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Igrok Method. Q's & A's. Comments, thoughts and ideas

  • #121
  • Mar 28, 2007 3:59am Mar 28, 2007 3:59am
Thanks for your prompt reply on this one. Yes, I overlooked the fact that GBP had also gone up a little before coming down today.
The only template I'm not getting completely is # 18.4. I am hoping that you can clarify a few confusing points for me.
The first move with a range of 80-100 pips has to be against the previous day's move. The position will be opened in the direction of the previous day's move, during late European or NY session. This is how I understand it. Please let me know if this is correct.
To apply this concept to GBP today: Yesterday's direction was down overall. So our trade today should be short, not long. And assuming that the low of the day is ~9600, the short trade should be opened ~9630.
  • #122
  • Mar 28, 2007 4:07am Mar 28, 2007 4:07am
Quoting okfx
Thanks for your prompt reply on this one. Yes, I overlooked the fact that GBP had also gone up a little before coming down today.
The only template I'm not getting completely is # 18.4. I am hoping that you can clarify a few confusing points for me.
The first move with a range of 80-100 pips has to be against the previous day's move. The position will be opened in the direction of the previous day's move, during late European or NY session. This is how I understand it. Please let me know if this is correct.
To apply this concept to GBP today: Yesterday's direction was down overall. So our trade today should be short, not long. And assuming that the low of the day is ~9600, the short trade should be opened ~9630.
Intraday picture on cable is opposite to the intraweek picture. So far, the direction of the main move of the week is up and a return closer to the bottom of the week gives us an opportunity to take a long position on intraweek basis with stops below the current low of the week. In this case the target will also be based on average weekly range. This is not an intraday trade, but it offers us an opportunity to take a position by risking 20 pips in exchange for 200-250 pips of potential profit.
  • #123
  • Mar 28, 2007 6:42am Mar 28, 2007 6:42am
Quoting Igrok
Intraday picture on cable is opposite to the intraweek picture. So far, the direction of the main move of the week is up and a return closer to the bottom of the week gives us an opportunity to take a long position on intraweek basis with stops below the current low of the week. In this case the target will also be based on average weekly range. This is not an intraday trade, but it offers us an opportunity to take a position by risking 20 pips in exchange for 200-250 pips of potential profit.
what if it turns out to be like gbpjpy, a reversal ??
The future depends on what we do in the present.
  • #124
  • Mar 28, 2007 6:54am Mar 28, 2007 6:54am
Quoting compro99
what if it turns out to be like gbpjpy, a reversal ??
Doesn't look this way. Technically 2.0000-2.0100 on Cable is a must as well as 1.1640 on swissy and 1.3750-3800 on EUR/USD. Also shouldn't take much time to get there. A week or two.
Before that even the reversal on GBP/JPY might take some break.
  • #125
  • Mar 28, 2007 7:06am Mar 28, 2007 7:06am
Quoting Igrok
Doesn't look this way. Technically 2.0000-2.0100 on Cable is a must as well as 1.1640 on swissy and 1.3750-3800 on EUR/USD. Also shouldn't take much time to get there. A week or two.
Before that even the reversal on GBP/JPY might take some break.
HOw did u get those projected prices ?
The future depends on what we do in the present.
  • #126
  • Mar 28, 2007 7:14am Mar 28, 2007 7:14am
Quoting compro99
HOw did u get those projected prices ?
I would rather not to say that. On my experience any detailed analysis or projection after being published has no chance of fulfilling. This is why I like reading and listening other people's projections and ideas because this way I know exactly which particular scenario will never happen.
  • #127
  • Mar 28, 2007 7:50am Mar 28, 2007 7:50am
so it looks like my june put on GBP at strike 19200 must be considered burnt !!!
The quality of your life is brought about by the quality of your thinking.
  • #128
  • Mar 28, 2007 8:02am Mar 28, 2007 8:02am
Quoting hornet
so it looks like my june put on GBP at strike 19200 must be considered burnt !!!
I'm not sure about that. On my personal view I would rather schedule 1.92 level for August but this is a long shot. The problem is that trading levels are usually much easier to project than timing and sequence. Anything more complicated than projecting just a direction and an immediate target doesn't usualy work.
  • #129
  • Mar 28, 2007 8:08am Mar 28, 2007 8:08am
Quoting Igrok
I'm not sure about that. On my personal view I would rather schedule 1.92 level for August but this is a long shot. The problem is that trading levels are usually much easier to project than timing and sequence. Anything more complicated than projecting just a direction and an immediate target doesn't usualy work.
i realized that, in fact I just bought a put the other day on aud for sept at 7900. might look better for that time frame, I'm convinced the usd will rally across the board sometime this year but, it might take a bit longer than I initially thought.
The quality of your life is brought about by the quality of your thinking.
  • #130
  • Mar 28, 2007 8:13am Mar 28, 2007 8:13am
Quoting hornet
i realized that, in fact I just bought a put the other day on aud for sept at 7900. might look better for that time frame, I'm convinced the usd will rally across the board sometime this year but, it might take a bit longer than I initially thought.
Yeah...I also think that we haven't seen the high of the year on the USD yet but it will take time to get it higher.
  • #131
  • Mar 28, 2007 8:19am Mar 28, 2007 8:19am
Quoting Igrok
Yeah...I also think that we haven't seen the high of the year on the USD yet but it will take time to get it higher.
I just subscribed to your free trading school, I want to thank you for this opportunity.
The quality of your life is brought about by the quality of your thinking.
  • #132
  • Mar 28, 2007 8:47am Mar 28, 2007 8:47am
Quoting hornet
I just subscribed to your free trading school, I want to thank you for this opportunity.
You're welcome.

I guess I can elaborate a bit on the longer-term issue.
Here is my logic:
1. In the very end of 2004 USD/CHF bottomed out at around 1.1290. This should be a bulletproof level because that time it made just a second touch of the lower border of the very major rectangle that this pair has been building since 1989. So, this level shouldn't be taken out because then there will be no other major support below all the way to 0.85.
Also a third touch of the upper border of the same rectangle is missing so far and this border now comes at around 1.85 level. Based on this view I can at least say that 1.1300 is a critical level and the break below is possible only if somehting really scary will happen to the US.
2. If the downside for the swissy is well protected by this line in the sand, than it would mean that the average yearly range just doesn fit into the zone between this line at 1.13 and the current high of the year at 1.2575. Swissy has never build such narrow annual ranges before and thus unlikely to do it now.
So, based on that simple assumption I just come to conclusion that the USD rally are likely to take place later into the year and all the other majors are likely to go in the same direction as swissy.
  • #133
  • Mar 28, 2007 8:56am Mar 28, 2007 8:56am
BTW EUR/JPY could be bought here right now on the third touch of rising channel support on dailies if someone is not scared to trade against the momentum.
  • #134
  • Mar 28, 2007 9:00am Mar 28, 2007 9:00am
Igrok,

Can you give us a rough guide on how u calculate avg weekly, monthly and yearly range ??

They based on how many period for weekly, monthly and yearly ?
The future depends on what we do in the present.
  • #135
  • Mar 28, 2007 9:03am Mar 28, 2007 9:03am
Quoting Igrok
BTW EUR/JPY could be bought here right now on the third touch of rising channel support on dailies if someone is not scared to trade against the momentum.
not around the 155.50 level ???
The quality of your life is brought about by the quality of your thinking.
  • #136
  • Mar 28, 2007 9:04am Mar 28, 2007 9:04am
Quoting compro99
Igrok,

Can you give us a rough guide on how u calculate avg weekly, monthly and yearly range ??

They based on how many period for weekly, monthly and yearly ?
I don't calculate. I just know them. But if you want to calculate then 30 last bars back of each time frame would be enough.
  • #137
  • Mar 28, 2007 9:06am Mar 28, 2007 9:06am
Quoting hornet
not around the 155.50 level ???
155.80 on my charts.
  • #138
  • Mar 28, 2007 9:09am Mar 28, 2007 9:09am
Quoting Igrok
155.80 on my charts.
i guess you read them better than me....

I'll get in now, it will probably never get to .50
The quality of your life is brought about by the quality of your thinking.
  • #139
  • Mar 28, 2007 9:34am Mar 28, 2007 9:34am
Quoting hornet
i guess you read them better than me....

I'll get in now, it will probably never get to .50
Such trades from technical levels should be planned in advance and executed with limit orders and stops being in place before time.
  • #140
  • Mar 28, 2007 9:46am Mar 28, 2007 9:46am
Quoting Igrok
Such trades from technical levels should be planned in advance and executed with limit orders and stops being in place before time.
Yep, got in at 155.60 on a limit order, stop at 154.70
The quality of your life is brought about by the quality of your thinking.
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