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  • #66,401
  • Edited 5:03pm Feb 18, 2009 4:55pm | Edited 5:03pm
To go along with the Daily chart I just posted, I have some separate thoughts about all that as well.

With the 2500 level just tapped and the hesitant PA like we currently have, I'm not too excited about sustained lows below that 2550 up to a'rd 2800 level that i posted about in mid January. Rumored "Events" in the making could easily change my mind about that tho, and I'm basically a bear on a hair trigger these days, and I'm pretty nervous about any mid or longer term longs for now. ((See your nearest weekly chart))

I also said that 2800 might be a little low for the upside and 2900 might be more realistic. With the way price hung above 2850 on the way down, that 2850/2900 level may well be more accurate... but I'd have to see how price acts from the bottom side up instead of from the topside down to say further. ((see note below))

I still like the 2550/2800 "Buoyancy Level" I've drawn on several charts over the last month or so, and will trade accordingly until I have a reason not to.

Added: In the interest of keeping it simple, let me split the difference on the upside range and just say 2850 for now...
FUBAR...
  • #66,402
  • Feb 18, 2009 4:59pm Feb 18, 2009 4:59pm
i think were on the same page until something is proven wrong...
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #66,403
  • Feb 18, 2009 5:01pm Feb 18, 2009 5:01pm
Be careful with longs


See this article

"...some of the 16 euro nations are “getting into difficulties” and may need help..."


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...refer=currency
/ ... clarifying decisions ... /
  • #66,404
  • Feb 18, 2009 5:03pm Feb 18, 2009 5:03pm
Quoting Big Wave Rider
Hey Sun Trader. I didn't know you spoke Floridian.

Hows life down there?
Mostly sunny - what else.

How are the slopes treating you.
  • #66,405
  • Feb 18, 2009 5:07pm Feb 18, 2009 5:07pm
Quoting walb99
Be careful with longs


See this article

"...some of the 16 euro nations are “getting into difficulties” and may need help..."


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...refer=currency
all news is bad!!! *L* germany may do better ditching the euro..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #66,406
  • Feb 18, 2009 5:13pm Feb 18, 2009 5:13pm
Quoting realjumper
Ahh the Steve Miller Band.....now I can't get the song out of my head!!!!!

Thank you all for answering my post. I'm happy that I didn't piss anyone off with my newbie questions.

What I have just learned is that there IS no right or wrong way.....no one has a better or worse way of trading.....if it works for the individual, no matter how it works....it WORKS!!!

Thank you all
Not at all, to me anyway. The only way to learn is to ask.

But understand that the majority of new, inexperienced traders are short term or scalper orientated. And that the majority of those traders will turn out to be losers after a short while.

It is not rocket science to figure out why.
  • #66,407
  • Feb 18, 2009 5:22pm Feb 18, 2009 5:22pm
just got back and noticed that my earlier entry wasnt too bad. if any bull attempt is going to be made this whole area below 1.2555 is good buying territory in my opinion (this is by no means a recommendation it is just an opinion). It also seems the earlier mentioned possibility #1 will take place with a nice W in the formation and neckline around 1.2565. Of course as any W or M or any h&s goes, the pattern is not solid until neckline is decisively broken. If that break occurs, the high of the previous range is still 1.2625 is what im looking at. Note that at this time that would break the upper wall of this most recent downtrend that began sunday. On the other hand a break of 1.2500 to the downside may bring big time shorts into play towards much lower levels. It's just a waiting game now and view yesterday as a pure consolidation day, consolidation before the next move, whether up or down time will tell. My bias is long for the time being with targets as high as 1.2850 (note the black line way up in the chart that is the lower wall of the previous triangle that i posted). Careful pippin all, buying is dangerous, selling is dangerous, scalping is king. To conclude, even though me and ak4x have different methods, I have pretty much the same outlook.

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Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #66,408
  • Feb 18, 2009 5:50pm Feb 18, 2009 5:50pm
Hazarding a small short from 2559 (Daily pivot) down to a'rd M2 (2521) just below the Central at 2528...

The drop right before the close and the subsequent run up from the Central at the open seemed "contrived" to me and lacks any sense of follow thru, based on the 6m. The counter trend miss of the DP on the first shot got me thinking, and the fast hit on the next try is my signal for this trade.

I also have the QP for the M2/S1 zone right at the 00 figure, so I may shoot for that as well if the PA supports it, and if it looks real exciting, I'll let it run.

Of course, I may get stopped out too... ((sl just above M3))
FUBAR...
  • #66,409
  • Feb 18, 2009 5:51pm Feb 18, 2009 5:51pm
Previous resistance line could act as support, plus daily divergence on swissy.
Just a thought.
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  • #66,410
  • Feb 18, 2009 5:55pm Feb 18, 2009 5:55pm
Quoting MackS10
Previous resistance line could act as support, plus daily divergence on swissy.
Just a thought.
same here
swissy will go south like crazy just the matter of hours now.
  • #66,411
  • Feb 18, 2009 5:58pm Feb 18, 2009 5:58pm
Watch for a major move lower in the dollar over the coming weeks.
  • #66,412
  • Feb 18, 2009 6:01pm Feb 18, 2009 6:01pm
Quoting DownRiverTrader
Watch for a major move lower in the dollar over the coming weeks.
Why??
  • #66,413
  • Feb 18, 2009 6:03pm Feb 18, 2009 6:03pm
Quoting DownRiverTrader
Watch for a major move lower in the dollar over the coming weeks.
Hey DRT, wondered where you got to. Good to see you around mate, your trading style is admirable and love reading ya posts.
  • #66,414
  • Feb 18, 2009 6:08pm Feb 18, 2009 6:08pm
Quoting 5ysfx
same here
swissy will go south like crazy just the matter of hours now.
Swissy in a rising wedge on the daily, surely does suggest down. Correlates with the falling wedge on EU.
  • #66,415
  • Feb 18, 2009 6:15pm Feb 18, 2009 6:15pm
Quoting Lizeth_doll
Im hanging there but not for longer this is eating my account totally, i need i big push-up unless to get some money back, how far you think is this going down?
Good god Liz, you're still holding that?

It can go as far as your margin call, so be careful. If we see below 1.2300, we most likely will not see 1.28 for a looooong while.

No more than 1% risk on any trade and set your stop loss!!!

You're digging your own grave otherwise.
  • #66,416
  • Feb 18, 2009 6:15pm Feb 18, 2009 6:15pm
Quoting DownRiverTrader
Watch for a major move lower in the dollar over the coming weeks.
I remember when you said a huge buy at 1.2736.
I saw that too, but then you short heavily way too soon when price around 1.3770, what happened then!?!?!? That caught me too!!!

Do you see in the coming weeks 1.3500!!
  • #66,417
  • Feb 18, 2009 6:22pm Feb 18, 2009 6:22pm
Quoting NuckingFuts
love reading ya posts.
Nothing personal, NF, but what's there to love about that post? It says nothing. Its meaningless, in fact, its worse than that - its useless. That's the second time today that bloke has posted this cryptic message. Gee - the sky is falling, the sky is falling... That post is about as useful as half the crap that gets posted on here - EUR to 2300, EUR to 3800, EUR to 5000 (usually followed by a bunch of exclamation marks and one of these silly icons http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif). Out of the blue, no explanation, no reason, no chart, nuthin' And yeah, I'm in a lousy mood. Just did my taxes and not liking at all what I have to give to Uncle... Geithner! Where are you? I need some tax advice.
  • #66,418
  • Feb 18, 2009 6:29pm Feb 18, 2009 6:29pm
Quoting Turhovach
Nothing personal, NF, but what's there to love about that post?...
Ok, so that post wasn't detailed, but read up on the dude's trading style before you open your mouth. It's unique and surely shits on most of the crap you read on here.
  • #66,419
  • Feb 18, 2009 6:33pm Feb 18, 2009 6:33pm
Quoting Turhovach
Nothing personal, NF, but what's there to love about that post?...
If he's been vouched by the almighty merlin, you know he's the real deal. The wiz don't hand em out like free samples at the supermarket.
  • #66,420
  • Feb 18, 2009 6:38pm Feb 18, 2009 6:38pm
Quoting psiholog
i fully agree on this analysis....temporary ride up followed by continued dollar strength. I dont see too much movement in any direction this month though..note that the gap is not only weekly...its also on the monthly charts..something that I have rarely seen since starting forex (at least this big) which suggests this month may be just a consolidation in the form of a small bull volume or doji, weeding out the bad and good up till now (out with the bad president, in with the good???, end of a terrible year...start of a better one??? but for who???,...
posted that when the month first started. this is in reply to what downrivertrader said. i still stand by this opinion and dont see a big move down until next month. to portray what i mean..heres a monthly chart showing the gap clearly...note that i use ibfx so the real gap may be a bit smaller or a bit bigger..not certain..but after it gets filled which means a close above 1.2800 this month most likely....starting next month well see 1.2000 or lower. If that gap does not get filled this month...then the world is coming to an end haha...just my 2 cents

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Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
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