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No Brainer Trades

  • #9,061
  • Feb 23, 2009 7:23am Feb 23, 2009 7:23am
Quoting Marco
Hi there,

what do you think of this one? Buy EUR/JPY at 120. Looks like good support + 50% fib of the last move up...

Thanks for comments,

Marco
Well here the conditions are shifiting ....you dont know if the sentiment is strong enough to continue or if the larger scale size of supply will over run from the daily...this simply means that you have to treat this trade with caution as well as move stop faster to break even if it turns around and shakes you off fast...it really comes down to how you manage it by know your surroundings in all timeframes.
  • #9,062
  • Feb 23, 2009 7:46am Feb 23, 2009 7:46am
Yep I am in that long as well...just becarefull with the conditions.....

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  • #9,063
  • Feb 23, 2009 7:52am Feb 23, 2009 7:52am
Alright seems like the conditions are right...

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dont be the house on it just be cautious and move stop to break even very fast...
  • #9,064
  • Feb 23, 2009 8:07am Feb 23, 2009 8:07am
Got in at 120.20, stop is already at breakeven now. Let's see what it (and the S&P) does ;-)
  • #9,065
  • Feb 23, 2009 8:16am Feb 23, 2009 8:16am
I am still long on mine but I am looking at the conditions to decide for me what to do ...

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  • #9,066
  • Feb 23, 2009 8:29am Feb 23, 2009 8:29am
Alright I am now up 40 pips ....I have now moved my stop to break even...

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  • #9,067
  • Feb 23, 2009 8:43am Feb 23, 2009 8:43am
I have closed with 1 pip ....crappy rythem...

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  • #9,068
  • Feb 23, 2009 9:06am Feb 23, 2009 9:06am
Alright guys crappy trading day....lol ....broke even for the night I am going to kill this suckers tomorrow
  • #9,069
  • Feb 23, 2009 9:37am Feb 23, 2009 9:37am
Where is the star BillyRayValentine who started this thread, really strange he has all but disappeared.
  • #9,070
  • Feb 23, 2009 10:14am Feb 23, 2009 10:14am
I think BRV and some of the old regulars probably just moved on. Either went their separate ways or maybe chat privately.
  • #9,071
  • Feb 23, 2009 10:20am Feb 23, 2009 10:20am
Quoting Shermenator
Alright guys crappy trading day....lol ....broke even for the night I am going to kill this suckers tomorrow
Yeah, even the most significant price levels weren't yielding a respectable amounts of pips - nice accurate entries though!
  • #9,072
  • Feb 23, 2009 10:24am Feb 23, 2009 10:24am
Quoting orcus
I think BRV and some of the old regulars probably just moved on or maybe chat privately.
You are right on both counts there.

Unlike some on this site BRV had no subscriptions or membership to promote, therefore his work here is done. The system remains valid.
  • #9,073
  • Feb 23, 2009 11:34am Feb 23, 2009 11:34am
USD/CHF 1.17 Level for Short

Old support and resistance and can be easily seen on daily, 4hr, 1hr.

I'm not happy that it's jumped back upon the old trend line...if nothing else, the 1.17 price point would be an area for a scalp.

Keeping tabs on the EUR/USD. If we bust the 1.27ish support, we may have a USD run.

Thoughts?

http://i24.photobucket.com/albums/c2...rex/uc11-1.jpg
  • #9,074
  • Feb 23, 2009 11:54am Feb 23, 2009 11:54am
I'm looking for that USD/CHF one as well. By the way, most of the ways I tried the trendline there would have price bouncing right off a confluence of the underside of the trendline and the SR.

A little later on I might post some of my failed trades to see if I can get some feedback; I'm only getting in the 50-58% success rate and would like some criticism of my entry choices to see what I'm overlooking or giving too much weight to. I feel like I am only taking the "obvious" trades -- to me, they stick out much more than many of the levels posted here -- and average around 2-4 trades per day, so on the surface I wouldn't think I'm taking low probability trades, but the results don't lie...
  • #9,075
  • Feb 23, 2009 12:06pm Feb 23, 2009 12:06pm
I see and agree with what your point on the trend line. I had originally posted a trend line coming from the daily wicks...a closer pull-up of the hourly trend line from the last couple weeks indeed puts 1.17 as the bottom of that trend line in addition to be being a rounder number + previous SR figure.

I would be interested in your previous trades, definitely post them.

Quoting orcus
I'm looking for that USD/CHF one as well. By the way, most of the ways I tried the trendline there would have price bouncing right off a confluence of the underside of the trendline and the SR.

A little later on I might post some of my failed trades to see if I can get some feedback; I'm only getting in the 50-58% success rate and would like some criticism of my entry choices to see what I'm overlooking or giving too much weight to. I feel like I am only taking the "obvious" trades -- to me, they stick out much more than many of the levels posted...
  • #9,076
  • Feb 23, 2009 12:27pm Feb 23, 2009 12:27pm
Quoting orcus
I'm looking for that USD/CHF one as well. By the way, most of the ways I tried the trendline there would have price bouncing right off a confluence of the underside of the trendline and the SR.

A little later on I might post some of my failed trades to see if I can get some feedback; I'm only getting in the 50-58% success rate and would like some criticism of my entry choices to see what I'm overlooking or giving too much weight to. I feel like I am only taking the "obvious" trades -- to me, they stick out much more than many of the levels posted...
Hi Orcus. What timeframes are you trading on? How many currencies are you watching? If you're on the 4 hour or daily and watching 4-6 currencies like BRV describes here, then 2-4 trades per day seems like a lot. I believe he had around 30 trades or so over the course of a couple of months back when he started this thread. Although I'm not sure he posted all the setups that became available. Remember what BRV said about support and resistance levels and time. You need time (space on the chart) between hits on a level. If it gets sloshed around too much it loses validity. Just because price is approaching a level doesn't mean its a valid setup. There are other factors that need to be considered.

Again, the 2-4 trade set ups per day seems like a lot...unless you are watching 20 pairs and lower time frames
  • #9,077
  • Feb 23, 2009 12:59pm Feb 23, 2009 12:59pm
I'm watching 10 pairs and basing SRs off 4hr and daily charts. I know BRV had about 40 trades over three months or so, but those were only the true "no brainers", ones he felt it would be plain dumb not to take. I never got the impression that there weren't many more trades that were still "high probability". Looking through the many, many examples he posted on this thread, I'm having trouble seeing what made those "no brainers" and so many of mine failures.

I think you're right that time and use/abuse are factors as well. That's an area that it seems there was always some ambiguity about; you want multiple bounces from both sides to prove the strength of a level, but not so many that it's been "abused"; time enough to pass for orders to accumulate, but not so much that the level has been forgotten.

Anyway, here are two failed trades from today. I'll post the charts if anyone would like, otherwise I'll just try to be clear about my reasoning:

1) 10:10 EST. Long EUR/USD @ 1.2762 - Very obvious former resistance on 2/19 with strong move to and away; not yet tested since breaking through on 2/20; 50f retracement of move up at 1.2751

2) 10:00 EST. Long GBP/JPY @ 137.50 - Another very obvious former resistance from 2/9 with reactions to that level in the past as well; seemed like high probability that there would be a retracement after the breakout of this resistance (which there was), and then a bounce and trend continuation up (which there wasn't). One problem here was that I stuck with my default stop of 40 pips, which is likely not enough for such a volatile pair with a high spread. In any case, had I had a 60 SL and stayed in the trade, the highest it ever bounced from this level was about 55 pips or so, before dropping back down and breaking through again to the downisde.

From other posts today it appears others have not had great results today as well, so this might just be one of those days...the 50%-58% success rate I've been having, though, goes back to when I first started keeping detailed records on Jan 6, and seems to match my non-recorded results previous to that.

Any feedback is appreciated, as always.
  • #9,078
  • Feb 23, 2009 1:16pm Feb 23, 2009 1:16pm
Quoting orcus
I'm watching 10 pairs and basing SRs off 4hr and daily charts. I know BRV had about 40 trades over three months or so, but those were only the true "no brainers", ones he felt it would be plain dumb not to take. I never got the impression that there weren't many more trades that were still "high probability". Looking through the many, many examples he posted on this thread, I'm having trouble seeing what made those "no brainers" and so many of mine failures.

I think you're right that time and use/abuse are factors as well. That's an area...
EUR/USD Long @ 1.12762 - Looks like you caught an initial bounce which was good for nearly 25 points. Unfortunately, there was no follow-through. Price wanted to see it's way down to 1.272ish before any more retrace and even then, it was short lived. Stops moved to breakeven, I hope?

GBP/JPY - I don't trade this pair as it's very volatile but the level looked obvious to myself and apparently others as I believe Sherm had posted it up earlier. Some work, some don't.

The levels look like good areas and I would think you would have ended the day with one B/E and one loss...?
  • #9,079
  • Feb 23, 2009 1:18pm Feb 23, 2009 1:18pm
Quoting orcus
I'm watching 10 pairs and basing SRs off 4hr and daily charts. I know BRV had about 40 trades over three months or so, but those were only the true "no brainers", ones he felt it would be plain dumb not to take. I never got the impression that there weren't many more trades that were still "high probability". Looking through the many, many examples he posted on this thread, I'm having trouble seeing what made those "no brainers" and so many of mine failures.

I think you're right that time and use/abuse are factors as well. That's an area...

Hi again Orcus, I only have time to analyze one right now, so I will talk about EUR/USD because I was watching the 2750 to 60 area as well, but passed on it because of the following guideline offered by BRV on his blog:

If price has already undergone a significant retracement not too far away (20 or less pips appx.) from the level we want to trade. For instance, EUR/USD is in an uptrend. You mark a level at 1.5715. It hits 1.5700 and then retraces down to 1.5670, and then starts coming up again, taking out 1.5700. Your chances of price then making another retracement from 1.5715 have now declined. Look for good spacing between pullbacks, usually anywhere from 40-60 pips on majors.

In our case today, EUR/USD came down from the 1.30 area and stopped about 20 pips from the level we thought was good support. It paused for a few hours then continued to fall. So it already found support a little above where we thought it would. Then it fell again. So this level should be avoided at this point. If price had found support at 2800-2825 instead of around 2775, maybe our level would have held.

I'm using a 1 hour chart here because it does a better job of showing what I'm talking about. I highlighted the area of support just a shade above my ideal level. Also note how even if we entered the trade, price sloshed the 2750 level and offered opportunity to exit for a small loss (depending on what the original stop was of course).

Hope that helps. Just keep rereading this thread and BRV's blog and this stuff will sink in.
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  • #9,080
  • Edited 2:01pm Feb 23, 2009 1:32pm | Edited 2:01pm
Thank you both for the responses.

Sam: No, I wasn't at BE yet. I've only been moving to BE, and taking off half the position, at +40 pips. Looking at my spreadsheet, if I moved to BE at +20, I would knock out more winners than losers (I'll have to actually plug in the numbers and see how the overall win/loss and profit is affected). With GBP/JPY, I might just start leaving that pair out. With the spread and the volatility, it might not be worth it for me right now -- I see I've only gone 2 out of 5 with that pair. I actually went 2/2 today, so broke even -- these two losses, and two wins with "NickB"'s method based on simple breakouts of SR with gbp/jpy (a method he claims has given him an 80% success rate over the last three years; I've personally had 80% success with it over the past three months).

Life: I forgot to mention in the "potential problems" the previous bounces nearby, but that actually was something I was aware of. I've been cancelling potential trades for that reason in my live (micro) account up to now; but I continue to track them in my demo account, and overall I've had more trades work out where I just stuck to my guns despite previous nearby bounces than trades that fail because of them, so I took this one live. edit: just checked spreadsheet; avoiding trades that had an earlier bounce within 20 pips would have cut out 4 losers, but 4 winners as well, and the winners were bigger than the losers, so overall profit would have been less. Interesting.

Anyway, thanks again for the feedback and I'll doubtless be looking for more in the future I should finally be fully caught up with this thread from the beginning this evening, and will then begin at the beginning of the Word doc I've been pasting key posts and charts into.
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