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Psych Levels, Pivots, and Trendlines - Resurrected

  • #1,941
  • Mar 2, 2009 3:03am Mar 2, 2009 3:03am
So The Brits have initially pushed cable down to retest its earlier low and the hourly 20 and 50 EMAs (green) are both still heading down.

However, the tweezers / railroad tracks bounce up off the 175 level was strong, so now we need to see what happens in the Fib Decision Zone. Will cable decide to turn back down OR will it pass up thru the zone confirming the long AND suggesting a move back up towards Friday's high.....TWT, meanwhile, I've banked 30 pips of profit, leaving the remainder to run with my trailing stop now at 4195

UK Manufacturing PMI is at 4:30 EST / 9:30 GMT
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #1,942
  • Mar 2, 2009 3:30am Mar 2, 2009 3:30am
Welcome back, Islander. Hope you had a nice weekend.
Interesting trade just now on cable. The result of a rising wedge, which is always looked upon as bearish. A dark cloud cover formed, straddling both MA's, with the next candle dropping and breaking out of the wedge. Entry just under the M2 line, and I was hoping for a move down to the xx80 psych-line, but the tweezer-bottoms put paid to that, and I jumped ship as price started heading northwards again.
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  • #1,943
  • Mar 2, 2009 4:00am Mar 2, 2009 4:00am
Quoting eyevoltage
Welcome back, Islander. Hope you had a nice weekend.
Interesting trade just now on cable. The result of a rising wedge, which is always looked upon as bearish. A dark cloud cover formed, straddling both MA's, with the next candle dropping and breaking out of the wedge. Entry just under the M2 line, and I was hoping for a move down to the xx80 psych-line, but the tweezer-bottoms put paid to that, and I jumped ship as price started heading northwards again.

Hi EV - yes thanks - sun all day Friday, so the sailing was great

Nice trade. IMO cable's still undecided...typical Monday.....I stupidly missed my own signal - the rejection at the aqua ema in the DZ - a clear sell!.

I've now taken another long off the higher low at 4183 as once again the selling dried up.....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #1,944
  • Edited 4:32am Mar 2, 2009 4:20am | Edited 4:32am
Another rising wedge, and another dark cloud cover. However, entry is delayed due to price being held up by the xx00 psych-line. Watching and waiting.....

Edit: Well, with the xx00 proving to be a stubborn support, and the MA's flattening out, I think I'll write this one off.
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  • #1,945
  • Mar 2, 2009 5:01am Mar 2, 2009 5:01am
Quoting Islander

I've now taken another long off the higher low at 4183 as once again the selling dried up.....
Again, failed to break up thru the still falling aqua ema, so exited long and sold after the break of the 200 level.....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #1,946
  • Mar 2, 2009 5:05am Mar 2, 2009 5:05am
Quoting Islander
Again, failed to break up thru the still falling aqua ema, so exited long and sold after the break of the 200 level.....
Which is what I should have done. Unfortunately, I was called away and missed it. C'est la vie......
  • #1,947
  • Mar 2, 2009 5:26am Mar 2, 2009 5:26am
Quoting eyevoltage
Which is what I should have done. Unfortunately, I was called away and missed it. C'est la vie......
NP - this morning there are plenty of "hit nd run" trades for 20 / 30 pips whilst its chopping slowly down.....I've now taken a long after that spinning top / hammer that made a new low, without follow thru.....TP 200 level / aqua eam....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #1,948
  • Mar 2, 2009 5:31am Mar 2, 2009 5:31am
Quoting Islander
NP - this morning there are plenty of "hit nd run" trades for 20 / 30 pips whilst its chopping slowly down.....I've now taken a long after that spinning top / hammer that made a new low, without follow thru.....TP 200 level / aqua eam....
Yes, a little harami formed just above the S1 line, and now price is indeed sitting around the 1.4200 line right now. Well done, mate.
  • #1,949
  • Mar 2, 2009 5:48am Mar 2, 2009 5:48am
Quoting Islander
NP - this morning there are plenty of "hit nd run" trades for 20 / 30 pips whilst its chopping slowly down.....I've now taken a long after that spinning top / hammer that made a new low, without follow thru.....TP 200 level / aqua ema....
TP at the 200 level and reversed to short when it failed......target is the 4155 low....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #1,950
  • Mar 2, 2009 5:55am Mar 2, 2009 5:55am
We're working in tandem, Islander! Just finished that drop on cable. It was a bearish engulfing candle forming on the confluence of the 34ema and the xx00 psych-line that grabbed my attention. I made a very conservative entry just under the xx80 psych-line, and I'm not sure which dropped quicker.....the price or my jaw!! I thought it would hit the xx20 psych-line, but seeing as it stopped short, I bailed out.
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  • #1,951
  • Mar 2, 2009 6:05am Mar 2, 2009 6:05am
Quoting eyevoltage
We're working in tandem, Islander! Just finished that drop on cable. It was a bearish engulfing candle forming on the confluence of the 34ema and the xx00 psych-line that grabbed my attention. I made a very conservative entry just under the xx80 psych-line, and I'm not sure which dropped quicker.....the price or my jaw!! I thought it would hit the xx20 psych-line, but seeing as it stopped short, I bailed out.
Nice one EV - I came out early as my TP was hit at the 55 level.

Now I've taken a small long as the 125 level seems to be holding..... I'll either take a 10 pip hit or get another 25 pip profit - TP at the prior 55 low.....TWT
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #1,952
  • Mar 2, 2009 6:15am Mar 2, 2009 6:15am
Quoting Islander
Nice one EV - I came out early as my TP was hit at the 55 level.

Now I've taken a small long as the 125 level seems to be holding..... I'll either take a 10 pip hit or get another 25 pip profit - TP at the prior 55 low.....TWT
Well, the tweezer-bottoms on the 1.4120 line signalled a high-probability rise, mate, and price did indeed hit the xx50 psych-line.
  • #1,953
  • Mar 2, 2009 8:02am Mar 2, 2009 8:02am
After LO when the Brits started selling, the aqua ema combined with the physc levels have given some clear short entries, right down to the test of the Feb 2nd low. Todays range so far is wider than average at 258 pips.

This has been a pure cable move, with the Euro and Swissy remaining sideways in narrow ranges. Lets see what the US session brings
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #1,954
  • Mar 2, 2009 8:36am Mar 2, 2009 8:36am
hey guys I was curious to know are even .xx25 and .xx75 psychological levels of S/R? Also can anyone suggest psych numbers for crude oil and gold?
  • #1,955
  • Edited 9:37am Mar 2, 2009 8:56am | Edited 9:37am
Quoting Islander
However, the tweezers / railroad tracks
A neat trick one can do with "railroad tracks" (or similar candles) is to "combine" them - take Open of the 1st candle and Close of the 2nd one, highest High and lowest Low.

So if you read such two M5 in that way, you get... M10 Pinbar!
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One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #1,956
  • Edited 9:05am Mar 2, 2009 9:02am | Edited 9:05am
Quoting bksujal
hey guys I was curious to know are even .xx25 and .xx75 psychological levels of S/R? Also can anyone suggest psych numbers for crude oil and gold?
Some traders DO use xx25 and xx75 as psych-levels, mate. Others prefer to use just the round numbers i.e. xx00 20 50 80. I guess it's whatever floats your particular boat!
As for Oil and Gold psych-numbers......I have no idea, but I'd make a guess that they're probably the same as for Forex.
Sorry I can't be any more help, mate.
Cheers

Edit: As an afterthought, try drawing the xx25 and xx75 lines on whatever chart you're using and see how price reacts at those points. Then do the same for the round numbers. You'll then be able to form your own conclusions as to what works best for you.
  • #1,957
  • Mar 2, 2009 9:07am Mar 2, 2009 9:07am
Quoting bksujal
hey guys I was curious to know are even .xx25 and .xx75 psychological levels of S/R? Also can anyone suggest psych numbers for crude oil and gold?
The psychological levels of 00, 75, 50 and 25 don't have anything to do with S/R or anything else for that matter. They are "psychological". Notice how prices in stores usually don't end in these numbers.

The psychological levels are the same for whatever you are trading.
TRO
  • #1,958
  • Mar 2, 2009 9:44am Mar 2, 2009 9:44am
Quoting Forex007
A neat trick one can do with "railroad tracks" (or similar candles) is to "combine" them - take Open of the 1st candle and Close of the 2nd one, highest High and lowest Low.

So if you read such two M5 in that way, you get... M10 Pinbar!

Oooooo!! That's cheating!!!
  • #1,959
  • Mar 2, 2009 10:13am Mar 2, 2009 10:13am
Quoting eyevoltage
Oooooo!! That's cheating!!!
I was always puzzled by such candles: same length, Open 1 = Close 2, and Close 1 = Open 2. When I learned that such two candles are, in fact, a "hidden" Pinbar, life became easier.
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #1,960
  • Mar 2, 2009 11:10am Mar 2, 2009 11:10am
Quoting Forex007
I was always puzzled by such candles: same length, Open 1 = Close 2, and Close 1 = Open 2. When I learned that such two candles are, in fact, a "hidden" Pinbar, life became easier.
Yeah, where reversals are concerned, it WOULD make life easier, because the two 5m candles don't make a valid reversal pattern, IMO. (I could be wrong, though! It has been known! ) However, the M10 pattern forms a hammer, which is much better. I read this myself somewhere quite a while ago, but I'd forgotten about it. I'll lock it in from now on! Thanks for the reminder, mate.
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