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  • #65,321
  • Feb 16, 2009 12:58am Feb 16, 2009 12:58am
Quoting NuckingFuts
Cannot remember the last time a true weekend gap on this pair didn't fill within the week. US being off tonight may see it take longer to fill.

I expect it to be filled at some stage this week.

While there are technically no gaps in forex, a weekend gap is when activity occurs between NY close Friday (NY time) and Aussie open Monday (Aus time).
Well, from my experience it's very probable for this gap to get filled during the day. We have 2 stops on the way now - 1.2722 & 1.2705 so there's some potential for reversal at least in the short term; plus the gap - that's why I'm bying here (not too much) and we'll see how this situation will unfold.

Oh by the way - US folks on vacation today - does Europe have a courage to go south alone?
  • #65,322
  • Feb 16, 2009 1:01am Feb 16, 2009 1:01am
Quoting T.E.Lawrence
Well, from my experience it's very probable for this gap to get filled during the day. We have 2 stops on the way now - 1.2722 & 1.2705 so there's some potential for reversal at least in the short term; plus the gap - that's why I'm bying here (not too much) and we'll see how this situation will unfold.
It generally does yes. But no US today means low liquidity, anyone with a reasonable account can move this baby. That's why low liquidity is more difficult to trade.
  • #65,323
  • Feb 16, 2009 1:06am Feb 16, 2009 1:06am
Quoting NuckingFuts
Cannot remember the last time a true weekend gap on this pair didn't fill within the week. US being off tonight may see it take longer to fill.

I expect it to be filled at some stage this week.

While there are technically no gaps in forex, a weekend gap is when activity occurs between NY close Friday (NY time) and Aussie open Monday (Aus time).
Gotta say,

I'm fond of trading and fading gaps, especially the Sunday nite/ Monday morning variety.

This one looks a little contrived and must remind that some gaps take longer than others to fill.
Sometimes a fortnight, sometimes weeks or months, but often within 24 hours or so.

My rule is that if it doesn't fill within 24 hours, I won't fade the gap when it fills.
This may mean watching patiently for the rest of the week just to see the fill
and the observing the action post-fill. Still, the bias is in favor of an eventual fill
I just don't have the rest of the month to tie up margin and gawk at the hole in the chart
until things turn around. That being said, It's obvious people are trying to long here and
it's not working yet. I'm standing aside for now, only willing to jump in on a serious test of
126 euro and 140 pound. Otherwise, I just see the risk outweighing the reward at the moment.
Shorts are still in control. It will change when it changes, but not until.
  • #65,324
  • Feb 16, 2009 1:08am Feb 16, 2009 1:08am
Quoting NuckingFuts
It generally does yes. But no US today means low liquidity, anyone with a reasonable account can move this baby. That's why low liquidity is more difficult to trade.
Ok, I'm calling Warren Buffett.
  • #65,325
  • Feb 16, 2009 1:17am Feb 16, 2009 1:17am
If you remember same happened durin thank's giving day,US banks were in holyday but USD run down all the day.
  • #65,326
  • Feb 16, 2009 1:21am Feb 16, 2009 1:21am
Quoting toshi
This one looks a little contrived and must remind that some gaps take longer than others to fill.
Sometimes a fortnight, sometimes weeks or months, but often within 24 hours or so.
In over 5 years, I cannot remember the last time this pair did not fill a weekend gap within the week.

Other pairs yes, there's gaps in geppy for example that have not been filled for years.

May be due to this pair being the most liquid pair in the market and it has that self-fulfilling prophecy effect - who knows.
  • #65,327
  • Feb 16, 2009 1:27am Feb 16, 2009 1:27am
I think we are pretty well supported on a daily chart:

http://i427.photobucket.com/albums/p...tice/daily.jpg

But when it's broken - I'm short, no question about it.
  • #65,328
  • Feb 16, 2009 1:31am Feb 16, 2009 1:31am
That said, I never trade solely on the basis that the gap will be filled. I do however wait until the gap is filled before making any medium/longer term trading decisions if I plan to trade in the opposite direction - on this pair that is.
  • #65,329
  • Edited 1:48am Feb 16, 2009 1:32am | Edited 1:48am
Quoting Legio_Ulpia
If you remember same happened durin thank's giving day,US banks were in holyday but USD run down all the day.
It's been a common practice for as far back as I can remember that
when the US banks are closed for something and the rest of the world isn't,
the Dollar either gets slammed because the supply cannot be readily absorbed without
normal day to day US operations OR the dollar goes on a wild streak north due to increased demand
while having no meaningful equalizing counter force to balance things out.
Usually, it's the former and they slam it.

However, as of late, people are keeping friendly with the USD right now,
(for how long is anyone's guess) so today it could be the other side of the argument.
Will want to see how mkt reacts without US in it's normal time slot.

It's just weird though. Every thing is weak against USD and everything else is weak against JPY, including USD.

It's just one of those days.......
  • #65,330
  • Feb 16, 2009 1:41am Feb 16, 2009 1:41am
I dunno,

There's just something about this chart with this gap that reminds me of a really hot looking girl
who didn't take a bath for a couple of days. I mean, she's still really hot, but the closer you get to her,
the more she smells. Kinda makes you think twice before getting any closer.

Then again, some like 'em kinda ripe ! Yeeesh

Euro-Cootchie Rocks ! (..and sometimes it reeks....) but it always rolls....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.PNG Size: 51 KB
  • #65,331
  • Feb 16, 2009 1:43am Feb 16, 2009 1:43am
Quoting toshi
I dunno,

There's just something about this chart with this gap that reminds me of a really hot looking girl
who didn't take a bath for a couple of days. I mean, she'sl still really hot, but the closer you get to her,
the more she smells. Kinda makes you think twice before getting any closer.

Then again, some like 'em kinda ripe ! Yeeesh
  • #65,332
  • Feb 16, 2009 1:43am Feb 16, 2009 1:43am
Well i`m long at the mo. let see where the 1h close will be
  • #65,333
  • Feb 16, 2009 2:03am Feb 16, 2009 2:03am
Morning everyone

I believe we can go south today and so i opened twice short both getting closed by TP with 14-15 pips, now i`m waiting to enter again. European stocks are opening and we may see more after a while.

Wish everyone good trade
  • #65,334
  • Feb 16, 2009 2:48am Feb 16, 2009 2:48am
Quoting dotweb.pl
Morning everyone

I believe we can go south today and so i opened twice short both getting closed by TP with 14-15 pips, now i`m waiting to enter again. European stocks are opening and we may see more after a while.

Wish everyone good trade
I went short at 1.2738 (0750 GMT), S Loss at 1.2777



Good Trading.
Good Trading. (keep it simple).
  • #65,335
  • Feb 16, 2009 2:56am Feb 16, 2009 2:56am
Suddenly, eu is limited to a 30 pip range between 1.2760 and 1.2730..
zzzzzzzzzZZZZ
  • #65,336
  • Feb 16, 2009 3:00am Feb 16, 2009 3:00am
Quoting T.E.Lawrence
Well, from my experience it's very probable for this gap to get filled during the day. We have 2 stops on the way now - 1.2722 & 1.2705 so there's some potential for reversal at least in the short term; plus the gap - that's why I'm bying here (not too much) and we'll see how this situation will unfold.

Oh by the way - US folks on vacation today - does Europe have a courage to go south alone?
Ok, I've closed that trade - + 20 pips; I'm afraid we can have a really sleepy day today.
  • #65,337
  • Feb 16, 2009 3:05am Feb 16, 2009 3:05am
rate return to close 1.2800/20 resistance range
{Promotion Removed}
  • #65,338
  • Feb 16, 2009 3:45am Feb 16, 2009 3:45am
I am curious about today. Anyway.

I have a long limit buy at 2788 with a t/p at 2820.

Stop is in place as well.

Anyway the way I see it is that if it moves in my direction and takes profit successfully it may bounce off the 20 and head down again back to support at 2786 OR it will keep going until we bridge the gap at 2850.

After that I'm not sure.

If my initial limit buy does not get triggered then we will be going lower than the current day's low at 2726.
  • #65,339
  • Feb 16, 2009 3:57am Feb 16, 2009 3:57am
[08:57 EUR/USD: Pivoting 1.2750 As Risk Aversion Increases] London, February 16th. Early European trading has seen EUR/USD steady near the 1.2750 mark, with spot seemingly happy to pivot this level in the short-term. Risk aversion is higher into the new week, highlighted by the move higher in the UBS Risk Aversion Index - hitting 1.23 today against the 1.10 Friday reading.
However, selling strength is said to be preferred - with the Dollar likely to remain supported in the short-run following the slew of negative news out of Europe. Add into the equation the increase in USD demand from higher commodity prices and the likelihood of a US $787Bln stimulus plan and the options down at 1.2700 will remain targeted by bears.
Bids trail from the 1.2727 intraday lows, through the 1.2725 intraday expiry level (^^^^2369^), to the figure - where various options are said to reside. 1.27/35 DNT"s and simple barriers are both seen at the figure, while into the 1.26s and some note 1.2680/1.3680 DNT"s. Also decent stops are layered in below 1.2690 that could fuel any further losses should the Euro remain pressured.
  • #65,340
  • Feb 16, 2009 4:05am Feb 16, 2009 4:05am
[Options Maturity Calendar] [>>>^^^^2370^]
Monday 16th Tuesday 17th Wednesday 18th Thursday 19th Friday 20th
EUR/USD USD/JPY EUR/TRY EUR/USD USD/JPY
1.2725 - 150M 87.00 - 300M 2.00 - 200M 1.2960 - 150M 92.00 - 200M
1.2740 - 150M 88.00 - 200M 1.2300 - 700M
1.2980 - 200M EUR/USD EUR/USD 1.3185 - 600M CABLE
1.3020 - 150M 1.2680 - 150M 1.2585 - 150M 1.2350 - 200M 1.4885
1.3050 - 200M GBP/USD 1.2600 - 200M 1.2500 - 200M
1.3100 - 150M 1.3900 - 100M 1.3310 - 200M 1.2650 - 250M
1.2200 - 250M 1.5100 - 100M 1.2760 - 200M 1.3050 - 250M
USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/JPY CABLE EUR/SEK
89.10 - 150M 1.0900 - 100M 88.00 - 150M 1.4000 - 100M 10.50 - 150M
90.00 - 200M AUD/USD 91.60 - 200M USD/JPY EUR/USD
AUD/USD 0.6725 - 100M AUD/JPY 87/93 DNT 1.3400 - 150M
0.6720 - 100M 0.7385 - 100M 89.95 - 100M
0.7985 - 100M EUR/JPY AUD/USD
120.00 - 150M .6445 - 100M
USD/CAD 0.6860 - 100M
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