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  • #68,201
  • Feb 23, 2009 6:49pm Feb 23, 2009 6:49pm
this is open for debate but i have a buy order in @ 1.2699 because i see the scholastic indicator has been in over sold for some time now, also the parabolic is showing some slow down... do you think this is a good position and if so where do you expect the resistance to be. im thinking 1.2840's
  • #68,202
  • Feb 23, 2009 6:49pm Feb 23, 2009 6:49pm
Quoting ak4x
You could complicate them just a little bit by adding the TF for them. I won't spend the time more than this once to figure out the EU is probably a 4hr chart.. and I don't even have a swissy chart to look at.
Yes, both 4 hour charts.
  • #68,203
  • Edited 7:20pm Feb 23, 2009 6:50pm | Edited 7:20pm
Quoting SunTrader
If you keep reading this thread you will see many traders who look to "only" make 5-10 pips per trade don't stick around very long.

No offense meant - just a little reality.

Cut losers short, let winners run is one of the universal trading truths.
Their absence may have nothing to do with their looking to make "only" 5-10 pips per trade. The reason may be entirely different.....maybe poor money management....and after making lots of successful 5-10 pip trades they ventured to "keep" one trade going, and it slipped from a 5-10 pip profitable trade into a trade that wiped them out. And maybe THAT happened because their 5-10 pip trades were constantly overleveraged trades. There is nothing wrong with trading to get a piece of the pie where the filling is sweetest....those pips no matter how few, that lay between the point of a confirmed move and the point of the "opposite side traders" coming in to dump on it. Just IMHO>
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  • #68,204
  • Feb 23, 2009 6:54pm Feb 23, 2009 6:54pm
If you take a large move, like the one from 2525 to 2990 and plot your fibs, then bisect that move with another fib retracement you will often see additional areas of support. Here I see support at the inner 38.2% retracement. So, we either retrace to the two 61.8%s, at around 2705 or possibly the outer 50%, and then continue the trend down to the inneer 50% fib at 2642. Or we break through the inner 38.2% and continue down to the inner 50% and then to the 61.8%. Of couse I will be watching for any reversal or continuation patterns to see how this developes.

Trade at your own risk. These are just my thoughts.

G.

EDIT: The fib lines got moved around when I did the save in MT4. The inner fib is the orange one.
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  • #68,205
  • Feb 23, 2009 7:02pm Feb 23, 2009 7:02pm
Quoting geojams
If you take a large move, like the one from 2525 to 2990 and plot your fibs, then bisect that move with another fib retracement you will often see additional areas of support....
so with that i just want to be clear your expecting a retrace up @least 27's?? and what did you mean bisect with another fib ... how do you do that
  • #68,206
  • Feb 23, 2009 7:11pm Feb 23, 2009 7:11pm
Quoting Bling
so with that i just want to be clear your expecting a retrace up @least 27's?? and what did you mean bisect with another fib ... how do you do that
I will just watch the chart. If it goes back to the 2700 area and then I get a nice reveral signal, then I will enter short.

As for the bisection, an example might clear things up. Here is my first fib retracement. Sorry for the larger size. It was necessary to get the whole fib on the screen shot.
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  • #68,207
  • Feb 23, 2009 7:14pm Feb 23, 2009 7:14pm
Here is Example 2. I draw another Fib Retracement with 0% starting at the first fibs 50% and then extend it out to the first fibs 100%. Both Fib Retracements 100% level will be the same. I call this "bisection" because I am dividing the first retracement in half.
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  • #68,208
  • Feb 23, 2009 7:19pm Feb 23, 2009 7:19pm
One more thing on Fibs that I have noticed. Sometimes the best placement is not at the swing high or low, but where the candle opened or close. Notice what happens when I moved the 0% to this level and did not use the swing high. What I usually look for is the 50% to go through a large candle or two, to divide it as much as possible.

These are just things I read about and have been experimenting with for the past month or two. Sometimes I will plot a fib, or two, or three, only to see the retracements respected hours or days later. It's kind of spooky how often it is correct.
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  • #68,209
  • Feb 23, 2009 7:23pm Feb 23, 2009 7:23pm
Quoting geojams
One more thing on Fibs that I have noticed....
Ok i get that but what made you think it was going to continue down from the 50% fib again what method did you use to see it hit the 50 trace up a bit and continue down..... also why did you use the 1.2530 as the 100%
  • #68,210
  • Feb 23, 2009 7:27pm Feb 23, 2009 7:27pm
Quoting psiholog
i expect us to remain rangebound for now between 1.2695 and 1.2765. I have picked up a small long here..50pip stop loss 50pip take profit..i dont see any reason to push downwards at this time having broken so many support levels today already. not confident enough for a big position though haha..just testing the waters.

Attachment
i wanted to touch on a subject that i find is often over looked in this thread but just as essential as anything else in trading..the psychology of a trade that started off as a loser.

clearly my earlier analysis was wrong. we did break to the downside of that range which left me waiting for my stop loss to be hit. that S/L did not come and we have since then reversed course of action back to the upside. Now I know it is a common problem for most traders...at least when first starting to trade. You had a losing position that turned around and is now back at even..the zero mark. I can honestly say in the past to avoid a potential loss I would often just close that position at entry point and just look for next best entry as my initial analysis was wrong. I am sure many people in the trading bussiness do the same. But is it really the best option? I think not, at least not right away.

Lets use this particular example...I saw 1.2695 as the low end of the range. Once it was broken...in theory it should have become the new resistance. So after 30pips below that level and a return back to entry..the first thing i did is watch pa and determine whether it was becoming resistance or not. That was not the case so i did not close position. This does not mean that my stop loss wont be hit or ill take profit at 50pips. It just means my reasons for entry initialy are still valid as a successful breakout did not occur just yet and to get out at entry point now is both fear and greed combined...not smart trading. Now on the other hand if my entry would have acted as resistance...the temptation to close at zero would have been strong. I hope this clearly explains what im trying to say and if you can associate to it....its all a state of mind...control that mind state..control the trade.

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Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #68,211
  • Feb 23, 2009 7:33pm Feb 23, 2009 7:33pm
Quoting Bling
Ok i get that but what made you think it was going to continue down from the 50% fib again what method did you use to see it hit the 50 trace up a bit and continue down..... also why did you use the 1.2530 as the 100%
I don't think I entirely understand your question. Sorry. I'll try to answer what I can. I don't know if it will hit the 50% fib, maybe it will only go back to 61.8%. I just know that if it does get there, and then I see a reversal signal (DeMark TrendLine, Candles, etc) I will look to go short at that time.

As for why I used 2530 as my 100%, I chose that because it is near the previous swing low. It isn't exactly the swing low, but it's close enough. I look more to see that 50% goes through a large candle and sometimes I will adjust my fib's 0% and 100% accordingly. I know there are people here that will say your 0% and 100% must be at the swing high and low, but I do not agree. I just move the fibs around until I see the hidden patterns emerge. I'm still learning so try this for yourself and see if you like it.

EDIT: I should also add that this is just one tool. I also use S/R, Trend Lines, Psych Levels, and Pivots in varying degress.
  • #68,212
  • Feb 23, 2009 7:33pm Feb 23, 2009 7:33pm
Quoting psiholog
i wanted to touch on a subject that i find is often over looked in this thread but just as essential as anything else in trading..the psychology of a trade that started off as a loser.
I sort of get what you're saying, and that situation has happened to me a few times.....the most recent being 1 hour or so ago. But, when the trade gets back to my entry point I don't close the trade. I hang in there because I stick my my first belief, rather than close the trade and make nothing and lose nothing. I took the trade with a close position in my mind, and I stick to it. Of course I'm just a newbie, but that's the way I do it.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #68,213
  • Feb 23, 2009 7:35pm Feb 23, 2009 7:35pm
1.2722 Protected, so set SL around here 1.2727/33.
Short now at 1.2705!!

Target 1.2653&1.2633
  • #68,214
  • Feb 23, 2009 7:36pm Feb 23, 2009 7:36pm
Quoting realjumper
I sort of get what you're saying, and that situation has happened to me a few times.....the most recent being 1 hour or so ago. But, when the trade gets back to my entry point I don't close the trade. I hang in there because I stick my my first belief, rather than close the trade and make nothing and lose nothing. I took the trade with a close position in my mind, and I stick to it. Of course I'm just a newbie, but that's the way I do it.

thats good..all this means is my previous post does not apply to you as you have already mastered this. i just hope it helps those who havent achieved this mindset yet and how to try control such situations
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #68,215
  • Feb 23, 2009 7:41pm Feb 23, 2009 7:41pm
I give a call and this start to go to the upside!!

Fishy!!

No more calls!!!

This H1 must close below 1.2722
  • #68,216
  • Feb 23, 2009 7:43pm Feb 23, 2009 7:43pm
Quoting BoredToLoose
1.2722 Protected, so set SL around here 1.2727/33.
Short now at 1.2705!!

Target 1.2653&1.2633
Boredtoloose....what do you mean when you say a price is "protected"? And would a chart help explain that meaning?
  • #68,217
  • Feb 23, 2009 7:45pm Feb 23, 2009 7:45pm
Quoting BoredToLoose
1.2722 Protected, so set SL around here 1.2727/33.
Short now at 1.2705!!

Target 1.2653&1.2633

Good call. My inner Fib's 50% is at 2633.

This is the point where I switch to an M15 chart and look for an entry.
  • #68,218
  • Feb 23, 2009 7:49pm Feb 23, 2009 7:49pm
Quoting traderathome
Boredtoloose....what do you mean when you say a price is "protected"? And would a chart help explain that meaning?
Means that we can't see that price again, for at least 50/80 pips opposite direction!!

It is based on how I read some charts!!
If we cross that level more than 15 pips and go on, time to stop!!
  • #68,219
  • Feb 23, 2009 7:51pm Feb 23, 2009 7:51pm
Quoting geojams
Good call. My inner Fib's 50% is at 2633.

This is the point where I switch to an M15 chart and look for an entry.
I am getting 1.2636, both from the "fib. retrace bi-sect" as well as the doji high on the 30M chart two days ago....but what is a few pips, anyway.
  • #68,220
  • Feb 23, 2009 7:52pm Feb 23, 2009 7:52pm
Quoting SunTrader
...I go with the flow whichever bar type hits me at the time. My resistance zone looking pretty good right now.
Just toying with ya bud. I prefer bars myself, no different to candles. They both convey the same info (open, high, low, close). I don't need a colour coded candle to tell me if it's up or down.

PPZ is what it's all about mate. No denying you there. The best thread on this forum is adamant about PPZ.

Most of my remaining longs have been stopped out with plenty of green. Have a couple small ones still open in-case we have another stab (not confident about that, but you never know). We're back inside that daily falling wedge with false breaks both up and down. A good indicator to stay clear until it sorts itself out (for you longer term traders that is). Up or down is a coin toss now, the falling wedge pattern has been invalidated so it's a gamble either way (my motto is 2 false breaks and you're out).

My boat is packed and ready to go. I'm off for a while to get reacquainted with my fishing rod, the snapper are biting offshore so I'm out to get a bag this afternoon - weather permitting.

Green pips to all.
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