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Trade what you see NOT what you expect

  • #261
  • Feb 20, 2009 10:58am Feb 20, 2009 10:58am
Quoting eohater
Thanks bro!

Sorry to hear about the internet connection. I saw you were on and off last night during the Asian session. Figured you were having issues.

Does the govt. regulate the internet in Jamaica? If not, we might have a nice opportunity there.
Yes... the goverment regulates almost everything and taxes the hell of it! There are 4 big companies that provide the service currently. I just started a contract with a second company.. I will let you know if things improve.
Patience + Discipline - Greed = Success
  • #262
  • Feb 20, 2009 11:08am Feb 20, 2009 11:08am
Quoting eohater
Does this look familiar? Notice the candles circled in red. Automatice go short on the next candle without question or fear. She yielded some nice pippage on this move.

Notice the candle circled in green. Automatice to long on the next candle. Why? I will always go back against the grain when she closes across the 15m 35sma/50ema with a tight SL around 25-30 pips. Once my entry candle closes, I move my SL to +3 and manage the trade.

I unfortunately did not get either one of these trades. But the setups were there and I hope many of you did.

Trade...
Interesting trades, both of them. I took both, except I took them on the close of the next candle. In both cases it was as confirmation of the pattern.

Both worked out ok, and I've found that if you see something valid on the 15M chart, it's good for a fair few pips that you can afford to wait for the confirmation.
  • #263
  • Feb 20, 2009 11:53am Feb 20, 2009 11:53am
Quoting daffy
Interesting trades, both of them. I took both, except I took them on the close of the next candle. In both cases it was as confirmation of the pattern.

Both worked out ok, and I've found that if you see something valid on the 15M chart, it's good for a fair few pips that you can afford to wait for the confirmation.
Nothing wrong with waiting for confirmation! I'm willing to take the trades without waiting for the next candle to confirm. It reduces my drawdown and increases my pippage, but again, nothing wrong with waiting for the confirmation.
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #264
  • Feb 20, 2009 12:49pm Feb 20, 2009 12:49pm
Quoting alkhoura
hi all
i have entered ths could i know why was it wrong?
I don't have MT4 available or the time right now to further verify, but I would not have entered that trade when you did. EO, FYI the trade was entered at 4311 Short and then continued on up, so it was the wrong direction. I see the spinning top you entered on and that is not something even as a newb, that I would do. If there was indecision, which the spinning top does show, you should still wait for some sort of confirmation, especially after a decent trend like the one on the chart. Indecision does not mean reversal, it means indecision. So in my opinion, you should have waited for confirmation. If you had then you would have missed going the wrong way and taking a loss. I'm learning to be patient and try to avoid situations like that. Remember, there will ALWAYS be another trade, ALWAYS.

So, if you still wanted to be aggressive and enter on the spinning top, you should have set your SL just barely above the top wick. If it went above, you would have taken a loss, but a smaller one. No big deal, right ? Honestly, I would have been looking at 1 or 4 hour chart for resistance before I took that trade anyways, and I would bet EO would agree, since that is what his strategy is mainly based on(though I'm simplifying). I would almost place money on it that you would have seen a resistance around 4357(maybe 50MA or 62, I don't remember off the top of my head).

Anyways, just my take. I haven't traded in almost two weeks now, as I'm immersing myself in PA knowledge. Just thought I would share a bit and contribute.

Good luck, as usual, all!
therealisttruest (FF wouldn't let me put my full ID because of length)
  • #265
  • Feb 20, 2009 1:28pm Feb 20, 2009 1:28pm
thanx therealist i got all that my friend it was my 1st one and i got it now
and thanx very much for your reply
and a special thanx for eohater for this great thread
  • #266
  • Feb 20, 2009 1:32pm Feb 20, 2009 1:32pm
Quoting therealist
I don't have MT4 available or the time right now to further verify, but I would not have entered that trade when you did. EO, FYI the trade was entered at 4311 Short and then continued on up, so it was the wrong direction. I see the spinning top you entered on and that is not something even as a newb, that I would do. If there was indecision, which the spinning top does show, you should still wait for some sort of confirmation, especially after a decent trend like the one on the chart. Indecision does not mean reversal, it means indecision. So in...
Been studying up on PA also.....how has it been going for you???

HOLLA
  • #267
  • Feb 20, 2009 1:47pm Feb 20, 2009 1:47pm
Quoting Turtle
Been studying up on PA also.....how has it been going for you???

HOLLA

It's been going slowly, but going. I've been gathering videos lately on the 'net. I think it will fit my style of learning better than reading, plus I don't have much time. Really, taking a break from trading has been really good for me too. I've wanted to trade, but I've been sort of falling apart lately overall. It's a seasonal thing for me, here in Alaska. The darkness plays with my mental state, usually at the height of winter right before it starts to get better. So I haven't been very focused, but at least I'm learning more how to stay out of trading when I'm not in a good mood.

Really PA was working for my trading already, when I was patient and following what I know. The problem is that I was punting wildly at almost any signal, like a spinning top, and then not following any concept of money mgmt. So if I took a loss, it was based on how much I could stand emotionally, not based on a set of criteria. So a big advantage that I am learning lately is to base SL on support or resistance of previous candlesticks. Combine that with other targets(for me I like Fibs, and pivots, along with EO's MAs) and I think I am developing a great strategy. My goal is to begin to reach my daily goals on demo, before trading live again. So hopefully in a couple weeks I'll be much closer to reaching that 100 pip a day quota. Sounds like you guys are still doing well. I'll continue to follow and learn, of course.
therealisttruest (FF wouldn't let me put my full ID because of length)
  • #268
  • Feb 23, 2009 11:25am Feb 23, 2009 11:25am
Hi Eo ... great thread,

This looks ready for a move ... how would you interpret this with all the moving averages coming together ?
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  • #269
  • Feb 23, 2009 11:59am Feb 23, 2009 11:59am
EO,

Here are the 4 charts - I went short.

I love the way you have arranged the charts but I am struggling to find in the thread your 'rules' about how to treat the different MA levels of S/R.

Any help would be appreciated.

Thanks

Willowgal
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  • #270
  • Feb 24, 2009 12:12am Feb 24, 2009 12:12am
Quoting Willowgal
Hi Eo ... great thread,

This looks ready for a move ... how would you interpret this with all the moving averages coming together ?
Hi Willowgal,

Thank you for the compliment!

When the ma's are coming together were going into a stage where she's going to range, consolidate, then shift or continue it's latest direction. Now is when I will play the ma's like a tennis match. For example. When the ma's are flat on the 15m and we're below the 15m 35sma/50ema, I'm looking for a long to get ontop of the ma's and vice versa. PA leads the way. She can sometimes range 100 pips and with the right entries, you can grab 100 up and 100 down. Key times that I notice the ma's going flat are when we're changing sessions. The key ma's that I'm looking for crosses on are the 15m 35sma and 50ema. When I see these ma's cross and start to point in a certain direction, now I know I need to be looking for plays in the direction their pointing. I like it when they have a hard point in one direction over another. Think of a clock and if their pointing towards 2, then I want longs off the 15m 5/10. If their pointing towards 5, then I want shorts off the 15m 5/10.

Hope this helps, if not, let me know and I'll try and explain with more of a visual.

Trade well!
EO
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #271
  • Feb 24, 2009 12:23am Feb 24, 2009 12:23am
Quoting Willowgal
EO,

Here are the 4 charts - I went short.

I love the way you have arranged the charts but I am struggling to find in the thread your 'rules' about how to treat the different MA levels of S/R.

Any help would be appreciated.

Thanks

Willowgal
Good job on your short today! If you held onto it, you made some nice pippage.

Remember the ma's are nothing more than floating support/resistance. If I'm entering a trade based upon the 4h and I'm watching the 1h and 15m charts for entry, then I'm targeting my ma's off the 4h chart for final profit taking. The lower time frame ma's are as well used for taking profit along the way. We have to clear the lower time frame ma's before we can make the higher time frames. I'll move my SL along the way keeping the ma's as my guide. I like to use the 15m 21 ema as my guide for keeping my SL back to avoid from getting hit.

Keep up the good work and please feel free to post anytime.
EO
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #272
  • Feb 24, 2009 1:31am Feb 24, 2009 1:31am
Dear EO
I have been following your thread and cable update for a while. I am learning every day from you, infinity and all the wonderful bunch at cable thread.
It will take sometime to sink in. I really appreciate your efforts and would like to take your offer of some visuals with your set up.
Thanks a million.
Quoting eohater
Good job on your short today!...
  • #273
  • Edited 4:23am Feb 24, 2009 2:18am | Edited 4:23am
Quoting eohater
Hi Willowgal,

Thank you for the compliment!

When the ma's are coming together were going into a stage where she's going to range, consolidate, then shift or continue it's latest direction....
Hi EO,

Thanks for the explanation but yes, I could do with a more visual explanation - the 'clock analogy' was not clear to me

It would be very useful if you could post your 4 charts at the start of a day and point out what scenario you would be looking for to get into a trade in the near future.

Thanks again
  • #274
  • Feb 24, 2009 2:42pm Feb 24, 2009 2:42pm
Quoting Willowgal
Hi EO,

Thanks for the explanation but yes, I could do with a more visual explanation - the 'clock analogy' was not clear to me

It would be very useful if you could post your 4 charts at the start of a day and point out what scenario you would be looking for to get into a trade in the near future.

Thanks again
Willow - I think what EO means in reference to the clock is this:
For an upward trend/long bias, if the moving averages are sloping about the same as the minute hand when it points at the 2 (ie 10 minutes past the hour) then he'd be looking to stick with long trades as moving averages are pointing pretty sharp upwards.

When the moving average lines slope is about the same as the minute hand on a clock pointing at the 5 (ie 25 minutes past the hour) he'd be looking at short trades as moving averages are pointing pretty sharply downward.

My understanding (EO please correct me if I'm missing it) is that when these conditions are met (slope of MA's is per the clock analogy above) look to trade the bounces off the smaller EMAs (ie 5/10/21) in the direction of the trend. So if EA's point steeply up, look for longs, and if EA's point sharply down look for short positions.
  • #275
  • Feb 25, 2009 7:27am Feb 25, 2009 7:27am
I am trying to learn your setups and try very hard to study price action.. Please excuse me for not knowing how to post from my platform so I can show you but i wanted to know if you would have gone long on the 7 15 am candle (est) on the 15 min.... or even at the close of that 1h candle?
Thank you so much for your dedication in teaching others....
  • #276
  • Feb 25, 2009 8:28am Feb 25, 2009 8:28am
Quoting nyjetfan
Willow - I think what EO means in reference to the clock is this:
For an upward trend/long bias, if the moving averages are sloping about the same as the minute hand when it points at the 2 (ie 10 minutes past the hour) then he'd be looking to stick with long trades as moving averages are pointing pretty sharp upwards.

When the moving average lines slope is about the same as the minute hand on a clock pointing at the 5 (ie 25 minutes past the hour) he'd be looking at short trades as moving averages are pointing pretty sharply downward.

My understanding...
That is exactly right! I'll post some charts when I get an opportunity showing what I mean for a visual effect.
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #277
  • Feb 25, 2009 8:30am Feb 25, 2009 8:30am
Quoting rt4x
I am trying to learn your setups and try very hard to study price action.. Please excuse me for not knowing how to post from my platform so I can show you but i wanted to know if you would have gone long on the 7 15 am candle (est) on the 15 min.... or even at the close of that 1h candle?
Thank you so much for your dedication in teaching others....
Not a problem about being able to post charts. I would have went long after the close of the 15m candle I have circled in green. As well, I would have went long on the close of the 1h candle. Both were a green light for me to go long. SL would have been 25pips lower than the wick of the previous candle. This trade is going against the grain and requires you to move your SL to green ASAP and follow the candles for your exit.
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Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #278
  • Feb 25, 2009 8:45am Feb 25, 2009 8:45am
Quoting eohater
Not a problem about being able to post charts. I would have went long after the close of the 15m candle I have circled in green. As well, I would have went long on the close of the 1h candle. Both were a green light for me to go long. SL would have been 25pips lower than the wick of the previous candle. This trade is going against the grain and requires you to move your SL to green ASAP and follow the candles for your exit.
Thank you for your response....now waiting for another buy signal...

Well....i missed the sell after the touch of the 10 ema on 15 min....
  • #279
  • Feb 25, 2009 8:49am Feb 25, 2009 8:49am
Quoting rt4x
Thank you for your response....now waiting for another buy signal...

Well....i missed the sell after the touch of the 10 ema on 15 min....
Have patience! I'm looking for a buy myself. Not the best PA, our current 1h candle is major bearish. We might be having a down day today, in which case, I'll be looking for a sell. Notice on your 15m chart the level created 437x, we could have a retracement to there for more continued downward movement.
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #280
  • Feb 25, 2009 9:00am Feb 25, 2009 9:00am
Quoting eohater
Have patience! I'm looking for a buy myself. Not the best PA, our current 1h candle is major bearish. We might be having a down day today, in which case, I'll be looking for a sell. Notice on your 15m chart the level created 437x, we could have a retracement to there for more continued downward movement.
This would take us to revisit yesterday lows...and to touch the 10 ema once again

How do you tell if this turning around to visit that area would mark a reversal for the day or just a retracement to continue down movement? Is there an actual way of telling?
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