EURUSD

I can make an attempt but it will have to wait until tomorrow.

Maybe you can make sense of what I'm trying to get at. It might have to do that today was a U.S. Holiday but the movement is really not the same as it normally is on a Monday.

EUR/USD How Low Can We Go?

In my analysis onver the weekend I had put forward a notion that we can go down to 1.10 area in EUR/USD

Attached is a chart which shows a Head/Shoulder pattern with price projection. This should be viewed in a longer time context as we will have retracements on the way.

My Support level for short term trade remains at 1.2600 - 1.2549 area

EYEING RANGE BREAK PRE ZEW] Eur/Usd opened below 1.2700 in Europe for the first time since early Dec, the highlight of preceding sessions trade being the breach of the option plays at that mark and 1.2675/80. The Usd opens broadly much firmer ahead of the first-tier German ZEW to come. See page.

My long term view is still very dollar negative but what can you do when there is bottom of bollinger bands AND long term trendline AND 20 day donchian channel pierced at the same bar [on daily of course].

Too good position not to short couple of days [or until my stop hits]. This is one of those positions that I would call "high probability".

Does anyone have any info WTF was that gap during trading hours yesterday? Lloyds?

edit: here is something http://market-ticker.denninger.net/a...n-Process.html

edit2: IB feed doesn't show gap so the price just probably moved too fast for alpari.

i'm looking for the 2600 level at the moment

TPed while I slept @ 2725...got in @ 2842 instead of 2850 on fri.
All out for now (e/u). see some support @ 12548...would like to see a bounce there.

I took a small long at 1.2605, hopefully I won't have my head handed to me by the time this posts.

Yeah, but even a low liquidity move tends to return to something nearer where it started from... this is starting to look a little what i call "relentless", and may well fall into a "sea change" category.

Whether it is to clear out all the longs before a huge bull move taking out the shorts on the way back up (not imo), or a genuine bear move to the next step down (which is still a little abrupt even tho I've been expecting it for some time) it's eerie either way.

If it quickly follows thru below (again not anticipating that atm) I've got a preliminary 2420/40 level on the horizon. This all caught me a little short and I'm having to play catch up and blow the dust off some of the charts... Bottom line is we need at least another session or so to firm things up. Timing is the question here, as always.

No straight lines as a rule, but still we're in strange times.

1.2585 - 2557 looks to be best area to get in long.

1st chart is demand zones from 12/4/08 the 1st one was 2666-2625 broken thru and this next one is 2602 - 2548.
2nd chart shows fib expansions with 123.6 and 138.2 stopping @ 2585 and 2557 respectively.

Looking for reversal PA there to take long.

[RIKSBANK]'s Svensson is on the wires and talking zero rates and inflation targeting. Svensson says it is not 'particularly' likely Sweden to have zero interest rates, but authorities should still be prepared for the eventuality. He admits it is 'natural' zero rates are a topic of debate given the rate has already been slashed to 1.00% and the CB intimated last week they could still ease further. Svensson argues zero rates creates a danger of too low inflation expectations, and it may be necessary to lift those expectations. He says a last resort would be to devise a currency target to increase inflation expectations. On currency, the [SEK] continues to be flogged versus the Euro. A mix of a rapidly easing CB and domestic economy doom and gloom as well as heightened broader market risk aversion a real weight here. Eur/Sek already up over five big figures in Eur/Sek, last at 11.0550.


[USD/YEN] shaking off the drag of risk aversion plays now that the focus returns to fundamentals in Japan, and on top of this a much weaker political backdrop which culminated in Nakagawa's decision to resign. The sum of these parts enough to lift trade to the short term upside targets through 92.50-93.00 and so too filling the bulk of commercial selling interests. There was talk of US coupon linked linked demand out of Japan, (mulled up to Usd 3bln), but if anything this just emphasizes the overall bid for the Usd. Cross Yen selling, led by Eur/Yen at present is set to drag on upside potential in Usd/Yen. However, an extension towards 94.50-95.00 looks plausible. The first pivot the 90 day m.a at 93.32.

The fresh focus upon Eastern Europe has taken the attention away from the UK and predictably concerns about the Euro emerge to steer the greater bulk of Gbp trade into [EUR/GBP]. Hence sellers to the fore and the cross back towards 0.8900. This well within the extremes of the last week (0.8832-0.9073) though, and with a slight pick up in risk aversion there may be larger risks linked to sub 130 trade in Gbp/Yen (now 130.60), or for techs emphasis upon the 20 day m.a at 129.02. Cable basically unchanged from Monday's opening levels after leading the way last week, but given the strong upside impetus for the Dollar and fairly strong tech sell signals, the emphasis remains on tech support at 1.4052 (02 Feb low/nr 61.8% retrace). Monday's high at 1.4300, & 20 day ma. at 1.4272 to shape resistance. CPI data key at 9.30GMT see.

No harm there, if you are using a small pos
since I have the daily low @ 12601...you can use a 10 pip stop. (you are up 10 as I write this). could have picked the bottom and see 100 pips

im in a trade from 1.2808 ... how deep this is going? i should take this big lost? i should wait?

Well, I may be personally biased but I think this is a fake. I expect it to recover during the day.

The TIC purchases out of US at 15:00 GMT will be a surprise imo, just look at the graph .

hi guys

goto 1.2700 resistance

wats ur SL like again?

i could see this comming and the bears are in the lead.. my question is with all this springboard action that has been coiled up... why are we going down so slow?? is it the meeting? is it because u.s. was closed yesterday?... or is it because the supports are that strong.. i suspect the later since it happend that way in 96 and 2006... either way i thought it would of dropped or rose a few hundred pips faster then its moving..a storm is a brewing and at the moment bears are ahead ... i wouldnt be surprised if this is just round one of a bigger fight..2555 was my number to beat and then it would have to take out last years low..it aint there yet and if it doesnt get there soon the bears will punt..i still believe we are at a crossroads untill nov lows are taken out..and im still in a position opposite of the smart money but only cause i got back in after hitting a be long earlier..i made a grand total of 11 pips yesterday..

london session starts now and many times reverses action for a while... but 1.28 is quite far away for today... taking losses is not bad... because that gives you opportunities to keep trading

and 1.2700: goto 1.2500
run!
heh

can u help me? im new , i start my real account in january and this is the first time that i post here, im from soutamerica Colombia my english is not perfect so please have patiente, i take a buy with eur/usd in 1.2808 i want to know where you think is going because i cant hanging there much longer... any idea?