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  • #67,441
  • Feb 21, 2009 3:17am Feb 21, 2009 3:17am
Industrial production is declining at a pace that it did during the Great Depression in Europe.12% in december and and 8.4 a month before in november.
  • #67,442
  • Edited 6:14am Feb 21, 2009 6:06am | Edited 6:14am
Quoting nyse1982
Why are you concerned with the median price? Median prices are irrelevant because the market has no relevance except in the current direction or trend it's moving. If your using a median price then that means your looking at the past price action. Focus on current volume and price action.
"I went long at the 2557 bounce @2564 and added on at the recent pullback. My targets are 2670 and 2730. Now just wait and see. I put my SL at BE+1. ....let 'er rip. Profits are secure with that last move up. Put SL @1.2644 in case there is a weekend gap down again and I am calling it a day."

I do focus on the present.....

The Ichi S&R for the friday move was 1.2884 (Fridays high) and the Ichi low was 1.2823 (just above the close) - Now that's the present meeting the past.
  • #67,443
  • Feb 21, 2009 6:36am Feb 21, 2009 6:36am
I can try to answer here. right now we are stuck between the 38.2% and 50% level on the Monthly and yes the up trend from 2002 has been broken to the down side and tested, however, the 2001 trend has not. Could go either way here so we need to move down a bit. See next post.

AJ


Quoting dysan4x
Not that this has anything to do with what direction the market is going but does anyone realize that the median price of EUR/USD is 1.2764?

I only bring this up, because as someone else said earlier, E/U has been in an uptrend since 2002. Someone else said that trendline has been broken. Depends on how you draw the line and in which month. Maybe Psiholog would want to look at this since he is a trendline guru.

Damn....the weekend and nothing to do. See what kind of crap you can find?
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Disclaimer: Take all trades at your own risk. Trade Demo account only.
  • #67,444
  • Feb 21, 2009 6:40am Feb 21, 2009 6:40am
Quoting AJspeed
I can try to answer here. right now we are stuck between the 38.2% and 50% level on the Monthly and yes the up trend from 2002 has been broken to the down side and tested, however, the 2001 trend has not. Could go either way here so we need to move down a bit. See next post.

AJ
Now that was the answer I was looking for.
Thanks...
  • #67,445
  • Feb 21, 2009 6:54am Feb 21, 2009 6:54am
We have negligable divergence to the downside here on the 4 Hr and this T/F shows more than any right now. I fully expect this to head back down to the 2500/2600 area in a hurry. This is also the daily and weekly trend.

AJ
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Disclaimer: Take all trades at your own risk. Trade Demo account only.
  • #67,446
  • Feb 21, 2009 6:59am Feb 21, 2009 6:59am
Please keep in mind, I trade longer term off the Daily time frame and some of my stops are 300-400 pips. And when I say move down in a hurry, I am talking a matter of days. I also got a sell signal on my software along with a buy on the swissy and since I got both, that tells me a lot. Now I am saying down, BUT, it doesn't mean that it wont go up 100-200 pips first. Just for G.P. my stop on my E/U sell is at 1.3130 just to give you an example.

AJ
Disclaimer: Take all trades at your own risk. Trade Demo account only.
  • #67,447
  • Feb 21, 2009 8:12am Feb 21, 2009 8:12am
Quoting AJspeed
Please keep in mind, I trade longer term off the Daily time frame and some of my stops are 300-400 pips. And when I say move down in a hurry, I am talking a matter of days. I also got a sell signal on my software along with a buy on the swissy and since I got both, that tells me a lot. Now I am saying down, BUT, it doesn't mean that it wont go up 100-200 pips first. Just for G.P. my stop on my E/U sell is at 1.3130 just to give you an example.

AJ
Take a look at the monthly chart!!!
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  • #67,448
  • Feb 21, 2009 9:42am Feb 21, 2009 9:42am
For those of you who might have missed this highly acclaimed documentary, here is 30 min version:

http://www.iousathemovie.com/
  • #67,449
  • Feb 21, 2009 9:59am Feb 21, 2009 9:59am
Whether or not the trend is still intact or has been broken from 2002 or 1492 matters only if you are trading on a monthly or longer timeframe.

If someone trades intraday or over a couple of days at most then the most recent trend takes priority, not what happened years ago. Otherwise why not go back as far as the Romans to determine what the "euro" was doing then?
  • #67,450
  • Feb 21, 2009 10:13am Feb 21, 2009 10:13am
Quoting ak4x
Dude, what part of "Historic Proportions" did you not get?

And your explanation for all this is an after the fact Blog Post? Yeah, that's an improvement....

"Historic Proportions" sort of assumes that one would take a little wider view of things and think for a couple seconds of what might be making it historic... Very little of what is happening today is "real" news. Most of it has been predicted and discussed on these forums for weeks and months... all that was lacking was the time and names of the perpatrators.

I stand by my post,...
what i was trying to say was that these events (even if already predicted) move the markets regardless the day of the week, and i posted that link simply because it summarized my opinion about what happened yesterday.
  • #67,451
  • Feb 21, 2009 10:18am Feb 21, 2009 10:18am
You have to have 3 points, is what I was taught. You can draw any channel with 2 points of reference.

Quoting TheLastCoke
Take a look at the monthly chart!!!
Disclaimer: Take all trades at your own risk. Trade Demo account only.
  • #67,452
  • Feb 21, 2009 10:20am Feb 21, 2009 10:20am
Friday's wave chart variant, good job
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  • #67,453
  • Feb 21, 2009 10:27am Feb 21, 2009 10:27am
Now I remember why I stopped coming in here last year. Too much bad information!!!!

See YOU guys later.

AJ


Quoting SunTrader
Whether or not the trend is still intact or has been broken from 2002 or 1492 matters only if you are trading on a monthly or longer timeframe.

If someone trades intraday or over a couple of days at most then the most recent trend takes priority, not what happened years ago. Otherwise why not go back as far as the Romans to determine what the "euro" was doing then?
Disclaimer: Take all trades at your own risk. Trade Demo account only.
  • #67,454
  • Feb 21, 2009 11:00am Feb 21, 2009 11:00am
Quoting AJspeed
Now I remember why I stopped coming in here last year. Too much bad information!!!!

See YOU guys later.

AJ
Checked ur previous posts on FF and whatever u say i will do opposite.
  • #67,455
  • Feb 21, 2009 11:06am Feb 21, 2009 11:06am
no movement for the pair as of now. 1.2836

guess it will not be a super gap weekend !

Any discussion? I am looking towards a long term weakening of USD once the markets settle down a little
  • #67,456
  • Feb 21, 2009 11:07am Feb 21, 2009 11:07am
Quoting 5ysfx
Checked ur previous posts on FF and whatever u say i will do opposite.
I dunno about his calls. But I'm interested in risk to reward ratio because it sounds like he's risking more than he plans on making.
  • #67,457
  • Feb 21, 2009 11:08am Feb 21, 2009 11:08am
Quoting Bemac
Feb 20 09.
The day we had the big Run Up...

What are we dealing with here?
Pundits running around like ants under a plough. {not us, we're Traders.}

I certainly do prefer to React to Price as opposed to Predicting it based on FA But...
It doesn't hurt to, at least, be aware of FA.

USD Factors.
New Pres. = Honeymoon. {now that he is talking Afganist... that may soon change. However...}
Living on Credit & Credit Extensions.
Manufacturing in the WC.
Job Losses @ Record Pace.
Foreclosures at Stunning levels.
And the List goes on...

USD Perspective...
i agree fundemetaly with you..and i think eventually the world (countries) will agree. most are export driven and u.s. is the biggest consumer.. at least for now..(chindia) ... until then the world wants the u.s. purchasing machine to continue.. but will we?.. the longer this thing goes on we may and up like the more conservative pre ww2 generation...not a bad place to for the country... yes those who export will hate it.. but as in the past when comparatively u.s. products cost more.. they were of better quality...but we u.s. need to get back to what made u.s. great and actually build something the world wants and willing to pay more for... the more dollars u.s. holds as a nation comparibly to others makes us stronger... reduces devicit makes dollar stronger..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #67,458
  • Feb 21, 2009 11:14am Feb 21, 2009 11:14am
Quoting trading801
no movement for the pair as of now. 1.2836

guess it will not be a super gap weekend !

Any discussion? I am looking towards a long term weakening of USD once the markets settle down a little
Until it breaks 1.33 my closing above that level on the daily chart I would not aggressively go long. I'd cautiously go long with covered calls at a support level on the daily chart. I'm have a bearish bias however since the stock market closed the week below it's lows and below 7500. And so do the "Big Boys" Here is COT Indicator. I would look for them to switch net long as well. Right now their net short and their bias is down.

http://www.learningmarkets.com/image...ot-eur-usd.png
  • #67,459
  • Feb 21, 2009 11:19am Feb 21, 2009 11:19am
oh the COT graph.. but it is a week lagging right?
  • #67,460
  • Feb 21, 2009 11:20am Feb 21, 2009 11:20am
Quoting trading801
oh the COT graph.. but it is a week lagging right?
yes it is.
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