has to be a reason for it...fundamentals or not or pa would have reversed already if this was a temporary retracement. THe psychology of the markets is telling me right now...careful..dont do anything...trying to pick tops at this time is really a gamble. Correct me if im wrong but I just dont see any reason to go short at least until a period of consolidation and possibly until the end of us session

Sidenote:constructive criticism meant to challenge the minds...thats all this is..make you really think about what your doing haha
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #71,182
  • Mar 4, 2009 11:33am Mar 4, 2009 11:33am
i'm still holding onto my shorts.
  • #71,183
  • Mar 4, 2009 11:34am Mar 4, 2009 11:34am
So this suspected ECB rate cut would strengthen the dollar? Someone said earlier it would weaken it. Any info would help.
  • #71,184
  • Mar 4, 2009 11:37am Mar 4, 2009 11:37am
Quoting psiholog
i have a question for all those shorting right now. ....... I just dont see any reason to go short at least until a period of consolidation and possibly until the end of us session

Sidenote:constructive criticism meant to challenge the minds...thats all this is..make you really think about what your doing haha
you were right.
  • #71,185
  • Mar 4, 2009 11:38am Mar 4, 2009 11:38am
consider the channel broken.
  • #71,186
  • Mar 4, 2009 11:38am Mar 4, 2009 11:38am
Quoting psiholog

Sidenote:constructive criticism meant to challenge the minds...thats all this is..make you really think about what your doing haha
Maybe I had my head in the clouds on this one, but I did pick 2625-2635 as a reentry point.

I guess I should have been paying closer attention to PA. But for me this trade was a low risk reward trade with a small SL (hit already) and a larger profit target.

I do expect to see this pair rise up if the 1hr and 4hr both close above 2625.
  • #71,187
  • Mar 4, 2009 11:42am Mar 4, 2009 11:42am
I'm already short as well. Havent averaged down or gone short again just under water at this point.

I said two hours ago, throw away all yoru FX charts right now, its all about equities. The FX charts will print whatever they print for now.

I think there is a small possibilty that stocks close RED today.
+ Charts Happen
  • #71,188
  • Mar 4, 2009 11:43am Mar 4, 2009 11:43am
Quoting Byrd
So this suspected ECB rate cut would strengthen the dollar? Someone said earlier it would weaken it. Any info would help.
IF you see what happend with GBP before rate cut you will understand what will hapen with EU. GBP was at 1.4600 when to 1.5330 . to finish after the rate cut at 1.3505 . So i think we will see a big fall soon. probable 400 pips
  • #71,189
  • Mar 4, 2009 11:43am Mar 4, 2009 11:43am
Quoting psiholog
i have a question for all those shorting right now. now we know the range was 1.2625 to 1.2565 until the strong support around 1.2565 was broken to the downside. just like any breakout goes a retest almost always follows. we saw that retest a few hours ago and not only that...1.2565 did not become strong resistance as a real breakout would indicate. not only that...we have reached the high end of the previous range at 1.2625 in a relatively short amount of time after breaking 1.2565 again. so the question is...why risk going short at this particular...

Excellent post.

Personally, I'm just not buying this sudden run up. I also am very skeptical about it occuring right before a rate cut planned for tomorrow. Ever heard of pump and dump? Does that apply to forex? I'm not sure... but if there is to be a drop tomorrow, somebody would benefit even more if there was a big head fake to the upside a little while before it happens, no?
  • #71,190
  • Mar 4, 2009 11:43am Mar 4, 2009 11:43am
Quoting GrnEydGuy
Maybe I had my head in the clouds on this one, but I did pick 2525-2535 as a reentry point.

I guess I should have been paying closer attention to PA. But for me this trade was a low risk reward trade with a small SL (hit already) and a larger profit target.

I do expect to see this pair rise up if the 1hr and 4hr both close above 2525.
Do you mean 2625 ?? I would think the hourly has a pretty decent chance of closing above 2525
+ Charts Happen
  • #71,191
  • Mar 4, 2009 11:44am Mar 4, 2009 11:44am
i think i'm done for the day, i just lost too much money. 4 consecutive losing trades.
  • #71,192
  • Mar 4, 2009 11:44am Mar 4, 2009 11:44am
Quoting Terminale
IF you see what happend with GBP before rate cut you will understand what will hapen with EU. GBP was at 1.4600 when to 1.5330 . to finish after the rate cut at 1.3505 . So i think we will see a big fall soon. probable 400 pips
Thanks! I'm also holding onto my short at 1.26. I'll avg down at 1.27 if we get there.
  • #71,193
  • Mar 4, 2009 11:46am Mar 4, 2009 11:46am
Quoting Passholder
Do you mean 2625 ?? I would think the hourly has a pretty decent chance of closing above 2525

LOL ahhh yeah thanks for the correction.
  • #71,194
  • Mar 4, 2009 11:50am Mar 4, 2009 11:50am
Quoting F.x.
Excellent post.

Personally, I'm just not buying this sudden run up. I also am very skeptical about it occuring right before a rate cut planned for tomorrow. Ever heard of pump and dump? Does that apply to forex? I'm not sure... but if there is to be a drop tomorrow, somebody would benefit even more if there was a big head fake to the upside a little while before it happens, no?

honestly that is what im expecting to happen as well. push pa as high as possible in anticipation for the big drop to come. the classic buy the rumor and sell the news. the only problem is determining how high are market makers willing to push pa and we probably wont have a clear answer to this until at least the end of the us session.
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #71,195
  • Mar 4, 2009 11:50am Mar 4, 2009 11:50am
well, maybe the channel isn't broken, it's still basically never broke it. i think the channel is stiil good though.
  • #71,196
  • Mar 4, 2009 11:53am Mar 4, 2009 11:53am
Every analyst is saying that a probable 50pt rate cut by the ECB tomorrow is already priced in EurUsd...

As i never trade expectations, i do however believe that since it is expected by the majority, won't have much influence on this pair... (Unless the rate cut is way of the predictions (big surprise would be no cut at all))
Past occurences had more impact, but now every investor is expecting the worse, so nothing new there.

What is having major impact in this pair has been risk aversion, so if equities start to recover it will follow to the upside.

Now who believes that we already reached this whole crysis bottom!? I don't...
Traders are smartasses
  • #71,197
  • Mar 4, 2009 11:54am Mar 4, 2009 11:54am
Quoting psiholog
honestly that is what im expecting to happen as well. push pa as high as possible in anticipation for the big drop to come. the classic buy the rumor and sell the news. the only problem is determining how high are market makers willing to push pa and we probably wont have a clear answer to this until at least the end of the us session.

I think we just saw how high it's willing to go. 2640 looks like the top and it could turn into a nice spike high on the 1H charts.
  • #71,198
  • Mar 4, 2009 11:58am Mar 4, 2009 11:58am
i think i might be willing to bet it will push up once again here.
  • #71,199
  • Mar 4, 2009 11:58am Mar 4, 2009 11:58am
here we go - perhaps the move down for the rest of the day has begun....


by the way - does anyone know which indicator can tell me what the volume is on a currency pair?
  • #71,200
  • Mar 4, 2009 12:02pm Mar 4, 2009 12:02pm
Quoting psiholog
honestly that is what im expecting to happen as well. push pa as high as possible in anticipation for the big drop to come. the classic buy the rumor and sell the news. the only problem is determining how high are market makers willing to push pa and we probably wont have a clear answer to this until at least the end of the us session.
Nice to know I'm not alone in that thought.

You're right, we could still see some upward movement. But I'm going to hold my short positions from here, as I'm still seeking 1.23 for the next move down. As always proper MM is key...
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