Trade what you see NOT what you expect | Page 42 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Why did you start trading and what do you expect from it? 19 replies

How soon after you put on a trade do you expect to be "in the money"? 28 replies

How do you see trading - Do you see it as a means to an end? 12 replies

how long do you expect to trade? 10 replies

Trade What You See And Not What You Hope 0 replies

Attachments: Trade what you see NOT what you expect
Exit Attachments

Trade what you see NOT what you expect

  • #821
  • Mar 3, 2009 1:48pm Mar 3, 2009 1:48pm
Quoting cisco
Good luck.

I shouldn't have gotten into this trade. My boredom overcame my common sense. Trading at this time of day is risky, at best.
Well, you got a pin on the 15min close...might reverse at least to bounce off the 5/10 ma's...
  • #822
  • Edited 2:11pm Mar 3, 2009 1:57pm | Edited 2:11pm
Does anyone have any thoughts for tomorrow? I can see it being bullish...one of my platforms already closed the daily and it was a slightly green doji looking thing
My other one closes at 7est...I'll wait and see...any thoughts...anyone?

Asian session will hopefully show the way for London time...

Happy trading
  • #823
  • Mar 3, 2009 2:27pm Mar 3, 2009 2:27pm
Quoting BenScoobert
I feel like ive been left behind, I've just discovered this thread........

Having spent an hour digesting SOME of this thread I thought I'd pop a post in of something I'd like to see and I'm sure others would too.

I get the impression you don't like metatrader, but do you have a MT account you are using for which you could provide an investor password for followers to see your trades.
Hi Ben,

Your right, I don't like metatrader. I find their candles are too jumpy. I do run a metatrader platform but only for the dollar index. This thread is about showing you the setups so you can take them without following a trade call. You have to be able to trade on your own and with some simple setups, you can be successful at trading. My brother Infinity has the best motto, "Patience + Discipline - Greed = Success"

These setups work and can produce some nice pippage, but you as a trader need to be able to see them and take the trade on your own accord. Besides, if I'm not here to make the calls for you, what will you do then? Study the setups, go back through the thread as well. We're working on a document that will be posted soon that brings alot of the information together for easy reference.

Trade well!
EO
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #824
  • Mar 3, 2009 2:30pm Mar 3, 2009 2:30pm
Quoting KENNETH lEE
Hello ; EOhater..and everyone,

Just finished reading the thread and saw the pin bar, Took the trade didn't get filled great but didn't jump in with both feet so added to my trade higher up bring my entry average to 65. area.. The area I have circled when the red candle opened they were both flat tops. Was that a signal for a short also ? . I then added to my position once more .. Unfortunatelly my wife locked her self out and I had to take her some keys.. So closed with a
-4, Before trade could complete it self. Took same trade off another pair...
Hello Ken Lee,

I'll post you a response tonight. Unfortunately, my bank meeting took longer than anticipated.
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #825
  • Mar 3, 2009 3:17pm Mar 3, 2009 3:17pm
Quoting eohater
Hello Ken Lee,

I'll post you a response tonight. Unfortunately, my bank meeting took longer than anticipated.
Rumor has it you're burning up their supercomputer trying to count all those pips...
  • #826
  • Mar 3, 2009 3:25pm Mar 3, 2009 3:25pm
locking in pips with trailer off s/r 1.475 ping pong with sights on 1.4

then will re-eval for volley back north.

good pipin to all
  • #827
  • Mar 3, 2009 11:26pm Mar 3, 2009 11:26pm
Quoting daffy
I had some questions about today's charts.

First, look at the area circled in red. You'll notice the first 3 candles have long down wicks, while the last 3 candles have long up wicks.
Granted, you may already have entered a trade based on the area before that circled, but my question is how would you have treated each
candle as it printed out? Would your bias have been long on the first 3 candles and short on the last 3? Would you have taken into account
the descending slope of each successive candle?

Second, the candle circled in blue. I...
Daffy,

You've posted some good questions and I'm sure others have the same. Let me start of by saying, we have to remember to take the upper time frames into consideration. I was actually short off the 1h 50/62 price which is the following candle of the first that I have circled in red. I saw the setup on the 15m chart that I have circled in red and knew the 1h 50/62 was near. Without consideration of the other time frames, the setup I have circled in red is a clean setup for the movement south.

Now, following the candles, notice the candle I have labeled #1. This candle makes me want to go long on the following candle. The following candle did go up, went down and closed down. Why did the candle close indecisively? The prior PA I have circled in red and the candle I have labeled #1 caused this. Notice how the top wick of the candle after I have circled labeled #1 goes to about the midsection of the bottom wick of the hangman I have circled in red? Also, notice how the bottom wick of the candle goes to the midsection of the prior candle? Back to the upper time frames to see why or reverse the order and go short. I know this setup because I've been caught in the past on this. The hangman I have circled in red is strong and the upper time frames support the movement south. If I went long after the candle I have labeled #1, time to close and reverse when the candle closed indecisively. Now, if I had missed the bounce off the 1h 50/62, saw it was going south and wanted to get in, but didn't know where, the short from the midsection of the hangman is a great place to look. Like I said, I've been caught in this trap before.

Moving to the candle I have labeled #2. If I didn't believe the movement south was to be long lived, I would have went long on the opening of the following candle. The close across the 15m 50/35 with a full body and small wick is a common setup to go back across where she came on the following candle. Now, the candle following failed to make it back across or close higher than the opening of the candled labeled #2. Either lock positive pips when the following 15m candle labeled #3 opens or close and go south with her. Notice that candle #3 tried to go back across the 15m 35/50? Rejected though. If I had the long open still and locked positive pippage, and got stopped out and had the close of #3. Short on the following candle is the next trade. Candle #3 closed lower than our long candle.

I recommend you save this chart. I've seen it numerous times and so will you. I hope this helps, if I need to go further, please let me know.

EO
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp.jpg Size: 172 KB
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #828
  • Mar 3, 2009 11:36pm Mar 3, 2009 11:36pm
Quoting KENNETH lEE
Hello ; EOhater..and everyone,

Just finished reading the thread and saw the pin bar, Took the trade didn't get filled great but didn't jump in with both feet so added to my trade higher up bring my entry average to 65. area.. The area I have circled when the red candle opened they were both flat tops. Was that a signal for a short also ? . I then added to my position once more .. Unfortunatelly my wife locked her self out and I had to take her some keys.. So closed with a
-4, Before trade could complete it self. Took same trade off another pair...
Ken Lee,

Good questions! I took the short myself after the 15m pin and made some nice pippage to 4000. The following candles that you have circled are what I was watching as well. PA candles are always in play, and if you missed the move, you can always find another seat. If I didn't get in right after the 15m pin closed and saw the 15m candle that closed below the wick of the pin, I would take the short there with the same SL of 25 pips higher than the wick of the pin. Better entry price obtained with smaller draw down on the account. I had talked about this today about how I didn't want a close above the 15m pin. A close above the 15m pin takes the pin out of play. Next setup please.

Trade well!
EO
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #829
  • Mar 3, 2009 11:42pm Mar 3, 2009 11:42pm
Quoting eohater
Daffy,

You've posted some good questions and I'm sure others have the same....
Thanks for the input, Eo. Very helpful as always.
  • #830
  • Mar 3, 2009 11:54pm Mar 3, 2009 11:54pm
Thanks for the reply,, All I have ever studied on forex is Price Action,, But not at this level yet but working on it... Thanks Ken
Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #831
  • Edited 1:31am Mar 4, 2009 12:06am | Edited 1:31am
I had a further think and look at the chart I posted, and it seems reasonable to put forward that the candle you have labelled #1 and the two candles after, are reactions to the prior action. So there are buyers scrambling to cover their bets as they see that the trend is changing, and you've also got sellers trying to find a seat, because they missed the initial setup. The following three candles with longer up wicks signifies that sellers are firmly in control, and buyers are being shut out of the market, and we are on our way down.

EDIT: further think, it also seems reasonable to consider that there are a lot of traders that enter a trade on a delayed basis, as they rely on indicators, which are lagging, so those reading PA, would have entered on the bounce of the 1H 52 EMA, or the 15M candle formation. A few candles later, indicators would have caught up, and there would be more sellers entering the market and buyers exiting long positions.
  • #832
  • Edited 6:06am Mar 4, 2009 3:13am | Edited 6:06am
Thought I'd post up the following chart to point out you really should trade what you see, and not just part of what you see, but all of what you see. You''ll get what I mean as you read on.

Got on this morning, and the first thing I saw on the 15M chart was the three long up wicks near the 200 ema, and based on that I went short. My bias was short from that point onwards, so I took a short each time it came up to the 4070 area. This area was also significant because it was near the 1H 50 EMA. Don't get me wrong, this got me decent pips so I can't complain, however, I wasn't reading all the PA.

Notice the big green candle circled in red. It makes a clear break of the 50 EMA, that should have been a warning to check for retests of the 50 EMA. Notice all the areas circled blue? We're testing EMAs and the further right we go, the EMAs being tested are higher - suggests bears are weakening.

Now taking a look at the hourly chart, the hammer looks very bearish, however, scaling down to the smaller timeframe, we can see that the bulk of the hammer is formed by a bullish piercing pattern, in the blue square on the 15M chart. Based on how the individual candles formed, I'd be happy to ignore the hammer.

Another clue as to where we were going in the early part of the day was to look at the daily, where we had a bullish petrifying harami candlestick pair. (Credit to Bones for pointing this out)

So by reading some of the PA, I made some pips. If I'd read all the PA, I could have made more pips. This hasn't finishing playing out yet, so I could be totally wrong on how I believe this will play out. Anyway, lesson learned, I won't make the same mistake again, and hopefully, anyone that reads this won't have to learn the way I did.

UPDATE: Seems we continued to stay above the 200 EMA on the 15M chart (the uppermost line in my previous chart), and failed to break below it. So we could have held on to our long from the bounce off the 50 EMA earlier in the day, or traded bounces off the 200 EMA upwards.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp15.jpg Size: 158 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp60.jpg Size: 158 KB
  • #833
  • Mar 4, 2009 5:23am Mar 4, 2009 5:23am
Alot of pairs seem to be sitting right on key areas in the Monthly charts....:nerd:

I'm going to check back around 3:00pm EST and go watch a DVD and catch a nap!!!!

HOLLA
  • #834
  • Mar 4, 2009 5:24am Mar 4, 2009 5:24am
Quoting Turtle
Alot of pairs seem to be sitting right on key areas in the Monthly charts....:nerd:

I'm going to check back around 3:00pm EST and go watch a DVD and catch a nap!!!!

HOLLA
Good morning...that sounds like a very good idea...enjoy !!!
  • #835
  • Mar 4, 2009 5:42am Mar 4, 2009 5:42am
Quoting Turtle
Alot of pairs seem to be sitting right on key areas in the Monthly charts....:nerd:

I'm going to check back around 3:00pm EST and go watch a DVD and catch a nap!!!!

HOLLA
hey Bud,

how long have been trading now? I remeber you said you'd got out of the services and didn't want to go back.

Also setting a point I know where I got to on this thread for ease.
please DON'T copy my trades I am still learning
  • #836
  • Mar 4, 2009 6:54am Mar 4, 2009 6:54am
Good morning everyone! We've had some nice scalping opportunities this morning. I hope everyone got a piece of the action. Now, she's sitting at a critical level, 4160 is an area that if we break it, we're launching toward the 15m 200sma. I'm currently long from 4080, I just took some profit off at 4125 and keeping the rest coveredt at +3.
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #837
  • Mar 4, 2009 6:56am Mar 4, 2009 6:56am
Quoting eohater
Good morning everyone! We've had some nice scalping opportunities this morning. I hope everyone got a piece of the action. Now, she's sitting at a critical level, 4160 is an area that if we break it, we're launching toward the 15m 200sma. I'm currently long from 4080, I just took some profit off at 4125 and keeping the rest coveredt at +3.
Good morning EO,
I've had a slow morning...few pips on a couple of scalps and now waiting at the bus stop
  • #838
  • Mar 4, 2009 7:00am Mar 4, 2009 7:00am
Quoting rt4x
Good morning EO,
I've had a slow morning...few pips on a couple of scalps and now waiting at the bus stop
I believe Obama is speaking this morning, right now, about cutting back on wasteful spending.

EDITED
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #839
  • Mar 4, 2009 7:08am Mar 4, 2009 7:08am
Quoting eohater
I believe Obama is speaking this morning, right now, about cutting back on wasteful spending.

EDITED
Well if its not trickling down into my pockets, then its wasteful spending...
  • #840
  • Mar 4, 2009 7:12am Mar 4, 2009 7:12am
Quoting nyjetfan
Well if its not trickling down into my pockets, then its wasteful spending...


Notice how the DOW is taking to the news of cutting spending. She's going down, but is she just going to fill the morning gap?
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
58 traders viewing now