No Brainer Trades

Ok, I have time to look at the other one. GBPJPY long at 137.50. Again, look at the 1 hour. Even the 4 hour. There's no space here. Price shot up past it, but then came back right away to your level. It appeared to be a quick rejection of the highs, not a slow steady sell off to the level we're looking at. In my 2nd chart, GBP/JPY's price action resembled the right side example. We're looking for PA to resemble the left side. Also as with the EUR/USD, look how price stopped right above the level before continuing down. Again, it found support, just not at our desired level. I hope this makes sense

Sounds good and I was in no way questioning your strategy/breakeven pips/etc. Hindsight is always 20/20. I can't come up with any other excuses as to why the pair didn't bounce other than the fact that there looked to be a couple other support levels a little lower...but the 1.2762 level looked good on the daily/4hr, etc.

Life: re: gbp/jpy -- I see what you're saying. But I thought this was a pretty well-accepted method of trading breakouts, to get in on the first retrace back to the broken SR?

As for price action, that is definitely an area I need a lot of work in. I save the 1hr and 5m charts of each trade I take so I can study it later. The thing is that so far, many if not most of my successful trades have similarly "alarming" PA to the failed ones if not moreso, so I would be cutting out many of my winners and still leaving plenty of losers (the ones that just fail "unavoidably").

One ironic (read:annoying) thing is that my demo account is much more profitable than my live one, but not because I stick to my rules better with "fake" money than with real, but because the trades I take with the demo account -- the ones that appear lower probability -- invariably end up being successful, and thus push each day into profitability. Meanwhile, the "high probability" live account languishes at BE or loss. Go figure.

By all means, question away! I'm here to learn.

I think if you're going to scalp, then the GBP/JPY price action today could have been scalped. I believe BRV will do these on 15 minute charts and look for 40-50 pips max, but don't quote me on that. But given the PA on the 1 hour and 4 hour charts, price returned to the level way too quickly and I personally avoid this sort of PA.

Something that I personally consider how far price has travelled to get to a level. Price travelled well over 500 pips from the lows to highs today. Chances were that we were done making new highs for the day and were probably going into sideways action for the rest of the day.

Getting back to what I was talking about regarding support forming right above our level, check out the 5 minute chart I've posted. I've pointed out 3 levels in yellow. The middle level is 137.50 which is our old resistance area which we are now looking to become support. Well price decided that it wanted to stop at 3780. It did a strong rebound, made a new high and rejected very quickly. Price came back down again to 3780, this time doing a much weaker rebound. The third time back to 3780, it doesn't hold. Do you think at this point that 3750 will hold? Highly unlikely. Even if it does, the 3780 might prevent price from going much higher.

Now lets pretend for a second that instead of 3750 being the old resistance turned support, that it would be 3700 instead (the lower yellow line). This would change our views here. This gives us 80 pips of space on the setup before we encounter resistance. These are the types of trades that BRV was scalping I believe.

Most of trading is applying patience. Patience in waiting for the right set up. Patience in letting trades develop according to our rules. Its hard! I suck at patience, but its something I've improved upon tremendously. Try to keep in the front of your mind the name of this thread, 'No Brainer Trades'. Your trades should be clear and easy to spot (BRV's guidelines makes this a lot easier). Also keep in mind the quantity of trades that BRV took over the course of a few months. I'm always looking for reasons NOT to trade. Sounds backwards, but it keeps me from overtrading.

One last thought and then I really have to go. Besides the fact that not every level will work the same way, not all of them will go 150-250 pips either when they do work. You'll have to test it yourself to find out, but don't be surprised if out of 10 trades, only 4 or 5 go the distance. The rest will either be losers or small winners. In other words, if you can breakeven or come out a little ahead on the 5 or 6 trades that don't really go anywhere while letting profits ride on the other 4 or 5, you will be very happy. It seems that Mr. Shermanator is doing just that

Hi Orcus

I haven't had the time to look at your posts and trades in detail but if it is any consolation today was a crap day for trading s/r as many levels failed to deliver. I have found Mondays can be like that.

The only successful levels on my charts today carried from last week were:-

AUDJPY 6183

EURJPY 12186

EURUSD 13000

GBPUSD 14600

Price action today was also very unsettling, as a result one of the traders I know got fed up with the ambiguity and went down to scalping very low timeframes instead.

Tomorrow is another day.

I entered the USD/CHF Short @ 1.1708, SL @ 1.1727

Becareful....I like that level as well...just to early you whant to trade when a level is strong and that level is but it has a flaw at the moment. That is that not many traders are trading at the moment meaning many limit orders or market orders wont fill shorts...I wont take this trade at this time myself but good luck on it.

Sure thing Sherm, I appreciate the feedback.

Low volume was a worry but coming into the JPY session, I was looking for some USD moves.

Siam, you awake yet?

I am on that one too. We shall see.....

Closed early for +10.

I grabbed 18.....did not like the way it was acting 680.

Here is something I am looking foward to getting into...this is omething I am looking into for london session...

I was looking at that too. Like a 20 pip range there from 760-780

I would not short it myself at 2760....its not a bargain for a short yet for me ...I whant to push a bitt deeper the better they might pop it by a bitt and then fall...I would only come in from 2780 to about 28....

Morning,

Waiting for this to fall back into that triangle if it does next level i'll be looking @ for a break will be 12500 higher up for a fade 2790 ish.

Hello everyone in this forum

I am new to forex and i have been learning a lot from this thread. Thanks everyone here.

What do you think about this trade in gbp/jpy. Shall i short from the levels shown? Is this the right trade setup?

Any help from this thread would be highly appreciated.

Looks good to me but be careful, I see an inverted head and shoulders forming.

I see this resistance line has been attacked quite often and held pretty strong, possible short here.

Thanks PLooB for reply. I will definately keep in mind the reverse head and shoulder. great observation abot h&s formation.

Thanks