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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #12,561
  • Feb 23, 2009 5:14am Feb 23, 2009 5:14am
Like me USD?JPY is go down. What do you think?
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  • #12,562
  • Feb 23, 2009 1:09pm Feb 23, 2009 1:09pm
Well, I checked my charts and I'm still on the sidelines.
At this level, I'm not comfortable with longs or shorts.

The last pullback was only the 38.2% FIB from the move up on 02/12 (low 89.00) and the high of (94.45). The range from the 0.0-38.2 is about 170 pips. So 170 pips higher from the previous high of 94.45 = 96.15

This coincides as a heavy horizontal resistance line.

So - I will be looking for shorts if price gets near 96.00
  • #12,563
  • Feb 24, 2009 4:07am Feb 24, 2009 4:07am
Target reached:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=12507

now I'm short.
  • #12,564
  • Feb 24, 2009 6:52am Feb 24, 2009 6:52am
Quoting magictrader
Target reached:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=12507

now I'm short.
What is your entry, TP & stop?
  • #12,565
  • Feb 24, 2009 7:52am Feb 24, 2009 7:52am
Quoting dwildes
Well, I checked my charts and I'm still on the sidelines.
At this level, I'm not comfortable with longs or shorts.

The last pullback was only the 38.2% FIB from the move up on 02/12 (low 89.00) and the high of (94.45). The range from the 0.0-38.2 is about 170 pips. So 170 pips higher from the previous high of 94.45 = 96.15

This coincides as a heavy horizontal resistance line.

So - I will be looking for shorts if price gets near 96.00
Price has now made it to 96.00, just what we were looking for.
Now what I'm looking for is either an exhaustion spike 'up' to resistance to sell on, or you'll start to see a rounded top start to form on the M30s. Once I see that, I'll enter my short. Until then, I'm still watching because price still looks to want to go up, until weakness is shown.
  • #12,566
  • Feb 24, 2009 8:35am Feb 24, 2009 8:35am
getting very close to daily 200 EMA.
Any thoughts?
  • #12,567
  • Feb 24, 2009 9:28am Feb 24, 2009 9:28am
Looks like 96.50 may be acting as a decent resistance.
In the past at good resistance, the U/J will dip down a little, come back to retest. If it fails, down we go.

This thing is in a heavy uptrend, shorting must be down with caution and you need to have some very good reasons to get in, not just a 'gut' feeling.

I saw where others shorted near 95.00 and they are getting beat up pretty bad right now. If they had waited for confirmation and good resistance, they wouldn't have a 150+ pip drawdown (if they didn't set a stop). It could very easily bust through 96.50 and go to 97.50 in a heartbeat.

Be patient on your short entry - think of it this way, it would be better to miss the move than get it wrong.
  • #12,568
  • Feb 24, 2009 12:12pm Feb 24, 2009 12:12pm
I took a short position at 96.80 and just closed it for +22 pips @ 96.58.
I didn't like the doji on the H1 and the M30.
The H1 also looks like it wants to form a bullish flag.

If price can't close above 96.85, I'm going to start looking for shorts again.
  • #12,569
  • Feb 24, 2009 12:25pm Feb 24, 2009 12:25pm
Damn, this thing is due for a hard-ass plunge ...
  • #12,570
  • Feb 24, 2009 12:27pm Feb 24, 2009 12:27pm
Quoting Schminner
Damn, this thing is due for a hard-ass plunge ...
I agree - just got to do carefully.
The absolute perfect short for me would be at the 98.50 area. I just wonder if it has enough steam to get up there.
  • #12,571
  • Feb 24, 2009 12:35pm Feb 24, 2009 12:35pm
Quoting dwildes
I agree - just got to do carefully.
The absolute perfect short for me would be at the 98.50 area. I just wonder if it has enough steam to get up there.
My guess is to get in it at the peak of the trend, which is 96.91. If it climbs further, then scale in for a better price ...
  • #12,572
  • Feb 24, 2009 12:37pm Feb 24, 2009 12:37pm
Quoting dwildes
I agree - just got to do carefully.
The absolute perfect short for me would be at the 98.50 area. I just wonder if it has enough steam to get up there.
Hey friend, I took the week off. Well, not really cause I just shorted lol.

Anywho, I think a pullback is needed, not consolidation, it needs to start making a trend, higher lows you know, but all we have is spike, consolidation, spike, which is good if you're long cause you won't be selling lol, but from a trend perspective it's not healthy in my opinion.
  • #12,573
  • Feb 24, 2009 12:40pm Feb 24, 2009 12:40pm
Quoting Schminner
My guess is to get in it at the peak of the trend, which is 96.91. If it climbs further, then scale in for a better price ...
careful with the peaks though, they are looking for a reason to rally - if a peak is broken, it usually jumps up pretty high. In this case I would expect a break of 96.95 would push it to 97.20-97.50 fairly easy.

what we look for is weakness - failed rallies, not breaking the peak, etc...
once we see those behaviors, it could then be running out of steam
  • #12,574
  • Feb 24, 2009 12:42pm Feb 24, 2009 12:42pm
Quoting forextine
Hey friend, I took the week off. Well, not really cause I just shorted lol.

Anywho, I think a pullback is needed, not consolidation, it needs to start making a trend, higher lows you know, but all we have is spike, consolidation, spike, which is good if you're long cause you won't be selling lol, but from a trend perspective it's not healthy in my opinion.
Hey!
Yeah, it will pullback - the market is fluid, it's just a matter of 'when'. None of the longs get paid until they start selling their positions.
  • #12,575
  • Feb 24, 2009 12:42pm Feb 24, 2009 12:42pm
Quoting dwildes
careful with the peaks though, they are looking for a reason to rally - if a peak is broken, it usually jumps up pretty high. In this case I would expect a break of 96.95 would push it to 97.20-97.50 fairly easy.

what we look for is weakness - failed rallies, not breaking the peak, etc...
once we see those behaviors, it could then be running out of steam
What's up with these candles, looking at the 5min everything looks so small like it just inched it's way up lol.
  • #12,576
  • Feb 24, 2009 12:44pm Feb 24, 2009 12:44pm
Quoting forextine
What's up with these candles, looking at the 5min everything looks so small like it just inched it's way up lol.
one of 2 things:

  1. no more buyers
  2. sellers too scared to enter - waiting on confirmation

  • #12,577
  • Feb 24, 2009 12:45pm Feb 24, 2009 12:45pm
Quoting dwildes
Hey!
Yeah, it will pullback - the market is fluid, it's just a matter of 'when'. None of the longs get paid until they start selling their positions.
and looking at the chart I wouldn't have sold yet either. I've seen it many times with stocks, small green days all the way up and then one day it get's nailed, and it loses a ton. not saying that will happen here, but it sure looks like it needs to happen.
  • #12,578
  • Feb 24, 2009 12:46pm Feb 24, 2009 12:46pm
Quoting dwildes
one of 2 things:

  1. no more buyers
  2. sellers too scared to enter - waiting on confirmation

But if we all start shorting right now maybe everyone will jump on the bandwagon and end the upward trend ...
  • #12,579
  • Feb 24, 2009 12:48pm Feb 24, 2009 12:48pm
Quoting Schminner
But if we all start shorting right now maybe everyone will jump on the bandwagon and end the upward trend ...
I'm already short lol, can't short more!
  • #12,580
  • Feb 24, 2009 12:52pm Feb 24, 2009 12:52pm
Quoting forextine
I'm already short lol, can't short more!
Same here ... hopefully we won't lose our shorts ...
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