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  • #67,401
  • Feb 20, 2009 5:02pm Feb 20, 2009 5:02pm
Quoting SunTrader
Seems it is better to have the market show you an upmove (beyond one day) then start thinking bullish, because even though Friday closed up, on a weekly chart we had a lower low once again!!
Oh yes of course, the fat lady has not sung yet.

Would like to see a nice clean break of the falling wedge to confirm the pattern that's there in black and white.

Would actually have preferred it to hit monthly support first. If it doesn't and continues up, one would expect it to return down there sooner rather than later.

That said, there is an awesome weekly pinbar now, just another factor to consider.
  • #67,402
  • Feb 20, 2009 5:15pm Feb 20, 2009 5:15pm
Quoting akirax
EU at 1.2929?


www.xe.com

Correct

http://www.forex-markets.com/quotes.htm
Traders are smartasses
  • #67,403
  • Feb 20, 2009 5:25pm Feb 20, 2009 5:25pm
Quoting Spsantos
Correct

http://www.forex-markets.com/quotes.htm

wow... we may see a huge gap o sunday ? haha
and then we will be all the week waiting for the gap to close....
and then next week a huge gap down again... and each weekend there will be a bigger gap to fill. and then.... the gaps will expand as the universe... and forex will die... lol..
. ok time to enjoy the weekend.... and not to look at any chart or screen for two days......
have fun!
  • #67,404
  • Edited 5:31pm Feb 20, 2009 5:30pm | Edited 5:31pm
Quoting emda
wow... we may see a huge gap o sunday ? haha
and then we will be all the week waiting for the gap to close....
and then next week a huge gap down again... and each weekend there will be a bigger gap to fill. and then.... the gaps will expand as the universe... and forex will die... lol..
. ok time to enjoy the weekend.... and not to look at any chart or screen for two days......
have fun!


We'll be stuck in this forever!

Have a nice weekend you all!
Traders are smartasses
  • #67,405
  • Feb 20, 2009 5:33pm Feb 20, 2009 5:33pm
Consider this.

Does the Global Ecconomy Really Want the USD in the Toilet? Who would Win?

Govern yourselves/funds accordingly.
  • #67,406
  • Feb 20, 2009 5:42pm Feb 20, 2009 5:42pm
How correct are those after hour quotes? About two weeks ago there was talks about a couple hundred pip gap down and it actually gapped up.

I can't see a mass of people longing this thing after a move like we had today and a trickle down as the market closed.
  • #67,407
  • Feb 20, 2009 5:44pm Feb 20, 2009 5:44pm
Quoting emda
wow... we may see a huge gap o sunday ? haha
and then we will be all the week waiting for the gap to close....
and then next week a huge gap down again... and each weekend there will be a bigger gap to fill. and then.... the gaps will expand as the universe... and forex will die... lol..
. ok time to enjoy the weekend.... and not to look at any chart or screen for two days......
have fun!
Time to throw together a gap closing strategy
  • #67,408
  • Feb 20, 2009 5:52pm Feb 20, 2009 5:52pm
Quoting Bemac
Consider this.

Does the Global Ecconomy Really Want the USD in the Toilet? Who would Win?

Govern yourselves/funds accordingly.
I really dont know the answer. Would you please elaborate?

thanks
BB
Whats happening in EUR/USD should be happening to you!
  • #67,409
  • Feb 20, 2009 6:02pm Feb 20, 2009 6:02pm
Quoting Bemac
Consider this.

Does the Global Ecconomy Really Want the USD in the Toilet? Who would Win?

Govern yourselves/funds accordingly.
Ramifications would be horrendous. It would make the 1930's depression look like a picnic.

Sad thing is, it's the people that get burned. All because of a handful of greedy and reckless SOB's.

You can't just print money on toilet paper either (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nixon_Shock). Call it a butterfly effect, whatever. It will always comes back to bite, question is not IF, it's WHEN.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1235151923
  • #67,410
  • Feb 20, 2009 6:05pm Feb 20, 2009 6:05pm
If you been around on Fridays, you have to have seen this happen before. I used to sit and wait for it untill it became less repetitive. Besides, I posted what was going to happen earlier this morning. I didnt wait till after it happened. See post #67069

Quoting emda
how easy is to say that after seeing what happened... lol
Disclaimer: Take all trades at your own risk. Trade Demo account only.
  • #67,411
  • Feb 20, 2009 6:32pm Feb 20, 2009 6:32pm
Ok, here is my reasoning. You see the price went right to my long term target and backed off. I was talking to Phishhog a little about this earlier. Keep in mind that this is the 61.8% Fib level from the move down starting on 2/9/09. I adjusted the top DTL and it still is showing the Bullish Falling Wedge. I will be looking for a move back down to the 1.2500/1.2600 level and respecting this Wedge like it has been all along. We can still pull plenty of pips by trading from 1 DTL to the other and remember, the long term trend is down.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Disclaimer: Take all trades at your own risk. Trade Demo account only.
  • #67,412
  • Feb 20, 2009 6:38pm Feb 20, 2009 6:38pm
no gaps.

as of now , e/u is 1.2836
  • #67,413
  • Feb 20, 2009 6:43pm Feb 20, 2009 6:43pm
Quoting akirax
EU at 1.2929?


www.xe.com
This initially looked like an error to me as http://www.forex-markets.com/quotes.htm was showing the same thing within about 20 mins of the Oanda close at 5pm est. and at that time the close was 1.2830.

I've just checked it again and the price is back to 1.2836 so it does look like confirmation of an error. Something similar happened a few weeks back when they showed USD/CHF trading over 800 pips off the Friday close.
  • #67,414
  • Feb 20, 2009 7:05pm Feb 20, 2009 7:05pm
Quoting NuckingFuts
Time to throw together a gap closing strategy
Gotta hand it to you NF, you called that gap getting filled all week. I for one keep an eye on the weekend gaps closing up at some stage Monday and trade it but since Monday night, when it didn't get filled, I figured we wouldn't get to fill it moving further and further away from it. I thought about it this morning again and thought to myself, nah, no chance of such a rally to fill that gap way up there today. I missed the whole rally when it did happen and when I saw what happened just earlier, I remembered your calls. Wish I'd left that buy stop this morning at last Sundays open to TP on last Fridays close. Ah well. Well done everyone who made good pips today and for anyone who's still licking their wounds, there's always next week.
  • #67,415
  • Feb 20, 2009 7:17pm Feb 20, 2009 7:17pm
Quoting PipPig
Gotta hand it to you NF, you called that gap getting filled all week....
If I've got my point though to some you, my job is done. It's a game of probabilities and this gap closing thing on this pair is highly probable (NEVER CERTAIN, REMEMBER THIS). To me, it's a bit like seeing a double top and going all in long. Sure it may still go up, but chances are it's going down.

Have been seriously burnt before by trading against gaps on this pair (because I trade longer term).

As we saw this week, the gap was not looking like closing. The last few hours of Friday and well, here we are. It even had me surprised - both ways! Gap no close, wait it moved up near 300 pips and closed

Good weekend to all, I'm off for a BBQ.
  • #67,416
  • Feb 20, 2009 8:12pm Feb 20, 2009 8:12pm
Quoting psiholog
if you want to put it that way..up to you

the way i put it is psychology 101

most people go to school..read books...listen to professors...take tests and quizzes and do alot of homework. learning forex and the stock market is very much the same way, the only difference is the homework is called demo trading.

here comes psiholog (which means psychologist)...hates school...doesnt read books...cant pay attention to proffesors...fails mosts tests and quizzes and never does his homework and is currently a forex trader in the making who is a college...
Sorry to hear that, but it's very Naïve to think this way.

From the day you were born, you learnt almost everything (apart from the basic necessities of life) from somebody else. That includes talking, eating (babies are born with a sucking reflex - they still have to learn how to eat), walking, going to the toilet, and so on...

As for the teachers being a failure of the industry, I take offence to this as I guest lecture at a number of universities around Australia (nothing to do with forex/markets/finance either). Not because I have to (for bread), because I want to and I enjoy passing on my knowledge and success to others. And to say I failed in the industry, ha, quite the contrary. I have been very successful. I could retire tomorrow if I so choose.

You must open yourself a little more. Be a sponge, take everything with a grain of salt and make up your own mind.

I also have completed (and passed with distinction) psychology 101, 108, 202, and 206. So you can't pull the wool over my eyes there.
  • #67,417
  • Feb 20, 2009 8:28pm Feb 20, 2009 8:28pm
Quoting psiholog
another friday us market session is upon us soon....the indexes pretty much at the lows set in november..even lower. To top it all off...this is expirations week and that means locking in profits is what will happen soon. How does this affect the eur/usd...it creates a long bias until market close at least for me..i just see no reason to break the range when most are trying to lock in profits. on that note...heres my technical analysis


as i have mentioned many times now..these days double tops and double bottoms are very common. In fact, I find...
Psiholog, please correct me if I am wrong, but for a valid H & S, even an inverted one, the neckline must be reached on BOTH sides of the head (yes, minor variances excepted). In this case, the wild but brief trek north invalidated the formation by already running farther north than it would finally have done anyway. ??
  • #67,418
  • Feb 20, 2009 8:38pm Feb 20, 2009 8:38pm
Quoting traderathome
Psiholog, please correct me if I am wrong, but for a valid H & S, even an inverted one, the neckline must be reached on BOTH sides of the head (yes, minor variances excepted). In this case, the wild but brief trek north invalidated the formation by already running farther north than it would finally have done anyway. ??
The neckline psi has drawn is wrong.
  • #67,419
  • Feb 20, 2009 8:41pm Feb 20, 2009 8:41pm
Quoting psiholog
if you want to put it that way..up to you

the way i put it is psychology 101

most people go to school..read books...listen to professors...take tests and quizzes and do alot of homework. learning forex and the stock market is very much the same way, the only difference is the homework is called demo trading.

here comes psiholog (which means psychologist)...hates school...doesnt read books...cant pay attention to proffesors...fails mosts tests and quizzes and never does his homework and is currently a forex trader in the making who is a college...
The sounds of a man (yes, he is young) who doesn't fit society's molds, and has figured out already that they were made by none more capable of learning and suceeding than himself! So.......he is off to make a new mold, and apparently doing very well, indeed!

Good post, Psiholog.
  • #67,420
  • Feb 20, 2009 8:55pm Feb 20, 2009 8:55pm
Quoting juntherokmc
Hello, guys.

After the initial fall in EUR/USD straight after the "higher-than-expected" US core CPI data, EUR suddenly reversed its course and had recovered about 70 pips to around 1.2630 in less than 30 mins!!!

It seems that EUR might go up again against USD!!!
can anyone explain this sudden reversal? Is it just another unraveling of positions?

Thanks

p.s. I've got to admit that I am talking about this change on a really small time scale less than 1HOUR~!!
Some answers posted......"Friday !", and ......"ECB intervention".

How about this. The ONE consistent fundamental in forex is that the Big Guns need to make their pay.....every week! For this to happen, the PA must MOVE! And "news" is just fodder for creating the "reason" the PA moves, something that would happen regardless of what the "news" was. Do you think sometimes the PA moved differently than it should have.....well, the Big Guns can't keep moving it in the same direction continuously! So, they move it in the opposite direction for a while, on "news", even though relative to the news it makes no sense. It doesn't have to, as long as it makes big bucks for the Big Guns.
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