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Psych Levels, Pivots, and Trendlines - Resurrected

  • #1,981
  • Mar 4, 2009 3:58am Mar 4, 2009 3:58am
OK - normality restored!

The higher low an hour before FO was a clear buy as price held at the 4000 level and this was confirmed early in Frankies Hour when the small pull back from the 025 level held around the aqua ema.

The 075 level held the rally and the pullback to the 025 area gave another buy opportunity and whilst this did make a higher high, it was only by 9 pips - not at all convincing, setting up a sell off the lower high 5 candles later for the 50 pip drop back once more to the 025 level.

Now I've taken another sell as the 9:30 news candle again failed at the 075 level....I'm hoping that this will give a stronger push down to break the 025 support and retest the earlier lows....TWT
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #1,982
  • Mar 4, 2009 5:19am Mar 4, 2009 5:19am
Quoting Islander
OK - normality restored!

The higher low an hour before FO was a clear buy as price held at the 4000 level and this was confirmed early in Frankies Hour when the small pull back from the 025 level held around the aqua ema.

The 075 level held the rally and the pullback to the 025 area gave another buy opportunity and whilst this did make a higher high, it was only by 9 pips - not at all convincing, setting up a sell off the lower high 5 candles later for the 50 pip drop back once more to the 025 level.

Now I've taken another sell as the...
Nice analysis, me old mate, and so easy to follow with a comprehensive chart display. I've posted a chart to demonstrate how price is having a job pushing up much further. As I type this, price is being rejected by a confluence of the 1.4100 psych-line, the M3 line at 1.4102, and an hourly TL that stems from Feb.25th. With that slope and the MA's moving up, one has the feeling that something's got to give. As you say, TWT.....
Attached Image
  • #1,983
  • Mar 4, 2009 5:50am Mar 4, 2009 5:50am
Quoting eyevoltage
Nice analysis, me old mate, and so easy to follow with a comprehensive chart display. I've posted a chart to demonstrate how price is having a job pushing up much further. As I type this, price is being rejected by a confluence of the 1.4100 psych-line, the M3 line at 1.4102, and an hourly TL that stems from Feb.25th. With that slope and the MA's moving up, one has the feeling that something's got to give. As you say, TWT.....
GM EV - well my last trade was a wash as cable bounced up off the 050 area - but we agree that its really making heavy weather of this rally.

Currently its stalled at the MR1 level of 4114 and I've taken a small sell as it looks as if its third attempt has failed. First target is the earlier high at 4085 - now also the hourly 50 ema.....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #1,984
  • Mar 4, 2009 6:08am Mar 4, 2009 6:08am
Quoting Islander
GM EV - well my last trade was a wash as cable bounced up off the 050 area - but we agree that its really making heavy weather of this rally.

Currently its stalled at the MR1 level of 4114 and I've taken a small sell as it looks as if its third attempt has failed. First target is the earlier high at 4085 - now also the hourly 50 ema.....

Busted my first target and hit my second at the 075 level so I exited and will now wait to see how far it bounces.....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #1,985
  • Mar 4, 2009 9:28am Mar 4, 2009 9:28am
Whilst I dont often post my longer term charts I do check my hourly chart a couple of times a day and my daily every weekend.

I'm a long term fan of Tom Williams of VSA fame and I like keeping S & R areas on my charts - and I now use the 50 and 100 levels as bounderies for my S&R zones.

Here the red resistance zone first acted as support some weeks ago and now its resistance. The green support zone has only become active this week.

I have taken several short entries off my 5 min chart as price has found it difficult to penetrate this resistance zone - I'm short again now.....
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #1,986
  • Mar 4, 2009 9:38am Mar 4, 2009 9:38am
Same S&R zones, todays trend channel added.....
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #1,987
  • Mar 5, 2009 2:24am Mar 5, 2009 2:24am
GM all.

The Asian low came in an hour before FO and the retest 4 candles later off the 4125 level was a clear buy signal, with confirmation as price broke up thru the aqua ema and the 150 level.

Price ran on up to yesterdays high just under the 4200 level for a nice 50 or so pips profit.

The lower high towards the end of Frankies Hour was an invitation to sell - which I did

Now we wait to see what The Brits do. Effectively we have a decision zone bounded by the 50 and 75 levels - a clear break up and we'll retest the 4200 area. A break out below the 50 level and we'll retest the 25 level.

The hourly MAs have now reversed to long, with is a positive sign. However, the candles up to todays high on both the 5m, 15 and 30min charts were on high volume with long up-side wicks which indicates that sellers were active.

We have the BOE rates announcement later this morning, with a further 0.5% cut anticipated.
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #1,988
  • Mar 5, 2009 2:42am Mar 5, 2009 2:42am
My short trade was a wash as The Brits pushed cable up hard. I took a buy as price exploded up out of decision zone and I exited at the 4225 level, where I also went short.

This could be a Big Ben fake-out move that has allowed the professionals to get short around the 4200 level - I'll be adding to my shorts once I'm convinced that this is the case.....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #1,989
  • Mar 5, 2009 2:59am Mar 5, 2009 2:59am
Quoting Islander

This could be a Big Ben fake-out move .....
Excellent analysis as usual, mate. I'm trying to recall what a Big Ben is, but my little grey cells won't respond too well this time of the morn. Can you flesh it out for me, mate, if you don't mind?
  • #1,990
  • Mar 5, 2009 3:21am Mar 5, 2009 3:21am
Quoting eyevoltage
Excellent analysis as usual, mate. I'm trying to recall what a Big Ben is, but my little grey cells won't respond too well this time of the morn. Can you flesh it out for me, mate, if you don't mind?

I'll have a look for the pdf file that I have somewhere - but briefly its a trading strategy that looks for the early action after LO to be a fake-out move by the professionals who are looking to push the market up / down thru a resistance / support area thus triggering stops which they happily take as they set up themselves to trade in the opposite direction.

Here - IF I'm correct, they are distributing (exiting) their longs that they picked up at a lower level - I guess in the 3950/4000 area over the last three days and also accumulating new shorts for a push back down.....TWT
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #1,991
  • Mar 5, 2009 3:25am Mar 5, 2009 3:25am
Quoting Islander
I'll have a look for the pdf file that I have somewhere - but briefly its a trading strategy that looks for the early action after LO to be a fake-out move by the professionals who are looking to push the market up / down thru a resistance / support area thus triggering stops which they happily take as they set up themselves to trade in the opposite direction.

Here - IF I'm correct, they are distributing (exiting) their longs that they picked up at a lower level - I guess in the 3950/4000 area over the last three days and also accumulating...
Thanks a lot, mate. Much appreciated.
  • #1,992
  • Edited 3:48am Mar 5, 2009 3:28am | Edited 3:48am
Found them on my laptop.....its been a couple of years since I looked at these, so I hope that my precis was right....http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon11.gif

LOL - sorry, they're both the same....
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Big Ben.pdf   597 KB | 736 downloads
File Type: pdf Big Ben FX strtgy.pdf   597 KB | 894 downloads
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #1,993
  • Mar 5, 2009 3:33am Mar 5, 2009 3:33am
Duly downloaded, and I'll have a look at them later.
Cheers, mate.
  • #1,994
  • Mar 5, 2009 4:09am Mar 5, 2009 4:09am
Quoting Islander
My short trade was a wash as The Brits pushed cable up hard. I took a buy as price exploded up out of decision zone and I exited at the 4225 level, where I also went short.

This could be a Big Ben fake-out move that has allowed the professionals to get short around the 4200 level - I'll be adding to my shorts once I'm convinced that this is the case.....

That was a nice drop down to 125 support area. As the DP is just a few pips under this area I had my TP set for 100 pips and got hit by 1 pip and will look to re-enter after the expected bounce - towards the 175 level would be nice - but probably ambitious - time for a coffee break.....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #1,995
  • Mar 5, 2009 4:35am Mar 5, 2009 4:35am
Quoting Islander
That was a nice drop down to 125 support area. As the DP is just a few pips under this area I had my TP set for 100 pips and got hit by 1 pip and will look to re-enter after the expected bounce - towards the 175 level would be nice - but probably ambitious - time for a coffee break.....
Ambitious or not, mate, you made it! Nice trading.
  • #1,996
  • Mar 5, 2009 5:09am Mar 5, 2009 5:09am
Quoting eyevoltage
Ambitious or not, mate, you made it! Nice trading.
Thanks - I'll probably close this latest short before the BOE news due in an hour. The broker that I've got this trade on with likes to widen their spreads before big news announcements and also go into "requote" mode, so its best to be flat.
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #1,997
  • Mar 5, 2009 5:18am Mar 5, 2009 5:18am
Hi EV, Islander, Acumen (and everyone else who continues to contribute to this thread!),

I just wanted to pop in to say hello and thanks for this great thread. In the past I have always stuck to higher timeframes but this thread has seriously opened my eyes to the lower timeframe possibilities. I’m still learning of course, but I particularly like the use of price action patterns in conjunction with the psych levels. I have always been interested in the way price interacts with these levels, although in the past I have only really studied the xx00 and xx50 lines. I have looked at trading bounces, breakouts etc of these lines but nothing really seemed to work until I took note of this thread.

EV – I have found your knowledge of candlestick patterns to be extremely useful and I attach below two very nice trades I took this morning using this technique (still a beginner so it might not be perfect, but they ended very nicely!).

The attached trades…

GBP/USD Sell: The first candlestick noted by the red down arrow gave me a downward bias (I believe it was a pin-bar of sorts that pierced the 1.4200 line). The next candle broke below so I took a sell with S/L above the candle (17 pips away). Price shot down nicely and broke 1.4150. I moved my stop to 1.4150 which was +43 pips and this closed my trade as price moved back up through it. Certainly can’t complain at that!

EUR/USD Sell: I’m not sure you guys use this pattern much but I’ve studied it a lot over on the James16 chart thread. A two bar high with lower close formed right on the 1.2600 which gave me a downward bias. I took the next candle breaking below at 1.2588 with my stop above this (13 pips away). Again a nice move down followed which I was very pleased about and I moved my stop to 1.2562 (26 pips) which subsequently closed my trade as price moved up.

Suffice it to say I am very pleased with the results and thank you guys for opening my eyes to lower timeframe trading!

Good trading everyone!

Regards,

Dan.
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  • #1,998
  • Mar 5, 2009 5:26am Mar 5, 2009 5:26am
Quoting Islander
Thanks - I'll probably close this latest short before the BOE news due in an hour. The broker that I've got this trade on with likes to widen their spreads before big news announcements and also go into "requote" mode, so its best to be flat.
A nice spike down to the 100 level has given me good reason to now be flat!
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #1,999
  • Edited 5:40am Mar 5, 2009 5:39am | Edited 5:40am
@ DanUK

Hi Dan - its always nice to hear that someone new appreciates our posts and is banking some pips!! and yes, I do believe that you CAN make money on this TF, but you do need discipline and patience as well as a trading methodology. It also helps that us Europeans have the best time zone for trading.

On your cable trade, you've probably also noticed that the pull back after that wide range engulfing candle - I'm using the body to body method for engulfing candles - was halted exactly at the 50% retrace.....another reason to pull the short trigger... € also got into the fib decision zone...

Regards

Islander
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #2,000
  • Mar 5, 2009 5:46am Mar 5, 2009 5:46am
DanUK, welcome to the thread and thanks for your spot-on charts and analysis. We're all enthusiasts of the "less is more" mantra here, and your post qualifies with no problem at all!
I liked your first chart simply because I THINK the signal to go short was what a certain Oz trader calls a "fakey". If you go to YouTube and look for the trading videos of OzTrader, you'll see what I mean. Your first arrow pinpoints a doji and your second arrow pinpoints a spinning-top. It's the next candle that our Ozzie friend calls his "fakey" because of the upper shadow just piercing the high of the spinning-top, and price then starts dropping. I'm still trying to spot these particular signals on the 5m charts, with not much success, I'm afraid, so well done, mate.
I'm not familiar with the second signal, as I haven't read the James16 thread, but it looks very impressive.
Thanks again for coming in, Dan.
Cheers
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