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- #67,088
- Feb 20, 2009 4:40am Feb 20, 2009 4:40am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Self-proclaimed psychologist | 3,179 Posts
another friday us market session is upon us soon....the indexes pretty much at the lows set in november..even lower. To top it all off...this is expirations week and that means locking in profits is what will happen soon. How does this affect the eur/usd...it creates a long bias until market close at least for me..i just see no reason to break the range when most are trying to lock in profits. on that note...heres my technical analysis
as i have mentioned many times now..these days double tops and double bottoms are very common. In fact, I find it odd when i dont see one as was the case after we hit 1.2760. I found the answer by looking at the 4hour timeframe and came to conclude one thing. We are possibly staging a reversal all the way back to 1.3000. A W seems to be taking shape at the low with neckline at 1.2760 and the left shoulder at 1.2535 or so. Now we all know a W is usually a double bottom but pa doesnt always develop so beautifully , sometimes the right shoulder doesnt quite retest the low and sometimes it pushes through the low only to prove later it was a false break down. In this case, i think it is very possible we have started the formation of the right shoulder at 1.2580 and we will be headed nowhere but up from here. Of course, a retest of 1.2535 could occur at any time which is why any long position has to be monitored carefully. If this truly develops into a W, the potential target of 1.3000 is based on same principles as h&s, distance from neckline to tip of lowest shoulder equals the distance that pa will move when neckline gets broken.
Sidenotes:
-note the example on the left side of another potential W. note that once the neckline was broken, it was a false break up and price reversed quickly cancelling the pattern. a W just like h&s cannot be confirmed until neckline is broken and retest proves it has become support
-it is friday...most fridays are crazy...this looks to simple to be true, prepare the unexpected
-the us stock market could collapse later, if we break 1.2500, any longs should be taken with a grain of salt.
-the gray lines represent what has been strong resistance/support this week
good pippin all
as i have mentioned many times now..these days double tops and double bottoms are very common. In fact, I find it odd when i dont see one as was the case after we hit 1.2760. I found the answer by looking at the 4hour timeframe and came to conclude one thing. We are possibly staging a reversal all the way back to 1.3000. A W seems to be taking shape at the low with neckline at 1.2760 and the left shoulder at 1.2535 or so. Now we all know a W is usually a double bottom but pa doesnt always develop so beautifully , sometimes the right shoulder doesnt quite retest the low and sometimes it pushes through the low only to prove later it was a false break down. In this case, i think it is very possible we have started the formation of the right shoulder at 1.2580 and we will be headed nowhere but up from here. Of course, a retest of 1.2535 could occur at any time which is why any long position has to be monitored carefully. If this truly develops into a W, the potential target of 1.3000 is based on same principles as h&s, distance from neckline to tip of lowest shoulder equals the distance that pa will move when neckline gets broken.
Sidenotes:
-note the example on the left side of another potential W. note that once the neckline was broken, it was a false break up and price reversed quickly cancelling the pattern. a W just like h&s cannot be confirmed until neckline is broken and retest proves it has become support
-it is friday...most fridays are crazy...this looks to simple to be true, prepare the unexpected
-the us stock market could collapse later, if we break 1.2500, any longs should be taken with a grain of salt.
-the gray lines represent what has been strong resistance/support this week
good pippin all
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
- #67,091
- Feb 20, 2009 5:09am Feb 20, 2009 5:09am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Self-proclaimed psychologist | 3,179 Posts
Agreed, tried to explain the falling wedge back on post 66098 and the imminent break to the top side. It is also the only pair not to close Sundays gap down at 1.2880.
the gap, honestly im not even looking at it anymore. well get back up there the only question is when. right now im watching that 1.2625 level like a hawk. Lets not forget the range most of this week was 1.2625 to 1.2565. If we dont break 1.2625 decisively now as we are right on top of it...a return to 1.2565 is very likely..that would hurt stop me out of whats left of my long at 1.2575 haha. to close it all or not..hmm
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
- #67,092
- Feb 20, 2009 5:12am Feb 20, 2009 5:12am
the gap, honestly im not even looking at it anymore. well get back up there the only question is when. right now im watching that 1.2625 level like a hawk. Lets not forget the range most of this week was 1.2625 to 1.2565. If we dont break 1.2625 decisively now as we are right on top of it...a return to 1.2565 is very likely..that would hurt stop me out of whats left of my long at 1.2575 haha. to close it all or not..hmm
Trade what you see. Write what you feel
- #67,093
- Feb 20, 2009 5:16am Feb 20, 2009 5:16am
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: RCMM (Risk Analysis Money Manager) | 2,556 Posts
- #67,099
- Feb 20, 2009 5:34am Feb 20, 2009 5:34am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Self-proclaimed psychologist | 3,179 Posts
Just two questions guys regarding PA and the gap:
1) why do you think passing 1.2625 we go north? I only see it as a normal retrace after the yesterday fall from 1.2760
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
- #67,100
- Feb 20, 2009 5:35am Feb 20, 2009 5:35am
- | Joined May 2008 | Status: Nudist | 1,098 Posts
I trade gaps every week when they show up. Sometimes they close within a few hours amd others take a week or so. I was just mentioning it as FYI. Bottom line is I make plenty of Jack $$$$ trading these gaps.
AJ
